Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5565 sweep, above the former range top.
After two weeks capped in a 0.5580–0.5630 range, a sweep to 0.5565 marked the low. Price then broke the range top on RBNZ hike bets and a softer USD, printing higher highs and higher lows through the 0.5641 higher low to a 0.5699 swing high, just above the late-September highs, where the latest bars stalled. EMA20 crossed above EMA50 on the breakout, and ATR(14) near 14.5 pips shows an orderly advance rather than an expanding one, with the 0.5675 flip level as the nearest support below.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5641, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.5732
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 0.5675 flip level would expose the rising trendline and the 0.5641 higher low
A break of the 0.5641 higher low would end the swing sequence, leaving the 0.5630 range top as the next shelf near the fib 50% of the impulse
A sustained clearance of the 0.5699 swing high opens the path to the 0.5732 prior high at the top of the window
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; the digest flags 0.5650–0.5665 on a soft print
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the main USD-side risk to the impulse
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, testing late-Sept high · RSI 60 · price 0.56822
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5565 low.
Higher-high, higher-low sequence intact since the 0.5565 low, with higher lows at 0.5641 and 0.5655 and EMA20 now above EMA50, a rally fuelled by Conway's hike signal and a softer USD. The latest bar probed through the 0.5690 sept high to 0.5699, just shy of the 0.5700 round number, but closed back at 0.5682, a rejection at the level. ATR(14) holds near 15 pips, steady rather than compressing, while the 0.5675 prior high now sits as the first support.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5655, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700, 0.5733
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY / 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read around the 0.5690 sept high
H4 close above the 0.5700 round number opens the path to the 0.5733 window high
Failure to hold the 0.5655 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the higher lows trendline
A deeper pullback toward the 0.5641 higher low puts the 38.2% rally fib in focus
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next USD-side risk to the rally
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5565 false break below the early-October range.
After the slide from the 0.5736 swing high, NZDUSD held a 0.5580–0.5630 range for two weeks. A false break to 0.5565 reversed, and the range break above the 0.5630 range top has since printed higher highs and higher lows, with EMA20 now above EMA50. Price is testing the 0.5690 prior high as a softer USD and roughly 80% RBNZ hike pricing lift NZD, while ATR(14) holds near 15 pips with no expansion yet.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5641, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5736
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; much of the hike case is already priced
H4 close above the 0.5690 prior high opens the path toward the 0.5736 swing high
Loss of the 0.5675 flip level, then the 0.5641 swing low at the 38.2% fib, would break the higher-low sequence
A return below the 0.5630 range top would reopen the early-October range
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the main USD-side risk to the move
09:04 UTC
Uptrend off the base, pressing resistance · RSI 71 · price 0.5688
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5565 false break; testing late-Sept highs.
The two-week slide from the 0.5749 window high based out at 0.5580-0.5630. Last week's false break to the 0.5565 swing low reversed into a higher-low rally that cleared the 0.5675 breakout lvl and now presses the 0.5690 sept high. Softer US yields and ~80% RBNZ hike pricing drove the leg. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 17 pips points to a steady rather than stretched advance, though RSI ~71 sits at the top of its range.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5641, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5733, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5690 sept high opens the 0.5733 prior high and the 0.5749 window high
Slip back below the 0.5675 breakout lvl would frame the push as a failed test of the sept high
Break of the 0.5641 higher low, also the 38.2% of the rally fib, and the rising trendline undercuts the reversal; 0.5565 swing low is the base
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) with an RBNZ hike ~80% priced could materially shift this read
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the main USD-side risk to the structure
Breakout above two-week range, first higher low at 0.5641.
The three-week decline from the 0.5749 window high bottomed at the 0.5565 cycle low. Sharply lower US yields then drove a rebound through the 0.5580-0.5630 range top that had capped price for two weeks, with EMA20 crossing above EMA50. The advance has stalled twice at the 0.5675 twin highs, just under the 61.8% retracement of the decline fib at 0.5679, while the 0.5641 swing low marks the first higher low and ATR(14) near 16 pips has eased from the breakout bars.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5630, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5687, 0.5749
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5675 twin highs and 0.5679 decline fib opens the late-September 0.5687 prior high, then the 0.5749 window high
Failure below the 0.5641 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.5630 range top back in play
Acceptance back below the 0.5630 range top returns price to the old range, with the 0.5565 cycle low as the base
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read, with a soft print the larger risk given ~80% RBNZ hike pricing
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and the US 10y yield near 5.13% are the USD-side inputs to the stall at 0.5675