Lower-highs since 1.1787, basing around 1.1590-1.1650.
Price has carved out a sequence of lower-highs from 1.1787 down to 1.1660 over the last two weeks, with the May 14 low at 1.15823 acting as the floor. The last six sessions have compressed into a 1.1590-1.1660 range as ATR contracts, with the recent push to 1.16610 stalling under the prior swing high. Musalem's hawkish 'no easing bias' line has helped cap the bounce.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15823, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1661, 1.16875, 1.17265
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.16610 opens path back to the 1.16875 swing high and ema50 at 1.17265
Break of 1.15823 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
Sustained holding of the 1.1600 range low with rising RSI would signal base-building
17:00 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 51 · price 1.16488
Lower highs since 1.1787, basing above 1.1586.
Price has been carving lower highs from 1.1787 through 1.1660, but the 1.1586 area has now held twice forming a double bottom base. EMA20 has been reclaimed while EMA50 still caps near 1.1728, leaving the pair pinned inside a 1.1586–1.1661 range with ATR compressing. A bullish RSI divergence on the latest swing low hints at fading downside momentum, though structural trend remains down until the prior pivot at 1.1688 gives way.
Support: 1.1622, 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1661, 1.1688, 1.1728
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1661 swing high opens path back to the 1.1728 ema50
Loss of 1.1586 range low confirms continuation toward the 1.1576 weekly low
Headline risk from US/Iran MOU and Fed Musalem hike rhetoric could break the range either way
13:00 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 43 · price 1.16171
Lower highs, lower lows since mid-window peak.
Price has traced a clean lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 1.17965 peak, with sellers capping every bounce below the descending EMA20. The last week shows base-building around 1.1590-1.1620 — repeated tests of the swing low at 1.15860 are holding, and RSI has carved a mild bullish divergence into that level. Hot US durable goods overshadowed an in-line core PCE, keeping USD bid into month-end and pinning EUR near the lows.
Support: 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1649, 1.1687, 1.1725
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.16490 recent high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.15860 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
Failure at the descending trendline keeps the structure capped
09:00 UTC
Downtrend, base forming · RSI 42 · price 1.16122
Lower-highs since 1.1786 peak, basing near 1.1590-1.1620.
Sequence of lower-highs from 1.1786 through 1.1660 keeps the H4 downtrend intact, with price now compressing between the recent high at 1.1648 and the swing low at 1.1586. ATR(14) has contracted versus the prior leg, indicating consolidation rather than fresh impulse, and the latest bar's rejection from 1.1620 back through 1.1590 shows supply still capping rallies into the EMA50. The risk-off bid in USD after US-Iran strike headlines is the immediate catalyst weighing on the pair.
Support: 1.1586, 1.1576, 1.1617
Resistance: 1.1648, 1.1660, 1.1786
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1586 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
H4 close above 1.1660 ema50 invalidates the lower-high structure
Further Middle East escalation could extend the USD bid and pressure the wk low
05:00 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 36 · price 1.15882
Lower highs, lower lows since 1.1787.
Rolling over since the 1.1787 swing high earlier in the window, with lower highs printing at 1.1660 and 1.1652 against a series of lower lows. The latest H4 broke the 1.1593-1.1576 base on the back of US-Iran Hormuz headlines and a firmer dollar, now probing the 1.1583 swing low. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI compressed into the mid-30s but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.15834, 1.1576, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1649, 1.1675, 1.1787
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.1583 swing low extends the downtrend toward 1.1550 psych
Reclaim of 1.1649 prior high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Geopolitical de-escalation in the Gulf could unwind the USD bid feeding this leg
Price has been carving a sequence of lower highs since the 1.1787 peak two weeks ago, with the most recent leg down stalling above 1.1580 swing low. The last week has compressed into a tight 1.1610–1.1660 range below both EMAs, with rejection near 1.1660 capping each attempt higher. Geopolitical risk-off flows after fresh US strikes on Iran are reinforcing the dollar bid into a softer euro.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1582, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1649, 1.1661, 1.1700
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1580 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
H4 close above 1.1661 prior high opens the path back to the 1.1700 supply
Fed commentary (Kashkari, Jefferson) and Iran headlines could materially shift this read