Lower highs since 1.1410; false break at 1.1113 reversed, capped under 1.1285.
The lower-high sequence from 1.1410 was interrupted this week. Wednesday's false break to a 1.1113 16-month low reversed sharply as USD sold off on AI-equity jitters and a long-end Treasury rally, and the rebound cleared the 1.1243 lower high. Price is now capped below the 1.1269 week high and the 1.1285 swing high, EMA20 has turned back above EMA50, and ATR(14) is moderate near 34 pips. The steep rebound line off the low gave way on the latest bar, which puts the ema50 and the 38.2% rebound fib near 1.1205 in focus.
Support: 1.1205, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1340/50 area
Failure to hold the 1.1188 higher low would put the 1.1113 16m low back in play
Friday weekly close relative to 1.1285 decides whether the rebound registers as a weekly reversal
ECB's Lane and Elderson on Mon and ZEW on Tue could shift the EUR tone; US S&P Global PMIs on Fri Oct 23 are the main USD catalyst
Lower highs / lower lows since 1.1495; rebound has reclaimed the 1.1241/43 lower-high cluster.
EURUSD is still in a lower-high, lower-low downtrend from the 1.1495 area. The rebound off Wednesday's 16m low at 1.1113 has cleared the 1.1241/43 lower highs, as dovish Fed speak and AI-risk unease weighed on USD despite hot US PPI and retail sales. Price is now pressing the 1.1276 prior high after retracing nearly 90% of the 1.1276–1.1113 fib leg, with ATR(14) near 33 pips and price above both EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.1285 swing high is the last lower high in the sequence, with the 1.1340 zone the next multi-day reference above.
Support: 1.1242, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1285, 1.1340
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1285 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 1.1340 zone
Slip back below the 1.1242 lower highs would mark the breakout as a false break and put the rebound line in focus
Loss of the 1.1188 rebound low exposes the 16m low at 1.1113
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1495; dip below range floor reversed, trendline broken.
The three-week downtrend from 1.1495 set a 17-month low at 1.1113 midweek. That dip below the 1.1150 range floor reversed quickly as the dollar softened on lower US yields, even with hot PPI and retail sales data. The rebound has cleared the descending lower-highs line and is pressing the 1.1245 prior high near the 78.6% fib of the 1.1276–1.1113 leg. Price is back above both EMAs, which are flattening into an ema cluster near 1.1200, while ATR(14) around 32 pips shows a modestly expanded regime after the midweek swing.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1280, 1.1340
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1280 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1340 prior range
Rejection at the 1.1245 prior high followed by a close back below the 1.1200 ema cluster puts the range floor at 1.1150 back in focus
A break of the 1.1113 17-mth low resumes the lower-low sequence
Final eurozone HICP and core HICP this morning, then US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower-high line broken; consolidation under 1.1243.
Lower highs and lower lows since mid-September took price to a 17-month low at 1.1113. The rebound then broke the descending lower-high line near 1.1211 and has held a 1.1188–1.1241 consolidation above the 61.8% retracement at 1.1219, with EMA20 and EMA50 flattening near the 1.1200 pivot and ATR(14) steady around 30 pips. Price is now retesting the 1.1240–1.1243 prior high, which capped three times in the window; the bounce is USD-driven on softer Treasury yields, while weak euro-area IP limits support from the euro side.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1243 prior high clears the cap and opens the 1.1276–1.1285 swing high
Break back below the 1.1200 pivot and 1.1188 range low reasserts the lower-high sequence toward the 17-month low at 1.1113
Final euro-area core HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 2.5%) could shift the read only on a revision
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and the direction of Treasury yields could materially move the 1.1200 pivot test
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1495; bounce capped at prior lower high.
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows took the pair from 1.1495 to a 17-month low at 1.1113. That low came before a USD and yield-driven rebound that stalled at 1.1241, a lower high just under the 1.1243 cap and near the 78.6% retracement of the 1.1276 swing high to 1.1113 impulse. Price is holding above the 1.1188 swing low in a tightening 1.1190-1.1240 band, with ATR(14) easing to about 29 pips. It is back above both EMAs, but EMA20 is still below EMA50, so no H4 cross has confirmed.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1241 lower high and the falling lower-high line breaks the descending sequence and exposes the 1.1276 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1188 swing low reopens the 1.1151 prior low and the 1.1113 17-month low
Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC and final euro area HICP Fri 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would mark the first H4 swing shift since the decline began