21:02 UTC
Downtrend week, post-NFP rebound · RSI 58 · price 1.32369
Lower high at 1.3311, double bottom at 1.3181, rebound stalling near 50% retrace.
Wednesday's London-session spike to the 1.3311 week high on the UK GDP beat failed. Thursday's London-open breakdown from 1.3266 then extended into a 1.3181 week low as the gilt and global bond rout weighed on sterling. Friday's NFP miss resolved the 1.3181 double bottom higher: the NY session drove the pair through the 1.3221 Friday range top to a 1.3256 NFP high, and the pullback found a higher low at 1.3224 near EMA(20). Price is now holding just under the 50% retracement of the 1.3311–1.3181 drop at 1.3246, with RSI(14) near 58 and no longer stretched.
Support: 1.32235, 1.3200, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32557, 1.32662, 1.33109
What it said to watch
- H1 close above the 1.3256 nfp high and the 1.3266 breakdown point clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the path to the 1.3311 week high
- Failure of the 1.3224 higher low and the Friday higher-lows trendline puts the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3181 week low back in focus
- US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7): a clear beat could rebuild Fed hike odds and unwind the post-NFP rebound
- BoE Mann Tue 08:40 UTC and gilt yields: a renewed 30y gilt selloff above 6% would pressure the 1.3181 week low