EUR/USD slid from Monday's 1.1427 open to a 13-month low near 1.1325 mid-week as the hot US PCE print (4.1%) firmed the dollar, then recovered above 1.1400 with a Thursday spike to 1.1433 before sellers capped it. Price has since drifted back to the 1.1380 area, pinned just under EMA(20) but holding above EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing back through the mid-line. The week-pivot at 1.1410 has rejected the latest push, leaving the pair consolidating its recovery.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1433
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1375 confirms a lower-low and reopens the 1.1325 13-mo low
Reclaim of the 1.1410 week pivot puts the 1.1433 week high back in play
German HICP Mon and Lagarde Mon 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Eurozone flash CPI Tue is the week's key catalyst for the read
Pullback into 50% fib after bounce from 13-mo low.
EURUSD based out at the 1.1325 13-month low midweek and rallied to a 1.14336 week high during the NY session before fading. Price has since retraced to the 50% fib near 1.1379, slipping below EMA20 but holding above EMA50; RSI(14) has cooled back toward 45. The bounce came as oil-led risk sentiment and a softer dollar offset the hawkish PCE read, but the 1.1420 pivot has capped recovery attempts.
Support: 1.1379, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1420, 1.14336
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1392 EMA20 would reassert the recovery toward the 1.1420 pivot
Loss of the 1.1379 50% fib exposes the 1.1325 13-month low
German HICP Mon and Lagarde speech could materially shift this read on the new week's open
EUR slid to a 13-month low near 1.1324 early in the window then recovered, with a sharp NY-session push Friday spiking to 1.1434 before fading back below EMA(20) into 1.1381 — the move helped by a softer USD after in-line PCE. RSI(14) has rolled back to the mid-40s as the rally stalled, leaving price pinned between EMA50 support near 1.1370 and the EMA20/1.1392 pivot above. Two-way consolidation persists after the week's failed extension.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1370, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1426, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1392 reclaims EMA20 and reopens 1.1426/1.1434
Failure to hold 1.1375 confirms a lower-low toward 1.1324
German HICP Mon and Eurozone flash CPI Tue are the key catalysts for this read