Three-week sequence of lower-highs from the 1.1787 peak has pressed price into a base just above 1.1580, where buyers stepped in twice to form a double bottom. The latest H4 has cleared the EMA20 with a 45-pip range, lifting RSI off oversold and putting the EMA50 cluster near 1.1720 in focus. Move was helped by USD softness after Trump's naval-blockade lift comments around US-Iran de-escalation.
Support: 1.1624, 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1685, 1.1720, 1.17875
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1720 ema50 opens path back to 1.1787 prior high
Rejection at 1.1685 session high with close back under 1.1624 pivot revives the downtrend read
Loss of 1.1586 swing low confirms a lower-low and invalidates the double bottom
Headline risk around US-Iran developments could materially shift this read
Lower highs into 1.1590 base, recovery stalling at 1.1660.
EURUSD has been carving lower highs since the 1.1797 swing top three weeks ago, with the latest leg basing around 1.1586 and rebounding into 1.1661 before stalling. Soft German CPI today (2.6% vs 2.8% expected) capped the bounce, leaving price back below both EMAs and inside a tightening 1.1586–1.1661 range. ATR(14) sits near 21 pips on H4, a clear compression from the early-month volatility, suggesting a directional resolution is building.
Support: 1.16264, 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1661, 1.16875, 1.17252
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1661 swing high reopens the prior high at 1.1688
Loss of the 1.1586 swing low confirms continuation of the downtrend
Sustained reclaim of EMA20/EMA50 would neutralise the lower-high structure
09:00 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base near 1.1600 · RSI 45 · price 1.16357
Lower-highs since 1.1796, basing range 1.1586-1.1660.
Price has carved a sequence of lower-highs from 1.1796 into a tight basing range between 1.1586 and 1.1660 over the past week. ATR is compressing under both the EMA20 and EMA50, with a mild bullish RSI divergence into the 1.1586 swing low suggesting downside momentum is fading even as price remains capped under the ema50. Macro tone (soft German CPI prints, US-Iran MOU optimism dulling the dollar) is consistent with the current balance rather than resolving it.
Support: 1.1586, 1.1617, 1.1530
Resistance: 1.1660, 1.1717, 1.1796
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1660 range cap reopens 1.1717 ema50 and the 1.1796 lower high
H4 close below 1.1586 swing low confirms continuation toward the 1.1530 extension
German national CPI release later today could shift the read
05:00 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 45 · price 1.1638
Lower highs from 1.1787, basing around 1.1590-1.1650.
Sequence of lower highs from the 1.1787 swing has defined the H4 downtrend over the past two weeks, with price now basing in a 1.1586-1.1661 range. Yesterday's rejection from 1.1661 — the recent high — has pulled price back toward range mid, with EMA20 and EMA50 both stacked above, capping rallies near 1.1735. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 19 pips, consistent with the tightening range and a pending directional resolution.
Support: 1.1586, 1.1517
Resistance: 1.1661, 1.1735, 1.1787
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1661 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path back to the ema50 near 1.1735
Break of 1.1586 swing low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1517 range floor
Unresolved US-Iran ceasefire headlines could materially shift this read on the next bar
Sequence of lower-highs from 1.1798 down to 1.1661 keeps the H4 read corrective, with price now basing in a 1.1586–1.1661 range over the last two weeks. The recent swing low at 1.1586 held on retest and produced a mild bullish RSI divergence, but price remains capped under both EMA20 and EMA50 near 1.1700–1.1735. ATR(14) at ~18 pips is compressed, consistent with a coiling phase ahead of the next directional move.
Support: 1.1617, 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1661, 1.1700, 1.1735
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1661 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.1586 range low reopens the May low at 1.1576
Reclaim of 1.1700 psych and EMA50 needed to neutralise the downtrend
Tokyo CPI softness and BoJ repricing skewing USD flow into Asia open