LH/LL chain from Aug 21 high; 3-week base 1.1113–1.1269.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high at 1.1711. The mid-September break of 1.1461 accelerated the slide to the 1.1113 swing low on Oct 14, and price remains below a falling EMA(50). The past three weeks have compressed into a 1.1113–1.1269 consolidation as a correcting dollar offsets French spread stress and firm oil. The 1.1269 bounce high sits just above the 23.6% fib and alongside EMA(20), capping the rebound, while RSI near 36 has lifted off its lows without reaching neutral.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1113, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1269, 1.1341, 1.1461
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 1.1269 bounce high and EMA(20) breaks the three-week lid and opens the path to the 38.2% fib at 1.1341
Loss of the 1.1180 range floor puts the 1.1113 swing low back in play; a close below it extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 round number
Only a recovery through the 1.1461 breakdown level would undo the September lower-high structure
Friday's EZ and US flash PMIs, followed by the ECB (29 Oct) and Fed decisions next week, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from late-Aug peak; three-week consolidation 1.1113–1.1270.
The downtrend has run since the late-August peak at 1.1711. The mid-September break below 1.1566 set a lower-high/lower-low chain, and the EMA50, now near 1.1380, has rolled over. For roughly three weeks price has compressed between the 1.1113 october low and the 1.1270 rebound high, which coincides with the EMA20. French spread stress and firmer oil are capping EUR rebounds, while soft US housing data has limited further downside.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1113, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1270, 1.1380, 1.1483
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 1.1270 rebound high and EMA20 breaks the consolidation cap and opens the EMA50 near 1.1380
Even above the EMA50, the 61.8% fib at 1.1483 is the line between a correction and a trend change
Failure to hold the 1.1180 week low exposes the 1.1113 october low; a close below it resumes lower lows toward the 1.1000 round number
Fri 23 Oct EZ and US flash PMIs, plus next week's ECB (29 Oct) and Fed decisions, could materially shift this read
Further widening in the French-German 10y spread beyond ~175bp adds pressure on the range floor