Lower highs pressing into a flat 1.3181–1.3190 floor.
Wednesday's London push to the 1.3311 wed high reversed. A London-NY selloff on Thursday reached the 1.3181 week low as the USD bid built, and Friday's NFP miss lifted price only to a 1.3256 nfp high near the 50–61.8% retracement of the Wed-Thu drop before fading. On Monday, Asia-session selling and an early-NY dip both found demand at the 1.3190 monday low, despite DXY printing annual highs on French bond stress and UK PMI beats offering only limited lift. London's rebound stalled just under the 1.3239 weekly open, leaving price flat on the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.3220 with RSI(14) at 50.
Support: 1.3220, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3239 weekly open and the lower-highs line would break the sequence of lower highs and bring the 1.3256 nfp high back into view
Failure to hold the range floor at 1.3190–1.3181 (monday low / week low) opens the 1.3140 YTD low flagged in the digest
BoE Mann speech Tue 08:40 UTC is the hawkish-tone test; a clear hike signal could lift price off the range floor
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Repeated H1 closes below the EMA(20) at 1.3220 would tilt the range back toward its floor
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 peak; 1.3180-1.3256 range since Thursday.
The sell-off from Wednesday's 1.3311 week high bottomed at the 1.3181 week low on Thursday. Friday's soft NFP spike to 1.3256 faded, and Monday's France-driven USD bid produced twin dips to the 1.3190 monday low in Asia and NY hours, a small double bottom with demand stepping in both times. Price is now pinned just above the EMA(20) near 1.3219 with RSI(14) flat around 50, while a lower-highs line from Friday's nfp high caps rebounds below the 1.3239 weekly open.
Support: 1.3219, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3239 weekly open and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 1.3256 nfp high
Break of the 1.3190 monday low and 1.3181 week low invalidates the double bottom and extends the range floor lower
BoE Mann Tue 08:40 UTC: explicit hike backing could test the 1.3256 nfp high; no new signal leaves the 1.3180 range floor in focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the EMA(20) near 1.3219 on a closing basis returns price to the lower half of the range
Contracting range 1.3181–1.3256: lower highs, flat-to-higher lows.
Wednesday's London-open rally on the UK GDP beat topped at the 1.3311 wed high. The 'wed-thu drop' then unwound it in Thursday's NY session to the 1.3181 thu low. Since then the pair has compressed into a range. Friday's NFP spike stalled at 1.3256, the nfp high, just under the 61.8% retrace. Monday's London push faded at the 1.3239 weekly open, extending the lower-highs sequence. The France-driven USD bid pushed Monday's NY dip on ISM back to the 1.3190 monday low, which held, making a slightly higher low. Price now sits at 1.3222 on the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster with RSI(14) flat near 52, so momentum is neutral inside the squeeze.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3181 thu low breaks the higher-lows line and confirms a lower-low, with the 1.3140 YTD low next
Close above the 1.3239 weekly open breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.3256 nfp high is the range top
BoE Mann Tue 08:40 UTC is the hawkish-tone test that could lift GBP off the monday low area
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue could materially shift this read
38.2% of the wed-thu drop near 1.3230 has capped closes since Monday's London session
Compression: lower highs from 1.3256, higher lows above 1.3181.
Wednesday's UK GDP-led spike to the 1.3311 week high was fully unwound in Thursday's London selloff to the 1.3181 week low. Since then the pair has compressed between that low and a lower-high trendline running from the 1.3256 nfp high to the 1.3239 weekly open, capped below the fib 50% of the Wed–Thu drop as French-driven USD demand offsets the UK PMI beats. Monday's Asia and NY dips both found demand at the 1.3190 monday low, and price now sits just under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3181 week low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3140 ytd low
H1 close above the 1.3239 weekly open and the lower-high trendline opens a retest of the 1.3256 nfp high and the fib 61.8% near 1.3261
BoE Mann Tue 08:40 UTC and Fed Williams/Bowman Tue could break the compression
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
19:02 UTC
Sideways within a broader downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 1.32175
Lower highs from 1.3311; 1.3181-1.3190 lows holding as a base.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3180-1.3256 range since Thursday's slide from the 1.3311 Wednesday peak. Friday's NFP-driven bounce stalled at the 1.3256 nfp high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that drop, and Monday has printed lower highs from the 1.3250 monday high. Demand has stepped in twice near the 1.3190 monday low, first in the Asia session and again into the NY open as France-driven USD strength pushed DXY to annual highs. Price now sits flat at EMA(20), below the 1.3239 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3190 monday low exposes the 1.3181 prior low and then the 1.3140 ytd low
Close above the 1.3239 weekly open and the monday lower-highs trendline reopens the 1.3250 monday high and the 1.3256 nfp high
BoE Mann Tue 08:40 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue could break the range; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 peak. Friday's NFP bounce stalled at the 1.3256 nfp high, just past the 50% retracement of the 1.3311-1.3181 drop, and Monday's London rally met rejection at the 1.3239 weekly open. Both the Asia session and early NY hours on Monday dipped to the 1.3190 monday low as French bond stress lifted the dollar despite the UK PMI beat, with demand stepping in above Thursday's 1.3181 4-week low. Price sits just under ema20 near 1.3222 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3190 monday low exposes the 1.3181 4-week low and the 1.3140 YTD low
H1 close above the 1.3239 weekly open breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 1.3256 nfp high back in play
Repeated failure to reclaim ema20 near 1.3222 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
BoE Mann (Tue 08:40 UTC) and Fed Williams/Bowman (Tue) could shift the read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
17:02 UTC
Sideways to soft, sub-EMA after failed rally · RSI 47 · price 1.32145
Range 1.3181–1.3256 with lower highs pressing a flat floor.
Wednesday's London rally to 1.3311 after the UK GDP beat fully unwound from Thursday's London open into a 1.3181 prior wk low. Rebounds since have stalled near the 50% of that Wed-Thu drop: the NFP miss lifted price only to the 1.3256 nfp high, and Monday's Asia and NY-open selloffs on the DXY annual high both found demand at the 1.3190 monday low. The soft ISM Services print pulled price back toward 1.3220. Price now sits just under ema20 with RSI(14) near 47, and lower highs at the 1.3239 london high and 1.3229 are compressing price against the 1.3181–1.3190 range floor.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3181 prior wk low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3140 ytd low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.3239 london high reopens the 1.3256 nfp high and the 1.3265 area
Holding back above ema20 at 1.3220 would neutralise the sub-EMA read
Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue, BoE's Mann Tue 08:40 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Range after Wednesday high, highs drifting lower · RSI 47 · price 1.32226
Lower highs from 1.3311 against a flat 1.3181–1.3190 base.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 peak. Friday's post-NFP bounce stalled at the 1.3256 nfp high near the 50% retrace of the wed-thu drop, and Monday's 1.3250 week high came in just below it. Today's Asia-session flush and an early NY dip both held the 1.3190 monday low, above Thursday's 1.3181 swing low, and the NY dip recovered after an in-line US ISM Services print. That leaves a small double bottom with the 1.3239 london high as neckline, while price sits on EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.3222 with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3239 london high completes the double bottom and puts the lower highs line and 1.3250–1.3256 week high / nfp high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low exposes the 1.3181 swing low; a close below it marks a fresh lower-low in the wed-thu drop sequence
Fed's Williams/Bowman and BoE's Mann on Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs onto a flat base · RSI 35 · price 1.31955
Lower highs since Wed's 1.3311 peak pressing a 1.3181–1.3190 floor.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's London-session peak at 1.3311. Friday's NFP-miss bounce stalled at 1.3256, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Wed–Thu drop, and Monday's London push met rejection at 1.3239, just under the weekly open. Price slipped back below EMA(20) into the first hour of NY and is retesting the 1.3190 Monday low with RSI(14) near 35. The USD stays firm after the mixed ISM Services print (prices paid 74), keeping the 1.3181 week low and range floor in view.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3218, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3181 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3140 ytd low
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 1.3218 and the 1.3239 weekly open would break the lower-highs sequence, with the 1.3256 NFP high next overhead
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3311 against higher lows above 1.3181, a contracting range.
Wednesday's London push to 1.3311 fully unwound into Thursday's NY low at 1.3181 as DXY pressed annual highs. Friday's soft NFP lifted the pair to a 1.3256 friday high, stalling near the 50% retracement of that drop. Monday's early dip held above the week low at a 1.3190 monday low, a second higher low, but the rebound capped just under the 1.3239 weekly open, leaving price below a flat ema20 near 1.3224 with RSI(14) at 47.
Support: 1.3213, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3224, 1.3239, 1.3256
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A strong print puts the 1.3213 intraday low and 1.3190 monday low under pressure.
An H1 close below the 1.3181 week low breaks the higher lows line and confirms a lower-low.
An H1 close back above the ema20 and the 1.3239 weekly open, then the 1.3256 friday high, clears the 50% retracement and challenges the lower-highs sequence.
BoE's Mann speaks Tue 08:40 UTC. Hawkish remarks alongside gilt stress have been read as fiscal risk rather than support.
Contracting range 1.3181–1.3256: lower highs off 1.3311, higher low at 1.3190.
GBPUSD has been contained between the 1.3181 week low and the 1.3256 NFP high since Wednesday's spike to the 1.3311 wed high reversed. Thursday's London and NY sessions drove the sell-off as gilt stress and a firm USD weighed, and Friday's soft payrolls drove the bounce. Monday's Asia-session drop stalled at the 1.3190 monday low, a higher low above the week low, and the London recovery was rejected at the 1.3239 weekly open despite the UK services PMI beat. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 1.3224 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, around the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Thu sell-off.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3256 nfp high breaks the lower-high trendline from the 1.3311 wed high
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3181 week low
Sustained trade back below EMA(20) at 1.3224 turns the rejection at the weekly open into another lower high
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) is the nearest catalyst for a break of the range
Contracting range 1.3181–1.3256, lower highs vs higher lows.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3311 week high while the 1.3181 week low from Thursday's NY session has held. Friday's NFP-miss spike stalled at 1.3256 (nfp high), and Monday's Asia-session drop to the 1.3190 monday low was recovered through London on the UK services PMI beat. Price is now stalling under the weekly open at 1.3239 and the falling trendline, sitting on ema20 near the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Thursday decline, with RSI(14) mid-range near 47.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3256 nfp high breaks the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline, opening the path back toward the 1.3311 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3190 monday low puts the 1.3181 week low and the rising trendline under test
Sustained closes back below ema20 near 1.3224 would shift focus to the lower half of the range
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55, prior 55.4) could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.3239 weekly open keeps the converging range intact
09:02 UTC
Range after Thursday's selloff, mild recovery · RSI 53 · price 1.32291
Higher low at 1.3190 vs 1.3181, lower highs from 1.3311, compressing under weekly open.
GBPUSD slid to a monday low of 1.3190 in the Asia session as DXY gapped to yearly highs. It held above Thursday's 1.3181 week low, set in the gilt-driven selloff, and recovered through the London open to retest the 1.3239 weekly open from below. Lower highs run from the 1.3311 wed high to the 1.3256 nfp high and Monday's 1.3250, with price sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Thu leg and just above ema20. RSI(14) has recovered to the low 50s, keeping the read two-way inside 1.3181–1.3256.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.3256 nfp high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 50–61.8% fib zone up to 1.3261 and the 1.3311 wed high
Rejection at the 1.3239 weekly open and a slip back below ema20 returns focus to the 1.3190 monday low
Loss of 1.3181 week low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.3140 YTD low
BoE's Mann Tue 08:40 UTC and gilt yields near 6% are secondary GBP drivers
07:02 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower highs since Wednesday · RSI 42 · price 1.32111
Contracting range: lower highs from 1.3311 vs higher lows above 1.3181.
GBP/USD has been compressing since Wednesday's London-session week high at 1.3311. Highs have stepped lower at 1.3266, 1.3256 and 1.3250, while the 1.3181 week low from Thursday's NY session held. Friday's US payrolls miss lifted the pair to the 1.3256 nfp high, just short of the 61.8% retracement of the Wed–Thu decline, before a 40-pip Asia-session drop on the haven USD bid set a 1.3190 asia low and left price below ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 1.3190 asia low and 1.3181 week low back in focus
H1 close below the 1.3181 week low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.3140 ytd low
H1 close above the 1.3256 nfp high and the lower-high trendline breaks the compression and opens the path to the 1.3311 week high
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.3225 needed to neutralise the Asia-session drop