GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Rebound from NFP low, stalling at 61.8% retracement · RSI 64 · price 1.34351
1.3500 double top broke into a lower low at 1.3342; Monday's higher-low recovery is testing the 61.8% fib.
The Wednesday–Thursday double top at 1.3500 gave way to a slide that accelerated on Friday's 165K NFP beat, printing a 1.3342 nfp low during NY hours. Monday's recovery came on broad USD weakness and Iran de-escalation headlines. It built through the Asian range, extended at London open and held a 1.3399 ny dip low in the NY session. Price has now stalled at the 1.3444 monday high, the 61.8% fib of the week's decline, while holding above ema20 near 1.3420 with RSI(14) around 64.
Support: 1.3420, 1.3399, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3444, 1.3486, 1.3500
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read. A hot print would put the ema20 and the 1.3399 ny dip low in focus.
H1 close above the 1.3444 monday high / 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.3486 boe high and the 1.3500 double top.
Loss of the recovery trendline and the 1.3399 ny dip low would mark Monday's rally as a corrective retracement within the decline from the double top.
BoE speakers Tue (Breeden 08:30, Lombardelli 12:30, Pill 18:30 GMT) could shift the GBP leg of the read.
Higher lows since Monday open after Friday's lower-low.
The week's dominant move was Friday's NFP-driven slide from the 1.3500 double top to the 1.3342 nfp low. Monday has retraced most of that slide to the 61.8% fib near 1.3444 as the USD softened on US-Iran de-escalation headlines and lower oil. A London-open breakout through 1.3400 psych was retested during NY hours, and that pullback held at the EMA(20), leaving higher lows along a rising trendline with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.3412, 1.3400, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3444, 1.3463, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.3400 psych and the ema20 would mark a failed breakout and break the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.3444 opens the friday high at 1.3463, then the 1.3500 double top
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
BoE's Pill at 18:30 UTC Tue; pushback on December hike pricing has capped GBP rallies
A drop back toward the 1.3342 nfp low would reopen Friday's lower-low structure
Higher lows since Monday open beneath Wednesday–Thursday double top.
The week's dominant leg was Friday's NFP-driven slide from the 1.3463 friday high to the 1.3342 week low. That followed a double top at 1.3500–1.3503 across Wednesday and Thursday's BoE session. Monday has recovered steadily on broad USD softness as US-Iran headlines pushed oil lower. The late-NY push cleared the London high at 1.3426 and now sits on the fib 61.8% of the NFP drop near 1.3442, with the 1.3399 ny dip low holding as a higher low and RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.3426, 1.3399, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3442, 1.3463, 1.3503
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC and Pill at 18:30 UTC
H1 close back below the 1.3426 london high would turn Monday's breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3399 ny dip low breaks the Monday higher-low trendline and reopens the 1.3342 week low
Acceptance above the fib 61.8% and the 1.3463 friday high brings the 1.3500–1.3503 double top back into play
20:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the NFP low, momentum firm · RSI 72 · price 1.34397
Higher lows since Friday's low; price at the 61.8% fib, below the 1.3500 double top.
After a double top at 1.3500–1.3503 on Wednesday and Thursday around the BoE, GBPUSD set lower highs and fell to the 1.3342 week low on Friday's NFP beat. Monday has recovered about 60% of that week drop on broad USD weakness tied to US‑Iran ceasefire hopes. The climb ran through Asia and London from 1.3349, a NY-hours dip held the Monday low at 1.3399 just above EMA(20), and the late NY push tagged the 61.8% fib at 1.3442. Higher lows are intact and RSI(14) is near 72, its highest reading of the window.
Support: 1.3423, 1.3399, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3442, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3442 opens a retest of the 1.3503 double top
Slip back below the 50% fib at 1.3423 puts the Monday low at 1.3399 and EMA(20) near 1.3409 in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3399 Monday low breaks the higher lows sequence and reopens the 1.3342 week low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT is the next GBP-specific risk to the 1.3355–1.3500 band
19:01 UTC
Monday rebound within a pullback from 1.3500 · RSI 66 · price 1.34233
Double top 1.3500, Friday low 1.3342, Monday higher lows.
The 1.3500 double top (Wednesday and Thursday's London open) gave way to a Friday slide to a 1.3342 week low on the NFP beat. Monday has retraced half of that drop as the USD softened on Iran de-escalation and lower oil, with the London open push followed by a NY-hours dip that held the 1.3399 swing low. Price is now pressing the 50% retracement of the 1.3503-1.3342 move just under the 1.3427 Monday high, above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3399, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3427, 1.3442, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3442 extends the rebound back toward the 1.3500 double top
Break of the 1.3399 swing low and Monday higher lows trendline returns focus to the 1.3342 week low
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; BoE speakers Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill also on Tuesday
UK Q3 GDP Thu 07:00 GMT is the next GBP-side test of the 1.3355-1.3500 band
18:02 UTC
Recovery leg within last week's decline, stalling · RSI 66 · price 1.34187
Higher lows since weekly open, capped at 1.3426.
Last week's double top at 1.3500–1.3503 gave way to a slide to the 1.3342 nfp low in Friday's NY session after the blowout US payrolls print. Monday rebuilt from the 1.3349 weekly open through Asia and London as the USD weakened on Iran de-escalation hopes and falling oil. The rebound has met rejection twice at the 1.3426 day high, just above the 50% retrace of the decline, while the NY dip to the 1.3399 ny low held the Monday trendline; price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 66, off today's highs.
Support: 1.3399, 1.3349, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3486, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3426 day high clears the 50% decline fib and opens the path to the 1.3486 boe high (Thursday's post-BoE high), then the 1.3503 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3399 ny low and the Monday trendline puts the 1.3349 weekly open and 1.3342 nfp low back in view
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
BoE Breeden, Lombardelli and Pill on Tue could move GBP on December-vs-February hike timing
Monday higher lows off weekly open, now consolidating under 1.3426 after a double-top breakdown.
Last week's double top at 1.3500, printed Wednesday and again into Thursday's London open, gave way to a slide that bottomed at the 1.3342 NFP low on Friday's payrolls beat. Monday's rebound from the 1.3349 weekly open has climbed in higher lows through Asia and London as the USD softened on US-Iran de-escalation hopes, retracing to the 50% fib of that drop near 1.3420. The NY-session dip to 1.3399 held at EMA(20) and the 1.3400 round number, with EMA(50) at 1.3408 still above EMA(20), RSI(14) near 66 and price consolidating beneath the Monday high at 1.3426.
Support: 1.3399, 1.3349, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3443, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Monday high at 1.3426 and the 50% fib exposes the 1.3443 prior low, Thursday night's breakdown point, then the 1.3500 double top
Loss of EMA(20) and the Monday higher-lows trendline near 1.3400 reopens the weekly open at 1.3349 and the NFP low at 1.3342
Bailey speaks at 17:25 UTC; a pushback against more hikes could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major test of the rebound; UK GDP on Thursday follows
Double top broken, Monday bounce stalling below 61.8% fib.
The Tuesday–Thursday double top at the 1.3503 week high gave way after Friday's 165K NFP beat, and the NY-session drop printed a 1.3342 week low. Broad USD weakness drove a Monday recovery that accelerated at London open but stalled at the 1.3426 Monday high, just above the 50% retracement of the Friday leg, and the Monday trendline slipped in the first hours of NY. Price now sits on the ema50 near 1.3406 with the ema20 just below at 1.3398, while RSI(14) has eased from about 63 into the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3406, 1.3398, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3442, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 at 1.3398 would confirm the Monday trendline break and expose the 1.3342 week low
Close above the 1.3426 Monday high opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 1.3442
Barkin at 17:15 UTC and Bailey at 17:25 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next test for the 1.3342 week low to 1.3503 week high range
The double top near 1.3500 from midweek gave way to a two-day slide, and Friday's NFP beat extended it to the nfp low at 1.3342. Monday's Asia session and London open recovered most of that drop on broad USD weakness. Price is back above EMA(20) and capped at the monday high of 1.3426, which sits on the 50% fib of the 1.3503–1.3342 drop, with RSI(14) near 62 cooling as price holds a tight range above the 38.2% fib at 1.3404.
Support: 1.34036, 1.33973, 1.33421
Resistance: 1.34259, 1.34415, 1.3503
What it said to watch
BoE Governor Bailey at 17:25 UTC could materially shift this read; with about three hikes priced, a 'no sequence' message leaves room for repricing
H1 close above the 1.3426 monday high and 50% fib opens the 61.8% fib at 1.3442, with the 1.3500 double top beyond
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 1.3404 and EMA(20) near 1.3397 would undercut Monday's rebound and expose the nfp low at 1.3342
US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next scheduled driver for the USD leg
Double top at 1.3500, Friday lower low at 1.3342, Monday recovery stalling at the 50% retrace.
GBPUSD put in a double top at 1.3500, first on Wednesday and again into Thursday's BoE decision. Friday's blowout NFP then drove the NY session down to the NFP low at 1.3342. Broad USD weakness lifted Monday back above EMA(20) at 1.3394 and EMA(50) near 1.3405 to the Monday high at 1.3426, just above the 50% retrace of the Thursday–Friday drop, with RSI(14) near 61. Price is now retesting Friday's 1.3410–1.3425 breakdown zone while holding the rising Monday trendline.
Support: 1.3403, 1.3394, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3440, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday trendline and the 38.2% fib near 1.3403 exposes ema20 at 1.3394 and the 1.3349 Monday open
Close above the Monday high at 1.3426 and the 61.8% fib at 1.3440 shifts focus back to the 1.3500 double top
Bailey at 17:25 UTC today: a 'no preset sequence' tone could unwind the Monday rebound
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; failure to hold the NFP low at 1.3342 extends the lower-low sequence
13:02 UTC
Rebound from NFP low, stalling at the 50% retracement · RSI 58 · price 1.3411
Monday higher lows retracing last week's 1.3503-1.3342 drop, capped at 1.3426.
Since Monday's Asia open GBP/USD has retraced about half of last week's 1.3503-1.3342 sell-off. The lift came from a softer USD on risk-on and Iran-deal hopes, not UK news. The London-session leg stalled at the 1.3426 Monday high, right at the 50% fib, and price has eased back to sit just above the Monday trendline and EMA(50) near 1.3404, with EMA(20) at 1.3392 below and RSI(14) cooling from 63 to 58. The Wednesday-Thursday double top at 1.3500 is still the week high after Friday's NY-session NFP break to the 1.3342 NFP low.
Support: 1.3404, 1.3392, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3426, 1.3442, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3404 Monday trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes EMA(20) at 1.3392
H1 close back above the 1.3426 Monday high opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 1.3442
Bailey speech at 17:25 UTC today could materially shift this read
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility event
A move back through 1.3442 brings the 1.3500 double top back into focus; failure under 1.3392 points back toward the 1.3342 NFP low
Higher lows since Monday open; at 50% of Thu–Fri drop.
After the double top at 1.3500 on Wednesday and Thursday, the hot US NFP print drove Friday's NY session down to a 1.3342 week low. Since Monday's Asia open, price has stacked higher lows, accelerating at London open as USD softened on risk-on and Iran-deal headlines. It now sits above the ema20 near 1.3392 and the ema50 near 1.3405, retesting the 1.3415–1.3425 breakdown zone at the session high, which is also the 50% retracement of the Thu–Fri decline. RSI(14) at 66 shows firm momentum without an overbought reading, though EMA20 is still below EMA50.
Support: 1.3405, 1.3392, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3423, 1.3440, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3440 fib 61.8 retracement opens the path back toward the 1.3500 double top
Rejection at the 1.3423 session high and a close back below the ema50 at 1.3405 would mark this as a retest of broken support
Loss of the Monday higher-low trendline and the ema20 at 1.3392 returns focus to the 1.3342 week low
BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 17:25 GMT today and could materially shift this read
US October CPI on Tue at 13:30 GMT is the next major event risk for the USD leg
Lower high/lower low from the 1.3503 double top; Monday higher lows retracing to the 50% fib.
The week's double top at 1.3503/1.3501 (Wed NY open, Thu London open) gave way after the BoE hike faded and the 1.3445 neckline broke. Friday's 165K NFP beat then extended the slide to the 1.3342 NFP low in the NY session. Since Monday's Asia session open price has stepped up on clean higher lows, and the London open pushed through the 1.3400 round number that the macro digest flags as the cap. The pair is now testing the 50% fib of the weekly swing at 1.3423, with RSI(14) near 63 and price above both the EMA(20) at ~1.3387 and the EMA(50) at ~1.3405.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3387, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3423, 1.3445, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3400 round number puts the London breakout at risk of a false break
Acceptance above the 50% fib at 1.3423 shifts focus to the 1.3445 neckline, a likely retest zone
Loss of Monday's higher-low trendline and the ema20 near 1.3387 reopens the 1.3342 NFP low
BoE Gov. Bailey at 17:25 GMT could materially shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger USD risk
Monday higher lows retracing the Wed–Fri decline, now at the 50% fib.
The H1 chart has retraced the drop from Wednesday's 1.3503 week high to the 1.3342 week low, which followed Friday's 165K NFP beat. Monday's higher lows have carried price back to the 50% fib near 1.3423, and the London open pushed it through the 1.3400 round number that the digest had flagged as a cap. Price sits above EMA(20) at about 1.3380 with RSI(14) near 68. The session high at 1.3419 is capping the first test of the 50% fib.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3380, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3463, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3400 round number would mark the London breakout as a false break and expose the ema20 near 1.3380
Acceptance above the session high and the 61.8% fib at 1.3441 brings the 1.3463 pre-NFP high and the lower-highs line from the week high into view
Loss of Monday's higher-lows line puts the 1.3342 week low back in focus
Bailey speaks at 17:25 GMT today and US CPI is due Tue 13:30 GMT; either could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend from 1.3500, corrective rebound under way · RSI 63 · price 1.34107
Double top at 1.3500, lower highs into Friday low; Monday higher lows reclaiming EMAs.
Wednesday's 1.3503 high and Thursday's 1.3501 retest formed a double top after the BoE hike failed to extend gains. The slide then accelerated in Friday's NY session on the 165K NFP beat, reaching a 1.3342 week low. Monday's rebound from the 1.3349 weekly open printed steady higher lows through the Asian session and extended at London open to the 1.3416 Monday high. That puts price back above EMA(20) at 1.3384 and testing the 1.3400 round number, where EMA(50) also sits, with RSI(14) at 63. Price is holding between the 38.2% (1.3404) and 50% (1.3423) retracements of the 1.3503-1.3342 drop.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3384, 1.3349
Resistance: 1.3416, 1.3442, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3400 round number and EMA(20) at 1.3384 would turn the Monday rebound into a rejected retest
Break of the Monday higher lows trendline near 1.3391 shifts focus back to the 1.3349 weekly open and the 1.3342 week low
A close above the Monday high and the 50% retracement at 1.3423 opens the path to the 61.8% fib near 1.3442, where Friday's breakdown began
Bailey speech today 17:25 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.3503 broke down; Monday higher lows.
GBPUSD capped twice at the 1.3503 week high on Wednesday and Thursday. The unanimous BoE hike failed to extend the move, and the pair broke the 1.3443 thu low into Friday. The blowout US NFP drove the leg to the 1.3342 week low in the NY session. Since the weekly open at 1.3349, Asia and early London have built a grind of higher lows back above the ema20. Price is now pressing the 1.3400 round number, which sits just under the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3375, 1.3349, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3443, 1.3503
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3400 round number and 38.2% fib (1.3404) extends the bounce toward the 1.3443 thu low
Rejection at 1.3400 and a break of the Monday higher lows line returns focus to the ema20 near 1.3375
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3349 exposes the 1.3342 week low and resumes the downtrend
Bailey speech at 17:25 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major test of the post-NFP USD move
The 1.3503 week high remains the double top line; only a reclaim changes the broader structure
07:02 UTC
Downtrend from 1.3500, Monday rebound in progress · RSI 52 · price 1.33873
Double top 1.3500 then lower highs to 1.3342 NFP low; Asia higher lows.
Thursday and Friday drove the week. A double top near 1.3500 gave way after the BoE decision, and the 165K NFP beat extended the slide through 1.3400 to the 1.3342 NFP low during Friday's NY session. Monday's Asia session has built up from the 1.3349 weekly open in a steady run of higher lows along the Asia trendline, lifting price just above EMA(20) near 1.3378, with RSI(14) back only to around 52 and EMA(50) still overhead. Above price, the 1.3403 pre-NFP high lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3501–1.3342 decline, and the 50% fib sits at 1.3421.
Support: 1.3378, 1.3349, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3403, 1.3421
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3403 pre-NFP high and 38.2% fib opens the path to the 50% fib at 1.3421
A break of the Asia trendline and a slip back below EMA20 at 1.3378 return focus to the 1.3349 weekly open
Loss of the 1.3342 NFP low would extend the post-NFP lower-low sequence
Bailey speaks at 17:25 UTC today and US CPI is due Tue 13:30 GMT; either could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 44 · price 1.33797
Lower highs and lows off 1.3500 double top; corrective bounce below broken 1.3400.
GBPUSD set a double top at the 1.3500 week high between Wednesday's 1.3503 peak and Thursday's London-open retest, then carved lower highs through the BoE hike before losing 1.3400 at Friday's London open and extending to the 1.3342 NFP low after the 165K payrolls beat. Monday's Asian session has lifted price off the 1.3349 weekly open to a 1.3381 Asian high, edging back above EMA(20) and stalling at the 23.6% fib of the 1.3503-1.3342 drop, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s and EMA(50) still overhead. Above, the broken 1.3400 handle lines up with the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 1.3376, 1.3349, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3381, 1.3400, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below EMA(20) near 1.3376 and the 1.3349 weekly open returns focus to the 1.3342 NFP low
Acceptance above the broken 1.3400 / 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the path toward 1.3445, with the 1.3500 week high beyond
Rejection at the 1.3381 Asian high keeps the bounce corrective within the downtrend
Bailey speech Mon 17:25 UTC could materially shift this read; any walk-back of priced BoE hikes is the larger risk
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the main event risk for a 1.3400 test
Lower highs from 1.3500 double top; bounce testing EMA20.
The double top near 1.3500, set on Wednesday and again in Thursday's London session, gave way after the BoE's unanimous hike failed to extend gains. The lower-high sequence then ran into Friday's NY-session payrolls beat, which drove the drop to the nfp low at 1.3342. Monday's Asia session has lifted price back to the flattening ema20 near 1.3376 and the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3501–1.3342 drop, with RSI(14) recovering to ~47 from the low 20s, while the broken level at 1.3400–1.3404 lines up with the 38.2% and capped Friday's last bounce before the data.
Support: 1.3376, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3402, 1.3463, 1.3502
What it said to watch
H1 close above the broken level at 1.3404 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the pre-nfp high at 1.3463 in view
Repeated failure below 1.3400 keeps the double top breakdown intact
Loss of ema20 and a break of the 1.3342 nfp low would confirm a fresh lower low
BoE Gov. Bailey speaks today 17:25 UTC; tone on priced hikes could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility risk for the 1.3342–1.3404 band
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling at EMA20 · RSI 51 · price 1.33706
Double top at 1.3500 broken; lower highs into Friday's week low.
GBPUSD topped at the 1.3503 week high on Wednesday and failed again near 1.3500 into Thursday's BoE decision. When the unanimous hike drew no follow-through, that left a double top, and the pair broke below 1.3450 into Friday. The 165K NFP beat extended the run of lower highs through 1.3400 during NY hours to a 1.3342 week low. Monday's Asia session has bounced from the 1.3348 monday low to a 1.3376 asia high, stalling just under EMA(20) and the 23.6% fib of the week drop with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 1.3348, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3376, 1.3400, 1.3503
What it said to watch
Asia high 1.3376 near EMA(20): area to watch for rejection or break
An H1 close above 1.3400, the broken level and 38.2% fib of the week drop, would end the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3348 monday low exposes the 1.3342 week low
Bailey speech today 17:25 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below the 1.3503 double top; base at 1.3342-1.3348.
Wednesday's 1.3503 week high was retested at 1.3501 early Thursday, forming a double top. The post-BoE lower high at 1.3486 led a Thursday-Friday slide that the strong US payrolls print extended to a 1.3342 week low during NY hours. Price then based between that low and the 1.3348 Friday close, and Monday's Asia session has lifted it through the trendline of lower highs to test EMA(20) near 1.3376, with RSI(14) recovering to ~42 from sub-25 on Friday; overhead, the 1.3400 psych level and the 1.3404 pre-NFP high line up with the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, with the 1.3463 lower high above.
Support: 1.3348, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3376, 1.3404, 1.3463
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3380 (ema20 / 23.6% fib) would mark the first reclaim of EMA20 since Thursday
Rejection at the 1.3400-1.3404 pre-NFP high / 38.2% fib zone keeps the lower-high sequence intact; the 1.3463 lower high is the next structural cap
Failure to hold the 1.3348 Friday close and a break of the 1.3342 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
BoE Gov. Bailey speaks today at 17:25 UTC; dovish remarks on the priced hike path could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the week's structure
Wednesday's Asia-session rally ran into a double top at 1.3500, with the London open on Thursday rejected there. Lower highs followed through Friday's London session, and the beat on US payrolls in NY hours extended the drop through the 1.3400 round number to a week low at 1.3342. Monday's Asian range has lifted from the monday low at 1.3347 into the falling EMA(20) near 1.3375, with RSI(14) recovering toward the mid-40s but still below 50.
Support: 1.3347, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3375, 1.3400, 1.3500
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3347 monday low and the 1.3342 week low would confirm a fresh lower-low
Hourly closes above the EMA(20) at 1.3375 and the 1.3400 round number, near the 38.2% fib at 1.3404, would challenge the lower-high sequence
BoE Governor Bailey at 17:25 UTC today could shift the read in either direction
US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the pair this week
1.3500 double top remains the upper cap of this week's structure
Lower highs from a 1.3503 double top; tight Asian base above 1.3342.
Wednesday's 1.3503 high was retested and rejected into Thursday's BoE hike, which was sold as fully priced. Lower highs then broke the 1.3400 pivot during Friday's London session, and the 165K NFP beat extended the decline to a 1.3342 week low. Monday's Asia session is holding a narrow band between the weekly open at 1.3349 and the Monday high at 1.3366, with price below EMA(20) near 1.3375, the post-NFP bounce high at 1.3377 and the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3503–1.3342 decline, while RSI(14) recovers only to the mid-30s.
Support: 1.3349, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3366, 1.3377, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3377 bounce high and EMA(20) would open a test of the 1.3400 broken pivot
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3349 exposes the 1.3342 week low; a break there confirms another lower low
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin (Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC) and BoE's Bailey (Mon 17:25 UTC) could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next test of the post-NFP USD repricing behind the decline
Double top breakdown, lower highs, tight base above 1.3342.
Twin highs at 1.3503 on Wednesday and 1.3501 on Thursday formed a double top after the BoE hike faded. The neckline near 1.3448 gave way in Friday's Asia session, and the strong NFP print (165K vs 65K) extended the drop into the NY session to the 1.3342 nfp low. Since then price has held a roughly 30-pip band below the EMA(20) at 1.3376, with Monday's Asia session edging up to 1.3362 and RSI(14) recovering into the high-30s; the 1.3400 psych level sits at the 38.2% fib of the double top leg.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3376, 1.3400, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.3376 and then the 1.3400 psych level would challenge the post-NFP lower-high sequence
A break below the 1.3342 nfp low extends the lower-low structure toward the 1.3300 round number
Recovery into the 61.8% fib near the 1.3448 neckline would mean most of the double top leg had retraced
BoE Gov. Bailey speaks Mon 17:25 UTC; a hawkish lean on December could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Fedspeak from Mon 13:40 UTC, is the next USD-side catalyst