21:06 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing from October base · RSI 49 · price 0.56671
LH/LL chain from 21 Aug high; two-week base broken to the upside, still below the late-Sep lower high.
The two-month downtrend from the 21 Aug high at 0.5988 has printed lower highs and lower lows, with price capped below a falling EMA(50), now near 0.5708, since early September. RSI dipped into the low 20s in early October before two weeks of basing between the 0.5565 oct low and the 0.5640 range top. Friday's range break, driven by softer US yields and RBNZ hike bets, has lifted price back above the EMA(20) and onto the 23.6% fib at 0.5665, just under the 0.5687 sep high.
Support: 0.5640, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5708, 0.5750
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5687 sep high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5708 ema50 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5727; the 0.5750 lower high from 21 Sep is the next pivot above
- Close back below the 0.5640 range top would turn Friday's range break into a false break
- Break of the 0.5565 oct low resumes the lower-low chain
- NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) with ~80% RBNZ hike odds priced; a soft print could pull price back toward the range top
- US S&P Global PMIs Fri and next week's FOMC could shift the USD leg of this read