19:01 UTC
Downtrend since Jan 2026 high, momentum stalling · RSI 38 · price 1.12209
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.2083; two-week pause above oct low.
Regime turned to a downtrend after the late-January 2026 rejection at 1.2083. The pair has since printed lower highs at 1.1849 and the August lower high at 1.1711, and lower lows at 1.1411, 1.1324 and the oct low at 1.1113. Price at 1.1221 sits well below the falling W1 EMA(50) near 1.1530, and the former june low at 1.1324 now caps rebounds. Broad EZ PMI misses, France back in contraction and wider OAT-Bund spreads drove the latest leg toward the 1.1200 handle, though the last two weeks have stalled above the oct low. RSI(14) near 38 is not at an extreme.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1065, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1324, 1.1530, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the oct low at 1.1113 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 2025 low at 1.1065 and the 1.1000 psych level
- ECB and Fed decisions next week, with any December-hike signalling, could materially shift this read
- A weekly close back above the june low at 1.1324 would mark the first break in the lower-low sequence since Q2
- The 61.8% retracement aligns with the lower high at 1.1711; only a reclaim of that zone would challenge the downtrend regime