EUR/USD broke the multi-week 1.155–1.162 range to the downside this week, printing two-month lows near 1.1453 after the hawkish FOMC hold and firmer US data recoupled the dollar with rates. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the March swing low at 1.1411 the next reference under the range floor. The chain of lower highs from the April peak at 1.18488 keeps the structure heavy.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1619
What it said to watch
Daily close back above 1.1619 prior high would neutralise the range break
Loss of 1.1411 march low confirms a fresh lower low
German PPI Fri and ECB speakers could shift the floor read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 35 · price 1.14809
Lower highs since mid-April, testing 1.14 base.
EUR/USD has spent four months ranging roughly 1.14–1.18, and the latest leg down from the mid-April 1.1849 high has dragged price to a fresh 2-month low at 1.1478, accelerated by last week's hawkish Fed hold. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with the averages rolling over, and is now pressing the 1.14/1.15 floor that contained the early-March selloff near 1.1410. Daily RSI near 35 reflects the down-cycle without yet hitting oversold.
Support: 1.1478, 1.1410
Resistance: 1.1620
What it said to watch
D1 close below 1.1478 opens the lower 1.14 handle toward 1.1410
Reclaim of 1.1620 needed to question the down-leg
German PPI Fri and ECB speakers could shift this read
EURUSD has chopped within a broad 1.1410–1.1850 range since February. The pre-FOMC bounce stalled at the 1.1620 swing high, then Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold drove a sharp break through the 1.1550 pivot, returning price to the lower third of the range and below both EMAs. The chain of lower highs off the mid-April 1.1850 peak underlines the corrective tone.
Support: 1.1475, 1.1410
Resistance: 1.1550, 1.1620
What it said to watch
D1 close below 1.1475 (march low) opens the path toward the 1.1410 feb low
Reclaim of the 1.1550 broken pivot would neutralise the FOMC breakdown
S&P PMIs (Jun 23) and Core PCE (Jun 25) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD turned lower from the mid-April 1.1849 peak, carving a chain of lower highs through May and June. The hawkish Fed reset drove this week's sharp break below the 1.1550 pivot down to 1.1475, before a doji clawed price back above 1.1500. Price sits below a falling EMA(50), the swing-trend filter, with the recovery off the lows looking corrective.
Support: 1.1475, 1.1410
Resistance: 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1630
What it said to watch
D1 close below 1.1475 march low opens fresh downside toward the 1.1410 swing low
Reclaim of 1.1550 pivot, then 1.1600 pre-fomc reference, would neutralise the range break
German PPI Fri and US PMIs Jun 23 could materially shift this read