Lower highs through NY, flat Asia range above 1.1446.
London and NY hours sold EUR/USD from 1.1478 down to a 1.14292 ny low on the sub-100.00-DXY-breaking dollar bid, before a rebound capped at the 1.14548 session high. Price has since gone flat into the Asia handover, pinned between the 1.14455 asia low and 1.1449 with ATR(14) compressed to ~3 pips, RSI(14) mid-40s and the chain of lower highs still intact.
Support: 1.14455, 1.1440, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14612
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14455 asia low re-opens the 1.1440 round number and the 1.14292 ny low
A close above the 1.14548 session high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 1.14612 prior high back in range
Euro-area flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the catalysts most likely to break this thin Asian range
Lower highs off 1.1478 into 1.1429, now a tight 1.1446-1.1450 balance.
London and NY hours sold EUR/USD from 1.1478 to 1.1429 — a dollar-led leg with DXY above 100.00 — before a bounce stalled at the 1.14548 session high and price settled into a 1.1446-1.1450 coil through early Asia. RSI(14) near 44 and ATR(14) around 3 pips show the move is fully parked; the 38.2% retrace of the down-leg sits right at current price, with the range top at 1.1450 capping.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14548
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14455 asia low re-opens 1.1440 and the 1.14292 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.14548 session high would break the chain of lower highs
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT are the next catalyst and can void this low-volatility read
Lower highs / lower lows into a tight late-session compression.
EUR/USD sold off through London and NY from the 1.1478 Asian high to a 1.14292 session low, the slide driven by the dollar bid (DXY back above 100.00 on hawkish Fedspeak) rather than euro-specific news. Late NY recovered to 1.14548 (ny high) — the 38.2% retrace of the drop — and price has since compressed into a 1.14455–1.14490 box with ATR(14) down to ~3.4 pips in thin early-Asia liquidity. Lower highs off the 1.14705 london high remain intact and RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14406, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14455 range low re-exposes the 1.14406 swing low and then 1.14292 session low
A close above the 1.14548 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence off the london high
EZ flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the events most likely to end this compression
Lower highs / lower lows into 1.1429, now coiled 1.1446-1.1455.
Tuesday's London-NY slide carved a chain of lower highs down to the 1.14292 day low — the softest level in weeks as DXY held above 100.00 on hawkish Fedspeak — before a late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.14548 session high. Post-close bars are dead flat in a 1.14455-1.14500 band with ATR down to roughly 4.6 pips; nothing structural in play until one side of that box gives.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.1462
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14548 session high would break the sequence of lower highs and open the 1.14620 swing high
Loss of the 1.14455 range low puts the 1.14292 day low back in play
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15 UTC, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00) land just beyond this window and can void the current compression
Chain of lower highs / lower lows, now flat 1.1445-1.1455.
Price was sold from the 1.1478 Asian high through London and into NY, printing the 1.14292 session low as the dollar held its bid above DXY 100. A late-NY bounce tagged the 1.14548 session high and has since gone flat around 1.1448 on very thin Asia-open volume, with ATR(14) down to roughly 5 pips.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14694
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14455 micro base re-opens the 1.14292 session low
M15 close above the 1.14548 session high breaks the sequence of lower highs running from the 1.14694 london high
Eurozone flash PMIs 08:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the next catalysts capable of resetting this range
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, late bounce stalling · RSI 53 · price 1.1447
Chain of lower highs/lower lows into 1.1429, now flat consolidation in thin Asia trade.
London and NY sold EUR through a clean lower-high chain from 1.1478 into 1.1429 as the dollar held above DXY 100 on hawkish Fed pricing, with the late-NY bounce capping at the 1.14548 ny high. Price has since gone flat between the 1.14455 asia low and 1.1449 on minimal volume, RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 1.14455, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14548 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence built through NY
Loss of the 1.14455 asia low reopens the 1.14292 session low
Eurozone flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC can reprice this range within hours
Lower highs into 1.1429 low, then sideways base 1.1443–1.1455.
London and NY hours drove a chain of lower highs from 1.1478 down to the 1.1429 session low as the dollar pushed to two-month highs on hawkish Fed pricing. Since then price has based and is chopping in a 1.1443–1.1455 band, with the 1.1455 ny high capping the bounce; late-session volume is thin and ATR(14) has compressed to ~4.5 pips.
Support: 1.1444, 1.1429
Resistance: 1.1455, 1.1466
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1455 ny high would open the path to 1.1466 prior high
Loss of 1.1444 ema20 re-exposes the 1.1429 session low
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC are the first material catalyst and can reset this range
Lower highs into 1.14292, corrective recovery stalling at the 38.2% retrace.
NY hours ground EUR/USD down to a session low of 1.14292 as the dollar held above DXY 100 on hawkish Fedspeak, before a late bounce stalled around the 38.2% retrace of the 1.14779–1.14292 decline. Price is now pinned at 1.14455 in near-zero-volume post-NY-close trade, just above EMA20 but still under EMA50, with the 1.14548 NY high capping and the chain of lower highs intact.
Support: 1.14403, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14675
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14548 ny high breaks the lower-high chain and invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Loss of the 1.14403 swing low reopens the 1.14292 session low
Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts capable of resetting this range
Current bars are thin Asia-open liquidity — range extremes carry less weight until London volume returns
Lower highs through NY, twin lows at 1.1429 then higher lows into the close.
EUR/USD sold off through the London and early-NY hours to a session low of 1.14292 as the dollar held its two-month highs above DXY 100, then based twice around 1.1430 and recovered to 1.14548 late in the NY session. Price has gone flat between the pullback low at 1.14465 and that NY high on collapsing late-session activity, with RSI(14) back at the 50 midline and EMA20/EMA50 compressed just beneath spot.
Support: 1.14465, 1.14425, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14548 breaks the lower-highs line off the london high
Loss of the 1.14425 higher low reopens the 1.14292 session low
Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC can reset this range within hours
Lower highs into 1.14292 session low, now flat post-NY consolidation.
Price slid through London and NY in a clean lower-highs chain from the 1.14779 asia high to a 1.14292 session low at 16:00 UTC, the pressure consistent with DXY holding above 100 on hawkish Fedspeak. A late-NY recovery stalled at the 1.14548 ny high and the last six bars are pinned in a 1.1447–1.1449 coil on the Asia open, sitting exactly on the 38.2% retrace of the day's decline with RSI(14) back to a neutral 56 and ATR(14) just 5 pips.
Support: 1.1443, 1.1433, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14649, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14548 ny high would break the lower-highs chain; 1.14649 london high the next reference
Loss of the 1.14430 ema20 area reopens 1.1433 prior low and the 1.14292 session low
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC, then US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC, are the events likely to break this 5-pip consolidation
Lower highs into 1.14292 session low, now consolidating in a 1.1447–1.1455 box.
London and NY hours sold EUR through a chain of lower highs from 1.14779 into a 1.14292 session low — the softest level in seven weeks as DXY held above 100 on hawkish Fedspeak. A late-NY bounce tagged 1.14548 and faded; the last four bars are pinned in a 6-pip box just above the 1.14400 minor low with ATR(14) near 5 pips and RSI(14) back to mid-range.
Support: 1.1440, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.1466
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14400 re-exposes the 1.14292 session low and confirms continuation of the lower-highs sequence
A 15m close above the 1.14548 late ny high would break the descending lower highs line off 1.14779
Euro area flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) land within hours and can void this narrow consolidation read
Thin end-of-session liquidity — current range may not survive the Asia open
Lower highs into 1.1429 base, now higher lows off it.
NY hours ground EUR/USD down to a 1.14292 session low as hawkish Fedspeak kept DXY above 100, then a late-session bounce tagged 1.14548 before fading back to 1.1448, just above the ema20. Price is now flat-lining on 12-lot volume into rollover, holding a chain of higher lows above the 1.14400 psych level but still under the broader lower-high sequence from 1.1469.
Support: 1.14445, 1.1440, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14675
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.14400 psych level re-exposes the 1.14292 session low
Acceptance above the 1.14548 late ny high would extend the corrective leg toward the 1.14675 ny high
Asia session liquidity is thin — range expansion unlikely until London
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 GMT and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs into the 1.1429 ny low, then higher lows through the NY afternoon.
London-NY sold EURUSD from 1.14779 to a 1.14292 ny low as hawkish Fedspeak kept DXY above 100.00; the last five hours have built higher lows off that base, with a push to the 1.14548 session high rejected and price closing back on the ema20 at 1.14443. Volume is thinning into the end of NY and price is sitting effectively on the EMA50, RSI(14) back to neutral at ~52, ATR(14) around 5 pips.
Support: 1.14443, 1.14392, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14585, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14548 session high would extend the late-NY recovery toward the 1.14585 prior pivot
Loss of the 1.14392 swing low re-opens the 1.14292 ny low
Eurozone and US flash PMIs later Wednesday could reset this intraday read
Double bottom near 1.1430, higher lows into late NY.
London and early NY pressed EUR/USD to a session low of 1.14292 — seven-week lows with DXY holding above 100.00 — before a matching low at 1.14303 formed a double bottom. Late NY ground out higher lows to a session high of 1.14548, with the last bars consolidating above the 1.14463 pullback low; RSI(14) has recovered to ~53 and price sits just above EMA20 and a flat EMA50.
Support: 1.14463, 1.14392, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.14607
What it said to watch
Close below 1.14392 swing low restores the lower-low sequence toward 1.14292
Acceptance above 1.14548 opens the 1.14607 prior high
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT Wednesday can reset this intraday read
Lower highs / lower lows into NY, now reclaiming the 1.1441 base.
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.14779 Asia-London high through to the 1.14292 session low printed during NY hours, with EUR at seven-week lows while DXY held above 100.00. The last hour of NY broke the 1.14410 range base upward to a bounce high of 1.14548, RSI(14) recovering to the high-60s and ATR(14) at ~5 pips.
Support: 1.1441, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14548, 1.1459, 1.14659
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.14590 prior high would break the chain of lower highs from 1.14659
Loss of the 1.14410 range base puts the 1.14292 session low back in play
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 GMT tomorrow can reset this intraday structure
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce late NY · RSI 62 · price 1.1447
Lower highs into 1.1429 day low, higher lows since.
NY session ground EUR/USD down to a 1.1429 day low with the dollar at two-month highs (DXY above 100), before a higher-low chain lifted the close back to 1.1447, just under the 1.1450 round number. The double bottom at 1.1429/1.1430 has cleared its 1.1439 neckline; price is back above EMA20 but still below EMA50 and some 25 pips off the 1.1470 day high, with ATR(14) at only ~4.5 pips.
Support: 1.1440, 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1459, 1.1470
What it said to watch
M15 close back under 1.1440 breaks the higher-low chain off the 1.1429 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1459 swing high needed before the intraday downtrend read is in question
Loss of the day low keeps the 1.1400 psych handle in play
Eurozone flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC can reset this range
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 49 · price 1.14432
Lower highs / lower lows into 1.1429, shallow corrective bounce.
London sold the Asian high at 1.1478 and the sequence of lower highs held all through NY, bottoming at the 1.1429 session low into the 16:00 UTC fix as the firm dollar and the soft EZ consumer confidence miss kept pressure on. The last three hours are a shallow bounce off a higher low at 1.1433, stalling into the 38.2% fib of the decline at 1.1445 with RSI(14) back to a neutral 49 and ATR(14) just 4.8 pips — thin late-session conditions.
Support: 1.1433, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.1452
What it said to watch
Close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1445 would extend the bounce toward the 1.1452 prior swing
Loss of the 1.1433 higher low re-opens the 1.1429 session low
ECB Nagel comments and Wednesday's euro-area flash PMIs are the next scheduled risks to this intraday structure
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 56 · price 1.14421
Lower highs / lower lows into 1.14292, now a tight 15-pip consolidation off the low.
NY hours extended the London decline through the 1.1433 swing low to a session low at 1.14292 before a recovery leg, with a firm dollar on hawkish Fedspeak the driver. Price has since coiled in a 4-pip band under the 1.14432 range top, ATR(14) compressed to ~5 pips and RSI(14) back at 56 from oversold territory.
Support: 1.14392, 1.1433, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14432, 1.1450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14432 range top would end the lower-high sequence and put 1.14500 psych into play
Loss of the 1.14392 range base re-exposes the 1.14330 swing low and the 1.14292 session low
ECB Nagel speaking 19:30 UTC can break this late-NY consolidation; EZ and US flash PMIs are the larger risk ahead
The NY leg carried EURUSD from 1.1469 down to a session low of 1.14292 in a chain of lower highs, with a firm dollar and the French/German fiscal risk premium behind the slide. Last eight bars have built a micro base between 1.1430 and the 1.14432 session high, RSI(14) back to the mid-50s and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1433
Resistance: 1.14432, 1.1450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14432 session high puts the 1.14500 round number back in play and ends the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.14292 session low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.1400 area
ECB Nagel speaking at 19:30 UTC — headline risk inside the next bar or two
Wednesday's flash PMIs (EZ 08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) can reset this intraday range
Chain of lower highs/lower lows, now consolidating above the session low.
Lower highs through the NY session dragged EUR/USD to a session low at 1.14292, consistent with the firm dollar keeping the pair pinned near seven-week lows. The last eight bars have consolidated 1.14292–1.14437 after the London close, with the 1.14400 round number back underfoot and the micro high at 1.14437 capping the bounce; 1.14500 broken support and the 1.14573 prior high sit above. RSI(14) ~53 and ATR(14) ~4.6 pips — a tight, low-range end to the session.
Support: 1.1440, 1.14292
Resistance: 1.14437, 1.1450, 1.14573
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14500 would break the NY sequence of lower highs
Loss of the 1.14292 session low extends the lower-low chain
ECB Nagel speech at 19:30 UTC is the immediate event risk into the close
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, base forming above session low.
NY session sold EUR in a clean lower-high chain from 1.14694 down to a 1.14292 session low around 16:00 UTC, with the soft Eurozone consumer confidence print (-16.5 vs -16) and a firm dollar behind the drift. Last two hours have based above 1.1433 and reclaimed the 1.14437 micro high area, RSI(14) back to the mid-40s from sub-30; ATR(14) only ~5 pips, so ranges are compressing into the late session.
Support: 1.1433, 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14437, 1.1452, 1.14594
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1452 swing high would break the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.14292 session low confirms continuation toward the 1.1400 round number
ECB Nagel speaks 19:30 UTC — inside the next bar period and capable of shifting this read
Wednesday flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, Eurozone 08:00 UTC) are the next structural catalyst
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the close · RSI 43 · price 1.14386
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, small bounce off the session low.
London took EUR down to 1.1433 and the NY session extended it to a fresh session low at 1.1429, keeping an unbroken chain of lower highs from 1.1470 — consistent with the softer euro-area consumer confidence print and a Dollar holding above 100 on DXY. Last hour has stabilised, with price pressing the 1.1442 bounce high while ATR(14) has compressed to under 7 pips, and RSI(14) at 43 sitting higher than at the 1.1433 low despite the lower low.
Support: 1.1433, 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1442, 1.1450
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1442 bounce high breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the 1.1450 swing pivot in play
Loss of 1.1429 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1400 psych level
ECB Nagel at 19:30 UTC lands inside the next few bars and could shift this read
Wednesday's euro-area and US flash PMIs are the dominant catalyst beyond today's range
Chain of lower highs/lower lows, now basing above the session low.
NY session extended the slide to 1.14292, a fresh session low and the weakest print since late July, with German political risk and a firm Dollar doing the work. Last three hours are a tight 1.1429–1.1439 base under the 1.1440 ema20; RSI(14) near 36 with no divergence yet, ATR(14) only ~5.5 pips so ranges are compressing into the late NY hours.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14386, 1.14404
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.14386 micro high and the 1.1440 ema20 would break the lower-high chain
Loss of 1.14292 session low confirms continuation toward the 1.1400 psych level
Eurozone flash PMIs Wed 08:00 UTC (France 07:15, Germany 07:30) can reset this intraday structure; ECB's Nagel 19:30 UTC tonight
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 36 · price 1.14331
Chain of lower highs and lower lows; last 6 bars coiling in a 9-pip box.
NY hours extended the slide from 1.14705 to a session low of 1.14292, keeping EUR pinned at 7-week lows after the soft eurozone consumer confidence miss (-16.5 vs -16) and a firm Dollar. Price is now flat-lining between 1.14292 and the 1.14386 bounce high, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR at ~5 pips — compression, not reversal.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14386, 1.14437
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14437 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.14292 session low extends the leg toward the 1.14200 round number
ECB's Nagel at 19:30 UTC and Wednesday's flash PMIs are the next catalysts that could reset this read
Lower highs and lower lows, now consolidating at the lows.
The London open broke price out of the 1.1463–1.1478 Asian range and NY hours extended a clean lower-high/lower-low chain down to 1.14292, the session low. Price is now pinned in a 1.1429–1.1439 consolidation late in the NY session with RSI(14) at 34 and ATR(14) compressed to ~5 pips, consistent with EUR sitting at 7-week lows on German political risk and a DXY above 100.
Support: 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1439, 1.1450
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1439 swing high would be the first higher high since London and break the lower-high chain
Recovery through 1.1450 prior swing would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1429 session low keeps the 1.1400 psych handle in play
ECB Nagel speaks at 19:30 UTC, then Wednesday's flash PMIs — either can reset this intraday structure
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, fresh session low at 1.14292.
London's slide from 1.14779 was partly retraced into midday, but the NY session resumed the lower-high chain and took out the earlier 1.1433 low with a fresh session low at 1.14292 — consistent with the firm-dollar, German/French political-risk backdrop keeping EUR pinned at 7-week lows. Price is holding a shallow bounce at 1.14358 with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 6.4 pips; both EMA20 and EMA50 sit above price.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14437, 1.14589
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close above the 1.14437 lower high would break the descending chain off 1.14694
Failure to hold 1.14292 on a retest confirms continuation toward the 1.14200 round number
Fed's Barkin speaking at 17:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel at 19:30 UTC can move price inside late NY hours
Wednesday's euro-area flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 UTC) are the dominant catalyst and could reset this intraday read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 09:45 UTC bounce high; fresh session low.
NY session extended the London slide, cutting through the 1.1434 London low and printing a session low at 1.1429, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR(14) around 6.4 pips. Price is now basing just above that session low, capped by the 1.1441 micro pivot, with EUR heavy on German political risk and a firm Dollar into Wednesday's flash PMIs.
Support: 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1441, 1.1446
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1446 swing high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1429 session low opens the 1.1400 round number
Barkin at 17:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel at 19:30 UTC can reshape the late-NY range
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, prior 1.1433 low taken out.
EUR/USD has ground steadily lower through the NY session, taking out the 1.1433 seven-week low and printing a session low at 1.14292 with RSI(14) near 24.5 — oversold but consistent with a trend, and ATR(14) only ~6 pips per bar. Sellers have capped every bounce since the 1.14705 NY high, with 1.14437 the nearest swing high; the digest ties the pressure to German/French political risk and a firm dollar rather than ECB pricing.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14437, 1.1450, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 1.14437 keeps the chain of lower highs intact
A close back above 1.14500 psych level would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 1.14292 session low opens the 1.1400 psych area
ECB's Nagel at 19:30 UTC is the only near-term event risk before Wed flash PMIs
Clean lower-high / lower-low chain since the London-NY transition.
NY hours have pushed EUR/USD through the 1.14336 London low to a fresh session low at 1.14292, with each bounce capped along a descending lower-high line from 1.14659. RSI(14) near 27 is oversold without any divergence yet; ATR(14) around 5.7 pips, and the slide fits the EUR-specific political-risk plus firm-USD backdrop flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1420
Resistance: 1.14437
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14437 lower high would be the first break in the lower-high chain
Sustained trade below 1.14292 session low exposes the 1.1420/1.1400 round number area
Fed's Barkin within the hour could reset the intraday range
Clean lower highs and lower lows through NY hours, fresh session low on the last bar.
Grinding lower all through the NY session — every bounce has capped below the previous swing high (1.14594, then 1.14522, then 1.14437) and the last bar closed on a fresh session low at 1.14306, through Tuesday's seven-week low area. RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme, and ATR(14) at ~6.5 pips shows an orderly, low-volatility drift rather than a flush; the market_context read has this as EUR-led weakness on German/French political risk rather than a fresh USD impulse.
Support: 1.14306, 1.1400, 1.1330
Resistance: 1.14437, 1.14522, 1.14594
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.14306 session low keeps the lower-low chain intact and puts the 1.1400 round number in play, with the 1.1330 june lows the extension zone
A 15-minute close back above the 1.14437 swing high would be the first break of the lower-high sequence
Fed's Barkin within the hour could re-rate the USD leg and shift this read
EZ and US flash PMIs tomorrow are the dominant near-term catalyst for this structure
Unbroken chain of lower highs and lower lows since the London-NY transition; fresh session low on the closing bar.
EUR ground lower through the NY session and took out the 1.1433 seven-week low, closing at 1.14323 — the session low and the weakest print in the window, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) near 25. Each bounce has stalled progressively lower (1.14594, 1.14520, 1.14437), consistent with the digest's read of EUR sold on German/French political risk against a firm dollar rather than a USD-specific driver.
Support: 1.14321, 1.1430, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14437, 1.1452, 1.14594
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.14437 prior high would break the lower-high chain that has held since the London-NY transition
Failure to hold 1.14321 session low keeps the 1.14300 psych level and then the 1.14000 round number in play
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel at 19:30 UTC fall within the next few bars and could reset this intraday read
ATR(14) at ~6 pips — bars have been expanding on the down legs, so range assumptions from earlier in the session are stale
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, day low being retested.
NY session has ground EURUSD down in a stair-step chain of lower highs from 1.14694, with the 1.14500 round number giving way and the last bars printing a session low at 1.14365 — just above the 1.14336 day low set in the London morning. Supply capped every bounce at successively lower levels (1.14594 the most recent lower high) as the EUR stayed offered near seven-week lows; RSI(14) at ~29 is stretched but not extreme, ATR(14) ~6 pips.
Support: 1.14365, 1.14336, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14594, 1.14694
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.14336 day low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.14300 round number
A close back above 1.14500 round number would break the chain of lower highs and neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC, then Wed flash PMIs, can materially shift this read within hours
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.14705 rebound high.
London hours flushed EURUSD to 1.14336 before a sharp V-recovery to the 1.14705 rebound high; NY hours have given all of it back in a clean sequence of lower highs, with the 1.1450 psych area capping the last three bounces and price now at 1.14433, the seven-week low area flagged in the EUR digest. RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 5.5 pips — momentum is with the downside but stretched short-term, with German/French political risk and a firm USD the stated drivers.
Support: 1.14394, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.14547, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14394 session low exposes the 1.14336 london low
A 15m close back above 1.14547 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection at the 1.1450 psych level keeps the descending channel intact
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC Wed could materially reset this intraday structure
Chain of lower highs and lower lows since the London-NY transition, price at session low.
NY hours have pressed EUR/USD through the 1.14520 broken shelf to a fresh session low at 1.14406, with every bounce capped under a descending line of lower highs from 1.14694. RSI(14) near 31 is stretched but not yet extreme, and the move fits the EUR-negative tone from German/French political risk plus a firm USD; ATR(14) is 6.1 pips per bar.
Support: 1.14406, 1.14336, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.1452, 1.14594, 1.14694
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.14406 session low turns attention to the 1.14336 swing low and the 1.14300 psych area
A reclaim of the 1.14520 broken shelf would break the lower-high chain and invalidate the downtrend read
Fed's Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the only near-term speaker risk into the close of the NY session
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into NY · RSI 36 · price 1.14506
Lower highs and lower lows since the 10:00 UTC session high.
London opened with a flush to 1.14336 before a full recovery to the 1.14705 session high; NY has since faded that bounce in a clean chain of lower highs, printing a fresh session low at 1.14458 with RSI(14) near 36. The soft Eurozone consumer confidence miss (-16.5) alongside a firm dollar keeps the pair pinned at the lower end of the 24h range, last 1.14506.
Support: 1.14458, 1.1440, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14594, 1.14705
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14594 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and invalidates the NY downtrend read
Loss of the 1.14458 session low exposes the 1.14400 psych level and then the 1.14336 london low
Fed Barkin at 17:00 UTC, then Eurozone flash PMIs (07:15-08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) tomorrow could reset this intraday structure
ATR(14) at ~5.6 pips — moves beyond that per bar signal a volatility expansion out of the current grind
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into NY · RSI 33 · price 1.14503
Chain of lower highs since the London rebound; price back pressing the day's lows.
London sold EUR hard into the london low at 1.14336 — German coalition risk and a firm dollar — before a sharp rebound to the 1.14705 swing high stalled. The NY session has printed successive lower highs and is closing back at the session low of 1.14495 with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR(14) around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.14495, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14594, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Close below 1.14495 re-opens the 1.1440 area and the london low at 1.14336
Reclaim of the 1.14594 minor high breaks the lower-high chain; only a push through the 1.14705 swing high repairs intraday structure
Fed speaker Barkin at 17:00 UTC is the nearest catalyst inside this session
Lower highs off 1.14705 after V-recovery from the london low.
London hours flushed EUR/USD from 1.14779 to a london low of 1.14336 on the firmer dollar and hawkish Fedspeak, followed by a sharp V-recovery into the 1.14705 ny high. Since then price has carved a clean chain of lower highs and is back under EMA20/EMA50 at 1.14530, retesting the 1.14515 swing low in the first hour of NY with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) at ~6 pips.
Support: 1.14515, 1.1440, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14595, 1.14705
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14515 swing low exposes the 1.14400 round number and the 1.14336 london low
Reclaim of the 1.14595 minor high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 1.14705 ny high back in play
Eurozone flash Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT) plus Williams 14:05 / Jefferson 14:20 land inside the next bars and can reset this range
Lower highs since the 1.14705 rebound peak, lows stepping down.
London hours saw a fast flush to 1.14336 — a false break that was immediately bought back to 1.14705 — and NY trade has since ground out lower highs into 1.14660 with lows stepping down to 1.14515. Firm USD on hawkish Fedspeak keeps EUR capped; RSI(14) near 43 and price under EMA20/EMA50 with ATR(14) about 6.5 pips.
Support: 1.14515, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.1466, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Close above 1.14660 breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 1.14705 rebound high
Loss of 1.14515 session low puts the 1.14336 spike low back in play
Eurozone flash Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT plus Fed speakers Williams (14:05) and Jefferson (14:20) can reset this intraday read within the next bars
Lower highs since the London low, holding above 1.1455.
London hours drove EUR/USD from 1.1478 down to a 1.1434 day low — fresh seven-week lows as hawkish Fedspeak and German/French political risk weighed — before a sharp rebound stalled at the 1.14705 session high. Since then a chain of lower highs has capped price and the last three bars have leaked back toward the 1.1455 swing low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price under both EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1434, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.1478
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1455 swing low re-opens 1.1450 psych and the 1.1434 day low
M15 close above the 1.14705 session high breaks the lower-high chain and puts 1.1478 prior high back in play
Fed's Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land inside the next few bars and could reprice this range
Lower highs since the london low, price back at the 50% retrace.
London hours cracked the overnight base and dumped EURUSD to 1.14336 — fresh seven-week lows on hawkish Fedspeak and German/French political risk — before a sharp snapback to 1.14705. Since then a shallow flag of lower highs has capped near 1.14660 and price has slid back to the session low at 1.14547, exactly the 50% retrace of the decline from 1.14779.
Support: 1.14547, 1.14463, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.1466, 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.14547 re-opens the 1.14463 swing low and the 1.14336 london low
Reclaim of the 1.14705 bounce high would break the lower-highs chain and invalidate the flag read
Eurozone Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC plus Fed's Williams 14:05 UTC and Jefferson 14:20 UTC land inside the next few bars
London range break lower, now consolidating under the rebound high.
London broke the Asian range floor and ran to 1.14336 before a sharp recovery, EUR pressured by hawkish Fedspeak and German/French political risk. Early NY hours are consolidating 1.14583–1.14705, with the rebound high capping and price sitting just under EMA20; RSI(14) back to neutral near 48.
Support: 1.14583, 1.14512, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14705 rebound high reopens the 1.14779 london high
Loss of the 1.14583 session low re-exposes 1.14512 swing low and the 1.14336 london low
Eurozone Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC and Fed's Williams/Jefferson 14:05/14:20 UTC can break this range inside the next few bars
Sharp London-open leg lower, then 10-pip chop under lower highs.
London open dumped EUR/USD ~45 pips to a day low at 1.14336 on the firm USD / German political backdrop, then the move was fully retraced back into the Asian range with a bounce high at 1.14705. Since 10:00 UTC price has ground sideways in a 1.1459–1.1470 band with a shallow sequence of lower highs; Lagarde's 12:00 GMT remarks drew no reaction, RSI(14) flat at 52.
Support: 1.1459, 1.14473, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1459 session low reopens 1.14473 rebound low and the 1.14336 day low
Reclaim of the 1.14705 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 1.14779 london high back in play
Eurozone Consumer Confidence 14:00 GMT plus Fed's Williams 14:05 / Jefferson 14:20 GMT land inside the next few bars and can break this range
ATR(14) at ~7 pips — the current chop is sub-average; a >10 pip bar signals the range is resolving
Lower highs into a tight range after the London flush.
London morning dumped EUR/USD to 1.1434 — the seven-week low area flagged around German political risk — before a sharp snapback to 1.14705. Since then price has coiled between the 1.1459 range low and a series of lower highs into 1.14664, RSI(14) back to a neutral 52 with ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 1.1459, 1.1434
Resistance: 1.14664, 1.14705
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14705 range high would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.1459 range low re-exposes the 1.1434 london low
Lagarde remarks and Eurozone Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT) land inside the next bars and can break this range
Fed speakers Williams/Jefferson from 14:05 GMT are the NY-session risk to the read
Lower lows into the london low, reclaimed; now coiling 1.1459-1.1470.
London hours extended the slide to a 1.14336 london low before an immediate 37-pip snapback through 1.14705, leaving that break of the 1.1445/1.1450 shelf unconfirmed, with the swing low at 1.14463 now back above price action. Since then the pair has gone flat, holding a 1.1459-1.1470 band around EMA20 with RSI(14) back at 51 and ATR(14) compressed to ~8 pips ahead of Lagarde at 12:00 GMT.
Support: 1.1459, 1.14463, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14775
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1459 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 1.14463 and the 1.14336 london low
Reclaiming the 1.14705 session high is needed to put the 1.14775 prior high back in play
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT, then Fed's Williams 14:05 and Jefferson 14:20 UTC, can break this compressed range within hours
London leg lower into 1.1434, then sideways recovery range.
London hours sold EUR through the 1.1445/1.1450 shelf to a day low at 1.14336 — firm USD plus German political risk — before an immediate reclaim marked that break as a false break. Since then price has chopped between the session low at 1.14588 and the rebound high at 1.14694, RSI(14) back to mid-40s, ATR(14) ~8 pips.
Support: 1.14588, 1.14463, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14694, 1.14775
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking at 12:00 GMT — headline risk inside the next few bars
M15 close below 1.14588 re-exposes the 1.14463 swing low and the 1.14336 day low
Acceptance above the 1.14694 rebound high would put the 1.14775 asia high back in play
Continued failure to extend below 1.1445 keeps the false break read intact
False break below 1.1450, V-recovery, now coiling 1.1459-1.1470.
London session cut through the 1.1450 shelf to a session low at 1.14336 before a sharp V-recovery to the 1.14705 rebound high, with EUR still carrying German political risk against a firm USD. Price has since coiled between the 1.14592 micro low and 1.1470, RSI(14) back at a neutral 49 and ATR(14) around 8.5 pips.
Support: 1.14592, 1.14473, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14592 micro low puts the 1.14473 bounce low back in play and negates the false break read
Rising recovery lows off 1.14336 stay intact only while 1.14592 holds
A close above the 1.14705 rebound high opens the 1.14779 prior high
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT lands within the next bar or two and can break this coil
V-shaped recovery off session low, consolidating under rebound high.
The London morning sell-off pushed EUR/USD through the seven-week low to a session low of 1.14336 — German political stress plus a firm dollar behind the down-leg — before a sharp V-shaped recovery to a rebound high of 1.14705. Price has gone flat since, holding a 1.14592–1.14705 band with RSI(14) back near 52 and the close wedged between EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) around 8.6 pips.
Support: 1.14592, 1.14473, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 12:00 UTC lands just ahead of NY hours — main event risk for the next few bars
M15 close above the 1.14705 rebound high would extend the recovery toward the 1.14779 london high
Loss of the 1.14473 rebound low reopens the 1.14336 session low and invalidates the false break read
Failure to hold the 1.14592 bar low confirms the consolidation is rolling lower
Lower lows into the 08:30 UTC low, higher-low chain since.
London sold through the Asian range and the 1.1450 seven-week low area to a session low of 1.14336, driven by the hawkish-Fed dollar bid and German/French political-fiscal stress, then reversed 30 pips in two bars — a false break that has since built a higher-low chain from 1.14473 to 1.14600. Price is now capped under 1.14705 with RSI(14) back near the midline at 53 and ATR(14) around 9 pips.
Support: 1.1460, 1.14473, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 12:00 UTC lands inside the next bar period and can reset this range
Loss of 1.14600 breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes 1.14473 then the 1.14336 session low
M15 close above 1.14705 range top opens the path back to the 1.14779 prior high
London sell-off to a fresh session low at 1.14336, then a V-recovery building higher lows; price now back at the top of the drop.
London hours drove EUR/USD through the 1.1450 area to a fresh seven-week low at 1.14336 on the firm dollar and German/French political stress, then the move was swept back in a single bar and price has retraced roughly 75% of the 1.14779–1.14336 leg. The 1.14705 session high capped the first attempt (close back at 1.14639) but lows have stepped up since 08:30 UTC; RSI(14) has reset to 53, ATR(14) around 9 pips.
Support: 1.14601, 1.14473, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14705 session high negates the rejection and puts the 1.14779 asian high back in view
Loss of the 1.14473 pullback low breaks the higher lows and re-exposes the 1.14336 session low
ECB's Lagarde at 12:00 UTC lands within the next bar period and can reprice EUR abruptly
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp recovery off the session low · RSI 51 · price 1.1463
Lower highs into the London low, now mid-range consolidation.
London hours flushed EUR/USD through the 1.1445 seven-week floor to a session low of 1.14336 — hawkish-Fed dollar firmness plus German/French political-fiscal stress — before an immediate V-shaped recovery erased most of the drop back to 1.14705. Price has since coiled in a 1.14600–1.14705 band with RSI(14) back at 50 and ATR(14) near 8.5 pips, so the break below 1.1445 currently reads as a false break rather than continuation.
Support: 1.1460, 1.14463, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14775
What it said to watch
M15 close back under the 1.14600 range low re-exposes the 1.14463 swing low and the 1.14336 session low
Acceptance above the 1.14705 bounce high, then 1.14775 prior high, would end the lower-high sequence
Lagarde speech at 12:00 UTC lands inside the next few bars and could reset the intraday range
Lower lows into 1.14336, then a sharp three-hour recovery leg.
London hours drove a 44-pip slide from the 1.14779 session high to 1.14336 as the firm dollar and EUR political-fiscal headlines weighed, before an equally fast recovery retraced roughly two-thirds of that leg and left price pinned to the EMA50 at 1.14635. RSI(14) has unwound from sub-20 back to neutral near 48, with the 1.14512 pullback low now the first reference on the way back down.
Support: 1.14512, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14705, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.14705 recent high opens the path back to the 1.14779 session high
Loss of 1.14512 pullback low re-exposes the 1.14336 session low
ECB's Lagarde at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this intraday read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, deep counter-rally in progress · RSI 51 · price 1.1468
Lower lows into 1.1434, higher lows since the reversal bar.
London hours sold EUR through the 1.1459 shelf to a session low at 1.1434 — fresh seven-week lows on German coalition and French fiscal risk — before a sharp rejection of that low retraced almost the entire slide. Price is now pressing the 1.1470 prior shelf with RSI(14) back to 51 from oversold and ATR(14) near 8 pips.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1434
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1478
What it said to watch
A 15m close above the 1.1470 prior shelf, and then 1.1478 session high, would negate the London breakdown
Loss of the 1.1455 rebound low re-exposes the 1.1434 session low
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and Fed's Williams 14:05 UTC fall in the next bars and can reshape this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the session low · RSI 45 · price 1.14619
Lower highs / lower lows since the London open; price recovering into the broken overnight base.
Asia held a tight 1.1463-1.1478 band before the London open broke it decisively, a 45-pip slide into 1.14336 as idiosyncratic EUR selling on German coalition and French fiscal headlines met a firm USD. The snapback has stalled at the 1.14649 bounce high, leaving price pinned around EMA20 and still under EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45; ATR(14) is elevated at 8.1 pips versus the overnight lull.
Support: 1.14473, 1.1440, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14649, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 12:00 UTC lands mid-London session and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 1.14649 bounce high would put the asian high at 1.14779 back in range
Failure to hold 1.14473 on the retest low re-exposes the 1.14336 session low and the 1.1440 round number
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp snapback off the low · RSI 43 · price 1.14571
Lower highs and lower lows into 1.14336, then a vertical retracement back inside the broken range.
London hours broke the overnight 1.1463–1.1478 range lower from the 1.14779 session high and ran to a fresh seven-week low at 1.14336 on idiosyncratic EUR selling (German coalition risk, French fiscal strain) against a firm dollar; the next two bars snapped straight back to 1.14649 before stalling. Price now sits at 1.14571, pinned between the 1.14512 swing low and the 1.14649 rebound high, with ATR(14) expanded to ~6.6 pips and RSI(14) recovering from the low 20s to 43.
Support: 1.14512, 1.1440, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14649, 1.1471, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.14649 rebound high, then 1.14710 breakdown level, would negate the range-break read
Loss of the 1.14512 swing low and the 1.14400 round number reopens the 1.14336 session low
Lagarde speech 12:00 UTC plus US Fedspeak from 14:05 UTC can materially reprice this intraday structure
Range break lower, lower highs since 09:00 broker time.
London hours cracked the 1.1460–1.1471 shelf that had capped the Asian range, with a 45-pip flush to 1.14336 before an immediate snapback to the 1.14649 bounce high — consistent with the digest's heavy-EUR read as DXY holds above 100.00. Price now sits mid-flush near 1.1455 below EMA20/EMA50, RSI(14) at 38 and ATR(14) expanded to ~8.5 pips; lower highs remain intact under 1.14649.
Support: 1.14336, 1.1440
Resistance: 1.14649, 1.1471
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14710 broken shelf would invalidate the downside range break
Loss of 1.14336 session low exposes the 1.1440 psych area breakdown continuation toward 1.1400
ECB's Lagarde 12:00 UTC and US Fedspeak from 14:05 UTC fall inside the next bars and can reset this intraday range
Lower highs into 1.1434, then V-recovery back above the broken shelf.
London session sold the 1.14779 london high in a straight line through the 1.1445–1.1450 shelf to a 1.14336 session low, before a two-bar V-recovery reclaimed 1.1450 and tagged 1.14649 — a false break read for now. Dollar strength with DXY holding above 100 and an absent EUR bid ahead of tomorrow's flash PMIs is the driver; RSI(14) at 38 has lifted off the lows, price still under EMA20 at 1.1458.
Support: 1.1450, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14649, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.14649 rebound high would extend the recovery toward the 1.14779 london high
Loss of the 1.1450 broken shelf again re-exposes the 1.14336 session low
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC plus US Fedspeak (Williams, Jefferson) inside the next few hours can reset this intraday range
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; first bounce off the session low.
London session took out the asia low at 1.14622 and then the 1.14600 breakdown shelf, extending to a session low of 1.14336 with the round number at 1.14400 sliced through on the way; the descending chain of highs from the 1.14779 session high is intact. The last full bar snapped 18 pips back up to 1.14515 with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR(14) up to ~6.5 pips, so the move is stretched rather than reversed — the soft EUR tone into tomorrow's flash PMIs remains the backdrop.
Support: 1.1440, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.1460, 1.14622, 1.14779
What it said to watch
A 15m close back above 1.14600 breakdown would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold 1.14400 round number reopens the 1.14336 session low
ECB's Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US Fedspeak from 14:05 UTC can reshape this intraday structure
London hours sold the 1.14775 session high in a straight line, slicing the 1.14600 prior support and the 1.1454 area as the dollar firmed on hawkish Fedspeak; price now prints a fresh session low at 1.14348 with RSI(14) near 21. Extension is stretched rather than corrective — no retest of broken levels yet, and ATR has widened to roughly 38 pips per bar.
Support: 1.14348, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.14463, 1.1460, 1.14775
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14463 broken low would be the first sign this leg is stalling
Acceptance below the 1.14300 round number extends the lower-low chain
ECB's Nagel at 08:30 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC fall inside the next bars and can reshape this read
A retest of 1.14600 prior support from below would define the new resistance shelf
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive and extended · RSI 18 · price 1.14402
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; fresh session low.
London opened with a false break to 1.14779 above the tight Asian range, then price rolled over and cut through the asian low at 1.14622 and the 1.14512 broken level in three expanding bars to a session low of 1.14397. RSI(14) near 18 is oversold and ATR has widened to ~4.3 pips as USD stays firm on hawkish Fedspeak with German political risk weighing on EUR.
Support: 1.14397, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14512, 1.14622, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14512 broken level would neutralise the intraday lower-low sequence
Acceptance below 1.14397 session low exposes 1.14350 prior support and then the 1.1400 round number
ECB's Nagel at 08:30 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC can reprice this move within the next few bars
Failure to hold above the asian low at 1.14622 on any bounce keeps the downtrend structure intact
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower · RSI 19 · price 1.14448
Lower highs and lower lows since the session high; Asian range broken to the downside.
Price rolled over from the 1.14776 session high through the early London hours and has now sliced the Asia range and the 1.1454/56 low zone, printing 1.14443 on the last bar with RSI(14) near 19 — oversold but consistent with a fresh impulse, not exhaustion. EUR remains the heavy side with a December ECB hike already priced against building Fed hike odds; ATR(14) at roughly 4.3 pips understates the last three bars, which ran 9-11 pips each.
Support: 1.14443, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14545, 1.14645, 1.14776
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.14545 prior shelf would negate the downside break and put the 1.14645 asia range base back in play
Acceptance below 1.14443 session low exposes the 1.14350 next shelf, with 1.14000 psych the extension reference
ECB Nagel at 08:30 UTC and Lagarde at 12:00 UTC fall inside the next few bars and can reshape this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower · RSI 25 · price 1.14545
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, fresh session low.
Price rolled over from the 1.14779 session high and broke the 1.1471 breakdown shelf into the European open, printing a fresh session low at 1.14512 with RSI(14) near 25. Rallies have been capped at the 1.14645 lower high, consistent with the firm-dollar, hawkish-Fed tone driving the move.
Support: 1.14512, 1.1445
Resistance: 1.14645, 1.1471, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14512 session low puts the 1.1445 seven-week low zone in play
M15 close back above the 1.14645 lower high, then 1.1471 breakdown level, invalidates the lower-high chain
ECB Nagel (08:30 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next few hours
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg in progress · RSI 28 · price 1.14584
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
European morning trade rejected the 1.14779 session high and sliced through the Asian range floor and Monday's prior-day low at 1.14620, leaving price at 1.14584 with RSI(14) near 28 and both EMAs overhead. The leg is consistent with the heavy EUR tone into hawkish-Fed pricing; 1.14710 is now the broken shelf capping any retrace.
Support: 1.14555, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1462, 1.1471, 1.14779
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back above 1.14620 prior low would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 1.14555 7-week low exposes the 1.14500 round number
ECB Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC could materially shift this intraday read
RSI below 20 would flag stretched downside momentum rather than fresh structure
Overnight range broken lower, lower highs since 08:00 broker time.
Asia ground higher into a 1.14779 session high, then the London open flushed the pair through the overnight range for a 1.1459 session low, with 1.1471 the break level left behind. Price is now basing just above 1.1462 with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR(14) at ~3.5 pips; the tone matches the digest's soft-EUR read — capped under 1.1500 with the hawkish Fed backdrop.
Support: 1.1459, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.14779
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above the 1.1471 break level invalidates the downside range break
Failure to hold the 1.1459 session low exposes the 1.1450 psych shelf
ECB's Nagel 08:30 UTC then Lagarde 12:00 UTC are the near-term event risks for this read
Chain of lower highs since Monday's 1.14953; Asian range low broken at the London open.
The Asian range compressed between 1.14622 and 1.14779 before the London open flushed it, a 19-pip impulse through Monday's low at 1.14616 to a session low of 1.14590 — consistent with EUR staying capped under 1.1500 against a firm dollar. Price has since retested the 1.14616 area from above and holds 1.14641, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) at just 3.6 pips, so the bounce is small relative to the break.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1459, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.14779
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close back above the 1.14710 broken shelf would negate the London-open break
Failure to hold 1.14616 Monday low re-exposes the 1.14590 session low
ECB Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC fall inside the next few bars and could reshape the intraday structure
Asian range broken to the downside, lower highs intact.
The overnight grind up stalled at the 1.1478 session high and the London open broke the Asian range floor, an 18-pip impulse into 1.1459 that leaves price pinned near the session low with RSI(14) at 27. The 1.1471 broken shelf is the first reference above; the move is consistent with the heavy EUR tone into Lagarde.
Support: 1.1459, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.1478
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1471 broken shelf would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold the 1.1459 session low exposes the 1.1450 psych area
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and EZ consumer confidence 14:00 UTC can reset the intraday range
Asian range broken lower, lower highs into early London.
Price was rejected at the 1.1478 session high late in Asia and then broke the overnight shelf at 1.1471 with an 8-pip bar, printing a new window low at 1.1459 in the hour before London. RSI(14) at 34 with ATR(14) only ~3.3 pips, so the drop is large relative to recent intraday volatility; the 1.1456 seven-week low now sits directly below.
Support: 1.1459, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.1478
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1471 broken shelf would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold the 1.1459 session low exposes the 1.1456 seven-week low
ECB Nagel 08:30 GMT and Lagarde 12:00 GMT fall inside the next few bars and can reset this intraday structure
False break above the Asian range high, price back inside and pressing the range low.
The early London push through the Asian range to a session high of 1.14779 was rejected and unwound in one 8-pip bar back to 1.1464, erasing the entire Asian rally and leaving price below the ema20 at 1.1471. RSI(14) at 37 with ATR(14) near 3 pips; the chain of lower highs from Monday's prior day high at 1.14953 is intact, with the swing low at 1.14616 and the 1.1460 round number the next reference points — consistent with EUR staying capped under 1.1500 as hawkish Fed pricing holds DXY above 100.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.14779, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A close below 1.14616 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1460 round number
Reclaiming 1.1471 (ema20) would put price back inside the Asian range and negate the false break read
ECB Nagel 08:30 GMT and Lagarde 12:00 GMT, plus US Fedspeak, can reset this intraday structure
Higher lows off 1.14616, pullback from session high.
Asia ground higher from the 1.14616 monday low in a chain of higher lows, peaking at the 1.14779 session high before rejection pulled price back under EMA20 to 1.14699 — risk-on headlines (US-Iran talks, softer oil) had supported EUR overnight but 1.1500 still caps. ATR(14) at 2.6 pips shows a compressed pre-London range; RSI(14) near 47 is neutral.
Support: 1.1466, 1.14628, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14718, 1.14779, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1466 asia base ends the higher-low sequence and exposes 1.14628 swing low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.14718 and a close above the 1.14779 session high re-opens the path toward the 1.14953 prior day hi
London open and ECB's Nagel at 08:30 UTC can expand the 2.6-pip ATR range quickly
06:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the asian low, momentum fading · RSI 53 · price 1.14714
Higher highs / higher lows since 23:45 UTC; first stall at 1.14779 with price back under EMA20.
Steady grind higher through Asia and into early Europe, roughly 15 pips off the 1.14622 asian low, helped at the margin by a softer dollar on US–Iran diplomacy headlines. The leg stalled at the 1.14779 session high and the last two bars handed back six pips to the 1.14705 pullback low, RSI(14) cooling to ~53 with ATR(14) near 2.9 pips.
Support: 1.14705, 1.14661, 1.14622
Resistance: 1.14779, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Close below 1.14705 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain built off the asian low
Loss of the 1.14661 range mid puts 1.14622 back in play as the double bottom base
Acceptance above the 1.14779 session high reopens 1.14953 prior day high
ECB's Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC are the near-term event risk for this range
05:46 UTC
Grinding higher off the base, momentum easing late · RSI 62 · price 1.14738
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asia base; Asian range high broken and holding.
Late Asia hours have lifted EUR/USD off the 1.14616/1.14628 asia base and through the asia high at 1.14709, with the improved risk tone flagged in the digest (Gulf/US-China diplomacy) capping USD; the last three bars stalled at 1.14779 session high and are drifting back to 1.14738. ATR(14) is a thin 2.6 pips and RSI(14) near 62 — constructive micro-structure, but the move is small-range Asian liquidity ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.14709, 1.14628, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14779, 1.14807, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.14779 session high exposes the 1.14807 prior swing, then 1.14953 prior high
Loss of 1.14709 asia high on a close puts the read back inside the Asian range
A break of the 1.14628 asia base / 1.14616 swing low confirms a fresh lower low
London open plus ECB's Nagel (08:30 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) can reset this range quickly
Asia session has ground higher off the 1.14628 asia low in a clean HH/HL chain, reclaiming the ema20 and now testing the 50% fib of yesterday's NY drop at 1.14785, just below the 1.14807 prior high. RSI(14) near 70 with ATR(14) only ~2.8 pips — thin, low-volatility drift into the London open rather than an impulse; the digest reads this as a USD-led tape with rallies repeatedly capped under 1.1500.
Support: 1.14705, 1.14628, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14785, 1.14807, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14705 (ema20) ends the Asia HH/HL chain
M15 close above the 1.14807 prior high opens the 1.14953 ny high
Failure to hold the 1.14628 asia low exposes the 1.14616 prior low
ECB Nagel 08:30 GMT and Lagarde 12:00 GMT could materially shift this drift
05:01 UTC
Mild intraday recovery inside a range · RSI 66 · price 1.14762
Higher lows since the ny low; price at top of Asian range.
Asia has ground roughly 14 pips off the 1.1463 asia base and price is now pressing the session high at 1.14766, RSI(14) near 66 — consolidation of Monday's USD-led NY slide into the 1.14616 ny low rather than a new leg. That recovery has retraced 38.2% of the drop; the 50% fib at 1.14785 is the next area to watch for rejection or break. ATR(14) is only ~3 pips, typical late-Asia compression.
Support: 1.14705, 1.1463, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14766, 1.14785, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A 15m close above 1.14785 (50% fib) would extend the recovery toward the 1.1480s and the pd high at 1.14953
Loss of the 1.1463 asia base, with price back under ema20 (~1.14705), re-exposes the 1.14616 ny low
ECB Nagel 08:30 GMT and Lagarde 12:00 GMT, plus US ADP weekly employment, are the near-term risks to this range read
04:46 UTC
Mild intraday uptrend off the Asia low · RSI 64 · price 1.14751
Higher highs / higher lows since 21:00 UTC, Asian range high taken out.
Asia has ground higher off the 1.14628 session low and cleared the Asian range high at 1.14709, price now pressing 1.1475 with RSI(14) ~64 and ATR a thin 3.3 pips. The move is a shallow retrace of Monday's NY slide from 1.14953 to the 1.14616 prior day low; the pair remains capped well under the 1.1500 ceiling flagged in the dollar-firm macro read.
Support: 1.14709, 1.14628, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14807, 1.14953
What it said to watch
A close back under 1.14709 puts price inside the Asian range again and invalidates the range break read
London open in under 2h typically expands a 3.3-pip ATR — first directional test of 1.14807 prior swing
Failure to hold 1.14628 session low re-exposes the 1.14616 prior day low
ECB Lagarde ~12:00 UTC is the next scheduled event risk for this read
04:31 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift within range · RSI 58 · price 1.14736
Asia range, price pressing range top after NY downleg based.
NY hours sold EUR/USD from 1.14810 down to the 1.14616 24h low, and Asia has since ground out a tight 1.14629–1.14755 range with price now at the top of it, holding above EMA20. RSI(14) near 57 and ATR(14) just 3.1 pips — no expansion yet, with the pair still capped well under the 1.1500 level flagged as the broader ceiling.
Support: 1.1469, 1.14629, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14755, 1.1481, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14755 asia high would end the range read and expose 1.14810
Loss of 1.14629 asia low re-opens the 1.14616 24h low
London open in under an hour typically expands the Asia range; ATR at 3.1 pips is compressed
Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC are the near-term EUR event risk
04:16 UTC
Corrective recovery inside a 24h range · RSI 57 · price 1.14724
Higher lows off the asia base, capped under the asia high.
Asia has ground higher off the 1.14630 asia base, which held three times, with the 1.14753 asia high capping the bounce; price sits above the ema20 and RSI(14) is mid-range near 57. Monday's rejection from the 1.14953 prior day hi and the slide through 1.14807 ny breakdown still frame the window, and ATR(14) at ~3.5 pips reflects thin pre-London conditions with EUR/USD held under 1.1500 by firm dollar pricing.
Support: 1.1469, 1.1463, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14753, 1.14807, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14753 asia high extends the higher-low chain toward the 1.14807 ny breakdown level
Loss of 1.14616 session low confirms a lower-low and voids the asia base read
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and Wed flash PMIs are the next scheduled risks that could reset this intraday range
04:01 UTC
Range-bound, drifting higher off the lows · RSI 59 · price 1.14731
Asian range compression after NY downswing; higher lows building.
NY hours sold the pair from 1.14953 down to the 1.14616 ny low, and the Asia session has since compressed into a 1.14628–1.14753 range with ATR down to ~3 pips. Price is pressing the session high with RSI(14) near 58 and holding above ema20, the 1.1462 area having been defended twice — consistent with the digest's read of EUR stabilising below the 1.1500 cap.
Support: 1.1469, 1.14628, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14753, 1.14807, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14753 session high would extend the Asia recovery toward the 1.14807 prior swing
Loss of 1.14628 asia low, then 1.14616 ny low, confirms a fresh lower low and invalidates the range read
Eurozone HCOB flash PMIs 07:15–07:30 UTC (~3h) can materially reset this intraday structure
Thin Asia ATR (~3 pips) means London open volatility expansion is likely to break the current range
03:46 UTC
Shallow intraday recovery inside a range · RSI 59 · price 1.14731
Higher lows off the asia low, range top under test.
Asia ground higher off the 1.14628 asia low and price is now pressing the session high at 1.14739, holding above the EMA20 near 1.1468 after clearing the overnight range top. Momentum is contained — RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) at just 2.6 pips — consistent with a Dollar still firm above 100.00 and EUR capped below 1.1500 into the London handover.
Support: 1.1468, 1.14628, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14739, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14757 swing high extends the retrace of Monday's slide from the 1.14953 prior day high
Failure to hold 1.14628 and then the 1.14616 prior day low confirms a lower low and cancels the higher-low sequence
Loss of the EMA20 would put price back inside the overnight range
Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC are the first scheduled risk events after this window
03:31 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 65 · price 1.14711
Compressed Asian range after NY sell-off; higher lows into session top.
Spot topped at 1.14953 around the 12:00 UTC European slot and unwound the whole leg into 1.14616 by late NY as hawkish Fedspeak kept the dollar firm. Asia has coiled in a 1.14628–1.14712 range with a chain of higher lows, and the last bar closes 1.14711 right on the asia high; ATR(14) of 2.8 pips confirms very thin conditions.
Support: 1.14628, 1.14616, 1.14562
Resistance: 1.14712, 1.14745
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14712 asia high opens the 38.2% fib at 1.14745 as the next area to monitor
Loss of 1.14628 asia low and then the 1.14616 prior day low would confirm a lower low and re-expose 1.1456
ECB Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC fall inside the next few hours and can override this range read
Lower highs from 1.1495 into a flat 1.1462 base; shallow higher lows since 01:45 UTC.
Price rolled over from 1.1495 at the London-NY crossover and spent the US session grinding down into a 1.1462 session low, with hawkish Fedspeak keeping the dollar bid. Asia has bounced into 1.1471, holding above EMA20 (1.1467) and EMA50 (1.1468), but the range is only ~9 pips wide with ATR(14) at 2.6 pips — no structural break in play.
Support: 1.1462, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.1480, 1.1495
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1462 session low exposes the 1.1454/56 7-week low
Acceptance above the 1.1471 asia high is needed to re-engage 1.1480 prior high
Fourth failure at 1.1462 keeps the base intact and the range read unchanged
Lagarde 12:00 UTC plus US Fedspeak later today could reset this intraday range
03:01 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift within range · RSI 58 · price 1.14698
Asian range compression after Monday's NY downleg; equal highs at range top.
Monday's NY session sold 1.14953 down to 1.14616, and the Asia session has since compressed into a 1.14622–1.14710 range with price now pressing the asia high for the second time. Drift is mildly higher — spot holds above ema20 with RSI(14) near 58 — but the digest read has EUR capped and Fed-speak keeping USD firm, so this is still range behaviour rather than trend.
Support: 1.14667, 1.14622, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.1471, 1.14757, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14710 asia high opens the path to the 1.14757 ny swing high
Loss of the 1.14622 asia low re-exposes the 1.14616 prior day low
Sustained trade back below ema20 (~1.14667) would neutralise the intraday upward drift
ECB Lagarde 12:00 UTC and US Fedspeak later today can reset this range
02:46 UTC
Sideways after NY slide, no directional impulse · RSI 57 · price 1.1469
Tight Asian range inside Monday's lower-high sequence.
NY session sold the 1.14953 high down to 1.14616 as the Dollar held its post-FOMC bid, and Asia has since done nothing but coil in a 1.14628–1.14709 band. RSI(14) at 57 is mid-range and ATR(14) near 3 pips shows how thin the Asian range is; price sits just under the asia high with the 38.2% fib of the NY drop at 1.14745 untouched.
Support: 1.14628, 1.14616, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14709, 1.14745, 1.14785
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.14709 asia high would put the 38.2% fib at 1.14745 and 50% at 1.14785 back in play
Loss of the 1.14616 ny low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1456 7-wk low
London open liquidity plus ECB Nagel (08:30 UTC) and Lagarde (12:00 UTC) can break this range read quickly
Lower highs since the 1.14953 day high, flat base above the 1.14616 day low.
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.14953 day high through the NY session to 1.14616, and has since gone flat, chopping in a 10-pip band with ATR(14) down to 2.6 pips in thin early-Asia trade. The 1.14709 asia high capped the overnight pop and price is back below EMA20/EMA50 at 1.14634, consistent with the digest's firm-USD, EUR-capped-under-1.1500 tone; RSI(14) mid-range at 47 with no divergence.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14709, 1.1476, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14616 day low would extend the lower-high chain toward the 1.1456 7wk low
A 15m close above the 1.14709 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 1.14760 ny high back in play
Range is likely to stay compressed until London; ADP 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC are the day's first material risk to this read
Tight range above the 1.1462 session low after a lower-high sequence.
NY hours drove spot from 1.14953 down to the 1.14616 session low, and the Asia session has since coiled in a 9-pip band, with the push to the 1.14709 asia high rejected and price closing back at 1.14633 under EMA20 and EMA50. Hawkish Fedspeak and the 1.1500 cap remain the backdrop; RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) at ~2.6 pips confirm compression rather than direction.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14709, 1.14757
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14616 session low reopens the 1.14560 7-week low area
Reclaiming the 1.14709 asia high would break the range and put the 1.14757 swing high back in play
London open and ECB Nagel (08:30 UTC) fall inside the next few bars and can break this compression
Price rolled over from 1.14953 into the NY session — a USD-firm move with hawkish Fedspeak keeping EUR heavy — and bottomed at the 1.14616 session low around 18:30 UTC. Asia has since compressed into a 1.14616–1.14709 range with ATR(14) near 2.6 pips and RSI(14) back at 52; the push to the asia high at 1.14709 was rejected and the last closed bar sits back on the EMA20.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14709, 1.1476
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.14709 asia high would break the overnight range and put the 1.14760 ny swing back in play
Failure to hold the 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.1454/56 7-week low area
Sustained sub-3 pip ATR means the range read holds until London volume arrives
Wed HCOB flash PMIs (07:15/07:30 UTC) and US PMIs are the next event risk capable of resetting this range
01:16 UTC
Downtrend stalling, minor bounce · RSI 66 · price 1.14696
Compressed overnight range, higher lows off the NY low.
Price based twice at 1.14616/1.14622 through the late NY hours, then the first Asia bars cleared the overnight range top at 1.14681 to a session high of 1.14709 on thin liquidity, RSI(14) around 66. ATR(14) is only ~2.3 pips, so ranges are heavily compressed with the dollar holding its post-FOMC footing and EUR still capped well under 1.1500.
Support: 1.14681, 1.14622, 1.14616
Resistance: 1.14709, 1.14757, 1.14795
What it said to watch
A close back below 1.14681 puts the read back inside the overnight range
Loss of 1.14622 asia low and then the 1.14616 ny low re-opens the lower-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.14709 session high exposes the 1.14757 prior swing
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel earlier can materially widen these ranges
Asia has broken the tight 1.14624-1.14657 coil, the last four bars lifting to a session high at 1.14691 with RSI(14) near 62 and price back above EMA50 at ~1.14662. The NY leg down from 1.14953 — driven by DXY holding above 100.00 on Fed hike pricing — left the 1.14616 base untested since; 1.14722 swing high is the next reference. ATR(14) around 3 pips, typical Asia-hours compression.
Support: 1.14662, 1.14624
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14722
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.14662 (ema50) and into the asia low at 1.14624 negates the range break
Sustained acceptance above the 1.14691 session high exposes the 1.14722 swing high
ECB's Nagel 08:30 UTC and Lagarde 12:00 UTC are the first scheduled risk after Asia hours
Lower highs into a tight late-session coil; minor pop off the session low.
EUR/USD sold from 1.14953 through the NY session to a session low at 1.14616, staying heavy as the DXY held above 100 on hawkish Fedspeak. Price then coiled in a 1.14622–1.14657 band through the rollover and has just broken out of that coil to 1.1468 in early Asia hours; RSI(14) near 61, ATR(14) only ~3 pips.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1456
Resistance: 1.14722, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.14722 swing high would break the chain of lower highs from the day high
Loss of the 1.14616 session low re-exposes the 1.14560 seven-week low
Lagarde 12:00 GMT plus Williams/Jefferson Fedspeak later today can override this compressed intraday structure
Lower highs into NY, now flat-lining just above the session low.
NY hours sold the pair from the 1.14953 high down to 1.14616, in line with a firm dollar holding DXY above 100.00, and the bounce stalled at 1.14691 before fading. Early Asia is a 2-pip drift on thin volume with price pinned under EMA20, RSI(14) near 43 — no setup in play between 1.14616 and 1.14691.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.1476, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.14600 round number
A close back above 1.14691 swing high breaks the chain of lower highs and puts 1.14760 ny supply in play
ATR at ~2.4 pips shows a compressed Asian range; expansion likely only on the London handover
Lagarde (12:00 GMT) and US Fedspeak/ADP later today are the first scheduled catalysts capable of breaking this range
Lower highs into a tight Asia-hours coil above the session low.
Monday's London push to the 1.14953 prior high was fully retraced through NY, price grinding down to a 1.14616 session low as the dollar held its post-FOMC footing above DXY 100.00. Since the Asia open the pair has coiled in a 7-pip band under the 1.14691 swing high with ATR(14) at ~2.3 pips and RSI(14) mid-40s — no structure in play until one side of that band gives.
Support: 1.14616, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14691, 1.14953
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.14616 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1450 7wk low
Reclaim of the 1.14691 swing high would be the first break of the NY descending sequence
Thin Asia liquidity is exaggerating the coil; London open typically resolves it
ADP 4-week average and Fedspeak (Williams, Jefferson) later Tuesday are the next scheduled catalysts for this pair