19:01 UTC
Downtrend since Q1 2026 high, extended below EMA50 · RSI 35 · price 1.12082
Lower highs from 1.2083; range floor at 1.1324 broken in Sep-Oct.
EUR/USD has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 peak at 1.2083, with a descending trendline capping the April (1.1849) and August (1.1711) lower highs. September's slide broke the 1.1324-1.1353 prior lows that had floored the 1.13-1.18 range since mid-2025, and this week's swing low at 1.1113 is a 16-month low. Price sits roughly 450 pips under a now-declining EMA50 near 1.1536, while this week's bounce reflects an AI-driven USD pullback rather than euro demand, with the market already pricing around 75bp of ECB hikes.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1065, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1350, 1.1536, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back above the 1.1350 prior lows would put the range break at risk of becoming a false break
- Failure to hold the 1.1113 swing low exposes the 1.1065 2025 low and the 1.1000 psych level
- A recovery to the 1.1536 ema50 is the regime test; holding below it keeps the macro downtrend intact
- The 61.8% retracement of the jan-oct decline lines up with the 1.1711 lower high and the descending trendline
- RSI is at 34.5; a print below 30 would be the first weekly oversold reading in this window
- Fed hike repricing and AI risk sentiment drive the USD side. ECB speakers on Mon, ZEW on Tue and US PMIs on Fri could shift the weekly close