Price spent most of the window ranging 1.1364-1.1475 before losing the 1.1400 cap and printing fresh lows toward 1.1364, with USD firm on oil-driven hawkish Fed repricing. Lower highs since the 1.1482 peak and a decisive break of the range floor define a rolling-over structure, with EMA20 and EMA50 now capping overhead. ATR is contained, so the move down has been grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.1364, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1435, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 1.1400 invalidates the range-break read
Break below 1.1364 opens the path to the 1.1324 13-mo low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
After weeks capped below the 1.1400 barrier, EUR/USD broke the multi-day range and is now grinding fresh lows near 1.1364, with price trading beneath both EMA20 and EMA50. The move fits the digest read of a firm dollar into next week's FOMC and energy terms-of-trade weighing on EUR despite hawkish ECB pricing. Lower highs off the 1.1482 swing peak define the rollover.
Support: 1.13636, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14354, 1.1482
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
H4 close back above 1.1400 cap would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.1364 swing low opens the path toward the 1.1324 13-mo low