EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Late-NY recovery inside a failed London push · RSI 58 · price 1.12373
Lower high at 1.1261, higher lows off 1.1212, pressing Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1241 and ran to a 1.1269 session high as the AI-linked equity sell-off weighed on the USD. NY rejected a lower high at 1.1261 and slid to 1.1212 once the dollar steadied on Fed-hike pricing. A late-NY higher low at 1.1226 and a rising support line have since carried price back to the asian high, which sits on the 50% fib, in thin pre-close trade.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1212
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 asian high and 50% fib reopens the 1.1261 lower high, then the 1.1269 session high
A break of the rising support line and the 1.1226 higher low puts the 1.1212 ny low back in focus
Weekly close in thin liquidity; ECB's Lane and Sleijpen speak ~01:20 UTC Mon and could move the Monday open
20:31 UTC
Late-NY recovery after reversal, stalling at asian high · RSI 56 · price 1.12378
London high 1.1269, NY lower high 1.1260, drop to 1.1212, then HH/HL chain back to 1.1240.
London broke the Asian range (1.1208–1.1241) and ran to a 1.1269 session high on the AI-led USD pullback. NY printed a lower high at 1.1260 and dropped to the 1.1212 ny low as the dollar steadied. The late-NY recovery trendline has carried price back to the asian high, which sits near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib. Price is flat into the weekly close on thin bars.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1241 asian high / NY drop fib 61.8% reopens the 1.1260 lower high, then the 1.1269 session high
Break of the recovery trendline exposes the 1.1212 ny low; losing the 1.1208 asian low puts price back below 1.12 territory
Weekend IMF headlines and ECB's Lane early Monday (~01:20 UTC) could gap the open away from this structure
Higher-low chain off 1.1212, retesting broken 1.1240 neckline.
London set the session high at 1.1269 and NY printed a lower high at 1.1261. An afternoon drop to the ny low at 1.1212 then completed a small double top as the AI-driven USD slide steadied on hawkish Fed pricing. Since then, price has built a higher-low chain along a rising line after NY close and is retesting the 1.1240 neckline, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 1.1269–1.1212 drop.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1226, 1.1212
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1241 50% fib neutralises the double-top read, with the 1.1261 lower high next
Loss of the 1.1235 swing low and the 1.1226 higher low breaks the rising line and the recovery chain
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekly close; Monday open gap risk, with ECB's Lane speaking early Monday
Holding above 1.12 into the weekly close is the digest's key test of the rebound
20:01 UTC
Intraday down leg, recovering into retrace · RSI 55 · price 1.12363
Lower high 1.1261 in NY, higher-low grind off 1.1212 low.
London cleared the 1.1241 Asian high and ran to a 1.1269 session high on AI-linked USD selling. NY printed a lower high at 1.1261, then fell to a 1.1212 NY low as the dollar steadied on hawkish Fed expectations. Late-NY recovery is a steady higher-low grind above the ema20, now stalling at the 1.1238 late high near the 50% retrace and EMA50.
Support: 1.1231, 1.12122, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12384, 1.12409, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 asian high reclaims the failed breakout level and puts 1.1261 back in play
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1231 ends the higher-low grind and exposes the 1.1212 ny low
Break of the 1.1208 asian low erases the full London advance
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend IMF headlines could gap the Monday open
Lower high 1.1261 then low 1.1212; higher lows since, testing broken support.
The London rally to the 1.1269 day high was fully unwound in NY: a rejection at the 1.1261 lower high preceded a ~50-pip drop to the 1.1212 NY low as USD steadied on hawkish Fed expectations. The late-NY recovery has built a higher-low chain along the recovery trendline and now sits at the 50% of the NY selloff fib, just under the 1.1241 asia high, which also capped the 13:15 UTC swing low.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1212, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 asia high (near the 61.8% fib) opens a retest of the 1.1261 lower high, with the 1.1269 day high above
Break of the recovery trendline and the 1.1226 higher low returns focus to the 1.1212 NY low and 1.1208 asia low
Thin liquidity into the Friday weekly close; weekend IMF headlines could shift the read at the Monday open
19:31 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY sell-off · RSI 56 · price 1.1236
Higher lows off 1.1212, retesting 50% of the NY drop.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1241 and ran to a 1.1269 session high. After a rejection at the 1.1261 lower high, NY sold off to 1.1212 as the dollar steadied on hawkish Fed expectations. The late-NY recovery has printed higher lows above 1.1226 along a recovery line and is now retesting the 50% retrace of the NY drop near 1.1236, just under the Asian high.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1212, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1241 reclaims the Asian range top and exposes the 1.1261 lower high
Failure at the 50% retrace and a break of the 1.1226 higher low and recovery line puts the 1.1212 ny low and 1.1208 asian low back in play
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; weekend IMF and Fed headlines could gap the Monday open
Lower high at 1.1261, break to 1.1212, then higher-low rebound.
London cleared the asian high to a 1.1269 session top. NY then printed a lower high at 1.1261 and broke the 1.1240 shelf, sliding to the 1.1212 ny low as the USD steadied on hawkish Fed expectations. The late-NY rebound is building a higher low and is pressing the 38.2% fib at the 1.1233 late high, pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.12259, 1.12122, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.12409, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1241 (asian high, 50% fib) would negate the corrective-bounce read
A break of the 1.1226 higher low also breaks the rebound line, exposing the ny low at 1.1212 and the asian low at 1.1208
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; weekend IMF meetings carry gap risk for Monday's open
19:01 UTC
Down from the NY high, corrective bounce in progress · RSI 44 · price 1.12318
Lower high at 1.1261 after the 1.1269 day high, 1.1212 NY low, bounce stalling at the 38.2% retrace.
London extended the AI-driven USD pullback to a 1.1269 day high. NY was rejected at a 1.1261 lower high, then slid 49 pips to the 1.1212 NY low as the dollar steadied. The late-NY bounce on rising lows is stalling at the 38.2% retrace and bounce high near 1.1234, with price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1241, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 asian high clears the 50% retrace and reopens the 1.1261 ny high
A break of the rising lows and the 1.1212 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 round number
Thin late-Friday trade into the weekly close vs ~1.1250, then ECB speakers Lane, Elderson and Sleijpen early Monday, could shift this read
London lifted price above the Asian high to a 1.1269 day high, but NY printed a lower high at 1.1261. The pair then gave back most of the London gains to a 1.1212 NY low as the USD steadied on Industrial Production and import-price beats. A late-NY bounce is stalling at the 1.1233 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the NY drop fib and below EMA20, leaving price back inside the Asian range.
Support: 1.12122, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.12409, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 bounce high opens the Asian high at 1.1241
Break of the 1.1212 NY low exposes the 1.1208 Asian low and confirms a lower-low
Only a reclaim of the 1.1261 NY high breaks the lower highs trendline
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) carry headline risk into the open
18:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY reversal, weak bounce · RSI 37 · price 1.12285
Lower highs from 1.1269 day high; back inside Asian range.
London extended the USD-weakness rally to a 1.1269 day high, but NY capped twice near the 1.1261 ny high and the late sell-off unwound the move to a 1.1212 ny low, back inside the Asian range. The rebound stalled at the 1.1234 bounce high, the 38.2% retrace of the day's drop, with price under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 37 into the Friday close.
Support: 1.12122, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.12409, 1.1261
What it said to watch
15-minute close above the 1.1241 asian high would void the lower-high sequence and bring the 1.1261 ny high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1212 ny low exposes the 1.1208 asian low and the session's full give-back
Repeated rejection at the 1.1234 bounce high / 38.2% fib keeps the post-NY reversal intact
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend IMF headlines and Fed-speak could shift this read at the Monday open
18:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London high, bounce stalling · RSI 42 · price 1.12271
NY lower high, double top broke 1.1240 neckline, now back inside Asian range.
London ran to a 1.1269 session high. NY then put in a lower high and a double top at the 1.1261 ny high, and the break of the 1.1240 neckline, which is also the asian high, flushed price to a 1.1212 ny low as USD steadied on the industrial production and import price beats. The late-NY bounce stalled at 1.1234, the fib 38.2 retracement of the day's high-to-low move, and price is now drifting near 1.1227, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.12122, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12335, 1.1240, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1240 asian high and neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 1.1212 ny low exposes the 1.1208 asian low
Rejection at the fib 38.2 near 1.1234 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Thin Friday close and weekend IMF headlines could gap the open; the pending US budget statement is also outstanding
18:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, late-NY bounce · RSI 35 · price 1.1227
Lower high at 1.1261, lower low at 1.1212, bounce capped at 38.2% fib.
London's USD-weakness run to 1.1269 stalled, NY printed a lower high at 1.1261, and the sell-off erased the day's gains down to a 1.1212 NY low just above the Asian low. The late-NY bounce stalled at 1.1234, the 38.2% fib of the drop, and price is back below the 1.1241 Asian high.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1241, 1.1261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1234 38.2% fib and the 1.1241 Asian high would weaken the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 1.1212 NY low exposes the 1.1208 Asian low
Trendline from the London high through the 1.1261 NY high caps the structure while it holds
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, then thin Friday-close liquidity, could distort the late-NY range
Lower highs and lower lows since the 10:30 UTC London high; price back inside the Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1240 and printed a 1.1269 London high. NY hours then put in a lower high near 1.1260 and slid to a 1.1212 NY low, giving back the day's rally despite the softer-USD backdrop from the AI equity sell-off. A small late-session bounce is holding near 1.1224, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1240 asian high, which aligns with the 50% fib of the NY selloff, neutralises the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1212 ny low exposes the 1.1208 asian low
Rejection again at the 1.1260 lower high keeps the descending lower highs trendline intact
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin pre-weekend liquidity could distort late-session prints
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend after reversal from session high · RSI 26 · price 1.12205
Lower high at 1.1260, break of 1.1240 pullback low, lower low at 1.1212.
London extended the USD-weakness rally to a 1.1269 session high. NY then rejected a lower high at 1.1260, and the after-London-close sell-off broke the 1.1240 pullback low to an NY low at 1.1212, erasing most of the day's gains. Price is stalling just above that low late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 26 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1208, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1240, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1212 NY low exposes the 1.1208 Asian low and the 1.1204 prior low
Recovery above the 1.1230 breakdown bar and the 1.1240 pullback low (50% of the sell-off fib) would neutralise the lower-low read
Lower high at 1.1260 caps the intraday structure while it holds
Thin late-Friday liquidity, US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, and the weekly close vs the digest's 1.1255–1.1285 marker could shift this read
Lower high at 1.1260, break of 1.1240 swing low, lower low at 1.1212; Asia-London rally almost fully retraced.
Late NY, after London close: EUR/USD gave back the Asia spike and London push to 1.1269, with rejection at the 1.1260 lower high and a break of the 1.1240 swing low. The slide reached a 1.1212 NY low, just above the 1.1208 Asian low, despite the digest's softer-USD backdrop. RSI(14) is near 28, and the 1.1231 breakdown level, at the sell-off fib 38.2%, sits overhead.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1208, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1240, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1212 ny low and 1.1208 asian low exposes the 1.1204 prior low and fully erases the session's gains
Recovery above the 1.1231 breakdown level and the 1.1240 swing low (sell-off fib 38.2–61.8% zone) would ease the lower-low read
Only a move back above the 1.1260 lower high negates the NY sell-off structure
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin Friday-close liquidity could exaggerate moves
Lower highs from 1.1269, pullback low 1.1240 broken, back inside Asian range.
The NY session double top at 1.1260 caught supply under the earlier 1.1269 high. The slide after London close broke the 1.1240 pullback low and erased the soft-USD London gains in about 50 pips. Price is back inside the Asian range near 1.1217, sitting just above the 1.1212 session low with RSI(14) at about 31.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1208, 1.1204
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1240, 1.1260
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 1.1231 breakdown level, the 38.2% fib, keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close back above the 1.1240 asian high, the 61.8% fib, neutralises the double top read
Break of the 1.1208 asian low and the 1.1204 prior low takes price out of the Asian range
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Friday's weekly close could shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday downturn, momentum heavy · RSI 32 · price 1.12222
Lower highs from London high, double-top neckline broken.
After London close, price unwound the London rally. A double top at 1.1260/61 gave way through the 1.1240 neckline and dropped price about 47 pips off the 1.1269 London high into the 1.1220 asia pivot, with RSI(14) near 32. The late USD bounce cuts against the digest's AI-driven dollar weakness, and the Asian session's 1.1208–1.1241 range is now back in play.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1208, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.1220 asia pivot exposes the 1.1208 asian low and the 1.1200 round number, the digest's 1.12 marker
Recovery back above the 1.1240 neckline, near 38.2% of the decline, would neutralise the double top
Lower highs trendline from the london high caps rebounds; a break of it reopens 1.1261
Friday post-London liquidity is thin; the weekly close against 1.1285 fair value matters more than the 18:00 UTC US Budget Statement
Lower highs from the 1.1269 session high, 1.1240 broken, price back in the upper Asian range.
London extended the Asian spike to a 1.1269 session high. NY then capped at lower highs near 1.1260, and a 45-pip slide into London close cut back through the 1.1240 Asian high to a 1.1222 NY low, near the 78.6% of the Asian low–session high fib. RSI(14) sits around 32 with price under EMA20/50, a late fade against the USD-weakness backdrop in the digest.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.1240 asian high, where EMA20/50 also cluster, would frame the drop as a pullback inside the day's range
A break of the 1.1222 ny low opens the 1.1208 asian low and a full retrace of the fib leg
Lower highs at 1.1260 cap rebounds; the session high at 1.1269 remains below the 1.1285 fair value flagged for the weekly close
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is medium impact; thin late-Friday liquidity can exaggerate moves
16:16 UTC
Intraday pullback from day high, momentum negative · RSI 31 · price 1.12311
Lower highs since 1.1269 day high; NY low broken, price back inside Asian range.
London extended the USD-weakness rally to a 1.1269 day high. NY then printed lower highs, with a rejection at the 1.1261 NY high, and the 15:45 UTC bar broke the 1.1240 NY low. That put price back inside the Asian range, sitting on the 61.8% fib of the 1.1208–1.1269 move with RSI(14) near 31. The 1.1220 pullback low is the next reference below.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1240 NY low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1220 pullback low exposes the 1.1208 asian low
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC lands in thin late-NY, after-London-close liquidity
Friday close relative to the 1.1255–1.1285 area could shift the read into Monday
16:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower high in NY · RSI 41 · price 1.12428
Lower high at 1.1261 under 1.1269 session high; retesting Asian high.
London broke above the 1.1240 Asian high and ran to a 1.1269 session high as the AI-led sell-off weighed on USD. NY was rejected at a 1.1261 NY high, a lower high, and has faded through the ema20 into the London-NY transition. Price is now retesting the Asian high near 1.1240, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the intraday rally, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1231, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1240 asian high opens the fib 61.8 at 1.1231 and the 1.1220 swing low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.1250, then a close above the 1.1261 ny high, breaks the lower-high trendline
Close above the 1.1269 session high resumes the intraday HH chain
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and positioning into the weekly close could shift this read
15:46 UTC
Uptrend, NY lower high pressuring the move · RSI 45 · price 1.12463
HH/HL from the Asian low; NY lower high at 1.1261, price back on the rising trendline.
The USD slide on AI risk-off and dovish Fed talk lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1208 Asian low. An Asia-hours spike was followed by a London push to the 1.1269 london high. NY was rejected twice at 1.1260–61 (ny high) and slipped below the 1.1250 ny range low; price at 1.1246 now tests the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline, with the 1.1240 midday low beneath.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1231
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1240 midday low breaks the HL chain and opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1231
Reclaim of the 1.1250 ny range low and a break of the 1.1261 ny high revive a test of the 1.1269 london high
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the Friday weekly close could shift the late-session read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below London high · RSI 46 · price 1.12503
Asian range break, retest held, lower high in NY.
London cleared the Asian high near 1.1240 and ran to a 1.1269 London high on broad USD softness tied to AI-equity jitters and Warsh. The pullback retested the Asian high at 1.1240, close to the 50% fib of the leg, and NY then stalled at a lower 1.1261 high. Price sits at 1.1250 on the NY low, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.12495, 1.12397
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1250 NY low puts the 1.1240 Asian high retest back in play.
Loss of 1.1240 and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain from the Asian lows.
M15 close above the 1.1261 NY high reopens the 1.1269 London high.
London close and the US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC are low-impact, but weekly-close positioning into Friday could widen ranges.
HH/HL chain from Asia; NY printed a lower high at 1.1261 below the 1.1269 session high.
The Asian breakout above the 1.1221 prior high extended in London to a 1.1269 session high, in line with the softer-USD / AI sell-off tone. NY retraced to a 1.1240 ny low, the 50% of the 1.1208–1.1269 fib leg and a retest of the Asian high, then stalled at a 1.1261 lower high. Price is drifting near 1.1252 just under EMA20 with RSI(14) ~47 in the London-NY transition, still above the higher-low line.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12214
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1240 ny low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.1221 prior high
Close above the 1.1261 lower high reopens the 1.1269 session high
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is usually low impact; AI-equity and Fed headlines into the weekly close could shift this read
London broke the Asian high, retest held, NY lower high under session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1241 and ran to a 1.1269 session high as USD weakness from the AI sell-off and lower US yields carried over. The midday pullback retested 1.1240, holding near the 50% fib of the Asian-low rally. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1261 ny high with RSI(14) neutral near 52, and price is holding just above the 1.1250 psych level.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1240
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1240 asian high undoes the London breakout and the retest read
Close above the 1.1269 session high resumes the higher-high chain; another stall at the 1.1261 ny high leaves a lower high in place
Loss of 1.1250 psych would put price back under ema20 and toward the rising support
US yields and AI-equity sentiment remain the main driver; US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low-impact
14:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below the London high · RSI 58 · price 1.12553
Asian range break, higher low at 1.1240, NY high 1.1261 so far below 1.1269.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1241 and ran to a 1.1269 London high as USD stayed offered on lower yields and AI-equity unease. The pullback retested the Asian high near the 50% fib through the US import-price and IP beats. Early NY bounced to a 1.1261 NY high, with price holding just above the ema20 at 1.1250.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1240, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1261, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1240 (asian high, rising support) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1208 asian low
Close above the 1.1261 ny high and 1.1269 london high resumes the session uptrend
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.1250 into the NY afternoon shifts the read to a range
Yields and AI-equity sentiment remain the USD driver into the weekly close; US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC is a minor risk
London broke the Asian range high at 1.1241 and ran to a 1.1269 session high as USD stayed offered on falling yields and the AI sell-off. The NY-open dip to the 1.1240 NY low retested the Asian high near the 61.8% of the London leg fib and held. Price is back at 1.1258, testing the 1.1260 range cap from late London.
Support: 1.1250, 1.1240
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1269 session high extends the HH chain
Rejection at the 1.1260 range cap keeps price boxed between the cap and the 1.1250 psych level
Break below the 1.1240 NY low voids the Asian high retest and confirms a lower-low
US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC and Fed/yield headlines into the weekly close could shift USD flows
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from London high · RSI 51 · price 1.12478
Asian range break, lower highs off London high, retest of Asian high holding.
London extended the Asian range breakout to a 1.1269 London high as USD weakness from the AI sell-off and lower yields persisted. Price has since printed lower highs into the NY session, and the retest of the 1.1240 Asian high held on the 38–50% fib of the 1.1208–1.1269 leg. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1252, 1.1269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1240 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 1.1220 swing low
Break above the 1.1252 NY high ends the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1269 London high
Thin US calendar; weekend IMF Fed-speak and US equity/yield tone could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 48 · price 1.12432
London breakout above Asian high, NY lower highs into retest.
London extended the Asian-session breakout above 1.1241 to a 1.1269 session high on broad USD weakness from the AI sell-off and lower yields. Since then the pair has printed a lower high at 1.1259 and moved back below 1.1250 psych into the Asian high near 1.1240, a retest that also sits on EMA50 and just above the 50% fib at 1.1238. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and price is below EMA20.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1238, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1269, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1240 Asian high and 50% fib exposes the 1.1220 swing low from the early-London pullback
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.1259 lower high breaks the pullback sequence and puts the 1.1269 session high back in play
Thin calendar; AI/equity risk sentiment and US yields drive the next leg, with possible Fed-speak at weekend IMF meetings
13:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, correcting from session high · RSI 37 · price 1.12414
Lower highs off 1.1269, retesting Asian high 1.1240.
London extended the Asian-range breakout to a 1.1269 session high on USD weakness from the AI sell-off and lower yields, then faded through the London-NY transition with a lower high at 1.1260 and a breakdown through 1.1250. Price is now retesting the Asian high at 1.1240, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the rally, just under the descending pullback line, with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1235, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1260, 1.1269
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift this read; the digest notes strong US data has been faded this week
M15 close below the 1.1235 london low (London open dip) fails the Asian-high retest and exposes the 1.1220 swing low
Recovery above the 1.1250 breakdown level and the 1.1260 lower high breaks the pullback line and reopens the 1.1269 session high
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now in pullback · RSI 44 · price 1.12438
London HH/HL leg to 1.1269, retracing into the 1.1240 breakout zone.
London cleared the 1.1240 Asia high and ran to a 1.1269 session high on broad USD weakness from lower yields and the AI sell-off. Since then the midday shelf near 1.1257 gave way at 12:00 UTC, the 1.1250 breakdown followed, and the 12:45 UTC low sat at 1.1240, near the 50–61.8% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) at about 44 and price under EMA20.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1257, 1.1269
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1240 asia high / 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1220 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.1250 breakdown level and the midday shelf at 1.1257 puts the 1.1269 session high back in view
Asian spike and London HH/HL run to 1.1269, then a two-hour fade back into the Asian high.
Dollar softness on lower yields and AI jitters carried EUR/USD from the Asian high near 1.1241 to a 1.1269 session high during London. Rejection there has produced lower highs and a slip below 1.1250, putting price back on the asian high and the 50% fib of the 1.1220–1.1269 leg, with RSI(14) at 41 and the close just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1235, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1269
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, right at the NY open, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1235 london low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.1220 swing low
Recovery above the 1.1250 breakdown level neutralises the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1269 session high
12:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, correcting from session high · RSI 43 · price 1.1248
Lower highs below 1.1269 session high; price between 38.2% and 50% fib of the London rally.
The Warsh-hour spike in the Asia session broke the prior-day range, and London extended the move to a 1.1269 session high as USD softness persisted. Price has since printed lower highs and is pressing the 1.1247 swing low into the London-NY transition, sitting between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the London rally fib, with the 1.1241 asian high just below.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1241, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1259, 1.1269
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low exposes the 1.1241 asian high and the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1241 asian high opens the 1.1220 rally base
Close above the 1.1259 lower high breaks the pullback line and brings the 1.1269 session high back into view
12:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 1.12487
HH/HL chain from Asian low, lower highs since London peak.
USD weakness after the Warsh speech produced the spike through the Asian high at 1.1241, and London extended the HH/HL chain to a 1.1269 session high. Since then price has printed lower highs under the pullback line and slipped below the 1.1254 broken low. It is now pressing the 1.1247 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.12469, 1.12409
Resistance: 1.1254, 1.12691
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.1241 asian high and 50% fib near 1.1238
Reclaim of the 1.1254 broken low and the pullback line puts the 1.1269 session high back in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) in the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asia, tight pullback band 1.1254–1.1260.
The Warsh-driven Asia spike set an asian high at 1.1241. London broke above it on broad USD weakness and printed a session high at 1.1269. Price has since held a shallow pullback low at 1.1254, near the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) cooled to ~62 ahead of NY open.
Support: 1.1254, 1.1246, 1.1241
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1254 pullback low opens the fib 38.2 at 1.1246 and the asian high at 1.1241
Close above the 1.1269 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 1.1300 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 1.12547
HH/HL chain since 1.1220, late-London pullback.
London extended the break of the asian high at 1.1241 to a session high of 1.1269 as the USD stayed soft on the AI-led tech sell-off. Price has since slipped under the rising trendline from 1.1220 and sits on the fib 38.2 / EMA20 confluence near 1.1250. RSI(14) has cooled to ~54, and the HL chain holds while the 1.1247 swing low stays intact.
Support: 1.1250, 1.12469, 1.12409
Resistance: 1.12691
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, early NY session, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the asian high at 1.1241
Recovery back above the rising trendline and a close through the 1.1269 session high would resume the London HH sequence
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback from session high · RSI 58 · price 1.1256
HH/HL chain since London open; Asian range high broken, rising trendline being tested.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1241 and stacked higher lows up to a session high at 1.1269, with USD offered on the AI-led equity sell-off and lower US yields. Late London has pulled back about 13 pips to a 1.1255 pullback low, sitting on the rising trendline and shallow inside the London leg fib. Price is still above EMA20.
Support: 1.1255, 1.1247, 1.1241
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1280
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.1241 Asian high retest in play
M15 close above the 1.1269 session high opens the 1.1280 range top cited in commentary
Sustained trade under the rising trendline turns the pullback into a range
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback from highs · RSI 59 · price 1.12568
HH/HL chain since Asian range breakout; shallow retracement from session high.
Warsh's no-guidance remarks spiked the pair to the 1.1241 asian high, and London broke above it on broad USD softness, stretching the HH/HL chain to a 1.1269 session high. Price is now holding the 1.1255 pullback low near the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1220–1.1269 leg. RSI(14) has cooled to ~59 from the mid-70s, and price is still above EMA20/50.
Support: 1.1255, 1.1247, 1.1241
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1241 asian high
Close above the 1.1269 session high resumes the leg toward the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
London HH/HL chain above the Asian high, testing the rising trendline.
The London leg extended the post-Warsh USD slide, clearing the 1.1241 asian high at the open and stacking higher lows up to a 1.1269 session high. The 10:45 UTC bar shed 9 pips back to the rising trendline near 1.1257. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 and ATR(14) is ~7 pips.
Support: 1.12469, 1.12409
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.1280
What it said to watch
A close below the rising trendline and the 1.1247 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.1241 asian high puts price back inside the post-Warsh Asian range
A close above the 1.1269 session high opens the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read around the NY open
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, steady higher lows through London · RSI 68 · price 1.12665
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain since London open.
EUR/USD broke out of the Asian range to 1.1241 during Asia, as the dollar softened after Warsh's comments. The London leg then built a clean higher-low chain through the 1.1250 cap to a 1.1269 session high, with RSI(14) near 68 and short-term warm but not stretched. The 1.1247 swing low sits at the 61.8% retracement of that leg.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1241
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1280
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain
Close back under the 1.1241 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.1269 session high exposes the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker), during NY hours, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since the Asian low; 1.1250 cap broken.
Warsh's comments in Asia lifted EUR/USD through 1.1240. London has since extended a higher-low chain, clearing the 1.1250 cap to a 1.1268 session high as the USD slide continued. RSI(14) near 72 is hot but not extreme; the 1.1247 swing low and the 1.1241 asian high sit below.
Support: 1.12469, 1.12409, 1.12201
Resistance: 1.12678, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and the higher-low line
Loss of the 1.1241 asian high returns price to the Asian range, exposing the asian low at 1.1220 and a deeper retracement of the asian low-session high leg
Session high at 1.1268 is the near-term cap; a close above opens the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 70 · price 1.12623
HH/HL chain off the 1.1220 late-Asia low; prior-day high cleared.
EUR/USD cleared yesterday's prior high at 1.1224 with the 04:45 UTC spike to 1.1241. London has since stacked higher lows to a 1.1264 session high as softer US yields keep the USD offered. RSI(14) near 70 is hot but not stretched, and the rising trendline plus the 1.1247 swing low define the current structure.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1241, 1.1224
Resistance: 1.1264, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 swing low breaks the HL chain and brings the 1.1241 spike high into play as retest
Failure to hold 1.1224 prior high would undo the Asia breakout
Acceptance above the 1.1264 session high exposes the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the rising trendline would mark a pause in the London leg
Asian range broken higher in London; higher lows at 1.1235 and 1.1247 under a 1.1257 session high.
Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks and softer yields lifted EUR/USD out of the overnight range. London broke the 1.1241 Asian high and printed a HH/HL chain to a 1.1257 session high. The 1.1247 pullback low held mid-London; RSI(14) near 65, not stretched.
Support: 1.12469, 1.12409, 1.1235
Resistance: 1.1257, 1.1280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1247 pullback low breaks the HL chain and the rising support line
Loss of the 1.1241 asian high and the 1.1235 london hl would mark the London breakout as a false break
M15 close above the 1.1257 session high opens the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, first pullback from session high · RSI 63 · price 1.12499
HH/HL chain above the broken Asian range, pulling back to the rising trendline.
London cleared the 1.1241 Asian high, set during the Asia-session spike around Warsh's speech, and ran to a 1.1256 session high on broad USD softness tied to lower Treasury yields. Price is pulling back onto the rising trendline near the 1.1247 pullback low, with RSI(14) easing to ~63; the 38.2% fib of the 1.1220–1.1256 leg sits at the Asian high.
Support: 1.12469, 1.12409, 1.12378
Resistance: 1.12564, 1.1280
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1247 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1241 Asian high / 38.2% fib
M15 close back below the 1.1238 swing low breaks the HL chain
Clean break of the 1.1256 session high opens the 1.1280 range top
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending to fresh session high · RSI 73 · price 1.12555
Higher lows from 1.1220; morning high and weekly-high cap cleared.
London built on the Asian spike to 1.1241, clearing the 1.1249 morning high and the 1.1240–1.1250 weekly cap. The 09:00 GMT bar, at the final EZ CPI release, printed a session high at 1.1256 on a soft USD. Higher lows since the 1.1220 pullback low hold a rising trendline, and RSI(14) is near 73.
Support: 1.1249, 1.1238, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.12565, 1.1280, 1.1300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1249 morning high would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.1238 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 1.1220 pullback low
Acceptance above the 1.1256 session high brings the 1.1280 range top (UOB) and the 1.1300 round number into view
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the USD leg driving this move
09:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing under session high · RSI 68 · price 1.12448
Higher lows beneath a flat 1.1249 top; Asian high broken.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1241 early, printing a 1.1249 session high before the pullback held 1.1235. Price is now compressing under that top along a rising-lows line, with RSI(14) near 68. The push into the 1.1240–1.1250 weekly cap tracks a softer USD on falling yields rather than euro-specific demand.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1235, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1249
What it said to watch
Final EZ September CPI is due at 09:00 GMT; a revision away from 3.8% could break the 1.1235–1.1249 compression either way
An M15 close above the 1.1249 session high clears the weekly cap zone
A close back below the 1.1235 pullback low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.1220 swing low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
A full retrace of the Asian-low-to-London-high leg below its 50% level (~1.1228) would undo the breakout
Higher lows since 05:45 UTC, tight consolidation under London session high.
A 03:45 UTC spike set the Asian high at 1.1241, and London open extended it to a 1.1249 session high, just short of 1.1250. Since then higher lows have held at the 1.1235 london low and 1.1238, with the move USD-driven on lower Treasury yields. Price is now sitting on the Asian high, and RSI(14) near 66 is warm but not at an extreme.
Support: 1.12409, 1.1235, 1.12201
Resistance: 1.1249
What it said to watch
Final eurozone HICP and core (f/c 2.5%) at 09:00 UTC could break the 1.1235–1.1249 band either way
M15 close above the 1.1249 session high clears the 1.1250 cap cited in the macro read
Failure to hold the 1.1235 london low and the 38.2% fib puts the 1.1220 swing low in play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) is the NY session risk
HH/HL chain since Asia; London high rejected, pullback holding 1.1235.
The 03:45 UTC spike broke the Asian range to a 1.1241 asia high. After a higher swing low at 1.1220, the London open extended to a 1.1249 london high, just shy of the 1.1250 cap, before a rejection took price back toward the 1.1235 pullback low. The HH/HL chain from the 1.1208 asian low stays intact on the softer USD and falling yields, and price holds above the 38.2% level of the leg fib (~1.1234) with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1249
What it said to watch
Final euro-area HICP at 09:00 UTC: a core revision away from 2.5% could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1249 london high clears the 1.1250 cap
M15 close below the 1.1220 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 1.1208 asian low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (NY session) is the next USD risk
Higher lows since Asia; London broke the Asian high, then rejected at 1.1249.
Early London pushed through the 1.1241 asian high to a 1.1249 session high, then met rejection just shy of the 1.1250 cap. The pullback low at 1.1235 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the swing low–session high leg. Dollar softness on lower yields and Warsh's non-committal tone underpins the higher-low chain, with the rising trendline near 1.1230 and the 1.1220 swing low below.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1220
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1249
What it said to watch
Final euro-area HICP at 09:00 UTC; a revision either way could break the 1.1235–1.1249 band
M15 close above the 1.1249 session high clears the 1.1250 cap
Loss of the 1.1235 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1220 swing low
Holding back under the 1.1241 asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift the read
08:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at the 1.1250 cap · RSI 60 · price 1.12379
Higher lows since the Asian low; London false break above the Asian high.
A USD-driven Asia spike set the Asian range at 1.1208–1.1241. London open pushed through the asian high to a 1.1249 session high, just shy of the 1.1250 cap, before a rejection back to 1.1238. Higher lows at 1.1208 and the 1.1220 swing low keep the rising trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1234, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1249
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1249 session high would negate the false break at the 1.1250 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1234 london low exposes the 1.1228 fib 50% and the 1.1220 swing low
Break of the rising trendline below the 1.1220 swing low ends the higher-low chain, with the 1.1208 asian low next
Final euro-area HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break, higher lows since the 61.8% retest.
A USD-led spike during Fed Chair Warsh's Asia-session remarks broke the Asian range to a 1.1241 spike high. The pullback held the 61.8% fib at 1.1220, and London open is now pressing that high again, with the prior high at 1.1230 below price. RSI(14) is near 66, warm but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 spike high opens the 1.1250 weekly high
Loss of the 1.1230 prior high returns the fib 61.8 at 1.1220 to play; a break there exposes the 1.1208 Asian low
Eurozone final HICP at 09:00 UTC: a core revision away from 2.5% could shift this read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next USD swing factor
07:16 UTC
Uptrend off the Asian low, pressing session high · RSI 65 · price 1.12363
Breakout above prior high, retest held, lower-high test at 1.1241.
Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks and a softer USD drove a spike from the 1.1208 Asian low through the 1.1230 prior high to the 1.1241 Asian high. The pullback held 1.1220, a 61.8% retrace, and London open is back testing 1.1238–1.1241 with RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.12409, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 Asian high opens the 1.1250 weekly high
Rejection at 1.1238–1.1241 leaves a lower high and a double top risk against the Asian high
Loss of the 1.1220 pullback low and rising support negates the breakout retest; 1.1208 Asian low next
Eurozone final HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 63 · price 1.12359
Higher lows after Asian spike; price back at spike high.
The 03:45 UTC Asia spike to the 1.1241 Asian high cleared yesterday's prior high at 1.1229 on a softer dollar as yields slid. The pullback held a 1.1220 swing low, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian swing, and price is retesting the Asian high into the London open, with RSI(14) at 63 and ATR(14) near 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1241 Asian high opens the 1.1250 round number, which is also the weekly high
A break of the 1.1220 swing low and the rising-lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1208 Asian low
Slipping back below the 1.1229 prior high would mark the breakout as failing
Final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1241 compressing onto 1.1220 floor.
A USD-led Asia spike to the 1.1241 spike high was rejected. Price has since held a tight consolidation above the 1.1220 pullback low, the 61.8% of the Asian leg and Thursday's broken resistance, with lower highs capping near the 1.1230 prior high ahead of London open. RSI(14) is neutral at 55.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1208, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1220 pullback low exposes the 1.1208 Asian low and the 1.1200 psych level
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1230 prior high reopens the 1.1241 spike high
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Short-term up, stalling after Asia spike · RSI 56 · price 1.1224
Yesterday's PPI dip to the 1.1188 ppi low fully reversed as the dollar softened. The 03:45 UTC spike after Warsh's IMF remarks took out the Asian range to an asia high of 1.1241 before fading. The pullback held 1.1220 psych at the 61.8% fib, and price is now compressing beneath the 1.1230 prior high ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1208, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 prior high reopens the 1.1241 asia high and the 1.1250 weekly high
Failure to hold 1.1220 psych / 61.8% exposes the 1.1208 asia low
Euro-area final HICP at 09:00 UTC could break the 1.1220–1.1230 compression
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next USD risk in NY hours
Failed hold above prior high, pullback into fib zone.
A USD-led spike late in the Asia session lifted price from the 1.1213 spike base to a 1.1241 session high, clearing Thursday's 1.12295 prior high before rejection pulled it back inside. Price is now holding the 1.1223 pullback low near the 61.8% fib of the spike, with RSI(14) back to the mid-50s ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1223, 1.1213, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.12295 prior high reopens the 1.1241 session high and the 1.1250 weekly high
Failure to hold the 1.1223 pullback low exposes the 1.1213 spike base, then the 1.1208 asian low
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Short-term up after Asia breakout, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 1.12243
Asian range broken higher, price retesting the breakout zone.
Late Asia, about 1h45m before London open. A 03:45 UTC spike broke the 1.1208–1.1220 Asian range and tagged a 1.1241 session high, just short of the 1.1250 weekly high, as USD stayed heavy on falling Treasury yields. Price has since faded to the 50% fib of that spike near 1.1224, holding just above the Asian high, with the prior high at 1.1230 capping the rebound.
Support: 1.1220, 1.1208, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1220 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break and reopens the 1.1208 Asian low
Failure to hold 1.1208 brings the 1.1188 prior low from Thursday's US data dip into view
Close above the 1.1241 session high exposes the 1.1250 weekly high
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken to the upside, spike faded, pullback holding above 1.1220.
A 03:45 UTC spike in late Asia cleared the asian high at 1.1220 and Thursday's 1.1230 prior high, tagging 1.1241 before fading. The pullback low at 1.1223 sits near the 50% fib of the asian leg, and price is now basing at 1.1229 ahead of London open as softer US yields keep the dollar heavy.
Support: 1.12233, 1.12203, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12409
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1241 spike high reopens the 1.1250 weekly high
M15 close back below the 1.1220 asian high turns the breakout into a false break, exposing the 1.1208 asian low
Price stalling at the 1.1230 prior high keeps a range between 1.1223 and 1.1241
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC; core revision away from 2.5% could reprice the euro
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the dollar during NY hours
Asian range broken higher, pullback holding above range top.
The 1.1208–1.1220 Asian range broke higher in late Asia on the softer dollar, spiking to 1.1241 before a pullback low at 1.1223 held above the Asian high near the 50% fib. Price is now pinned at yesterday's 1.1230 prior high ahead of London open, RSI(14) ~62, ATR ~7 pips.
Support: 1.1223, 1.1220, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1220 Asian high puts price inside the range and negates the breakout
Clearing the 1.1241 spike high opens the 1.1250 weekly high
Loss of the 1.1208 Asian low exposes the 1.1200 pivot
Final euro-area HICP at 09:00 UTC; a core revision away from 2.5% could shift this read
Asian range broken higher; false break above prior high.
Late Asia session: a 03:45 UTC spike cleared the Asian range and the prior high at 1.1230, tagging the spike high at 1.1241 near the digest's ~1.1240-50 weekly-high zone. It then reversed to 1.1225, leaving a false break and rejection above the prior high, with price parked on the 50% of the spike fib just over the asian high at 1.1220. Dollar softness after DXY broke 102.00 explains the lift, and euro data gave the move little support of its own.
Support: 1.12203, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12409
What it said to watch
Hold of the asian high at 1.1220 (61.8% spike fib) keeps the range break intact; a close back below reopens the asian low at 1.1208
M15 close back above the prior high at 1.1230 negates the false-break read and puts the 1.1241 spike high back in focus
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC, early London session, could shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh remarks Friday (time TBC) and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC are the larger USD risks
04:16 UTC
Vertical breakout in late Asia, single-bar move · RSI 73 · price 1.12369
Breakout above Asian range and prior-day high; first bar after the spike holding near highs.
A 28-pip spike during the Warsh speech window lifted EURUSD out of the 1.1208–1.1220 Asian range (asian low to asian high) and through yesterday's prior high at 1.1230, tagging a 1.1241 spike high. That fits the digest's softer-USD, falling-yield driver. RSI(14) sits near 73 after the vertical bar. The next bar is holding 1.1236–1.1238, so the move rests on one candle with no follow-through yet.
Support: 1.12295, 1.1220, 1.12076
Resistance: 1.12409, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.1230 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below the 1.1220 asian high, near the 61.8% of the spike fib, would mark a false break
An M15 close above the 1.1241 spike high puts the ~1.1250 weekly high in play
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC and further Warsh headlines could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Sideways, rising lows into a flat cap · RSI 61 · price 1.12195
Higher lows from 1.1188 compressing under 1.1220–1.1224.
EUR/USD has built higher lows on rising support off the 1.1188 data low from Thursday's US releases. Highs keep stalling at the 1.1220 asian high and the 1.1224 post-data high, which together form the range top. The 03:30 UTC dip to 1.1210 around Warsh's speech was fully reversed, the warsh dip low holds above the 1.1208 asian low, and ATR(14) sits near 4 pips.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1208, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1224, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1220 asian high and 1.1224 post-data high breaks the range top and exposes the 1.1230 day high
Loss of rising support and the 1.1208 asian low opens a move back toward the 1.1188 data low
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC and further Warsh headlines could expand range beyond the ~4-pip ATR
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
03:31 UTC
Recovering intraday, compressed in Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.12174
Tight Asian range, higher lows pressing range top.
Asia has held a narrow 1.12076–1.12203 range. Higher lows off the asian low are pressing price into the asian high, with the NY rally from the 1.1193 ny low intact above rising support. That rally followed the US data spike to 1.11883 and was carried by softer yields. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) is under 4 pips, so range is compressed into the Warsh speech.
Support: 1.12076, 1.1200, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.12203, 1.12241, 1.12329
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.12203 asian high opens the 1.12241 ny high, then the 1.12329 day high
Failure to hold the 1.12076 asian low breaks rising support and exposes 1.1200 psych and the 1.1193 ny low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, now, and could expand range well beyond current ATR
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC, around London open, could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Intraday range, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.12181
Rising lows inside Asian range, testing range top.
The Asia session held a 1.1208 asian low four times on a line of rising lows, and price is now pressing the 1.1221 asian high, which matches the late NY high. Yesterday's US data spike to the 1.1188 data low was fully reclaimed as softer yields weighed on the dollar. Above the range sit the 1.1224 swing high and the 1.1230 london high; the 1.1200 round number is the floor below.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1224, 1.1230
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 15 minutes out, and could break either side of the Asian range
An M15 close above the 1.1221 asian high opens the 1.1224 swing high and the 1.1230 london high
Failure at 1.1221 followed by a break of the rising lows and the 1.1208 asian low puts the 1.1200 round number back in play
A move back under 1.1200 exposes the 1.1188 data low
Final Eurozone HICP at 09:00 UTC is secondary risk at the London open
03:01 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY recovery · RSI 55 · price 1.12155
Tight Asian range 1.1208–1.1219, higher lows since NY.
Mid-Asia session, price sits in the upper half of a tight 1.1208–1.1219 range after three tests of the asian low held, with rising lows intact since yesterday's NY session. RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips. The 12:30 UTC spike to the 1.1188 data low on hot US PPI and retail sales was fully reclaimed as the dollar faded falling yields.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1224, 1.1230
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~30m) is the likely catalyst for a break of the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.1219 asian high exposes the 1.1224 ny high and the 1.1230 london high
Failure at the 1.1208 asian low and the rising lows line puts 1.1200 psych and the 1.1188 data low back in play
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC lands shortly after London open
02:46 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since NY low · RSI 58 · price 1.12174
24h range 1.1188–1.1240; higher lows off the NY low, now pressing the Asian range high.
Late Asia session: price is lifting into the top of the Asian range at 1.1217. Buyers held the 1.1208 Asia low twice, right at the 50% fib of the NY low-to-late NY high bounce. The higher-lows line from the 1.1193 NY low is intact. The broader 24h range runs from the 1.1188 PPI low, set when the hot US PPI print briefly lifted the dollar, to the 1.1240 24h high, with the dollar still soft on lower yields.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~45 min) and ECB Nagel remarks could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.1221 late NY high opens the 1.1230 London high and the 1.1240 24h high
Failure to hold the 1.1208 Asia low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1200 round number and 1.1188 PPI low back in play
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC is the next scheduled euro-side risk
Tight Asian range 1.1208–1.1221 below late-NY high.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to the 1.1188 data low was fully reversed as yields fell, with the recovery stalling at the late-NY high of 1.1221. Asia is compressing in a 13-pip band. The asian low at 1.1208 sits on the 38.2% level of the data-low fib, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.12076, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12214, 1.12241, 1.12295
What it said to watch
Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~1h) and Nagel at 02:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1208 asian low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 50% level of the data-low fib near 1.1205
An M15 close above the 1.1221 late-ny high opens the 1.1224 ny high and the 1.1230 london high
Loss of 1.1200 puts the 1.1188 data low back in focus
02:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing after NY recovery · RSI 51 · price 1.12134
Lower highs vs higher lows, Asian range coil.
Asia session is coiling in a 7-pip 1.1208–1.1216 band, with lower highs off the late-NY 1.1221 peak meeting rising lows from the 1.1193 ny low. The US-data spike to 1.1188 was fully retraced as yields fell, leaving the 1.1224 ny high and 1.1240 prior high above. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, typical of a pre-event squeeze.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1204, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.1216, 1.1224, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~1h15m) could break the Asian range either side
ECB Nagel at 02:30 UTC is a near-term headline risk for the 1.1208–1.1216 band
M15 close below the 1.1208 asian low and the rising-lows line exposes the 1.1204 swing low, then the 1.1193 ny low
M15 close above the 1.1216 asian high and the lower-highs line opens the 1.1224 ny high and 1.1240 prior high
02:01 UTC
Sideways, mild drift lower in Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.12086
Asian lower highs inside the 24h 1.1188–1.1240 range.
Asia session is edging lower on a reviving USD bid. Price is printing lower highs, capped by the 1.1216 lower high, and is pressing the 1.1208 Asian low below EMA20 and EMA50, having retraced most of the late-NY leg from the 1.1205 swing low to the 1.1221 late-NY high. The wider 24h range still holds, from the 1.1188 low set on the US PPI/retail sales spike to the 1.1240 24h high, with the data low faded as yields fell.
Support: 1.12082, 1.12046, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12156, 1.12214, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1208 Asian low exposes the 1.1205 swing low, then the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.1216 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.1221 late-NY high
ECB Nagel at 02:30 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read; the ~4-pip ATR understates event risk
Loss of 1.1200 puts the 1.1188 data low back in play, while the 1.1240 24h high caps the upper end of the range
01:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 1.12117
Tight Asian range inside the post-PPI NY range.
Asia session is compressing in a roughly 10-pip band between the 1.1209 asian low and the 1.1219 session high. The NY rebound from the 1.1193 post-ppi low stalled at 1.1221, and price now sits near the 38.2% of that ny swing, with RSI(14) at 44 and EMAs flat. Hot US PPI produced a two-way spike rather than a trend, consistent with falling yields overriding the data.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1205, 1.1193
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1224, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC, with Nagel at 02:30 UTC, could break the Asian range either way
Loss of the 1.1209 asian low exposes the 1.1205 ny swing low, then the 1.1193 post-ppi low
M15 close above the 1.1219 session high reopens the 1.1224 ny high, then the 1.1240 prior high
Final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC is the London-open risk to this read
01:31 UTC
Flat, compressing in Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.12153
Tight Asian range 1.1209–1.1219 above a higher-lows line from the NY low.
Mid-Asia session, EUR/USD is coiling in a 10-pip range between the 1.1209 asian low and the 1.1219 asian high. This follows a NY recovery from the hot-PPI spike to the 1.1188 ppi low, which came as falling Treasury yields offset the US data. Higher lows from 1.1193 remain intact, RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, with price just above EMA20.
Support: 1.12086, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12295, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks 03:30 UTC (~2h), with ECB's Nagel at 02:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1219 asian high opens the 1.1229 london high, then the 24h high at 1.1240
Break below the 1.1209 asian low also breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Loss of 1.1200 puts the 1.1188 ppi low back in focus
01:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY recovery · RSI 43 · price 1.12117
Tight Asian range 1.1209–1.1219 above a rising higher-lows line from the NY session low.
Early Asia session is holding a ~10-pip range between the asian low at 1.1209 and the asian high at 1.1219, with price pinned just under EMA20/EMA50 and ATR(14) compressed near 3 pips. Yesterday's hot-PPI spike down to the 1.1188 ppi low was absorbed, and the NY lows around 1.1200 held while USD faded on lower yields, leaving a higher-lows line from 1.1193 intact.
Support: 1.12086, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12241, 1.12295
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~2h) could break the Asian range either way; ECB's Nagel speaks at 02:30 UTC
An M15 close below the 1.1209 asian low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1200 ny lows back in focus
An M15 close above the 1.1219 asian high reopens the 1.1224 ny high and the 1.1230 london high
Loss of the 1.1200 ny lows exposes the 1.1188 ppi low, the window low
Final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC lands around London open
Asian range 1.1209–1.1219 with lower highs, sitting at 50% of the late-NY rally.
Thursday's PPI spike to 1.1188 was fully reversed as falling US yields lifted the pair to the ny high at 1.1221 late in the session. Friday's Asia session has faded from the 1.1219 asian high with lower highs, and price now sits on the asian low near 1.1209, which lines up with the 50% retrace of the NY rally fib, below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.12086, 1.1204, 1.11987
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12214, 1.12295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1209 asian low and the 61.8% of the NY rally fib (1.1207) exposes the 1.1204 swing low and the 1.1199 ny low
Break of the asian lower highs line and a close above the 1.1219 asian high reopens the 1.1221 ny high and the 1.1230 london high
Fed Chair Warsh speaks 03:30 UTC (high impact), ECB's Nagel 02:30 UTC; either could break the Asian range
00:46 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 36 · price 1.12102
Lower highs from 1.1240 against higher lows off 1.1188; converging range.
Early Asia session is pressing the asian low at 1.1209 inside a thin 1.1209–1.1219 range. The late-NY push stalled at 1.1221. The 24h structure is a squeeze: highs are falling from the 1.1240 window high, and lows are rising from the 1.1188 PPI low, where the hot US PPI spike was absorbed as falling yields kept USD heavy.
Support: 1.12086, 1.12035, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12241, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; Nagel at 02:30 UTC comes first
M15 close below the asian low 1.1209 breaks the rising support line and exposes the london low 1.1204, then the PPI low 1.1188
M15 close above the asian high 1.1219 and the falling resistance line opens the NY high 1.1224, with the window high 1.1240 above
Final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC is the London-open driver
Range 1.1188–1.1240 with lower highs; early Asia testing session low.
The hot-PPI spike to the 1.1188 ppi low was absorbed as falling yields weighed on USD. Since then, a lower-highs line from yesterday's 1.1240 asia high has capped the bounce at the 1.1224 ny high and 1.1221. Early Asia is pressing the 1.1209 session low, about 40% back into the NY swing from 1.1193, with RSI(14) near 34, price under both EMAs and ATR compressed to ~3.4 pips.
Support: 1.12088, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.12241, 1.12405
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1209 session low exposes the 50% NY swing fib near 1.1207 and the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.1219 session high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1224 ny high, then the 1.1240 asia high
Loss of the 1.1188 ppi low breaks the range floor
Nagel at 02:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read from compressed ATR
Range 1.1188–1.1224 since US data; early Asia drift lower.
Ranging 1.1188–1.1224 since the hot US PPI spike to the 1.1188 range floor faded as yields fell. The early Asia session has slipped off the 1.1221 range top to 1.1210, near the 38.2–50% retrace of the NY swing fib, with ATR(14) compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1204 swing low (61.8% of the NY swing fib) exposes the 1.1188 range floor
M15 close above the 1.1221 range top opens the 1.1240 24h high
Nagel at 02:30 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish Warsh puts 1.1200 at risk
Higher lows from 1.1188 stalling under 1.1221, tight drift at 38.2% fib.
Thursday's Asian rally set a 1.1184–1.1240 range, with the 1.1240 asian high as the day's top. London and NY stayed inside it. Hot US PPI drove a brief false break under 1.1200 to the 1.1188 post-ppi low, which was bought back as yields fell. Since the 1.1221 late ny high, price has drifted in a thin 1.1211–1.1219 band. It is holding the session low at the 38.2% fib and sitting on the EMA50 ahead of Warsh.
Support: 1.1211, 1.1204, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1221, 1.1230, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1211 session low exposes the 1.1204 swing low at the 61.8% fib
Reclaim of the 1.1221 late ny high reopens the 1.1230 london high and 1.1240 asian high
Loss of the 1.1188 post-ppi low breaks the day's higher-low sequence
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB's Nagel at 02:30 UTC and final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC follow