20:48 UTC
Downtrend since Q1 2026, price below falling EMA(50) · RSI 36 · price 1.12301
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.2083 Jan high; prior range floor at 1.1324 broken.
The trend has been down since the late-January 2026 high at 1.2083, with lower highs at 1.1849 in April and the 1.1711 aug high. The late-September break below the 1.1324 june low ended the 2025–H1 2026 range. Price sits roughly 300 pips below a now-declining W1 ema50 near 1.1526, and RSI near 36 is weak but not oversold. The 1.1711 aug high lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the Jan-Oct fib leg. French spread stress has kept the euro heavy even as broad USD softness slowed the slide. That leaves the 1.1113 swing low and the 1.1065 2025 low as the multi-quarter floor, with the 1.1000 round number beneath.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1065, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1324, 1.1526, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 1.1113 swing low and the 1.1065 2025 low exposes the 1.1000 round number
- Weekly close back above the 1.1324 june low would turn the range break into a false break
- Recapture of the W1 ema50 near 1.1526 and the lower-highs trendline is needed to challenge the downtrend read
- Friday's flash PMIs, the Oct 29 ECB decision, next week's Fed and a fresh French spread shock could materially shift this read