Lower highs off 1.1231 with a higher low at 1.1212; compressing post-NY range.
Supply capped the Asian high at 1.1256. London and NY then sold to a 1.1188 day low as oil and wider French spreads weighed, and the rebound was rejected at 1.1231, the fib 61.8% retrace of the sell-off. Thin early-Asia trade is compressing between the 1.1212 late-NY low and 1.1225 under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1225 breaks the lower highs line and opens a retest of the fib 61.8% at 1.1231
Failure to hold the 1.1212 late-NY low exposes the 1.1200 psych pivot and the 1.1188 day low
Only a move back through 1.1231 brings the 1.1256 Asian high back into view
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a miss puts the 1.1200 psych pivot in focus
Lower low at 1.1188 in early NY, rebound to 1.1231, now ranging 1.1212–1.1231 in early Asia.
London broke the prior Asian low at 1.1227. The slide then cleared the 1.1200 psych level into a 1.1188 day low in early NY, driven by oil, wider French spreads and a soft EZ confidence print. A late USD fade lifted price to the 1.1231 NY high. The pullback has held at 1.1212, between the 38.2% and 50% of the NY rebound fib, and early Asia is drifting inside 1.1212–1.1231 with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311
What it said to watch
Close back below the late ny low at 1.1212 reopens the 1.1200 psych level and the 1.1188 day low
Close above the ny high at 1.1231 exposes the asian high at 1.1255
Break of the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib (1.1205) would undo most of the late-NY recovery
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a broad miss puts 1.1200 back in focus
23:16 UTC
Rebound off NY low, flattening in early Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.12201
Tight 1.1212–1.1225 band below the 1.1231 NY high, small higher lows off 1.1212.
London broke below the Asian range and the slide reached a 1.1188 day low early in NY, with oil, wider French spreads and a soft EZ confidence print weighing on EUR. A V-shaped rebound then met rejection at the 1.1231 NY high, and price has since compressed between the 1.1212 post-NY low, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, and a 1.1225 lower high, holding just above the 1.1200 round number in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12253, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 post-NY low reopens the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 day low
Break above the 1.1225 lower high puts the 1.1231 NY high back in play, with the 1.1256 Asian high above
Pullback holding above the NY rally fib 50% (1.1210) keeps the rebound structure intact
HCOB flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC (EZ aggregate 08:00 UTC, services f/c 52.8) could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, recovering off NY low · RSI 56 · price 1.12211
Higher low at 1.1212 within 1.1212–1.1231 band, below 1.1256 day high.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1226 and NY extended to a 1.1188 day low as oil and French spread stress weighed on EUR. The late-NY rebound met rejection at the 1.1231 NY high. The pullback held a 1.1212 swing low inside the 38.2–50% zone of the NY rebound fib. Early Asia is grinding back to 1.1221 on thin ranges, RSI(14) 56.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high reopens the 1.1256 day high
Failure to hold the 1.1212 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number and 1.1188 day low
Flash PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with US PMIs at 13:45 UTC after
Lower high at 1.1231 under the 1.1256 Asian high; higher low at 1.1212 above the 1.1188 day low.
London broke below the Asian range and pushed through 1.1200 into a 1.1188 day low early in NY, driven by oil, French spread stress and the soft EZ confidence miss. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.1231 NY high. Price is now consolidating in thin early Asia between the 1.1212 swing low and 1.1231, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.12121, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1212 swing low reopens the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 day low
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1256 Asian high in play
Price holding above the 38.2% of the NY rebound (~1.1215) keeps the consolidation read intact
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read; a miss would put 1.1200 under pressure
Tight range 1.1212–1.1231 after selloff and partial bounce.
Thursday's London selloff, driven by oil and French spread stress, bottomed at the 1.1188 day low in early NY. The bounce topped at the 1.1231 swing high, and late NY faded to the 1.1212 late-NY low, which held at the 38.2% of the bounce fib. Early Asia is drifting inside 1.1212–1.1231 on thin ranges, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1212 late-NY low exposes the 1.1200 psych pivot and the 1.1188 day low
M15 close above the 1.1231 swing high reopens the 1.1255 Asia high
Failure to hold the 50% of the bounce fib near 1.1210 erodes the rebound structure
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1231 after London-NY selloff; tight consolidation above the late NY low.
London broke below the Asian range and NY printed a 1.1188 day low as oil, wider French spreads and soft EZ Consumer Confidence weighed on EUR. The NY rebound was rejected at the 1.1231 ny high near the 61.8% retracement of the selloff, and price is now in a quiet 1.1212–1.1225 consolidation into the Asia session, sitting on the EMAs.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1212 late ny low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1231 ny high / 61.8% fib negates the rejection read and puts the 1.1256 asian high in view
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could break the consolidation range
Lower highs off 1.1231 rebound high, compressing above 1.1212 into rollover.
London sold EUR/USD off the 1.1256 Asian high to a 1.1188 NY low as oil, French spreads and a soft EZ confidence print weighed. The NY rebound was rejected at the 1.1231 rebound high and has faded on lower highs, with price now sitting just above the 1.1212 late-NY low near the 38.2% retrace of that bounce in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1212 late-NY low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 NY low
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1231 rebound high negates the fade, with the 1.1256 Asian high next
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1231 rejection, drifting post-NY.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.1227, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1188 day low as oil, French spreads and the soft EZ consumer confidence print weighed on EUR. The rebound retested the broken Asian low and was rejected at 1.1231, the 61.8% fib of the day's drop. Thin rollover trade has since printed lower highs toward the 1.1212 late low.
Support: 1.12121, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1222, 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1212 late low exposes 1.1200 psych and the 1.1188 day low
Recovery through the 1.1222 50% fib and the 1.1231 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1256 Asian high above
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Rollover and early-Asia liquidity is thin, so moves before London may not hold
Lower highs off 1.1231 rally high, grinding into rollover.
London sold off from just under the 1.1255 asian high to a 1.1188 ny low as oil and French spreads weighed on EUR. The NY bounce met rejection at the 1.1231 rally high and has since printed lower highs along a descending trendline. Price now sits on the 1.1212 late ny low, just under the 38.2% of the NY bounce, with the 50% near 1.1210 and the 1.1200 round number below.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1217, 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1212 late ny low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 50% of the NY bounce
M15 close above the 1.1217 lower high breaks the trendline; the 1.1231 rally high then comes back into view
Failure to hold 1.1188 ny low extends the day's lower-low sequence
Fri EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read; US PMIs follow at 13:45 UTC
Lower highs under 1.1231 rebound high, pressing late-NY low.
EUR/USD was rejected at the 1.1256 Asian high and slid through 1.1200 on oil, French-spread stress and soft EZ consumer confidence. It printed a 1.1188 session low before a fading USD drove a rebound to 1.1231, which retested broken support and capped. Late NY has since carved lower highs along a falling trendline, with price at 1.1214 sitting on the 1.1212 late-NY low, near the 38.2% of the rebound and just below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1212 late-NY low opens the 1.1200 round number and the 61.8% rebound fib near 1.1205
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.1231 rebound high invalidates the fade
Loss of the 1.1188 session low extends the intraday downtrend
Asia session is thin after rollover, ATR near 3-4 pips
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; Asian high at 1.1256 is the upside reference
21:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 35 · price 1.12127
NY rebound from 1.1188 now fading in a descending sequence.
London broke down from the 1.1255 asian high on oil and French-spread pressure, bottoming at the 1.1188 ny low after the soft EZ consumer confidence print. NY rebounded to the 1.1231 ny high, then late NY faded in lower highs back to the 1.1210 50% fib. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is about 3.7 pips into the quiet post-NY hours.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1210 50% fib and the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1188 ny low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and 1.1225 lower high reopens the 1.1231 ny high
Friday EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read; 1.1255 asian high is the upper bound in play
Lower highs below the broken Asian low, holding near the 38.2% of the NY rebound.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1227, and NY extended to a 1.1188 day low as oil and French spreads weighed on EUR. The NY rebound was rejected at 1.1231, just above the broken Asian low, and late-NY drift has since printed lower highs. Price is sitting on the 38.2% of the rebound near 1.1215, with the session low at 1.1212 just below and ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1212 session low and the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1188 day low
A close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1231 NY high reopens the path to the 1.1256 Asian high
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
20:31 UTC
Post-NY drift lower inside a recovery leg · RSI 44 · price 1.12126
Lower highs below 1.1231 rejection after Asian range broke down.
London broke below the 1.1227–1.1256 Asian range and NY extended to the 1.1188 NY low on oil, French spread pressure and soft EZ confidence. The bounce stalled at the 1.1231 rejection high, a retest of the broken Asian low from below. The post-NY drift is printing lower highs below EMA20/50, with price between the 38.2% fib and the 50% fib of the 1.1188–1.1231 bounce and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.1210 and 1.1200 psych exposes the 1.1188 ny low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1225 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 1.1231 rejection high and then the 1.1256 asian high above
EZ flash PMIs Fri 07:15–08:00 UTC around London open could materially shift this read
London sold EUR from the 1.1255 Asia high to a 1.1188 day low on oil, French spread pressure and the soft EZ consumer confidence print. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.1231 NY high, and a chain of late-session lower highs has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib of the NY leg near 1.1215, with ATR compressed to about 4.6 pips into the Asia session.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
Close below the 38.2% fib at 1.1215 exposes the 1.1200 round number, with the 1.1188 day low beneath
Close above the 1.1224 lower high breaks the post-NY-high descending trendline and reopens the 1.1231 NY high
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read; the 1.1255 asia high caps the upside of the day range
Lower highs below 1.1231 after the London selloff and a partial NY rebound.
Late NY: the pair broke below the Asian low through London, then printed a 1.1188 session low around the NY open as oil, French spreads and soft EZ confidence weighed. The rebound was rejected at 1.1231, just above the broken 1.1227 Asian low, and price has since drifted on lower highs to a 1.1217 drift low, sitting near the 38.2% retracement with RSI(14) ~48 and ATR ~5 pips.
Support: 1.12165, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12252, 1.12311, 1.12269
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1217 drift low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1215 exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 session low
M15 close back above the 1.1225 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; a move through the 1.1231 pm rejection would reclaim the Asian low
Fri HCOB flash PMIs (07:15–08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read around the 1.1200 pivot
Lower highs compressing into a tight late-NY range after a rejection at 1.1231.
London faded the 1.1256 Asian high and pushed through 1.1200 to a 1.1188 session low in NY hours, driven by oil, French yield stress and the soft EZ confidence print. The NY rebound found a rejection at the 1.1231 rally high and has since compressed into a 1.1217 range floor to 1.1225 range top band under a lower-highs line. Price is sitting on EMA20/50, RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1225, 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 range floor exposes 1.1200 psych, near the 38.2% of the NY rebound fib
Loss of 1.1200 puts the 1.1188 session low back in play
Close above the 1.1225 range top and the lower-highs line, then 1.1231 rally high, reopens the 1.1256 asian high
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri (10:15 broker) and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 1.1190 lifted price; tight consolidation under 1.1231 bounce high.
London sold EUR/USD out of the 1.1227–1.1256 Asian range and through 1.1200. Oil, French yields and the soft EZ consumer confidence print (-17.9) did the damage. A double bottom near 1.1190 (session low 1.1188 in early NY) held, and the rebound tagged the 1.1231 bounce high as the dollar faded. After London close, price is coiling 1.1217–1.1225 on flat, converged EMAs with RSI(14) ~56.
Support: 1.12174, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1217 pullback low exposes the 1.1215–1.1210 fib zone and the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1188 session low resumes the London downtrend leg
Close above the 1.1231 bounce high puts the 1.1255 Asian high back in play
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could set the next range around the London open
19:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling after NY low · RSI 59 · price 1.12187
V-rebound from 1.1188, tight consolidation below 1.1231 rebound high.
London faded the 1.1256 Asian high, and the slide extended through the 1.1200 round number at the NY open to a 1.1188 NY low as oil, French spreads and a USD bounce weighed. The V-shaped rebound met rejection at the 1.1231 rebound high, and late NY price is compressing above the 1.1217 minor low, holding over the 38.2% fib near 1.1215.
Support: 1.1217, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1217 minor low opens a deeper fib retrace toward the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1188 NY low resumes the day's lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1231 rebound high puts the 1.1256 Asian high back in range
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Post-recovery consolidation 1.1219–1.1231 after 1.1188 low.
The Asian high at 1.1256 capped price, and the pair slid through London. Oil, firmer French yields and soft EZ confidence took it below 1.1200 into the NY open and down to the 1.1188 NY low. The NY recovery retraced about 42 pips to a 1.1231 swing high. Late in the NY session, price is compressing just above the 1.1219 swing low near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 53 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1219 swing low exposes the 38.2% NY recovery fib at 1.1215 and the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.1231 swing high reopens the path toward the 1.1256 asian high
A break back below the 1.1188 ny low would resume the London-NY downleg
Fri flash PMIs (EZ 07:15–08:00 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; thin rollover liquidity comes first
Late-NY consolidation 1.1219–1.1231 below the 61.8% retrace.
London unwound the Asian range after another failure at the 1.1255 Asian high. Pressure from French spreads and oil pushed the pair below 1.1200 into the NY open, to a 1.1188 session low. The NY rebound was rejected at the 1.1231 NY high, the 61.8% fib, and price is now compressing just above the 1.1219 micro low near the 50% retrace, with RSI(14) near 61 and price hugging EMA50.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1255
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high (61.8% fib) reopens the 1.1255 Asian high
Break of the 1.1219 micro low exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 session low
EZ flash PMIs Fri 07:15–08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:31 UTC
V-rebound off NY low, stalling at 61.8% retracement · RSI 61 · price 1.12224
Higher lows from 1.1188, capped at 1.1231 NY high, late-NY tight range.
The 1.1256 asian high capped again, and London sold through 1.1200 on French spread stress and firmer oil, putting the NY low at 1.1188 at 14:15 UTC. The rebound stalled with a rejection at the 1.1231 NY high, the 61.8% retracement of that decline. Late in the NY session price is consolidating between 1.1219 and 1.1231, sitting on the rebound trendline with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 pivot low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 NY low
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high clears the 61.8% rejection and puts the 1.1256 asian high back in view
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 to 08:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; the Asian range ahead of them is likely to be thin
London broke below the Asian range; NY V-rebound rejected at the Asian low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1227 and extended to a 1.1188 day low in early NY. French spread stress and firm oil weighed on EUR. The NY rebound retested the broken Asian low from below and met rejection at the 1.1231 NY high; late in the NY session price is holding the 1.1219 swing low, above the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.12186, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 1.1255 Asian high above
Failure to hold the 1.1219 swing low exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1188 day low
38.2% of the NY rebound sits near 1.1215; a deeper retrace toward 50% (1.1210) weakens the recovery
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Friday could materially shift this read at the London open
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1227 and slid to a 1.1188 session low as the USD rebound, oil and French spread stress weighed. Late NY recovered to a 1.1231 NY high, the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.1256 Asian high, and was rejected there. The 1.1219 higher low is holding on the rising trendline, RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.12186, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1231 NY high opens the path back toward the 1.1256 asian high
Loss of the 1.1219 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1188 session low
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
London lower lows from Asian range; NY recovery capped below Asian low.
London broke the 1.1227 Asian low and ran to a 1.1188 session low as the USD rebounded on oil, French spreads and the 194K claims beat. NY hours recovered about 43 pips, but the 17:15 retest of the Asian low was rejected at the 1.1231 NY high. Price is holding the 1.1219 pullback low with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.12186, 1.12148, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12311, 1.12435, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1231 NY high reopens the 1.1244 London high and the 1.1256 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1219 pullback low tests rising support and the 38.2% fib near 1.1215
Failure at the 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1188 session low, near the 1.1185 support flagged in the digest
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; higher-low chain off 1.1188 now capped near 1.1231.
London sold EUR/USD from the 1.1255 asian high to a 1.1188 session low in early NY as the USD rebounded on oil-driven risk-off and the claims beat. The late-NY rebound met a rejection at 1.1231 on a retest of the London breakdown area. The 1.1215 prior low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound.
Support: 1.1215, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1231, 1.1243, 1.1255
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1215 prior low / 38.2% fib keeps the NY rebound structure intact
M15 close above the 1.1231 rejection high reopens the 1.1243 london pivot
Loss of the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1188 session low
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri, then US PMIs at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL rally off day low into the London breakdown zone.
The London leg down from the 1.1256 Asian high, driven by French spread stress and the USD rebound after firm claims, bottomed at the 1.1188 day low. NY then recovered about 40 pips in a clean HH/HL chain. Price is now retesting the old Asian range floor at the 61.8% fib near 1.1230, with RSI(14) at 74 and the latest higher low at 1.1221.
Support: 1.1221, 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.1230, 1.12435, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1230 (61.8% fib) brings the 1.1244 lower high and then the 1.1256 asian high into play
Loss of the 1.1221 higher low breaks the NY rally trendline and reopens the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold 1.1200 puts the 1.1188 day low back in focus
EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high; V-shaped recovery off NY day low testing broken 1.1222-1.1230 zone.
London sold EURUSD from the 1.1256 asia high through 1.1200 as French spread stress and a claims-led USD rebound hit the euro, with the move bottoming at the 1.1188 day low early in NY hours. A 36-pip recovery since has carried price into the 1.1225 session high after London close, sitting between the fib 50% at 1.1222 and the fib 61.8% at 1.1230, RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.1222, 1.12153, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12253, 1.1230, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1230 fib 61.8% breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1256 asia high
Rejection at the 1.1225 session high plus a loss of the recovery line and fib 50% at 1.1222 exposes the 1.1215 prior low
Failure to hold 1.1215 returns focus to the 1.1188 day low
Eurozone flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC Fri and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, higher low and break of 1.1209 lower high in NY.
EUR/USD broke the Asian range low at 1.1227 after London open and slid to a 1.1188 session low in the first hour of NY, with French spreads and oil weighing on the euro. The late-NY rebound cleared the 1.1209 broken lh and now sits at the asian low from below, near the 50% fib of the 1.1256–1.1188 drop, RSI(14) near 65.
Support: 1.1209, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1234, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1227 asian low opens the 1.1234 london pivot, the 61.8% fib area
Rejection at 1.1227 keeps the move a retest inside the downtrend
Loss of the 1.1209 broken lh and the ny rebound line puts the 1.1200 round number and 1.1188 session low back in focus
1.1256 asian high marks the day's rejection near 1.1250
Fri EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; double bottom and higher lows off 1.1188.
After failing at the 1.1256 Asian high, EUR/USD broke the 1.1227 Asian low from London open and slid to a 1.1188 day low in NY as oil and French spreads weighed and the USD rebounded. A double bottom at 1.1192/1.1188 and a break of the 1.1210 breakout level have price at a 1.1220 rebound high, near the 50% fib at 1.1222 and just under the Asian low, with RSI(14) at 58.
Support: 1.1210, 1.1200, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1220, 1.1227, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1227 Asian low and the 50% fib puts price back inside the Asian range
Rejection at the 1.1220 rebound high followed by a break of the rebound trendline returns focus to the 1.1210 breakout level
Loss of the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1188 day low, the floor of the double bottom
Fri flash EZ PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL from Asia high to day low; HH/HL recovery off the NY low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1227 and sold to a 1.1188 day low in NY. The digest ties the drop to a USD rebound on oil and French spread stress. After London close the bounce has printed higher highs off the 1.1199 higher low along the NY bounce line, and price now holds the 1.1215 prior low just under the 1.1224 broken shelf, which sits at the 50% fib of the Asia high-to-day low drop (RSI(14) ~61, below 70).
Support: 1.1215, 1.1199, 1.1188
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 broken shelf / 50% fib opens the path back toward the 1.1256 asia high
Rejection at 1.1224 and a close back below the 1.1215 prior low would mark the bounce as a retest of the breakdown
Loss of the NY bounce line and the 1.1199 higher low re-exposes the 1.1188 day low, near the 1.1185/1.1170 support zone
Fri flash EZ PMIs (from 07:15 UTC) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off NY low · RSI 58 · price 1.12117
Double bottom at 1.1188-1.1192, neckline 1.12094 cleared; first higher high since London.
London broke the Asian low at 1.12269 and yesterday's 1.12153 prior low, extending to a 1.11883 session low early in NY hours. The USD bounced on the claims beat while French spread worries weighed on EUR. A double bottom has since cleared the 1.12094 neckline and the 38.2% fib of the London decline. Price is now testing the prior low at 1.1215, which sits at the 50% retracement, with a recovery line off the session low underneath.
Support: 1.11987, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12153, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12153 prior low / 50% fib opens the 1.12269 Asian low
Failure to hold the 1.11987 higher low breaks the recovery line and the double bottom read
Loss of the 1.11883 session low resumes the London downtrend
Fri 07:15-08:00 UTC Eurozone flash PMIs could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1256 Asian high; micro higher lows off 1.1188 capped at 1.1209.
After rejection at the 1.1256 Asian high, London broke the 1.1227 Asian low and NY extended to a 1.1188 session low as USD firmed on the claims beat and French spread worries weighed on EUR. Late NY has printed higher lows off 1.1188, but the 1.1209 swing high caps price at the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 46 and price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 1.1199, 1.1188, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1209, 1.1215, 1.1227
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 swing high opens the 1.1215 prior low, where the 38.2% fib sits
Failure to hold the 1.1199 higher low puts the 1.1188 session low back in play; a break there exposes the 1.1170 range floor
Reclaiming the 1.1227 Asian low would undo the London breakdown
Friday flash PMIs (EUR from 07:15 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) and French spread headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high at 1.1256; Asian range broken lower at London.
London broke the asian low at 1.1226 and pushed through 1.1200. French spreads, oil and the weak EZ consumer confidence print weighed on EUR, and the claims beat added to the pressure into the NY session low at 1.1188. The NY bounce stalled at 1.1206, a lower high just under the 23.6% fib and below the 1.1209 midday high, and price is back at 1.1200 under EMA20.
Support: 1.11924, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12059, 1.12094, 1.12262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 midday high breaks the lower-high chain; the asian low at 1.1226 is next overhead
Failure to hold the 1.1192 swing low and the 1.1188 session low extends the lower-low sequence
No scheduled data in the next 8h; Friday flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT are the next scheduled catalyst
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off day low · RSI 50 · price 1.12026
Lower highs from the Asia high; early-NY dip below the London low reversed, price testing ema20.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.1256 Asia high. London failed near 1.1250 and the slide broke below 1.1200 as oil and French yields weighed. An early-NY dip under the London low to the 1.1188 day low reversed quickly, and price is back at the 1.1200 round number and the ema20, with the 1.1209 swing high and the 1.1214 prior low overhead.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11883
Resistance: 1.12094, 1.1214
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 1.1214 prior low and the 38.2% fib sit just above
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number reopens the 1.1188 day low
Friday's flash EZ PMIs (from 07:15 GMT) and US PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range low.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.1227, and the slide extended under 1.1200 into the NY open. Oil strength and rising French yields weighed on EUR. Price is bouncing from the 1.1188 session low toward the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) at 43 and still below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1209, 1.1227
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 swing high (38.2% fib, lower-highs line) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1188 session low extends the lower-low chain into 1.1185 supp
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number keeps the post-London downtrend intact
Oil / Middle East headlines and Friday flash PMIs (France from 07:15 GMT) could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.1256 Asian high; Asian range broken lower in London.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1227 and the 1.1200 round number. The NY-hours rebound stalled at 1.1209, a lower high at the 38.2% of the London leg. A fresh session low at 1.1188 followed the US claims beat and the EZ consumer confidence miss, with RSI(14) near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.11883, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12094, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number would stall the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1209 lower high (38.2% of London leg) breaks the downtrend structure
Break below the 1.1188 session low extends the chain toward the 1.1170 range floor
The 1.1227 Asian low now sits overhead as a cap
Fri EZ flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 34 · price 1.11924
Asian range broken lower in London; NY printing LH/LL below 1.1200.
London broke the 1.1227–1.1256 Asian range and yesterday's 1.1214 prior low as oil, French yields and the EZ consumer confidence miss weighed on EUR. Through the first hour of NY, price has printed lower highs under the 1.1200 pivot down to a 1.1188 session low. RSI(14) near 34 is holding above its late-London trough despite the lower low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.11883, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12094, 1.12142
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 pivot and the lower-highs line breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1188 session low exposes the 1.1170 range floor
Recovery through the 1.1209 bounce high (38.2% of the london leg) opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.1214 prior low
Friday's flash PMIs from 07:15 UTC are the next scheduled risk; nothing on the calendar in the coming hours
LH/LL chain from Asian high, trading below 1.1200.
Lower highs since the 1.1256 Asian high. London broke the Asian range low at 1.1227 and slipped through the 1.1200 round number late in the session as rising French yields and the oil spike weighed. The bounce to the 1.1209 swing high faded into the NY open, and price now sits on the 1.1190 session low with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.1190
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1209, 1.1214
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number neutralises the break; above the 1.1209 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
The prior low at 1.1214 overlaps the 38.2% retrace of the London leg, the first area to watch for rejection on a deeper bounce
Friday flash PMIs (EZ from 07:15 UTC, US 13:45 UTC) and the Moody's France review could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range.
London broke the 1.1227 Asian range low and the slide carried through 1.1200 into the NY open as French yields and oil weighed on EUR. Price is printing a fresh session low near 1.1191 with RSI(14) around 30. NY-hours lower highs at 1.1205 and the 1.1209 bounce high sit below yesterday's prior low at 1.1214.
Support: 1.11913
Resistance: 1.12048, 1.12094, 1.12142
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1191 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1185
Reclaim of 1.1214 prior low puts price back inside yesterday's range
EZ Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt this read
London broke the Asian range (1.1227–1.1256) lower. A chain of lower highs took price through the 1.1200 round number to a session low at 1.1192, as French yields and the oil spike weighed on EUR. Since late London price has held a tight 1.1192–1.1209 range, capped by the bounce high into the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.11924, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12094, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1192 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1185 key support
Reclaim of the 1.1209 bounce high and the 1.1200 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Return inside the Asian range above 1.1227 (asian low) would turn the London break into a false break
EZ Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC is the near-term event risk
Lower highs from 1.1256 Asian high, tight base 1.1192–1.1209.
London broke the 1.1227 Asian low and then yesterday's 1.1215 prior low. Selling ran to a 1.1192 session low into the NY open, with French yields and oil weighing on EUR. Since then price has based between 1.1192 and the 1.1209 bounce high, capped near the 23.6% retrace of the 1.1256–1.1192 leg, and is now sitting on the 1.1200 round number with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11924
Resistance: 1.12094, 1.12153, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1192 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1185 area flagged in the digest
Reclaim of the 1.1209 bounce high and the 1.1215 prior low turns the base into a deeper retrace; the 1.1227 Asian low sits near the 61.8% level
EZ Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC (f/c -17) could shift this read inside the next two bars
London broke below the Asian range; lower highs since 07:00 UTC, tight NY consolidation.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1227 and the prior low near 1.1214, then reached a 1.1192 session low as French yields and oil weighed on EUR. The NY-open bounce stalled at the 1.1209 bounce high, between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements of the London leg. Price is compressing just above the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11924
Resistance: 1.12094, 1.1214, 1.12269
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1214 prior low puts price back above the broken level and weakens the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.1192 session low confirms a lower low toward the digest's 1.1185 support
A break of the 1.1209 bounce high clears the 23.6% fib and opens a retest of the 1.1227 Asian low
EZ Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC (f/c -17) could jolt the 1.1200 psych area
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing early NY · RSI 33 · price 1.12032
Lower highs since Asia; London broke the Asian range low and prior low, early NY basing above 1.1192.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1227 and yesterday's 1.1214 prior low, then extended to a 1.1192 session low as French yields and oil weighed on EUR. Early NY is holding a tight 1.1192–1.1209 band around the 1.1200 round number, capped by the lower-high trendline from 1.1244, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-30.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11924
Resistance: 1.12094, 1.12142, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1209 bounce high and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence; the 1.1214 prior low then becomes the first test
Failure to hold 1.1192 session low confirms a fresh lower-low below the 1.1200 round number
Asian low at 1.1227 aligns near the 50% fib retracement of the 1.1256–1.1192 leg
EUR Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs through London, small base 1.1192–1.1209 in first hour of NY.
London broke the asian low at 1.1227 and yesterday's prior low at 1.1214, extending to a 1.1192 session low as the crude spike and French fiscal stress weighed on the euro. Early NY is basing just above the 1.1200 round number. The 1.1209 bounce high sits below the 38.2% retracement of the London leg (~1.1212), and RSI(14) is near 31 but not oversold.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11924
Resistance: 1.12094, 1.12142, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1192 session low resumes the London downtrend
Recovery through the bounce high and back above the 1.1214 prior low (near the 38.2% London leg fib) would mark the 1.1200 break as a false break
Return inside the Asian range above the 1.1227 asian low invalidates the range break read
EZ Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC (f/c -17) could shift this read during NY hours
London lower-high chain from 1.1244; Asian range low and prior low broken.
London sold through the asian low at 1.1227 and yesterday's prior low near 1.1214, as the crude spike and French fiscal stress capped the euro, printing a session low at 1.1192 at 11:45 UTC. The rebound from the session low has stalled at the 1.1209 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib of the 1.1244–1.1192 leg, with price holding just above the 1.1200 round number into the first hour of NY.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11924
Resistance: 1.12094, 1.1214, 1.1227
What it said to watch
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) land in the current bar and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number re-exposes the 1.1192 session low
M15 close back above the 1.1214 prior low turns the London break into a false break, with the 1.1227 asian low next
EZ consumer confidence at 14:00 UTC is a secondary risk during NY hours
Lower highs from the 1.1244 london high; Asian range and prior-day low broken during London.
London sold off from the 1.1244 london high, cutting through the 1.1227 asian low and yesterday's 1.1214 prior low to a 1.1192 session low as oil and French fiscal risk weighed on EUR. Price is bouncing off the 1.1200 round number toward the 38.2% of the london leg fib, which sits at the 1.1214 prior low. RSI(14) is near 31 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11924
Resistance: 1.12142, 1.12269, 1.12435
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1214 prior low, which is the 38.2% of the london leg fib, undercuts the breakdown read
Reclaim of the 1.1227 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1192 session low extends the lower-low sequence below the 1.1200 round number
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended into London lows · RSI 28 · price 1.1199
Lower highs since 1.1244; Asian range and prior-day low broken.
London took out the Asian low at 1.1227 and the prior low at 1.1214, extending a lower-highs chain to a 1.1192 session low as oil and French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Price is pinned at the 1.1200 round number into the NY open with RSI(14) near 28, and the 38.2% of the London leg fib sits at 1.1212.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1185, 1.1170
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1227
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Panetta at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the 1.1192 session low exposes the 1.1185 range floor, then the 1.1170 lower band
An M15 close back above the 1.1214 prior low breaks the lower-highs sequence
A reclaim of the 1.1227 Asian low invalidates the range-break read
Lower highs since 08:15 UTC; Asian range broken to the downside.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1227 and yesterday's prior NY low at 1.1214, setting a session low at 1.1196 as the oil spike and French fiscal risk weighed on EUR. Highs have stepped lower since the 1.1244 lower high, forming a falling trendline. Price is stalling just above the 1.1200 psych level with RSI(14) at 28.
Support: 1.1196, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1227, 1.1244
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1196 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1185 range edge
Recovery above the 1.1214 prior NY low and the falling trendline weakens the downtrend read; the 1.1227 Asian low sits near the 50% retracement of the Asia high-session low fib
Reclaim of the 1.1244 lower high invalidates the London downtrend structure
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, into the NY open, could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late London · RSI 27 · price 1.12011
Lower highs from 1.1256, Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1227 and cut through yesterday's 1.1214 prior low, printing a session low at 1.1196 under a clean chain of lower highs from 1.1256. Price is sitting on the 1.1200 round number with RSI(14) near 27, as crude and French fiscal risk weigh on EUR despite a softer dollar.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11958
Resistance: 1.12142, 1.12241, 1.12269
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1214 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1196 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1185 support flagged in the digest
Price capped below the 1.1224 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.1256-1.1196 drop, keeps the downtrend sequence intact; a reclaim of the 1.1227 asian low neutralises it
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC around NY open could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1256 Asian session high; Asian low and prior low broken in London.
London extended a lower-high sequence from the 1.1256 Asian session high, slicing through the Asian low at 1.1227 and yesterday's prior low at 1.1214 to a fresh session low at 1.1199, right on the 1.1200 round number. RSI(14) near 25 shows short-term stretch. Oil strength and French fiscal risk weighing on EUR fit the move.
Support: 1.1199, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1227, 1.1244
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1199 session low exposes the 1.1185 range floor flagged in the macro digest
Reclaim of the 1.1214 prior low would mark the break as a false break; 1.1227 Asian low lines up with the 50% fib of the decline
M15 close above the 1.1244 lower high clears the lower-highs trendline and ends the LH/LL chain
ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read into the NY open
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 32 · price 1.12145
Asian range broken to downside, LH/LL chain since 03:15 UTC high.
London broke the 1.1227 Asian low and has stacked lower highs off the 1.1256 Asian high. Price now sits at the 1.1213 session low, level with yesterday's 1.1214 NY low, with RSI(14) near 32, soft but not yet oversold. Higher crude and French fiscal risk are keeping EUR heavy despite a softer dollar.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.12435, 1.12556
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1213 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1200 round number
A recovery back above the 1.1227 Asian low turns the break into a false break. The 50% fib of the Asian high move near 1.1234 and the 1.1244 lower high sit above
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) land into the NY open and could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.1256 Asian high; Asian range broken lower in London.
The Asia spike to the 1.1256 Asian high faded into a chain of lower highs. London broke the 1.1227 Asian low, with crude strength and French fiscal stress capping EUR. Price is sitting just above the 1.1216 London low and yesterday's 1.1214 prior low, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.12159, 1.12142, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12269, 1.12401, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1227 Asian low and a break of the lower-highs line near 1.1240 lower high would neutralise the downtrend read
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Panetta at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read into NY open
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold-adjacent near lows · RSI 32 · price 1.12213
Lower highs since London open; Asian range low broken.
London unwound the full Asia-session rally to the Asian high at 1.1256 and broke the Asian low at 1.1227. It printed a session low at 1.1216, just above the prior low at 1.1214, with a lower-high chain since London open and RSI(14) near 31. The fade matches the digest's oil and French-fiscal drag on EUR, outweighing a soft dollar.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1227, 1.1240, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the prior low at 1.1214 extends the lower-low chain toward the digest's 1.1185 support
Reclaim of the Asian low at 1.1227 (near the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high to session low move) would neutralise the range break
Failure to clear the prior high at 1.1240 (the 61.8% retracement) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.12239
Asian range broken lower, testing prior low.
The Asia spike to the 1.1256 Asian high faded into a chain of lower highs. Mid-London, price broke the 1.1227 Asian low and printed a 1.1216 session low just above yesterday's 1.1214 prior low, with crude and French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. RSI(14) sits mid-30s, not stretched.
Support: 1.12159, 1.12142, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12269, 1.12435, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1227 Asian low and the lower-high trendline (~1.1238) would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1214 prior low exposes the 1.1200 round number
ECB Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A move through the 1.1244 lower high reopens the 1.1256 Asian high
Asian range broken lower, lower-high sequence through London.
London faded the Asian spike to 1.1256, broke the asian low at 1.1227 and stepped down through a chain of lower highs to a fresh session low at 1.1218 in late London. Price is now sitting just above yesterday's prior low cluster at 1.1214–1.1215 with RSI(14) at 33, soft but not stretched, consistent with the digest's French-fiscal and oil drag on EUR.
Support: 1.12183, 1.12145, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12269, 1.12325, 1.12435
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the prior low at 1.1214 exposes the 1.1200 round number
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.1227 and the fib 38.2 at 1.1232 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
M15 close above the 1.1244 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
ECB Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 34 · price 1.12261
Asian rally fully retraced, London printing lower highs into the Asian low.
The Asian-session spike to the 1.1256 Asian high was rejected, and London has stepped down through lower highs at 1.1248, 1.1244 and 1.1240. EUR is giving back early gains as higher crude and French fiscal stress weigh, leaving price pressing the 1.1227 Asian low with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1240, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 1.1215 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.1240 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London downtrend read
ECB Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
A move above the 1.1256 Asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 1.12313
Lower highs since 03:15 UTC; price near the base of the Asian range.
Asia pushed EURUSD to a 1.1256 Asian high. London unwound the move, briefly sweeping the Asian low into a 1.1226 London low. The bounce was rejected at the 1.1244 London high, and lower highs since have taken price back to 1.1231, below EMA20 and EMA50, with French yields and oil offsetting the softer dollar tone.
Support: 1.12262, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.12556
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1226 London low exposes yesterday's 1.1214 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1244 London high breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 1.1256 Asian high
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) during the London-NY transition could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asian spike · RSI 41 · price 1.12313
Lower highs since 1.1256; Asian low swept, bounce faded.
Asia spiked to the 1.1256 Asian high as DXY slid to a 3-week low, but price has since printed a lower high at 1.1251 and a chain of lower highs below the falling trendline. London dipped to a 1.1226 session low, just under the Asian low, and the rebound was rejected at the 1.1243 bounce high near the 61.8% fib. Price is now back near 1.1231, below EMA20/50, with RSI at 41.
Support: 1.12262, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.1251, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1214 prior low
M15 close above the 1.1243 bounce high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1251 lower high
ECB's Panetta 12:15 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.12333
Lower highs from 1.1256 asia high; london low 1.1226 holding at the Asian range floor.
Asia pushed through yesterday's 1.1240 high to 1.1256 and was rejected at the 1.1250-60 cap. London has printed lower highs since, retracing ~78% of the Asian rally, and the 1.1226 london low briefly undercut the Asian low before buyers stepped in. Mid-London, price sits below EMA20/50 as oil-driven EUR weakness offsets a soft dollar.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 london low breaks the Asian range floor and opens the 1.1214 prior low
Close above the 1.1244 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.1256 asia high caps above
ECB Panetta 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC into the NY open could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1256 Asian high; Asian spike fully retraced.
The USD-softness Asian spike to the 1.1256 Asian high has been fully unwound in the first hour of London. Price printed a lower high at 1.1248, then dipped to 1.1226 and briefly cleared the Asian low before closing back near 1.1230. RSI(14) is at 39, with price below both EMAs and supply capping each bounce.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1248, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1226 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1215 swing low from yesterday's NY session
Recovery above 1.1238 (fib 38.2 of the Asian spike) breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1248 lower high is next above
ECB Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Intraday range, pulling back after failed Asia break · RSI 42 · price 1.12344
Lower highs from 1.1255 session high; Asian breakout fully unwound.
The late-Asia push above the asian high to the 1.1255 session high has fully reversed. London open stalled at a lower high near 1.1248, then dropped to the 1.1232 london low, beyond the 61.8% of the Asia breakout fib. Price sits back inside the Asian range at 1.1234, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, matching the digest's capped, range-bound EUR read.
Support: 1.1232, 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1248, 1.1255
What it said to watch
Holding under the asian high at 1.1236 keeps the false break read; an M15 close back above the 1.1248 london high reasserts the Asia advance
A break of the 1.1232 london low exposes the asian low at 1.1227, then the yday low at 1.1214
A close above the lower highs trendline from the 1.1255 session high would end the rejection sequence
ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
07:31 UTC
Range after Asian rally, lower highs forming · RSI 47 · price 1.12416
Early London compression between 1.1237 and 1.1251, retesting prior high.
The Asian rally from the 1.1227 asian low broke yesterday's 1.1240 prior high and reached the 1.1256 asian high as USD stayed heavy. It then retraced into the 50–61.8% zone. Early London is compressing under a line of lower highs, with a rejection at 1.1251 and a 1.1237 swing low below; price is retesting the prior high and RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12374, 1.12269
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1237 swing low fails the prior high retest and exposes the 1.1227 asian low
Close above the 1.1251 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1256 asian high
ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian breakout, now retesting prior high under lower highs.
The Asia session broke above yesterday's 1.1240 prior high to a 1.1256 session high, then faded into a 1.1237–1.1251 consolidation capped by lower highs. Into London open price is retesting the prior high. The 1.1237 range low is holding near the 61.8% of the Asian rally. The French business-climate beat gave only a brief lift, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1237, 1.1227
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1237 range low exposes the 1.1227 asian low and fails the breakout retest
Close above the 1.1251 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1256 session high
ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above yesterday's high, retest holding, lower high at 1.1251.
Asia broke above yesterday's 1.1240 prior high to a 1.1256 asia high. Pre-London dips to the 1.1237 pre-London low held near the 61.8% of that leg, and the bounce coincided with the French manufacturing climate beat (105 vs 101). The 1.1251 lower high caps the move, and London opens at 1.1243 with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1237, 1.1227
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.12556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1237 pre-London low breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the 1.1227 asia low
M15 close above the 1.1251 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1256 asia high
Loss of the 1.1240 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum stalling below the session high · RSI 48 · price 1.12454
Asian breakout above the prior high, now holding a retest with a lower high at 1.1251.
A softer USD lifted EURUSD out of the Asian range high at 1.1235 and through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1240 to a 1.1256 session high. The pullback held the 1.1239–1.1241 retest near the 50–61.8% fib, but the 05:45 UTC push stalled at a 1.1251 lower high, leaving price compressed into the London open with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1235, 1.1227
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.1256, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1256 session high puts the 1.1260–1.1276 cap zone of lower highs in play
Failure to hold the 1.1240 prior high returns price to the old Asian high at 1.1235, with the Asian low at 1.1227 below that
Loss of the Asian rising support trendline negates the breakout-retest read
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke the Wednesday high and is now consolidating 1.1239–1.1251 under a lower high.
Asia broke above Wednesday's 1.1240 high on a soft dollar and ran to the 1.1256 Asian high, where it was rejected at the 1.1252–1.1260 range cap. A 05:45 UTC spike to 1.1251 printed a lower high and was sold straight back. Price is pinned at 1.1243 ahead of London open. The wed high retest is holding between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.1256, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1239, the wed high retest low, reopens the 1.1227 Asian low
Close above the 1.1256 Asian high clears the lower high and puts the 1.1260 range cap back in play
Loss of the 1.1227 Asian low exposes the 1.1214 wed low
London open within the hour; Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
06:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 64 · price 1.12507
Asia break of prior-day high, retest held, higher low.
Asia session cleared yesterday's 1.1240 prior high and tagged 1.1256, into the 1.1252–1.1260 range cap that has capped the pair repeatedly this month. The pullback found demand at 1.1239, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the Asian low-to-high move, and the last bar is back at 1.1251 ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1227
Resistance: 1.12556, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1256 asian high clears the range cap and opens 1.1260
Failure to hold the 1.1240 prior high puts price back in yesterday's range, toward the 1.1227 asian low
A break of the rising support line from the asian low weakens the higher-low sequence
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, retest holding, compressing pre-London.
With the dollar soft on falling US yields, EUR/USD broke Wednesday's 1.1240 prior high in the Asia session. The spike was rejected at the 1.1256 asia high, inside the 1.1252–1.1260 cap. The pullback held the prior high near the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia rally fib, and price is now compressing under a 1.1245 range top ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 58.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12269, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12445, 1.12556
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 1.1239 would turn the prior high retest into a false break and expose the 1.1227 asian low
Loss of the 1.1227 asian low puts Wednesday's 1.1214 prior low back in play
Clearance of the 1.1245 range top opens a retest of the 1.1256 asia high and the 1.1252–1.1260 cap
Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wed NY; Asian spike faded, pullback holding prior high.
Late Asia pushed through Wednesday's 1.1240 prior high to a 1.1256 Asian high. Price was then rejected just under the 1.1252–1.1260 zone that the digest flags as the month's repeated cap. The pullback found support at 1.1239, the 50% retrace of the Asian rally, and price is now compressing between 1.1239 and the 1.1245 range top just above EMA20 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.1239, 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1239 prior high turns the Asian breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.1227 Asian low
Close above the 1.1245 range top reopens the 1.1256 Asian high and the 1.1260 cap
Break of the higher-lows trendline near 1.1230 ends the sequence off Wednesday's 1.1214 day low
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in early NY session
Asia break of prior-day high, rejection at 1.1256, retest holding 1.1240.
The Asia session broke above the prior high at 1.1240 in an Asian leg from 1.1227 to a 1.1256 session high, tagging the 1.1250-1.1260 cap tied to French fiscal stress, then rejected back to 1.1239. The pullback held near the 61.8% level of that leg, and price is now compressing in a 3-pip band under the 1.12445 range top ahead of London open. RSI(14) has cooled to about 57.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.12445, 1.12556
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1240 prior high voids the breakout and puts the 1.1227 asian low in play.
A clear move through the 1.12445 range top reopens a test of the 1.1256 session high and the 1.1260 cap.
A move below 1.1227 would expose the 1.1214 day low.
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read.
04:31 UTC
Intraday up-leg, pausing below the cap · RSI 60 · price 1.12432
Asia breakout above the prior high, rejected at 1.1256, now retesting 1.1240.
Late in the Asia session, a 30-pip leg off the 1.1227 asian low cleared yesterday's 1.1240 prior high and tagged a 1.1256 session high. Supply appeared inside the 1.1250–1.1260 cap flagged by the soft-USD, French-stress backdrop, and the pullback has so far held 1.1239 on a retest of the prior high, roughly a 56% retracement of the leg. RSI(14) has cooled to about 60 from the spike.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12269, 1.12137
Resistance: 1.12556, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1240 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.1227 asian low
A close above the 1.1256 session high would put the 1.1260 cap back in play
A break below the asian low brings the 1.1214 prior low back into focus
London open in about 2.5h; Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
04:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back after spike · RSI 60 · price 1.1243
Asian breakout above prior high, now retesting it.
Asia session broke above yesterday's 1.1240 prior high with the dollar on the back foot. The move spiked to a 1.1256 session high and was rejected above the 1.1250 psych level. The pullback is holding the 1.1240 prior high, near the 50% retracement of the Asian leg, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 60.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1250, 1.1256
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1240 prior high returns price to yesterday's range and exposes the 1.1227 asian low
Failure at the 1.1227 asian low opens yesterday's 1.1214 day low
Acceptance above the 1.1250 psych level and the 1.1256 session high brings the 1.1260 cap into play
London open in about 3h, then Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could shift this read
04:01 UTC
Asia breakout, pulling back from highs · RSI 57 · price 1.12418
Breakout above prior high, lower highs since 1.1256 peak.
Late Asia broke the 1.1227–1.1236 Asian range and Wednesday's 1.1240 prior high, running to a 1.1256 session high into the 1.1250–1.1260 cap flagged in the EUR digest. Rejection there produced lower highs at 1.1252 and 1.1247, and price is now retesting the prior high near the 50% retrace of the move, RSI(14) cooled to ~57 ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12404, 1.12356, 1.12269
Resistance: 1.12473, 1.12556
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1240 prior high puts the 1.1236 asian high back in play and turns the move into a false break
M15 close back above the 1.1247 lower high reopens the 1.1256 session high and the 1.1260 cap
Loss of the 1.1227 asian low fully unwinds the Asia breakout
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday breakout higher, first pullback in progress · RSI 72 · price 1.12495
Wednesday's 1.1214–1.1240 range broken to the upside in Asia; higher-low chain since 1.1227.
Asia session lifted EURUSD out of Wednesday's 1.1214–1.1240 range, clearing the 1.1240 prior high. The move tagged a 1.1256 session high, then rejected back to a 1.1248 pullback low, right at the 1.1250–1.1260 cap that has held all month. The breakout leg tracks a soft USD on sliding yields, with RSI(14) near 72 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.12475, 1.12404, 1.12269
Resistance: 1.12556, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1240 prior high (50% of the breakout leg) undercuts the breakout read
Return below the 1.1227 asian low marks the move as a false break back into the range
Acceptance above the 1.1256 session high and 1.1260 psych opens a break of the monthly cap
Panetta 12:15 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Asian range break through prior-day high, testing range cap.
Late Asia broke out of the 1.1227–1.1236 Asian range with a near 28-pip, five-bar run. It cleared the 1.1240 prior high from yesterday's NY session and tagged a 1.1255 session high, inside the 1.1250–1.1260 range cap that has capped EUR repeatedly this month. RSI(14) sits near 77 after the impulse against a soft USD backdrop, and the latest bar is holding just under the high.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12356, 1.12269
Resistance: 1.12552, 1.1260
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1260 range cap clears the level that has turned price five times this month
Close back below the 1.1240 prior high would mark the move as a false break
Hold of the 1.1236 asian high keeps the breakout structure intact; a drop through the 1.1227 asian low unwinds the whole Asia leg
Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Overnight range broken higher, prior high cleared, rising lows.
Over the last hour of the Asia session, EURUSD broke above the 1.1227–1.1236 overnight range top and cleared Wednesday's 1.1240 prior high, printing a 1.12435 session high with RSI(14) at 66 and not yet stretched. The soft USD tone frames the move, and price now sits just below the 1.1250 range cap that has rejected EUR rallies five times this month.
Support: 1.12404, 1.12356, 1.12269
Resistance: 1.12435, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1240 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 1.1250 range cap would keep the broader 1.1214–1.1250 range intact
Failure to hold the 1.1227 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline from 1.1215
Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.12314
Tight Asian range inside Wednesday's 1.1214–1.1240 range.
Mid-Asia session, price is holding a tight asian low 1.1227 to asian high 1.1236 band, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 53. Wednesday's 1.1214 swing low held on three tests and the 1.1240 prior high capped the NY rally. A soft USD is offsetting the French-spread drag on EUR, keeping the pair contained.
Support: 1.12269, 1.12242, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12356, 1.12404
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1227 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1224 and the 1.1214 swing low
Break of the asian high at 1.1236 brings the 1.1240 prior high into view; a close above it breaks Wednesday's range
Panetta at 12:15 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range nested inside prior-day 1.1214–1.1240 range.
Mid-Asia session, price is rotating inside a tight 1.1227–1.1236 Asian range, between yesterday's range low near 1.1214 (tested three times in London and NY) and the 1.1240 prior high. RSI(14) near 53 and ATR(14) under 3 pips point to compressed conditions. Soft USD tone is offsetting French fiscal stress on EUR, and price is pinned at EMA20.
Support: 1.12269, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12356, 1.12404
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 asian low exposes the 1.1214 range low
Acceptance above the 1.1236 asian high reopens the 1.1240 prior high, with the 1.1250–60 cap beyond
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ECB's Panetta 12:15 UTC could break the range
Rejection at the 1.1240 day high during late NY hours ran straight to the 1.1215 swing low, and highs have stepped lower since, with the Asian high at 1.1235 now capping. Asia session is easing to a 1.1227 session low with RSI(14) near 44, consistent with the digest's capped, range-bound EUR as French fiscal stress builds.
Support: 1.12269, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12356, 1.12404
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1227 session low opens the 1.1214–1.1215 swing low
M15 close above the 1.1235 asian high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.1240 day high back in play
Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could reset the range during the London-NY transition
24h range 1.1214–1.1240, early Asia testing the Asian low.
Choppy NY session set the day high at 1.1240, then fell back to the 1.1215 area, where the day low near 1.1214 has held three times. Early Asia has slipped from the 1.1236 Asian high to the 1.1228 Asian low, the 38.2% level of the rebound fib from 1.1215. RSI(14) is at 44 and price sits below both EMAs; the soft EUR tone tied to French OAT stress has not produced a range break.
Support: 1.12275, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12356, 1.12404
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1227 Asian low exposes the 61.8% rebound fib near 1.1223, then the 1.1214 day low
Reclaim of the 1.1236 Asian high reopens the 1.1240 day high at the range top
ECB's Panetta (12:15 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours
01:31 UTC
Sideways, two-way intraday range · RSI 48 · price 1.12313
1.1214–1.1240 range; Asia compressing mid-to-upper.
The range floor at 1.1214 held three times through London and NY while the euro stayed heavy on French spread stress, and the 1.1240 range top capped the NY rebound. Asia is compressing in a 6-pip band between the asian low at 1.1229 and the asian high at 1.1236, sitting between the 50% and 78.6% levels of the range fib off the 1.1240–1.1215 drop, with ATR down near 3 pips.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1240
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 1.1229 puts the 1.1214 range floor back in play
Close above the asian high at 1.1236 reopens the 1.1240 range top; a hold above it breaks the range read
London open in ~5h likely ends the Asian compression; ATR near 3 pips is unlikely to hold
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC are later Thursday risks for the range
01:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 1.12314
Tight Asian range inside a 1.1214–1.1240 intraday range.
Early Asia session is compressing in a 1.1229–1.1236 band after yesterday's two-way 1.1214–1.1240 range. Buyers stepped in at the range low three times during London and NY, but the prior high at 1.1240 capped the evening rebound. A soft USD is being offset by French-risk pressure on EUR, leaving RSI(14) near 51 and ATR around 2 pips.
Support: 1.12292, 1.12142
Resistance: 1.12356, 1.12404
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1236 puts the prior high at 1.1240 back in play
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1229 exposes the 50–61.8% of the rebound fib near 1.1226–1.1223
A break of the range low at 1.1214 would end the range read
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ECB's Panetta at 12:15 UTC could shift this read in the London-NY transition
01:01 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 56 · price 1.12325
Day range 1.1214–1.1240, Asia compressed mid-upper.
EURUSD is rotating inside a 1.1214–1.1240 day range. The swing low near 1.1214 held three times across London and NY, and the late-NY push to the day high at 1.1240 faded fast. Asia is compressed in a 7-pip Asian range (asian low 1.1229, asian high 1.1236) with RSI(14) neutral near 56; the euro stays heavy on French OAT stress despite a soft USD.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close outside the 1.1229–1.1236 Asian range sets direction into the London open
Close above the 1.1240 day high exposes the 1.1250 cap that has rejected price repeatedly this week
Failure to hold the 1.1214 swing low after three holds breaks the range toward the 1.1200 zone
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Sideways, intraday range intact · RSI 55 · price 1.12335
1.1214–1.1240 range; tight Asian band in upper half.
Wednesday's London and NY sessions held a 1.1214–1.1240 range. Demand stepped in three times at the range floor near 1.1214 and supply capped the range top twice, as French OAT stress kept EUR heavy while a soft USD failed to press it lower. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.1227–1.1236 band in the upper half of that range, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 1.1227, 1.1214
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1240
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1236 asia high puts the 1.1240 range top back in play; a break there opens the 1.1250–1.1260 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1227 asia low exposes the 1.1214 range floor; loss of that floor shifts focus to the 1.1200 zone
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC during NY hours could break the range
00:16 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 55 · price 1.12337
Day range 1.1214–1.1240; Asia compressing in upper half.
Early Asia session is drifting inside a 1.1229–1.1236 band with rising lows, holding the upper half of the 1.1214–1.1240 day range. That range held through London and NY, where three tests of the 1.1215 range floor drew buyers and the 1.1240 day high capped the late-NY spike. A soft USD is offsetting French-spread pressure on EUR, and ATR(14) has shrunk to under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1240 day high breaks the 24h range to the upside
Loss of the 1.1229 asia low and the rising lows trendline reopens the 1.1215 range floor
London open could expand the compressed Asian range; ECB's Panetta 12:15 GMT and US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thursday could shift the read
00:01 UTC
Sideways, upper half of day range · RSI 55 · price 1.12339
1.1214–1.1240 day range; higher lows off the late-NY dip, Asia compressing.
Asia session is compressing at 1.1229–1.1236 in the upper half of a 1.1214–1.1240 day range. London and NY each tested the triple low near 1.1215 and were rejected, and the late-NY drop from the 1.1240 day high was fully absorbed into higher lows. The broader 1.1250 range cap sits overhead as French OAT stress offsets the soft USD.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1240, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1237 ny high puts the 1.1240 day high back in play
Break of the 1.1229 session low and the higher-lows line reopens the 1.1215 triple low
1.1250 range cap has stalled five daily highs; a rejection there keeps the range read intact
ATR near 2.4 pips reflects thin Asia conditions; range expansion more likely into London open