EUR/USD has trended lower off the weekly open near 1.1428, breaking the 1.1400 pivot in a sharp NY-session selloff yesterday and printing a week low at 1.1364 — matching ING's 1.1380 downside lean despite the hawkish ECB hold. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1370–1.1380 band with recovery capped at 1.1380. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold as the fall stalls, but price remains below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1364, 1.1368
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1410, 1.1428
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1410 would negate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.1364 opens fresh lows
EZ (07:15-08:00 UTC) and US (13:45 UTC) flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has drifted lower all week off the 1.1447 area, with the decisive leg down through the NY session that broke the 1.1400 pivot and printed a 1.1364 week low, matching ING's 1.1380 downside lean. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1370-1.1380 band below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold. The 1.1400 handle that capped the drop is the level to watch overhead.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1425, 1.1447
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1400 pivot invalidates the breakdown read
Break of 1.1364 week low opens further downside
EZ flash PMIs 07:15 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC could shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.13766
Range break lower, consolidating above swing low.
EURUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1400-1.1450 range before a sharp NY-session sell-off Thursday cracked the floor, driving to a 1.13636 swing low as risk-off flows and a rebuilt USD bid took hold. Price now trades below EMA20 and EMA50 and is consolidating in a tight 1.1371-1.1380 band, holding just under ING's flagged 1.1380 pivot. The move aligns with the digest's near-term lean lower toward 1.1380 after the hawkish ECB hold failed to attract fresh conviction.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1355
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1425
What it said to watch
EZ flash PMIs 07:15-08:00 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.1400 pivot invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
EURUSD ranged 1.1400-1.1450 from Monday's open through Wednesday before a sharp NY-session break Thursday drove price to 1.13636, in line with a firmer USD after strong US jobless claims (187K) and ING's 1.1380 lean. Price now bases just above 1.1375 with RSI(14) recovering off its lows, while EMA20 and EMA50 sit overhead after the breakdown. The 1.1380 pivot caps the initial bounce.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1430
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 would negate the downside range break
EZ and US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.13636 opens the path toward 1.1350
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 42 · price 1.13769
Lower highs, break below 1.1400 into consolidation.
EURUSD lost the 1.1400 pivot in a sharp leg lower through the NY session yesterday, printing 1.1364 as an oil-driven USD safe-haven bid weighed on the cross. Price has since consolidated in a tight 1.1371-1.1380 band, holding below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI recovering off oversold toward 42. The 1.1420 weekly cap flagged by the ECB-hawkish story capped every attempt this week and now sits well overhead.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1371
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 pivot would neutralise this week's lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms a fresh lower-low
Eurozone and US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EURUSD spent Monday-Wednesday boxed in the 1.1400-1.1420 range flagged post-ECB, then broke lower through the NY session as the oil-driven USD safe-haven bid asserted itself. The move sheared through 1.1400 to a 1.1364 week low, leaving price below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38 after a shallow bounce. The 1.1400 pivot now caps as former support.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1338
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.14491
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms downside toward the 1.1380 area flagged by ING
Fri Eurozone/German flash PMIs (07:15-08:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1400-1.1435 range for most of the week before a sharp NY-session slide broke the 1.1400 pivot and drove price to a 1.1364 session low. The move tracked a firmer USD on Strait of Hormuz safe-haven flows, leaving EUR unable to capitalise on hawkish-ECB pricing. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with a modest bounce off the low into 1.1378.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1371
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 pivot would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms a lower-low extension
Fri Eurozone/US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD broke down through the 1.1400-1.1420 week range during the NY session, sliding to 1.1364 as the oil-driven USD safe-haven bid overpowered the hawkish-ECB support. Price now stalls sub-1.1380, holding below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold after the impulse. The 1.1400 pivot, prior range floor, is now overhead resistance.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.14000 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower-low
Fri flash PMIs (German 07:15 GMT, Eurozone 08:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
EURUSD spent most of the week capped under the 1.1420 zone before an NY-session slide accelerated through 1.1400, printing a fresh week low at 1.13636. Price trades well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold, and the modest bounce back to 1.1377 is a first pause after the impulse. The move fits the digest's soft-EUR/USD safe-haven read, with 1.1400 now flipping from support to resistance overhead.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14405, 1.14491
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 08:00 GMT and US S&P Global PMIs 13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 1.1400 would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
EURUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1400–1.1450 band before a sharp NY-session breakdown drove price from 1.1435 to a 1.1364 swing low, clearing the 1.1400 floor and reaching toward ING's 1.1380 pivot. The move sat with EUR unable to hold above the 1.1420 cap post-ECB hold while oil-led USD safe-haven demand pressed lower. Price now consolidates just under 1.1380 with RSI(14) lifting off oversold and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1356
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1404, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 08:00 GMT and US S&P Global PMIs 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a fresh lower low
H1 close back above 1.14040 negates the breakdown and reopens the 1.1420 cap
EURUSD spent most of the week caged between 1.1400 and 1.1435 before that floor gave way sharply through the NY session, driven by a returning USD safe-haven bid on US-Iran headlines. The break drove a new low at 1.1364 and left price stretched below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned near 22. Downside momentum now aligns with the digest's 1.1380 pivot read, which has already been cleared.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1425
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 would neutralise the range break and pull price back toward EMA20 at 1.1415
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Eurozone & US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EURUSD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1400–1.1449 range, but a sharp NY-session sell-off broke it down through the 1.1400 psych and drove price to a week low at 1.13636 — ING's 1.1380 downside pivot has now flipped to resistance. RSI(14) sits near 31 with price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and oil-led USD safe-haven demand cited in the digest is capping any EUR recovery. A modest bounce off the low has stalled under 1.1380.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.14272
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.1400 would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms continuation to the 1.1360 round number
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri (Services f/c 49.8) could materially shift this read
EURUSD broke down hard through the NY session, slicing the 1.1400-1.1445 range that held all week and sliding into ING's 1.1380 pivot as the safe-haven USD bid firmed on Iran headlines. Price now trades well below EMA20/50 with RSI depressed near 32, and the last bars are only stabilising, not reversing. Supply that had capped 1.1445 all week has clearly flipped the intraday structure lower.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13636
Resistance: 1.1404, 1.14491
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14040 would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.13636 swing low confirms a further lower low
Fri EZ/US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
EUR/USD spent most of the week boxed between 1.14000 and 1.14300 before a sharp break lower through the NY session, printing 1.13636 as safe-haven USD demand around Iran headlines undercut the pair. Price now sits at 1.13799, well below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) pressed into oversold. The prior range floor at 1.14000 has flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1425, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.14000 negates the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms a lower low and opens 1.1350
EZ and US Flash PMIs Fri 24 Jul could materially shift this read
EURUSD spent most of the week boxed in a 1.1400–1.1445 range before a sharp NY-session selloff broke it, driving price to a fresh low at 1.13636 with RSI(14) into oversold. The break through the 1.1400 handle carried through ING's 1.1380 drift pivot as USD safe-haven demand on Iran/Hormuz headlines overwhelmed the hawkish-ECB-hold support. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with momentum firmly down into the close.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1429, 1.14491
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.14000 would negate the range break
Eurozone/US flash PMIs Fri 07:15/13:45 GMT could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.13636 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
EUR/USD spent most of the week boxed between 1.1400 and 1.1435 despite the in-line ECB hold, then cracked the range floor in the NY session with a sharp leg to 1.1364. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) oversold near 27, and the broken 1.1400 floor flips to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1429
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1400 range floor would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.13636 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Eurozone and US flash PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
EUR/USD spent most of the week boxed between 1.1400 and the 1.1420 cap, then broke sharply lower through the NY session, slicing the 1.1380 ING pivot and printing 1.1364 as the USD safe-haven bid took over. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pushed into oversold near 29, so the move is stretched but structure is a clean run of lower highs and lower lows.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1380 would repair the range break
Failure to hold 1.1364 confirms continuation lower toward 1.1350
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC and US PMIs 13:45 UTC could reset this read
EUR/USD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1400–1.1449 band before a sharp break lower into the NY session, slicing through the 1.1400 floor and ING's 1.1380 pivot to print 1.1364. USD safe-haven bid on the oil/Strait of Hormuz theme carried the impulse and price now sits well below EMA(20)/EMA(50) with RSI(14) oversold near 30. The 1.1404 range floor has flipped to resistance after the breakdown.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.1404, 1.1425
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.13950 broken support would ease the downside break
Failure to hold 1.13636 session low confirms continuation to 1.13500 psych
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD spent most of the week caged between 1.1400 and 1.1445, then broke down sharply through the NY session, shedding roughly 60 pips into 1.1368 as EUR unwound hawkish premium after the ECB hold and Lagarde. Price now sits well below EMA20 near 1.1412 with RSI(14) pushed into oversold. The 1.14042 shelf that held the range floor has flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.14042, 1.1412, 1.14295
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.14042 negates the range break
Failure to hold 1.13677 extends the leg toward 1.1350
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC could reshape this read
EUR/USD spent most of the week boxed between 1.1400 and 1.1449, but the NY session cracked the range floor with a sharp selloff to 1.13677 as Lagarde's tone failed to hold the hawkish premium. Price now sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressing oversold near 29. The 1.1400 shelf that held four times this week has flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.13677, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1429
What it said to watch
H1 reclaim of 1.14000 would neutralise the range break read
Failure to hold 1.13677 confirms continuation of lower-lows
Eurozone flash PMIs Fri 07:15 UTC and US S&P PMIs 13:45 UTC could reshape this read
EURUSD held a 1.1400–1.1450 range from Monday's open through midweek before a sharp NY-session breakdown as Lagarde's presser disappointed a leaning-hawkish market, driving price to a fresh weekly low of 1.13753. The move sliced clean through the range floor and EMA(20), with RSI(14) now oversold near 30. The 1.1420 cap that held two attempts this week is now overhead resistance.
Support: 1.13753, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14357
What it said to watch
Recovery back above 1.1420 range cap would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1380 ING support confirms extension of the lower-low
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD held a 1.1400–1.1445 range from Monday's open through midweek, then broke down through 1.1400 into the NY session as the leaning-hawkish ECB market faded on the hold and Lagarde. Price now prints fresh lows at 1.13753, trading below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold. The prior range floor at 1.1400 flips to resistance while ING's 1.1380 area is being tested.
Support: 1.13753, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.14000 would negate the range-break read
Failure to hold 1.1380 confirms continuation to new lows
Eurozone Consumer Confidence 14:00 GMT and Fri PMIs could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Range breaking to downside · RSI 35 · price 1.13929
Range break below 1.1400 pivot.
EUR/USD held a 1.1400–1.1445 range since Monday's open before breaking below the 1.1400 pivot into the NY session, printing a session low at 1.1383. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 35 after the impulse leg lower; the dovish-ECB unwind read fits the slide. Lower highs have capped bounces this week, leaving the 1.1420 cap and prior high at 1.1435 unbroken.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 pivot negates the downside break
Failure to hold the 1.1383 session low opens the 1.1380 round marker
ECB press-conference language on inflation is the near-term catalyst
EURUSD lost the 1.1400-1.1435 range that held all week, sliding to 1.1393 as stretched EUR longs unwound on the ECB's dovish lean into the Lagarde presser. The break accelerated through the European-to-NY hours with an outsized down bar tagging 1.1383, and RSI(14) is pressing into oversold. Price now sits well below both H1 EMAs after failing repeatedly at the 1.1420 cap.
Support: 1.13832, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1420, 1.14354
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.1400 would negate the breakdown and restore the range read
Sustained trade below 1.1380 confirms the lower-low and opens further downside
Lagarde press conference is the live catalyst and could sharply reprice this move
11:02 UTC
Range, rolling over into ECB · RSI 42 · price 1.14033
Choppy range, testing lower half.
EURUSD has held a tight 1.1396-1.1449 range all week, with the USD-driven grind higher capped repeatedly below 1.1435. Price rejected the 1.1435 day high in the NY session and has since slipped back under EMA20 and EMA50 toward 1.1403, retracing most of the mid-week rebound off 1.1396. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, no divergence.
Support: 1.13962, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1449
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 GMT and Lagarde presser ~12:45 GMT are the near-term catalyst and can break the range either way
Hourly close below 1.13962 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1380
Reclaim of 1.1435 puts the 1.1449 week high back in view
11:01 UTC
Range, rolling over lower · RSI 43 · price 1.14033
Lower high below week high, testing range base.
EUR/USD rolled over from a 1.1435 rejection into the ECB decision, sliding back toward the 1.1400 handle with price now below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The week has held a 1.1397–1.1449 range and this leg is retesting the base after failing to reclaim the week high. RSI(14) has cycled back into the low 40s as the pullback developed, consistent with USD-driven consolidation rather than fresh EUR selling.
Support: 1.1397, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1449
What it said to watch
ECB decision (~1h) and Lagarde press conference could materially shift this read
Hourly close below 1.1397 swing low confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.1435 needed to re-challenge the 1.1449 week high
10:02 UTC
Range-bound, no directional bias · RSI 47 · price 1.14119
Sideways range, capped below 1.1420.
EURUSD has churned in a 1.1400–1.1435 range this week, repeatedly capped below the 1.1420 pivot flagged by desks despite a softer USD. The recovery from the 1.1397 swing low stalled at 1.1435 into the latest session before sliding back to test 1.1410, with RSI(14) cycling near neutral. Price sits below EMA20 with the range still intact ahead of the ECB.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1397, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435, 1.14491
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1420 cap opens the 1.1435 range top then 1.1449 week high
Failure to hold 1.1400 psych exposes the 1.1397 swing low, then 1.1360 major sup
EURUSD has churned in a 1.1400-1.1445 band all week, capped repeatedly near the 1.1420 area while defending the 1.1400 round number, consistent with the broad USD-soft-but-EUR-capped read into today's ECB. Yesterday's NY push to 1.14354 was rejected and price has faded back to the 1.1411 pivot, now hugging both EMAs. RSI(14) sits mid-40s with no divergence — the range is intact.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13969, 1.14066
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354, 1.14491
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC will materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.14200 cap opens the path to the 1.14491 week high
Failure to hold 1.1400 exposes the 1.13969 week low
09:02 UTC
Range-bound, sub-1.1420 cap · RSI 43 · price 1.14104
One-month range, hovering near week lows.
EUR/USD has chopped in a tight 1.1400-1.1420 band all week, unable to press higher as the 1.1420 cap keeps rejecting attempts. A push to 1.14354 in yesterday's NY session was faded straight back through EMA20, and the pair now sits near the range floor into today's ECB decision. RSI(14) has cooled toward the low-40s on that slide.
Support: 1.1406, 1.1397
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1435
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1420 invalidates the range-top rejection read
Loss of 1.1406 exposes the 1.1397 week low
09:02 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 46 · price 1.14104
One-month range, chop near lows.
EUR/USD has chopped inside a 1.1400–1.1420 band for most of the week, unable to hold the broad USD softness as Middle East risk keeps a safe-haven dollar bid. A push into 1.14354 during the prior NY session was rejected and price slid back under the 1.1420 cap into today, sitting just below EMA20 with RSI mid-40s. The week low at 1.13962 marks the base; ECB is the swing factor today.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13962, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14354, 1.14491
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1420 cap opens the path back to the 1.14491 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1400 round number exposes the 1.13962 week low
EUR/USD is grinding higher off Tuesday's 1.1397 week low and has nudged back above the 1.1420 cap into today's ECB hold, with RSI(14) cycling mid-range and price holding above EMA20. The recovery stalled at 1.1435 in the NY session, keeping the broader 1.1397-1.1449 range intact. Two-way risk sits around the 12:15 UTC ECB decision and Lagarde's 12:45 UTC presser.
Support: 1.1397, 1.1380, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1449
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1435 opens the week high at 1.1449
Failure to hold 1.1397 exposes the 1.1380 ing pivot
ECB hold + Lagarde presser in ~4h could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has clawed back from Wednesday's 1.1396 low, with the NY session yesterday driving the recovery to retest the well-worn 1.1420 cap; price now sits at 1.1424 above both EMAs. RSI(14) has cycled back to the low-50s on the bounce. The 1.1420-1.1435 zone has capped repeated attempts all week, keeping the broader 1.1396-1.1449 range intact into today's ECB.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1396, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1449
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1435 opens the path toward the 1.1449 week high
Failure to hold 1.1420 puts the 1.1380 ing pivot back in focus
EURUSD has churned in a tight low-1.14 band all week, repeatedly capped near 1.1420 and holding above the 1.1396 week low. Price recovered off that base into the 1.1435 day high yesterday before easing back to 1.1425, sitting just above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI mid-range. Consolidation ahead of today's ECB hold and Lagarde presser, which is the swing factor.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13962, 1.1380
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14355, 1.1445
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1420 cap opens the path toward 1.1445 week high
Failure to hold 1.1400 exposes the 1.1396 week low and 1.1380 zone
EUR/USD churned in a tight low-1.14 band all week, repeatedly capped below 1.1420 near five-week lows as Iran-driven USD demand offset resilient ZEW data. Price pushed through the 1.1420 cap into the NY session to tag 1.1435 before easing to 1.1425, with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The week low at 1.1397 marks the base of the recent recovery.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.13969
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.1465
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC — key catalyst that could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1420 cap flip reopens 1.1400 and the 1.1397 week low
H1 close above 1.14354 session high opens the path toward 1.1465
Higher lows since Tuesday's base, reclaiming range.
EURUSD has ground higher off Tuesday's 1.1397 base, carving a series of higher lows and reclaiming the 1.1420 cap that had held the pair back all week. Price now sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling into the low-60s, testing this-week highs near 1.1435. The move fits a resilient EUR pinned in the low-1.14s ahead of the ECB, with prior upside limited by safe-haven USD demand.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1410, 1.1397
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1450
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC is the week's key catalyst and can reset this read
H1 close back below 1.1420 puts the reclaimed cap back overhead and revives the drift toward 1.1397
Sustained trade above 1.1435 opens the path to the 1.1450 weekly-open zone
06:01 UTC
Recovery off week low, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.14308
Higher lows since week low, breaking the 1.1420 cap.
EUR/USD based around 1.1397-1.1405 midweek then ground higher through the NY session, pushing above the 1.1420 cap that had held the pair all week. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling into the low 60s on the recovery. The 1.1420 zone that capped repeatedly now sits as the first pivot beneath current price ahead of today's ECB.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1405, 1.13969
Resistance: 1.14354, 1.14465
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC is the week's key catalyst and can override this structure
Hourly close back below 1.1420 reopens the drift toward 1.1405 and the 1.13969 week low
Close above 1.14354 session high opens the path to the 1.14465 week high
05:02 UTC
Recovering off week low, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.14328
Higher lows since week low, reclaiming range.
EURUSD based twice near the 1.1397 week low before grinding higher through the NY session, printing higher lows and reclaiming EMA20/EMA50. The 1.1420 cap that held earlier in the week has now given way, with price pressing toward the 1.1444 prior high. RSI has cycled up to the low-60s as the recovery extends.
Support: 1.1415, 1.1397, 1.1405
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.1452
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde 12:45 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
A close above 1.1444 prior high opens the path toward the 1.1452 week high
Failure to hold the higher lows and a break back below 1.1415 EMA20 stalls the recovery
05:02 UTC
Recovery off week low, momentum building · RSI 61 · price 1.14328
Higher lows since Wed low, clearing range cap.
EURUSD carved a double bottom near 1.1397 midweek and has ground higher into the current session, clearing the 1.1420 cap that repeatedly stalled attempts earlier in the week. RSI(14) has cycled up through 60 with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50, and the low-1.14s consolidation is now resolving upward toward the week high at 1.1452. Hawkish ECB expectations underpinned the floor while safe-haven USD demand had kept the pair boxed.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1397, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1452, 1.1500
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + Lagarde 12:45 UTC is the week's main catalyst and could reset this read
Failure to hold the 1.1420 prior cap reopens the 1.1397 week low
Close above 1.1452 week high extends the recovery toward 1.1500 psych
04:02 UTC
Recovering off week low, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.14286
Higher lows carved since week low, pressing back above the 1.1420 cap.
EUR/USD spent most of the week churning in a tight low-1.14 band before basing at the 1.13970 week low and grinding out higher lows through the Asian session. Price has now cleared the 1.1420 cap that repeatedly held this week, with RSI(14) lifting toward the low-60s and price holding above EMA20 near 1.14110. The 1.14450 prior high is the next area of interest overhead.
Support: 1.1411, 1.1400, 1.1397
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.1452
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC plus presser at 12:45 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can override this structure
H1 close above 1.14450 prior high extends the recovery toward the 1.14520 week high
Failure to hold the 1.14000 pivot re-exposes the 1.13970 week low
EUR/USD is recovering off Wednesday's 1.1397 week low, printing higher lows through the NY session and reclaiming the 1.1420 cap that held all week. RSI(14) has cycled up through 60 with price now sitting above EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.14301 day high is the immediate ceiling ahead of the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.13969
Resistance: 1.14301, 1.14516
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14301 opens the 1.14516 week high
Loss of the 1.1420 pivot re-exposes 1.1400 and the week low
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and presser 12:45 UTC are the dominant catalysts
03:02 UTC
Recovery off week low, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.14276
Higher lows since week low, breaking consolidation top.
EUR/USD carved out a base near 1.1397 (this week's low) and has ground higher, breaking the 1.1400–1.1417 consolidation with a late push to 1.1428 that pulled RSI(14) toward the low-60s. Price now sits above EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time since the mid-week slide, with the 1.1445 swing high the next structural marker. Moves stay tied to safe-haven USD flows and today's ECB decision, which caps the follow-through.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1397
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.14519
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1445 opens the week high at 1.1452
Failure to hold 1.1410 range floor re-exposes the 1.1397 week low
03:01 UTC
Recovery off week low, momentum building · RSI 62 · price 1.14276
Higher lows since Wed base, breaking prior cap.
EUR/USD carved a rounded base at the 1.13962 week low on Wednesday and has ground higher on rising lows since, clearing the sticky 1.1420 cap in the latest bars to print a session high near 1.14290. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) around 62, the firmest of the week. Moves stay hostage to today's ECB decision — the euro has been pinned in the low-1.14s ahead of it.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1411, 1.13962
Resistance: 1.1429, 1.1444
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC + press conference 12:45 UTC is the swing factor for this read
Sustained hold above the 1.1420 cap keeps the recovery intact; a close back below reinstates the range
Loss of 1.13962 week low reopens downside toward 1.1380
Consolidation above week low after impulsive decline.
EUR/USD spent the week grinding lower in the low-1.14s, with the dominant leg down into the 1.1397 week low during Wednesday's NY session as a firm USD safe-haven bid capped Euro upside. Price has since based and recovered back onto its H1 EMA(20), but the 1.1420 cap flagged repeatedly this week has kept a lid on rebounds. RSI(14) is cycling near the midline as the range tightens ahead of the ECB.
Support: 1.1407, 1.1397
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1445
What it said to watch
ECB decision 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has consolidated tightly in the low-1.14s all week, capped repeatedly below the 1.1420 area as a US-Iran safe-haven USD bid offset hawkish-ECB support. Price carved out a week low at 1.13962 midweek and has since ground back up through EMA20 to 1.1417, with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s. The 1.1420 cap remains the pivotal near-term ceiling into today's ECB decision.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.13962
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14519
What it said to watch
ECB decision today 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1420 opens the path toward the 1.14519 week high
Failure to hold 1.1400 psych exposes the 1.13962 week low
Higher-lows since 1.1396 base, capped below 1.1420.
EURUSD carved a week low near 1.1396 mid-window then clawed back through the NY session, printing higher-lows and now pressing the 1.1420 cap that has held the range top all week. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling mid-range around 57, consistent with a grind rather than an impulse. Direction stays boxed in the low-1.14s as safe-haven USD demand offsets hawkish ECB pricing.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13962, 1.1406
Resistance: 1.1421, 1.14282, 1.1444
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1420 cap opens the path toward 1.1465
Loss of the 1.1400 pivot re-exposes the 1.1396 week low
ECB decision 12:15 UTC / Lagarde 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery off weekly low into consolidation below cap.
EURUSD drifted from Monday's ~1.1445 open down to a weekly low near 1.1397 before basing and grinding back to 1.1418, now reclaiming EMA(20). Higher lows have formed off the low but 1.1420 has capped the week and RSI(14) sits mid-range around 56, reflecting the boxed low-1.14s the context digest describes. Price is pinned just under the cap into the ECB decision.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1400, 1.1397
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1445
What it said to watch
ECB decision at 12:15 UTC and Lagarde presser 12:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1420 range cap opens the path toward 1.1445
Failure to hold 1.1400 re-exposes the weekly low at 1.1397
00:02 UTC
Downtrend flattening into range · RSI 52 · price 1.14123
Low-1.14s consolidation off five-week low.
EUR/USD drifted lower through the week from the 1.1447 weekly open to a five-week low near 1.13962, with safe-haven USD demand offsetting hawkish ECB pricing. Price has since stabilised in the low-1.14s, capped below the 1.1420 range cap while holding the 1.1400 psych area. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-range as the H1 downtrend flattens into consolidation just above EMA20.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13962
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.14468
What it said to watch
ECB decision today 12:15 UTC and Lagarde press conf could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1420 range cap opens the path back toward the 1.1447 weekly open
Failure to hold 1.1400 psych puts the 1.13962 five-week low back in play
00:02 UTC
Downtrend fading into consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.14123
Lower highs into a low-1.14s base.
EUR/USD has ground lower all week off Monday's 1.1449 area, printing a five-week low near 1.13962 during the NY session before a modest recovery back to the EMA(20). Lower highs cap the tape below 1.1420 and RSI(14) is mid-range around 52, reflecting the balance between hawkish ECB pricing and the war-driven safe-haven USD bid. Price is pinned in the low-1.14s ahead of Thursday's ECB decision.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13962
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1449
What it said to watch
ECB decision Thu 12:15 UTC and Lagarde press conf 12:45 UTC is the dominant near-term driver
H1 close above 1.1420 negates the lower-high cap and opens the 1.1449 week high
Failure to hold 1.1400 psych exposes the 1.13962 week low