Double top at 1.3500, lower highs, below broken 1.3400.
Twin highs at 1.3503 (Wednesday NY open) and 1.3501 (Thursday London open) formed a double top. The pound faded after the fully priced BoE hike, and Friday's lower highs off the 1.3463 friday high gave way in the first hour of NY as the 165K NFP beat broke the 1.3400 tuesday low. The friday low at 1.3342 produced a bounce that stalled near 1.3378, where EMA(20) sits, and the close came back near the lows with RSI(14) around 29.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3378, 1.3400, 1.3463
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 1.3400 (tuesday low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3503–1.3342 drop) would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.3342 friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number
A move through the Friday lower-highs trendline and the ema20 near 1.3378 would mark the first break in the sequence since 1.3463
BoE's Bailey (Mon 17:25 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.3500 completed; lower highs and lower lows since Thursday.
Wednesday's Asia-session rally to 1.3503 was capped again on Thursday's London open at 1.3501, forming a double top. The BoE hike was faded, and price slipped through the 1.3454 neckline early Friday under a run of lower highs. The blowout NFP print in the first hour of NY then drove a 60-pip leg to the 1.3342 nfp low. Price is holding near 1.3347 into the close with RSI(14) oversold around 25 and the ema20 near 1.3382 overhead, just above the 1.3377 post-NFP bounce high.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3382, 1.3400, 1.3454
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3342 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3382 breaks the lower-highs trendline and eases the oversold read
Reclaiming 1.3400, the round number aligned with the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, would put the 1.3454 neckline back in focus
BoE Gov. Bailey (Mon 17:25 UTC) could materially shift this read; US CPI follows Tue 13:30 UTC
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended after NFP · RSI 29 · price 1.33473
Double top near 1.3500 broken; lower highs through Friday.
Two tests of 1.3500 failed, in Wednesday's NY session and at Thursday's London open, forming a double top. The market sold the BoE hike, and the 1.3446 neckline gave way through Friday's Asia and London sessions. The blowout NFP then drove the decline through 1.3400 psych to a week low of 1.3342 during NY hours, with Friday's lower highs capping every bounce. Price sits below the ema20 near 1.3382 with RSI(14) oversold around 29, and late-Friday bars are compressing just above the week low.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3382, 1.3400, 1.3446
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and 1.3400 psych, where the 38.2% of the Thu-Fri decline fib sits, would break the Friday lower highs and ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.3342 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number
A recovery to the 1.3446 neckline would test the double top break from below
Bailey (Mon 17:25 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double top near 1.3500 resolved lower; lower highs and lower lows through Friday.
Wednesday and Thursday both stalled at 1.3500 into the BoE hike. The 1.3448 neckline gave way in Friday's London session, and the 1.3400 psych level broke before the NY open. The blowout NFP print then extended the slide to a week low at 1.3342, and the post-NFP high at 1.3377 has capped the bounce, near the 23.6% retrace. Price sits under a falling EMA(20) with RSI(14) below 30, and the Friday high at 1.3463 anchors the lower-high trendline.
Support: 1.33421, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33774, 1.3400, 1.34632
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3400 psych level negates the post-NFP breakdown read
Break below the 1.3342 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 round number
Reclaim of the post-NFP high at 1.3377 opens the 38.2% retrace near 1.3404
Bailey Mon 17:25 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:23 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NFP leg · RSI 29 · price 1.33473
Double top at 1.3500, lower highs and lower lows since Thursday.
Wednesday's London-led rally stalled at 1.3503, and Thursday's London open retest at 1.3501 failed, completing a double top. The post-BoE fade then broke through the Thu low at 1.3448. Friday's NY session extended the slide after the 165K NFP beat. Price sliced through the 1.3400 round number to a week low at 1.3342, with lower highs capping each bounce and price pinned below the ema20 near 1.3382. RSI(14) near 29 is oversold, and the late-Friday 1.3346–1.3377 band shows the move pausing rather than reversing.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3382, 1.3400, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3400 round number (38.2% fib) would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3342 week low exposes the 1.3300 psych level
Reclaim of the Thu low at 1.3448 (61.8% fib) would undercut the double top breakdown
Bailey Mon 17:25 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read