EURUSD broke down hard out of the 1.1500-1.1620 range, sliding to a fresh 2-month low at 1.1417 as the hawkish Fed dot-plot repricing powered a broad USD breakout. ATR(14) has expanded sharply on the impulse leg lower, with price below both EMAs and lower highs intact. A shallow bounce off 1.1417 is underway but caps below the broken 1.1500 round number.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1528, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1500 would ease the downside read
Failure to hold 1.1417 opens the path toward the 1.1400 round number
EZ flash PMIs Tue and Lagarde Mon could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, breakout to 2-month lows.
EUR/USD broke down hard through 1.1500 to print two-month lows near 1.1417, extending a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence as a hawkish FOMC and rebuilt USD longs drove the recoupling theme. The slide is one-directional with EMA20 and EMA50 capping above price, and RSI now sits oversold, signalling the move is stretched into the 1.14/1.15 floor flagged as the summer range base. ATR(14) has expanded sharply as the trend extends.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1400, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1400 confirms a fresh lower low and breaks the cited range floor
Reclaim above 1.1500 round level would unwind the breakout read
Lagarde speeches Mon and Tue HCOB PMIs could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has rolled over hard from the 1.1620 area to fresh two-month lows near 1.1418 as a hawkish FOMC hold repriced Fed hike odds and lifted the dollar broadly. Structure is cleanly bearish with stacked lower highs and lower lows, and ATR(14) expansion confirms the trend is extending rather than chopping. The final bar bounced off 1.14175 but price remains well below both EMAs.
EURUSD is in a clear H4 downtrend, accelerating through the 1.1500 summer floor flagged by ING as the hawkish-Fed dollar recoupled with rate differentials. Price prints a fresh 2-month low at 1.14415, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the sharp break of 1.1500 confirming the lower-low structure. ATR remains elevated, consistent with an expanding trend rather than compression.
Support: 1.14415, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1500
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15000 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.14415 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.14 psych level
German PPI and ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone) today could shift this read
S&P Global PMIs Jun 23 are the next major dollar test
EURUSD broke the 1.1478 two-month low and accelerated lower after the hawkish Fed hold drove a broad dollar bid, leaving price at 1.1461 against the 1.14/1.15 summer floor. Structure is a clean downtrend — lower highs since the 1.1686 peak and a decisive close beneath the prior range base — with ATR(14) expanding as the move extends. The 1.1478 prior support now caps as resistance, with 1.15013 the next reference above.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.15013, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1450 opens the path toward the 1.14 summer floor
Reclaim of 1.1478 would ease the downside break
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers (Lane x2) could shift this read
Clean downtrend on H4: price has carved lower highs and lower lows and accelerated through the 1.1478 two-month low after a hawkish Fed hold drove the dollar bid. ATR(14) has expanded on the latest leg, with closes pinned near 1.1461 and a fresh low at 1.14509. Price trades well below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are sloping lower.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Sustained acceptance below 1.14509 opens the path to the 1.14/1.15 summer floor
An H4 close back above 1.1478 would neutralise the range-break read
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers (Lane) could shift this read