Lower highs into 13-month low, basing near 1.1325.
EURUSD slid through June to a 13-month low at 1.1324 before buyers stepped in twice around that level, carving a double bottom and a relief bounce back above 1.1400 as the USD eased and oil slid. The multi-week downtrend remains intact below the EMA50 and the descending lower-highs line, but price has reclaimed the EMA20 and is pressing the 1.1420 cap. ATR(14) near 27 pips reflects steady, not explosive, range as the pair consolidates pending CPI catalysts.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1420
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside read
Failure to hold 1.1325 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1280
ECB Lagarde Jun 29 and German HICP Jun 29 are the next directional catalysts
Lower highs / lower lows, bouncing off 13-month low.
Downtrend intact since the early-month break from 1.1672, with price sliding to a 13-month low at 1.1324 before a relief bounce back above 1.1400 on a softer USD and falling crude. A double tap of 1.1324/1.1325 has held twice, and price is now back above the EMA20 but capped beneath the EMA50 near 1.1450. ATR(14) near 45 pips shows the move down is still active, not compressing.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1420 invalidates the near-term downside read
Failure to hold 1.1325 confirms a lower-low, opening 1.1280
ECB Lagarde (Jun 29) and German HICP could materially shift this read
EURUSD remains in a multi-week downtrend off the 1.1685 area, but a double bottom near 1.1325 has produced a corrective bounce, with price reclaiming the EMA20 while still capped below the EMA50. The recovery follows oversold conditions after a four-day slide, with a firm USD on in-line core PCE offset by oil-driven dovish ECB repricing. The 1.1420 region is the structural cap — it has aligned with the recent lower-high sequence.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1420
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1420 invalidates the downside structure
Failure to hold 1.1325 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1280
ECB Lagarde (Mon 17:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, recovering off range low.
EUR/USD has sold off through June from 1.1670 to a 13-month low at 1.1324, a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence driven by a firm dollar on sticky US PCE and pared ECB hike bets. Price is now grinding off the low with a bounce back toward 1.1400, holding above the EMA20 but still capped under the EMA50. The 1.1420 area is the structural cap — it has repeatedly absorbed rallies during the decline.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1420
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1420 invalidates the bearish structure and opens 1.1470
Failure to hold 1.1324 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1280
Monday Lagarde speech and Eurozone CPI Tue could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, oversold bounce off 13-month low.
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, printing a 13-month low at 1.1324 before an oversold bounce now testing the 1.1385 cap. The slide tracks the hawkish-Fed/firm-PCE USD bid that pinned the pair lower through the week, with price holding below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) compression off the early-week expansion shows the leg lower losing steam, but structure stays bearish while 1.1385 holds.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1325 opens the path toward 1.1280
A break and hold above 1.1385 cap, then 1.1400, would challenge the lower-high sequence
Lagarde (Mon 17:30 UTC) and German HICP/EZ CPI early next week could shift the read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 47 · price 1.13854
Lower highs / lower lows, rebound from 13-mo low.
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend that drove price to a 13-month low at 1.1325 amid a firm-dollar, hawkish-Fed backdrop after sticky US PCE. The current bounce has lifted price back to the 1.1385 cap, reclaiming the EMA20 but still trading below the descending EMA50. ATR around 51 pips shows steady, not compressing, range as the recovery tests overhead supply.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1385 cap opens the path back toward the 1.1400 pivot
Daily close below 1.1325 13-mo low confirms continuation toward 1.1280
ECB Lagarde Mon 17:30 UTC and German HICP could materially shift this read
EURUSD remains in a clear H4 downtrend, having ground to a 13-month low at 1.1325 on broad USD strength and a hawkish-Fed repricing, with in-line US PCE failing to extend the move. Price is now consolidating in a 1.1325-1.1388 band, with twin lows near 1.1325-1.1338 forming a double-bottom base while the EMA20 and EMA50 cap from above. ATR is steady, leaving the pair compressed between the 13-month low and the range top.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1388
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1325 confirms a fresh lower-low, opening 1.1280
Reclaim of 1.1388 range top would neutralise the consolidation read
German HICP (Jun 29) / Eurozone CPI (Jun 30) could break the range
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near range lows.
Downtrend intact on H4 — successive lower highs and lower lows carried EUR/USD from 1.165 to a 13-month low at 1.1325. Price is now consolidating in a 1.1330-1.1385 band as the USD softens despite a firm in-line core PCE print, with the bounce stalling under the prior swing structure. ATR(14) has eased to a moderate ~34 pips, reflecting compression after the leg down.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1400
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1325 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens 1.1280
Reclaim of 1.1385 range top would ease downside pressure toward 1.1400
German HICP (Jun 29) / Eurozone CPI (Jun 30) could shift this read
Downtrend intact on H4 — a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since early month dragged EUR to a 13-month low at 1.1324 on USD strength after the hawkish Fed repricing, where demand stepped in twice to form a double bottom. Price now consolidates below the 1.1370 cap, with the bounce stalling at the 1.1388 swing high and holding beneath the descending lower-highs line. ATR(14) has eased off its mid-week expansion as the basing develops.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1388, 1.1411
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1324 confirms a fresh lower-low, opening 1.1280
Reclaim of 1.1411 would break the lower-highs structure
UoM Michigan inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) and weekend ECB speakers could shift this read
EURUSD has trended lower for three weeks into a 13-month low at 1.1325, driven by broad USD strength on hawkish-Fed repricing. Two tests of 1.1324/1.1325 have held and price has bounced to 1.1363, forming a tentative double bottom while still under a descending sequence of lower highs. ATR(14) near 25 pips marks moderate range with price capped beneath EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1385, 1.1411
What it said to watch
Daily close below 1.1325 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1280
Reclaim above 1.1411 would invalidate the lower-high structure