Sequential lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 swing high, with EMA20 below EMA50 and price under both for the last two weeks. The 1.1460-1.1495 band that contained price for four sessions gave way, and the last three bars printed a fresh low at 1.1429 before a shallow bounce into the 1.1449 close — the digest attributes the pressure to Fed tightening bets holding DXY above 100 alongside German and French political-fiscal risk. ATR(14) near 20 pips has expanded on the break rather than compressed, consistent with an impulse leg still unfolding.
Support: 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1495, 1.1520, 1.1556
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 1.1495 range top would neutralise the breakdown read
Acceptance above 1.1520 prior range would be the first sign the lower-high sequence is stalling
Failure to hold the 1.1429 swing low exposes the 1.1400 round number
Wednesday flash PMIs (euro area 08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) are the highest-impact prints of the week and can materially reset this structure
Lower highs and lower lows; fresh window low at 1.1430.
Three weeks of stair-stepping lower: each consolidation shelf (1.1650s, then 1.1580s, then 1.1530s) has broken down, and the 1.1455/1.1495 shelf held for roughly a dozen bars before the last two sessions took price through it to a fresh window low at 1.1430. Price trades below both EMA20 (~1.1470) and EMA50, which remain in bearish sequence, and ATR(14) near 19 pips has widened on the break versus the compressed shelf that preceded it. The driver per the digest is hawkish ECB pricing already discounted while DXY holds above 100 — hot euro PPI and in-line HICP delivered no lift, leaving EUR at 7-week lows.
Support: 1.14304, 1.1400, 1.1330
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.14975, 1.15449
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.1430 window low keeps the 1.1400 round number and then the 1.1320 june lows in play
An H4 close back above 1.1470 (ema20) would be the first break of the lower-high sequence since the shelf gave way
Reclaiming 1.14975 (prior high) would invalidate the range break read
Wednesday's flash eurozone and US PMIs (07:15-13:45 UTC) are the dominant scheduled catalyst and could materially shift this structure
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending but decelerating · RSI 40 · price 1.14625
Lower highs and lower lows; three-day consolidation just broken lower.
Sequential lower highs from 1.16537 have compressed EURUSD into a tight three-day shelf around 1.1455-1.1495, and the latest impulse punched through it to a new swing low at 1.14336 before closing back at 1.14625 — a false break so far rather than acceptance lower. Price remains beneath both the ema20 near 1.1475 and a much higher EMA50, with the hawkish-Fed/soft-EUR mix from last week's FOMC path upgrade and French-German political risk the backdrop to the slide. ATR(14) near 19 pips shows a contained, grinding regime rather than an expanding one, with the prior high at 1.14975 the first structural hurdle and 1.1520 the range cap.
Support: 1.14336, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.14975, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.14336 swing low confirms continuation and puts the 1.1400 round number in focus
Reclaim and hold above the 1.15200 range cap would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Failure to close back above the ema20 at 1.1475 keeps the false break read fragile
Eurozone and US flash PMIs Wednesday (07:30 and 13:45 UTC) are the main scheduled risk to this structure
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows; three-week slide from 1.1679, with the last two weeks a stair-step down into a 1.1445-1.1495 shelf now giving way.
EURUSD has been carving lower highs and lower lows for three weeks, from 1.1679 to the fresh seven-week low at 1.1443 printed on the latest bar — the leg lower dating from the hawkish Fed repricing that lifted the dollar back above DXY 100. The past five sessions compressed into a 1.1445-1.1495 shelf with ATR(14) near 18 pips, and the latest candle has broken the floor of that consolidation with price below both EMA20 (~1.1476) and EMA50 (~1.1500). RSI(14) at ~34 is soft without being oversold, so the breakdown is not yet stretched.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1476, 1.1495, 1.1520
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below 1.1445 keeps the 1.1400 psych level and June's 1.1325 june lows as the next structural references
An H4 close back above the 1.1495 range high would invalidate the range break read; 1.1520 prior low is the level that would signal the decline stabilising
Reclaiming the 1.1476 ema20 on a closing basis is the first sign the lower-high sequence is stalling
Wednesday's euro area flash PMIs (07:15/07:30 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) are the main scheduled risks that could reshape this structure
Lower highs and lower lows, now coiling above the seven-wk low.
The sequence of lower highs and lower lows that has run for three weeks accelerated after the hawkish FOMC repricing, with the last impulse leg dropping from the 1.1556 prior high to a 1.14546 seven-wk low. The last fifteen bars have gone sideways in a 1.1455–1.1497 band, with the range cap at 1.1497 capping three attempts and price holding below both EMA20 and the H4 ema50 near 1.1520. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips from the 25-plus readings seen into the low, a contraction typical of a pause rather than a completed base.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1520, 1.1556
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1497 range cap would break the consolidation and put the 1.1520 ema50 back in play
Failure to hold 1.1455 confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.1400 psych area
Eurozone flash PMIs Wed 07:15 GMT and US S&P Global PMIs 13:45 GMT are the main structural risk to this compression
Lagarde 12:00 GMT today could produce a knee-jerk move inside the current band
Lower highs into a two-week base; 43-pip range compressing above the low.
Sequence of lower highs from 1.1654 down through 1.1556 has left EURUSD in a shallow base since the hawkish-Fed repricing flushed the pair to a seven-week low at the 1.1454 range low. The last fourteen bars have chopped between that low and the 1.1497 range high with ATR(14) down to roughly 14 pips — a clear compression regime — while price sits under both the 1.1479 ema20 and the 1.1513 ema50. Twin lows at 1.1454/1.1455 give the base a double bottom look, but repeated failure at 1.1490-1.1497 shows supply still capping every attempt.
Support: 1.1454, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1479, 1.1497, 1.1513
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1450 psych area confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Reclaim of the 1.1479 ema20 and a close above the 1.1497 range high would be the first structural break of the lower-high sequence
Only a push back through the 1.1513 ema50 would neutralise the H4 downtrend
Lagarde 12:00 UTC today and Wednesday's EZ and US flash PMIs are the events most likely to resolve the compression