The slide from 1.1410 has given way to a contracting structure, with lower highs from the 1.1276 swing high and higher lows off the 1.1113 swing low. Price sits mid-pattern at 1.1216, just under a flat EMA20/EMA50 pair, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 pips from 50+ during the earlier selloff. The latest dip held the 1.1188 higher low near the 50% retracement of the rebound from 1.1113, while French spread stress and firm oil cap the range top against a soft dollar.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1260 range top and the lower-highs line opens the path to the 1.1276 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1188 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1113 swing low
Fri flash PMIs (EZ 08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) could resolve the compression either side
Further widening in the French-German 10y spread from about 175bp adds pressure on the range floor
1.1185–1.1270 range since the 1.1113 swing low, lower highs into a flat floor.
Since the 1.1113 swing low, EURUSD has held a 1.1185–1.1270 range for over a week. Highs are stepping lower from 1.1269 to the 1.1256 range cap, while the range floor near 1.1185 has absorbed three tests. Price sits just below the ema20 near the 38.2% retracement of the swing low-to-high rally, and ATR(14) near 23 pips is compressed against the 40+ pip bars of the early-October selloff and its 1.1151 prior low. French spread stress and the oil rally have capped rebounds, while a softer USD after weak housing data has limited downside.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1151, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1260, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1185 range floor confirms a lower-low and reopens the 1.1151 prior low and 1.1113 swing low
Close above the 1.1260 range cap and 1.1276 prior high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.1225 would neutralise the latest rejection from the range cap
Fri 23 Oct flash PMIs (EUR 07:15–08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) and next week's ECB and Fed decisions could break the current ATR compression
17:01 UTC
Broader downtrend paused, range with lower highs · RSI 45 · price 1.12116
Range 1.1188-1.1269 since the 1.1113 low, highs stepping lower.
The slide from 1.1410 bottomed at the 1.1113 window low. The rebound has since stalled into a range, with successive lower highs at the 1.1269 swing high and the 1.1256 lower high, while the 1.1188 range floor has held on three tests. ATR(14) has compressed to about 22 pips from 40-80 pip bars earlier in the window, and price sits just below flat EMA20/EMA50 near the fib rebound's 38.2% at 1.1209. That fits the digest's picture of French spread stress and higher oil capping EUR rebounds while a soft USD limits the downside.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1172, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1188 range floor exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.1172 and reopens the 1.1113 window low
H4 close above the 1.1256 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1269 swing high and 1.1276 prior high into play
Fri 23 Oct flash PMIs (EUR 07:15-08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) could resolve the ATR compression either way
ECB (29 Oct) and Fed decisions next week, plus any further widening of the OAT-Bund spread, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1269 converging on higher lows; latest bar broke the higher-low line.
The rebound from the 1.1113 oct low stalled at the 1.1269 swing high, and successive lower highs at 1.1260 and 1.1256 have compressed price against a higher-low line. The latest bar broke that line and the 1.1215 prior floor, slipping below 1.1200 toward the 1.1180 range floor and roughly the 50% retracement of the October rebound, as France OAT stress and firm oil cap EUR despite a soft USD. ATR(14) near 22 pips is well below the early-month sell-off regime, which points to compression ahead of Friday's PMIs.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1152, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.1256, 1.1269
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1180 range floor exposes the 1.1152 prior low and the 1.1113 oct low
Recovery back above the 1.1215 prior floor would undo the break of the higher-low line
H4 close above the lower-high line near 1.1256 and the 1.1269 swing high would end the lower-highs sequence
Friday's EZ and US flash PMIs, then Moody's France review after the close, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1269 vs higher lows from 1.1180, contracting triangle.
EURUSD slid from 1.1410 at the start of the window to a 1.1113 window low and has rebounded since. The USD leg lower after Tuesday's housing misses lifted the pair, but supply has capped each rally: lower highs at the 1.1269 prior high, then 1.1260, then 1.1256, form a range cap near 1.1258. Higher lows from the 1.1180 swing low up to 1.1214 complete a contracting triangle, and ATR(14) near 20 pips is about half the early-window pace, so the pair is compressing with price just above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.1258 range cap and the 1.1269 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1276 swing high
A break of the 1.1214 higher low turns the triangle lower, with the 1.1180 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) next
Losing 1.1180 reopens the 1.1113 window low and resumes the broader downtrend
Friday's flash PMIs (EZ and US) and Moody's on France late Friday could resolve the compression
French OAT-Bund spread widening past ~160bp is the main pressure on the range cap
Lower highs from the late-Sep peak; rebound since the Oct 14 low is coiling into converging higher lows and lower highs.
The three-week lower-high sequence from 1.1410 ran from the Oct 6 high at 1.1276 down to the Oct 14 low at 1.1113. The rebound since has stalled under the Oct 16 high at 1.1269. Price is now coiling in a pennant, with lower highs at 1.1269, 1.1260 and 1.1256 against higher lows at the 1.1180 Monday low and 1.1214. It is also pinned near the 78.6% retracement of the Oct decline fib. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 20 pips. That fits the digest's read: French fiscal stress caps EUR at 1.1250-1.1260, while ECB hike pricing and a softer USD after the housing misses underpin dips.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1256, 1.1269, 1.1276
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1256 lower highs and the 1.1269 Oct 16 high breaks the pennant to the upside and brings the 1.1276 Oct 6 high into play
H4 close below the 1.1214 higher lows trendline exposes the 1.1180 Monday low, then the 1.1113 Oct 14 low
Panetta at 12:15 UTC today: pushback on December hike pricing could pressure the higher lows
Friday flash PMIs (EUR 07:15-08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) are the likely trigger for resolving the ATR compression
Moody's France review Friday carries weekend gap risk below the higher lows
Higher lows from 1.1113 under a 1.1260-1.1270 lower-high cap.
The early-month lower-high sequence from the 1.1285 prior high ended at the 1.1113 window low. The rally since has printed higher lows at the 1.1180 swing low and the 1.1214 higher low. Supply keeps capping the move, with a 1.1260 lower high under the 1.1269 oct high. That fits the digest's read of French OAT stress weighing on EUR even as the dollar softens. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 20 pips from 35-40 earlier in the window, and EMA20 sits above EMA50, so the pair is coiling between the higher-low trendline and the lower-high line.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1180, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1260, 1.1269, 1.1285
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1269 oct high breaks the lower-high cap and exposes the 1.1285 prior high
Loss of the 1.1214 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 1.1180 swing low, near the 61.8% rally fib
A break of the 1.1113 window low resumes the multi-week lower-low structure
Fri flash PMIs and the Moody's France review could materially shift this read, as could US jobless claims Thu