19:01 UTC
Multi-quarter uptrend correcting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.13947
Lower highs since Jan 2026 peak, price below EMA50.
The dominant regime was a multi-quarter uptrend off the early-2025 lows near 1.0210 that peaked at 1.2083 in late January 2026; since then price has rolled over into a correction and now trades below the W1 EMA(50). The retracement has carried back to the 1.14 area, roughly the 38.2% level of the entire 2025 rally, with a sequence of lower highs capping each bounce. Soft post-Fed USD keeps the backdrop mildly constructive for EUR, but the weekly structure has shifted from trend to correction.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.2083
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below 1.1300 round number confirms a deeper lower low
- Reclaim of 1.1500 psych needed to stall the correction
- US NFP / ISM week is the dominant external swing risk for this pair