EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 40 · price 1.14471
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1495 high, now compressing.
EUR/USD has ground lower all week from Monday's 1.1495 high, with the NY session yesterday doing the damage — the slide through 1.1440 round number extended to a 1.14292 week low, the softest level since late July, as the dollar held two-month highs on hawkish Fed repricing. Price has since consolidated in a tight 1.1445–1.1455 band into the Asia session, capped by the ema20 at 1.1452 and the 1.14548 ny high, with RSI(14) near 40 and no divergence yet at the lows. The 1.14705 prior high marks the last lower-high on the sequence.
Support: 1.1440, 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14521, 1.14548, 1.14705
What it said to watch
Hourly closes above the ema20 at 1.1452 and the 1.14548 ny high would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 1.1440 round number and the 1.14292 week low opens the 1.1400 psych area
Euro-area flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC can reset this read inside the next session
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open, price basing above week low.
EURUSD has traded one-way lower since Monday's open near 1.1481, with the dominant leg coming in the London and NY sessions on Tuesday as DXY pushed through 100.00 and a soft Eurozone consumer confidence print (-16.5 vs -16) added to the drag. The break below 1.1445 extended to a week low at 1.1429 before prices stabilised in a tight 1.1430-1.1444 band into the late NY hours; every bounce this week has been capped at or below the falling EMA(20), now around 1.1453. RSI(14) at ~35 is depressed but not making new lows alongside price, and ATR(14) near 13 pips shows range compression after the impulse.
Support: 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1453, 1.1478
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1429 week low opens the 1.1400 psych handle
An hourly close back above the 1.1453 ema20 would break the sequence of lower highs; 1.1478 prior day hi is the first structural barrier above
Eurozone flash PMIs 08:00 UTC and US advance PMIs 13:45 GMT Wednesday can materially reshape this read
Continued sub-13 pip hourly ranges would confirm the consolidation rather than continuation
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg extending · RSI 32 · price 1.14379
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows, fresh cycle low.
Price opened the week near 1.1481 and has rolled over in two clear legs: the first through the London session took out the 1.1459 base, the second during NY hours pushed to a week low at 1.14292 before a modest close-back at 1.1438. The digest's read fits the tape — a firm dollar on hawkish Fedspeak plus a soft Eurozone consumer confidence print (-16.5 vs -16) kept the euro pinned, and the session high at 1.14779 was rejected early in the day. RSI(14) sits near 32 with price trading well below a declining EMA(20) around 1.1457, which capped the last two pullbacks.
Support: 1.14292, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1457, 1.14779, 1.14953
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 1.1457 ema20 would break the lower-high sequence that has held since Monday
Failure to hold 1.14292 extends the downtrend toward the 1.1400 psych floor
ECB Nagel speaking shortly, then Wednesday's flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, EZ 08:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC — either could reset this structure within the next bar period
Reclaiming the session high at 1.14779 would put the 1.14953 week high back in play
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows; fresh window low at 1.1429.
Price coiled in a 1.1460–1.1495 band from Monday's open through the Asia session before breaking down at the London open and extending through the NY session to 1.1429, the lowest print in the window; the weekly open at 1.1481 has not been revisited since. EUR is pinned at multi-week lows with German and French political-fiscal risk premium and a DXY above 100 doing the work, while today's Eurozone consumer confidence miss at -16.5 added to the growth-versus-inflation squeeze. Every bounce inside this week's impulse lower has stalled beneath the ema20 near 1.1452, with the last rebound capped at the prior high of 1.1470 and RSI(14) at 31 without a matching divergence.
Support: 1.1429, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1452, 1.1470, 1.1481
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 at 1.1452 and then the prior high at 1.1470 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the session low at 1.1429 opens the path toward the 1.1400 round number
ECB's Nagel at 19:30 UTC tonight, then Wed flash PMIs (France 07:15, Germany 07:30, Eurozone 08:00 UTC) and US S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the catalysts that could reshape this read
Reclaiming the weekly open at 1.1481 would negate the range break entirely
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending into the close · RSI 30 · price 1.14311
Successive lower highs and lower lows; fresh week low printed in NY.
EURUSD has traded one-way lower since the weekly open at 1.1481: the week high at 1.14953 on Monday capped the only attempt higher, the London session today broke Monday's base and spiked to 1.14336, and the NY session has driven a second leg to a fresh session low at 1.14306 with price closing at the bottom of the range. Every bounce this week has stalled below the H1 EMA(20), now near 1.1454, and the Tuesday high at 1.14779 marks the last lower high. The digest read matches the tape — hawkish ECB pricing is already in, while German/French political-fiscal risk and a DXY above 100 keep the single currency pinned at seven-week lows; RSI(14) near 30 shows the move is stretched but not yet corrective.
Support: 1.14306, 1.1400, 1.1330
Resistance: 1.1454, 1.14779, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.14306 session low exposes the 1.1400 psych handle and, on follow-through, the june lows at 1.1330
An hourly close back above the 1.1454 ema20 would be the first break of this week's lower-high sequence; 1.14779 caps it above that
Eurozone flash PMIs Wed 08:00 UTC (France 07:15, Germany 07:30) and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the dominant near-term catalysts for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open; range floor broken.
Price has traded on the wrong side of the weekly open at 1.1481 all week, and the NY session today took out the 1.1460 shelf that had held since Monday, printing a session low at 1.1434 — the lowest in seven weeks — on the mix of German/French political risk and a firm dollar. The bounce off that low stalled under 1.1470 and the last two bars closed back near the lows, leaving EMA(20) around 1.1456 capping from above. RSI(14) near 37 is at its weakest reading of the window without yet reaching an extreme.
Support: 1.1434, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1456, 1.1478, 1.1481
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1434 confirms continuation toward the 1.1400 round number
An hourly close back above the 1.1456 ema20 would neutralise the lower-high sequence; 1.1478 day high is the next barrier
EZ flash PMIs Wed morning and US flash PMIs Wed afternoon are the dominant near-term catalysts for this structure
Fed's Barkin within the hour could drive the next session's range
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Monday's NY high; fresh low swept and partially reclaimed.
Price has tracked lower all week from Monday's NY high at 1.14953, with each bounce capped below the falling EMA20 around 1.14640. The dominant leg came in the London session today: a drop through 1.14463 to a 1.14336 seven-week low — the EUR-negative combination of German/French political risk premium and a firm post-FOMC USD — before a sharp recovery to the 1.14779 day high, which has since been sold back to 1.14535. RSI(14) near 40 has not cycled back above 50 on that bounce, consistent with the lower-high sequence still holding.
Support: 1.14515, 1.14336, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1464, 1.14779, 1.14953
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.14640 EMA20 and then the 1.14779 day high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.14515 session low re-exposes 1.14336; below there the 1.1400 psych area comes into view
Eurozone flash PMIs Wed 07:15–08:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; 1.1445/1.1450 pivot broken, now consolidating below EMA20.
Price has leaked lower all week from Monday's open around 1.1481 and the 1.14953 week high, with the decisive leg coming late in the London session today: the 1.1445/1.1450 area gave way and the pair traded down to a 1.14336 week low before recovering to 1.14562. That impulse fits the digest's read of a firm USD on hawkish Fedspeak against a EUR carrying German/French political risk premium rather than rate-hike pricing. The bounce stalled well below the 1.14775 prior high, RSI(14) sits near 42 after a sub-30 washout, and both EMA20 (~1.1464) and EMA50 (~1.1470) now sit above price.
Support: 1.14463, 1.14336, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14645, 1.14775, 1.14953
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1464 ema20 would break the lower-high sequence that has held since Monday
Failure to hold the 1.14463 swing low re-exposes the 1.14336 week low and the 1.1400 psych level
Eurozone flash Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT plus Fed speakers Williams, Jefferson and Barkin land inside the next few bars
Wednesday's EZ (07:30 GMT) and US (13:45 UTC) flash PMIs could materially reset this structural read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling after flush · RSI 46 · price 1.14629
Multi-day range, floor broken then reclaimed.
EURUSD has ground out lower highs since Monday's 1.1495 week high, with the weekly open at 1.1481 now acting as a ceiling and every bounce stalling at or just under the H1 EMA(20) around 1.1465. The London-NY transition today forced a break of the 1.1455 range floor down to a 1.1434 session low — fresh seven-week territory on hawkish Fedspeak and DXY at July-30 highs, plus German coalition and French spread stress — but the move was immediately reclaimed, leaving a false break and a retest of the floor from above. RSI(14) sits mid-40s with price back inside the week's 1.1455-1.1495 band and ATR near 10 pips.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1434, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1481, 1.1495
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below 1.1455 would re-open the 1.1434 session low and the 1.1400 psych level
A close above the 1.1481 weekly open would put the 1.1495 week high back in play and invalidate the lower-high sequence
Eurozone flash PMIs Wed 07:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the events most likely to break this range read
Failure to hold the reclaim of the range floor into the next NY session would confirm today's flush as continuation rather than a false break
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling after the flush · RSI 48 · price 1.14662
Lower highs since Friday, 1.1450 shelf broken and reclaimed.
EURUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 1.1495 week high, with the week opening near 1.1481 and grinding lower through Monday's sessions. The London session today drove through the 1.1450 prior shelf to a 1.1434 week low before the bar closed back above it, and price has since retraced roughly half of that decline to sit on the EMA(20) around 1.1465 with RSI(14) near 48 — the flush lines up with the digest's hawkish-Fed-plus-German-politics read on the Euro. The asian high at 1.1478 is the first cap on the rebound.
Support: 1.1465, 1.1450, 1.1434
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.1495
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.1478 asian high would break the lower-highs sequence off the week high
Loss of the 1.1450 prior shelf again, or a close below the 1.1434 week low, confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.1465 would put the rebound back in question
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT plus Williams/Jefferson/Barkin later in the NY session are the near-term event risks to this read
Lower highs since Monday's high, fresh low at 1.14336 fully recovered intrabar.
Since Monday's open the pair has ground out a series of lower highs from 1.14953, with each bounce capped progressively lower into 1.14775 during this morning's London hours. The London session then produced the week's sharpest move — a flush through the 1.1445 base to a session low of 1.14336 on hawkish-Fed and German political-risk headlines — but the two bars that followed reclaimed almost the entire decline, closing back at 1.14691 just above EMA(20) near 1.1467 and leaving a false break beneath the prior range floor. RSI(14) has recovered off its lows to the high-40s without confirming the new price low.
Support: 1.1467, 1.14463, 1.14336
Resistance: 1.14775, 1.14853, 1.14953
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below 1.14463 would negate the false break read and re-expose the 1.14336 session low
Loss of 1.14336 opens the 1.1400 round-number area flagged in the sell-side range
Sustained trade above 1.14775 today high would break the lower-highs sequence off the monday high
ECB's Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and Fed speakers Williams/Jefferson from 14:05 UTC land inside the next few bars and can reset this structure
EMA20 at 1.1467 is the immediate pivot — repeated rejection there keeps the downtrend intact
Lower highs since Monday's NY high; break below the 1.1445 pivot then partial reclaim.
Price has ground lower all week from the 1.14814 weekly open, with the 1.14953 Monday NY high capping and each bounce stalling under the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1466. The London session broke the 1.1445 pivot and printed 1.14336 — a fresh seven-week low on the German political and French fiscal risk premium described in the digest — before an immediate snap back to 1.14551, leaving that break unconfirmed for now. The 1.1535 shelf at the top of the window was lost on last Wednesday's FOMC hike and has not been revisited since.
Support: 1.1445, 1.14336, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1466, 1.14775, 1.14814
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below 1.14463 would confirm the breakdown rather than a false break of the 1.1445 pivot
Reclaiming the 1.1466 ema20 and then the 1.14775 day high would break the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance under 1.14336 exposes the 1.1400 round number
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US Fed speakers from 14:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's NY high; this week's range broken to the downside.
After Monday's session opened near 1.1481 and probed a week high at 1.14953 in NY, EUR/USD spent Monday night and the Asian range grinding between 1.1459 and 1.1478, capped by a clean series of lower highs. The London session has broken that shelf: two impulsive bars took price through 1.1459 to 1.14427, the lowest print of the week, with the hawkish Fed repricing and DXY holding above 100.00 still the dominant driver while the Euro's own bid stays absent. Price is below both EMA(20) at ~1.1463 and EMA(50), and RSI(14) at ~33 is near the low end of its cycle without a divergence yet.
Support: 1.1440, 1.1435, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1463, 1.14775, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.1440 round number exposes the 1.1435 next shelf, with 1.1400 psych below it
An hourly close back above EMA(20) at ~1.1463 would negate the range break read and put 1.14775 session high back in play
ECB's Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US Fedspeak (Williams 14:05, Jefferson 14:20) fall inside the next bars and can reshape this structure
Wednesday's flash PMIs (euro area 07:15/07:30 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) are the week's binary risk for this range
Lower highs since Monday's NY session, week low at 1.14616 intact.
The week opened near 1.1481 and the only real impulse came in Monday's NY hours — a push to the week high at 1.14953 was rejected and price slid 34 pips into 1.14616, the week low. Asia and early London on Tuesday have based above that low and recovered to a session high of 1.1478 as improved risk sentiment trimmed the post-FOMC dollar bid, but the bounce has stalled back at the EMA(20) around 1.14708 with price still beneath both the EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) near 46 is mid-range, consistent with a 60-pip consolidation rather than a trend turn.
Support: 1.1462, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14708, 1.1478, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14616 confirms a lower low and exposes the friday low at 1.14545
An H1 close back above the session high at 1.1478 would break the lower-highs sequence; 1.14953 week high is the wider cap
Sustained acceptance above the EMA(20) at 1.14708 is the first condition for the corrective bounce to extend
ECB's Lagarde at 12:00 UTC today and Wednesday's flash PMIs could materially shift this read
Range between 1.1455 and 1.1495 after Friday's impulse lower; short-run higher lows since the Monday low.
The dominant move of the window was Friday's single-hour slide from 1.1556 to the 1.14545 range floor on the hawkish-Fed dollar bid, and price has done nothing but consolidate in a roughly 40-pip band since. Monday's session opened at 1.14814, faded to 1.14616 in the NY hours and has since ground back up through the flat EMA(20) near 1.1469 into the Asia session, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s from a compressed low-40s stretch. The 1.14545/1.14546 pair of lows is an unbroken double bottom, while the weekly open at 1.14814 and Monday's high at 1.14953 mark the upper edge of the same band.
Support: 1.1469, 1.14616, 1.14545
Resistance: 1.14814, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.14814 weekly open, then 1.14953 monday high, would break the range read to the upside toward the 1.1500 psych cap
Loss of the EMA(20) near 1.1469 and a close under the 1.14616 monday low would re-expose the 1.14545 range floor
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and Eurozone consumer confidence 14:00 UTC today are the near-term catalysts capable of breaking this compression
Wed flash HCOB and S&P Global PMIs sit just beyond the next 24h and could materially shift the intraday structure
Lower highs since Monday inside a 1.1455-1.1495 band.
The Fed-driven drop last Wednesday carved out the 1.1455 week low and price has consolidated under 1.1500 ever since, with hawkish Fed pricing keeping rallies capped. Monday's London session tagged the 1.14953 monday high before NY sold it back toward the 1.1462 monday low, and the Asia session has only managed a grind to the 1.14753 session high, leaving a sequence of lower highs into the 1.14814 weekly open. Price sits a couple of pips above the H1 ema20 at 1.14702 with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR compressed around 7-8 pips.
Support: 1.14702, 1.1462, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.14753, 1.14814, 1.14953
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.14814 weekly open would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1462 monday low re-exposes the 1.1455 week low
Sustained trade back under the ema20 at 1.14702 keeps the session high out of reach
ECB Lagarde 12:00 GMT plus Williams/Jefferson/Barkin today, and Wednesday's flash PMIs, are the events most likely to break this range
Lower highs into a tight range above the seven-wk low.
The dominant move of the window remains last week's single-bar break from 1.1556 to 1.1455 on the hawkish Fed repricing; everything since has been a 40-pip drift-lower consolidation. Monday's session opened at 1.1481, tagged the week high at 1.1495 in the NY hours, then leaked back through the H1 ema20 near 1.1470 — price is now pinned against the session low at 1.1462 with RSI(14) sitting mid-40s and ATR compressed to roughly 7 pips. The 1.1455 seven-wk low has been defended twice in this window, while every rally attempt has stalled below the weekly open.
Support: 1.1462, 1.1455
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1481, 1.1495
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.1481 weekly open would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.1455, the seven-wk low, confirms a lower low and voids the range read
Lagarde 12:00 UTC plus Eurozone Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC land inside this session and can break the compression
Wed flash PMIs (EZ 07:15-07:30 UTC, US 13:45 GMT) are the larger structural risk to this range
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled near range lows · RSI 45 · price 1.1463
Lower highs inside a 1.1455-1.1495 band, price pressing the floor.
EUR/USD has been pinned in a 1.1455-1.1495 band since the hawkish-Fed impulse dropped it from 1.1556 to the 1.14546 week low late last week, and Monday's NY session rejected 1.14953 (monday high) before slipping back under the 1.14814 weekly open. The Asia session has drifted to the 1.14616 day low, with price under both EMA20 (~1.1467) and EMA50 and RSI(14) flat around 45 — no downside acceleration, but no recovery attempt either. Each bounce this week has failed ahead of the ema20, keeping the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1467, 1.14814, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.14546 week low confirms a range break and exposes the 1.1450 psych level
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 1.14814 weekly open would negate the lower-high sequence
Lagarde 12:00 UTC and Williams/Jefferson/Barkin Fedspeak could reprice this range intraday
Wednesday's flash PMIs (EZ 07:15 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) are the week's main structural risk to the range read
The dominant move of the window was a single-hour 75-pip slide during the NY session on the hawkish-Fed repricing, which dropped spot from 1.1545 into a 1.1455–1.1495 base that has held since. Monday consolidated inside that base and the rejection at 1.14953 in the NY session left another lower high; Asia has since drifted back to the 1.1463–1.1470 area with price hugging EMA(20) at 1.14703 from below. RSI(14) near 43 is flat rather than oversold, consistent with grinding range trade rather than fresh impulse.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14703, 1.14853, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.14616 session low exposes the 1.14546 week low and the 1.1450 round number
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 1.14703 and the 1.14853 Friday close would neutralise the lower-high sequence
ECB Lagarde 12:00 UTC and US Fedspeak today, then Wednesday's flash PMIs, are the events most able to break this range
Post-FOMC consolidation rolling over; lower highs beneath weekly open.
The window is still defined by last week's hawkish Fed repricing — the single-bar collapse from 1.1535 into 1.1470 — after which the pair has consolidated in a 1.1455–1.1495 band. Monday's session opened at the 1.14814 weekly open, tagged 1.14953 into the London–NY transition and was rejected there, with the decline through NY hours leaving price parked below EMA(20) near 1.1469 and RSI(14) in the low 30s. Asia hours have been inert, holding a few pips above the 1.14616 day low with ATR compressed to under 8 pips.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14545, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1469, 1.14814, 1.14953
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.14616 day low exposes the 1.14545 week low and the 1.1450 psych area
An H1 close back above the 1.14814 weekly open would break the lower-high sequence and neutralise the downtrend read
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 1.1469 is the first condition for the consolidation read to reassert
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and Fed speakers Williams/Jefferson later today could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a range, drifting lower · RSI 36 · price 1.14645
Post-FOMC range 1.1455-1.1495, lower highs, price pinned at range base.
The dominant move of the window was the single 75-pip FOMC bar on Wednesday's NY session, which dropped price from 1.1545 to 1.1470 and set the seven-week low at 1.14546; everything since has been sideways between that floor and the 1.1495 area, well capped by the 1.1500 range cap. Monday opened bid, tagged 1.14953 into the London-NY transition and was rejected, unwinding through the back half of NY to a session low of 1.14616 and closing on the lows. Price has spent the last ten bars beneath EMA20 at roughly 1.1471 with RSI(14) at 36 and no bounce off the average, so this week's pullbacks are no longer being absorbed there.
Support: 1.14616, 1.14546, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14712, 1.14953, 1.1500
What it said to watch
An H1 close below 1.14546 breaks the range floor that has held twice since Wednesday and confirms a lower low toward the 1.1450 psych level
Reclaiming EMA20 near 1.1471 and then Monday's high at 1.14953 would invalidate the lower-highs read and put the 1.1500 range cap back in play
Lagarde at 12:00 GMT plus Williams, Jefferson and Barkin through Tuesday's NY session are the near-term catalysts capable of resolving this range