21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce underway · RSI 47 · price 1.13814
Lower highs / lower lows, basing near 13-month low.
Sustained H4 downtrend printed a 13-month low at 1.1325 as the hot US PCE print (4.1% YoY) revived hawkish-Fed pricing and lifted the dollar. Price has since bounced and is consolidating in the 1.1345-1.1434 band, with ATR(14) compressing — momentum off the low has stalled below the 1.1420 pivot. Price is back above EMA20 but capped under the falling EMA50, keeping the broader structure heavy.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1434, 1.1500
What it said to watch
- H4 close below 1.1325 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1280
- Reclaim of 1.1420 invalidates the bearish structure, exposes 1.1500
- Eurozone flash CPI Tue is the key catalyst for ECB-hike repricing