21:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce · RSI 37 · price 1.13814
Lower highs, lower lows.
Established downtrend since the mid-April rejection near 1.1850, with a clean chain of lower highs and lower lows dragging price to a 13-month low at 1.1324 this week. Price sits below a falling EMA(50), and the late-week bounce off 1.1324 — supported by a hawkish-Fed read after US PCE hit 4.1% — has so far only stabilised the pair in the 1.1340-1.1420 band. RSI near 37 reflects oversold pressure without a confirmed turn.
Support: 1.13242, 1.1280
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1500
What it said to watch
- Daily close below 1.1325 confirms continuation, opening 1.1280
- Daily close above 1.1420 invalidates the bearish read, exposing 1.1500
- German HICP Mon and Eurozone flash CPI Tue are the ECB-repricing catalysts that could shift this read