EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
14:01 UTC
Uptrend from midweek low, pulling back · RSI 61 · price 1.1244
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's low; retest of prior high.
Wednesday's NY-session drop set the week low at 1.1113. Price then reversed sharply from Thursday's Asia session and extended through Friday's London session to the 1.1269 week high, a move driven by a softer USD on the AI-equity sell-off and lower yields, with hot US data largely ignored. The NY open pulled price back to the 1.1240 prior high, Thursday's peak, where it now sits just above EMA(20) near 1.1234; RSI(14) has eased from near 70 to the low 60s, and the higher lows from Thursday's 1.1188 low remain intact.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1208, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1300
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1240 prior high and EMA(20) shifts the read to a deeper pullback toward the 1.1208 friday low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Fri impulse
A break of 1.1208 and the higher lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% retracement near 1.1191
A close above the 1.1269 week high resumes the impulse and opens the path to the 1.1300 round number
Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings could revive USD demand and challenge the rebound from the 1.1113 week low
Higher lows since 1.1113; Thursday range broken to upside.
After Wednesday's collapse to the 1.1113 16-month low, an Asia-session reversal on Thursday reclaimed 1.1240. The pair then held a 1.1188–1.1240 range despite hot US PPI and retail sales. Friday's Asia and London sessions broke above the thu high to a 1.1269 week high as lower yields and AI-led risk-off weighed on the dollar, with the rising lows trendline from Thursday's NY dip intact. Price sits above the ema20 (~1.1234) with RSI(14) near 71, and the friday low at 1.1208 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.1113–1.1269 move.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1234, 1.1208
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1300
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read in the next bar
H1 close back below the thu high at 1.1241 and the ema20 would put the breakout in question
A break of the rising lows trendline and the friday low at 1.1208 (38.2% fib) would point to a deeper retracement of the week's rebound
Acceptance above the 1.1269 week high brings the 1.1300 round number into play, with the 1.1340/50 zone beyond
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 71 · price 1.12575
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; 1.1240 prior highs broken.
EUR/USD has retraced all of Wednesday's NY-session CPI drop to the 1.1113 week low. A USD unwind on easing yields and the AI equity sell-off carried price through the 1.1240 prior highs during London today, to a 1.1269 week high. Demand absorbed the hot US PPI dip to the 1.1188 Thu low, and the Friday base at 1.1208 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse. Price is well above EMA(20) near 1.1232, and RSI(14) around 71 is in overbought territory.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12076, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12691, 1.1280
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below 1.1240 prior highs would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1208 friday base (38.2%) breaks the higher-lows sequence
H1 close above 1.1280 range top (UOB 1–3 week band) extends the move beyond the week high
Higher lows since Wed 1.1113; Thu high cleared in Asia.
The rebound from Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 1.1113 week low has built a sequence of higher lows. Thursday's US-data dip to the thu low at 1.1188 was absorbed, and Friday's Asia session cleared the 1.1241 thu high before London extended to a 1.1257 week high. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 1.1229 with RSI(14) near 69, as the AI-led equity sell-off and Warsh's no-guidance remarks keep USD heavy despite the hot PPI.
Support: 1.1241, 1.1220, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1257, 1.1280, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1241 thu high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.1220 pullback low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the thu low at 1.1188
Acceptance above the 1.1257 week high brings the 1.1280 range top and the 1.1300 round number into play
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read; recent US beats have been faded
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, rebound extending to week high · RSI 68 · price 1.12448
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.1113 low; 1.1240 prior high cleared.
EUR/USD has fully retraced Wednesday's CPI-driven NY-session drop to the 1.1113 week low. The rebound was led by Asia-session buying as softer Treasury yields and AI-equity unease weighed on the USD. Higher lows at the 1.1188 thu low and Friday's 1.1208 asia low framed the advance, and London has now pushed through the 1.1240 prior high to a 1.1249 week high, with price above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1208, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1240 prior high would mark Friday's push as a false break
Loss of the 1.1208 asia low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Acceptance above the 1.1249 week high puts the 1.1280 range top in view
38.2% of the Wed-Fri rally sits near 1.1197, just above the 1.1188 thu low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.1250 cap · RSI 66 · price 1.12385
Higher lows off Wednesday's 1.1113 low; Thursday range top cleared.
EUR/USD has fully retraced Wednesday's hot-US-CPI drop to 1.1113. The recovery came on broad USD weakness as Treasury yields slid to three-week lows. Thursday's 1.1188–1.1240 range printed higher lows (thu low 1.1188, then 1.1208 in Asia), and today's Asian-session push carried into London open to a 1.1249 week high. That clears Thursday's 1.1240 prior high. RSI(14) sits near 66 and price is about 17 pips above EMA(20) at 1.1221, with ATR(14) around 13 pips.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1221, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1249, 1.1280
What it said to watch
Final eurozone HICP/core HICP at 09:00 UTC lands on the current bar; core vs the 2.5% forecast could shift the read
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC during NY hours is the next USD-side risk
H1 close above the 1.1249 week high / 1.1250 opens the path to the 1.1280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.1240 prior high on a retest returns price to Thursday's range
H1 close below the ema20 near 1.1221 and the higher-lows trendline weakens the uptrend read
A break of the 1.1188 thu low exposes the 50% retracement of the rally near 1.1181
Wednesday's NY-session US CPI drop to the 1.1113 week low was fully retraced as falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar lifted the pair to 1.1241 by Thursday's Asia session. Thursday's NY-session PPI dip held at 1.1188, a higher low near the 38.2% fib of the week-low-to-high move. Friday's Asia push retested the 1.1241 week high with RSI(14) near 59 versus the mid-70s on the first test, a bearish divergence. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.1222 and a rising support line from the 1.1188 higher low.
Support: 1.1222, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1241 week high and the 1.1250 round number clears the twice-tested cap
Loss of EMA(20) and rising support near 1.1217 puts the 1.1188 higher low back in focus; a break there exposes the 1.1113 week low
Final euro-area HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Recovered off week low, ranging below week high · RSI 59 · price 1.12243
V-shaped recovery from Wednesday's low into a 1.1188–1.1241 range with higher lows.
The week's dominant move was Wednesday's NY-session drop to the 1.1113 week low after the hot US CPI. Thursday's Asia session fully reversed it as US yields fell, and price has since held a 1.1188–1.1241 range. The week high at 1.1241 rejected a second test in Friday's Asia session, leaving a potential double top with the Thursday low at 1.1188 as the neckline. Price sits just above the ema20 near 1.1218 with RSI(14) near 59, and higher lows since Thursday are intact.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1241 week high and the 1.1250 round number invalidates the double-top read
H1 close below the ema20 and the higher-lows line puts the 1.1188 thursday low back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1188 thursday low confirms a range break toward the 50% retracement near 1.1177; the week low at 1.1113 sits below that
06:01 UTC
Recovering from midweek low, momentum pausing at week high · RSI 63 · price 1.12297
V-shaped rebound, then a 1.1188–1.1241 range with higher lows.
EUR/USD has retraced all of Wednesday's CPI-driven slide to the 1.1113 week low. The rebound ran from late NY Wednesday into Thursday's Asia session as US yields fell and the dollar softened, and Thursday's NY dip on the hot PPI held the 1.1188 Thu low, close to the 38.2% retracement of that move. Price has mostly held above EMA(20) since, with RSI(14) near 63, and Friday's Asia push on Warsh's remarks retested the 1.1241 week high and met rejection, leaving a range with higher lows along a rising trendline.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1241 week high and the 1.1250 round number would break the range top
Loss of EMA(20) and the higher-lows trendline puts the 1.1200 pivot and 1.1188 Thu low back in play
Break below the 1.1188 Thu low exposes the 61.8% retracement near 1.1162, then the week low
Euro-area final HICP at 09:00 UTC and US industrial production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Recovery from week low, momentum fading at highs · RSI 66 · price 1.12352
V-shaped rebound from 1.1113 into a 1.1188–1.1241 range; higher lows since Thursday.
EUR/USD has erased Wednesday's NY-open slide to the 1.1113 week low. The recovery came in a dollar-driven surge through Thursday's Asia session as US yields fell. Thursday's dip to the 1.1188 ppi low on the hot US PPI held as a higher low, and price now sits above the ema20 (~1.1215) and EMA(50) (~1.1203). Friday's Asia push above the 1.1230 range top is retesting the 1.1241 week high, but RSI(14) near 65 is below the ~72 reading at the first touch, a bearish divergence at the level.
Support: 1.1230, 1.1215, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1241, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1241 week high clears the double test; 1.1250 round number is the next reference
Slip back below the 1.1230 range top and the ema20 at 1.1215 returns price to Thursday's range
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 1.1188 ppi low undercuts the 1.1200 pivot and the recovery structure
Final euro-area HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery from week low, now compressing · RSI 53 · price 1.12175
Pennant above 1.1200 after Thursday's impulse; lower highs and higher lows.
Wednesday's hot-CPI drop through Monday's lows to the 1.1113 week low proved a false break, and a USD-led rally in Thursday's Asia session lifted the pair to the 1.1241 week high as Treasury yields slid. Since then price has compressed into a pennant above the 1.1200 round number, with highs stepping down from the 1.1230 lower high and lows rising from the 1.1188 Thursday low, which held near the 38.2% fib of the rally. Price sits just above EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) is flat near 53, ATR has contracted to ~11 pips, and the Asian high at 1.1220 is the first cap inside the pattern.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
H1 close above the pennant top and the 1.1230 lower high puts the 1.1241 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 Thursday low breaks the pennant base and reopens the path toward the 1.1113 week low
Fed Chair Warsh's remarks today are the main swing factor; a hawkish lean that lifts yields could materially shift this read
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could set direction out of the pennant during the London session or NY session
03:02 UTC
V-shaped recovery from week low, now coiling · RSI 55 · price 1.12136
Post-impulse pennant: lower highs from 1.1240, higher lows from 1.1188.
Wednesday's NY-session CPI reaction drove the pair to a 17-month low at 1.1113. It then reversed in a V-shaped rally through Thursday's Asia session to the 1.1240 week high, as falling US yields outweighed the hawkish data. Demand stepped in on Thursday's PPI dip at 1.1188, near the 38.2% level of the impulse fib, and on the 1.1200 round number retest. Price is now compressing in a pennant between lower highs from 1.1240 and higher lows, with the Asia low at 1.1208 and price just above EMA(20) near 1.1209. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR(14) has contracted to about 12 pips.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC lands inside the pennant apex and could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1224 thu ny high breaks the lower-highs line and opens a retest of the 1.1240 week high
Loss of the 1.1208 asia low breaks the higher-lows line; failure at the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1188 ppi low
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC (core f/c 2.5% YoY) is the next euro-side catalyst
V-shaped reversal into a pennant: lower highs from 1.1241, higher lows from 1.1188.
Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 1.1113 week low was fully retraced in Thursday's Asia session, with the rally tagging the 1.1241 week high as US yields fell and the dollar shrugged off hot data. Since then price has compressed into a pennant, with lower highs from 1.1241 and higher lows from the 1.1188 PPI low. That dip held near the 38.2% fib, and price now sits just above EMA(20) near 1.1209. RSI(14) around 53 is neutral, and ranges have contracted through the Asia session above 1.1200 psych.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.1230, 1.1241
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1222 lower high and pennant top, then the 1.1230 London high, opens a retest of the 1.1241 week high
Failure to hold 1.1200 psych and the 1.1188 PPI low breaks the higher-low sequence and the 38.2% fib, exposing the 1.1113 week low
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker) and ECB Nagel at 02:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Final EZ HICP at 09:00 UTC: a core revision away from the 2.5% forecast could break the pennant
01:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery, now stalling · RSI 49 · price 1.12107
Lower highs compressing above 1.1200 after rebound from week low.
Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 1.1113 week low, a 17-month low, has been fully retraced. The rebound ran through Thursday's Asia session on falling US yields and printed the week high at 1.1241, back above Monday's opening area. Since then price has compressed into a sequence of lower highs (1.1241, 1.1230, 1.1224, 1.1221) while the 1.1200 psych level held. A brief false break to the 1.1188 PPI low on the hot US print was bought back within the hour. Price now sits on EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement of the rebound, with RSI(14) flat near 49 as momentum fades.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12214, 1.12405, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1221 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 1.1241 week high and psych 1.1250 back in play
Failure at 1.1200 psych and a close below the 1.1188 PPI low exposes the 38.2–50% rebound fib zone at 1.1192–1.1177
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC; a hawkish lean on October hike odds could materially shift this read
Final euro area HICP Fri 09:00 UTC (core y/y f/c 2.5%) lands into the London session
Lower highs off 1.1240 week high, compressing above ema20.
Wednesday's NY-session slide set the week low at 1.1113. Price then recovered the whole move in Asia hours on Thursday to a 1.1240 week high as US yields fell. The hot PPI and retail sales prints in the first hour of NY knocked price to the 1.1188 ppi low, close to the 38.2% level of the recovery fib, and it met a rejection there and closed back above 1.1200. Since then price has held just above a flattening EMA(20) near 1.1209, with RSI(14) holding the mid-50s and a line of lower highs from the week high capping each push, including the 1.1230 london high.
Support: 1.12087, 1.11883, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.12295, 1.12405, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1230 london high reopens the 1.1240 week high and the 1.1250 round number
Failure to hold 1.1200 and a close below the 1.1188 ppi low exposes the 50% recovery fib near 1.1177, then the week low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC is the main risk to this read; a hawkish tilt toward an October hike could unwind the yield-driven rebound
Final euro area HICP at 09:00 UTC; an upward core revision would test whether the market holds above ema20