NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 39 · price 0.56765
Lower highs from 0.5699, retesting 0.5676 swing low in early Asia.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 ny high, on the softer USD, poked above the 0.5689 london high and stalled under the 0.5700 handle. That move was a false break, and it fully reversed. Lower highs since have the early Asia session sitting on the 0.5676 swing low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56764, 0.5670, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56853, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A sustained break of the 0.5676 swing low (ignoring the rollover spike) confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5670 round number, then the 0.5661 day low
An M15 close above the 0.5685 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5689 london high
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC Oct 21 (QoQ f/c 0.8%) is the main event risk for this structure; pre-data positioning may keep ranges tight until then
23:32 UTC
Sideways-to-softer after failed NY spike · RSI 43 · price 0.56781
Lower highs since 0.5699 rejection, testing double low.
Tuesday's NY spike to 0.5699 on soft US housing data was rejected within an hour. That was a false break above the 0.5689 London high, and price has since printed lower highs down to the 0.5685 Asia session high. Early Asia is sitting on the 0.5676 double low with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs; ATR is inflated by the rollover spike to 0.5672.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56724
Resistance: 0.56853, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5676 double low turns the lower-high sequence into a lower low, exposing the 0.5672 rollover low
Reclaim of the 0.5685 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.5689 London high and 0.5699 day high above
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) is the next binary catalyst; pre-data ranges may stay compressed
Lower highs from 0.5699 against a flat 0.5676 floor.
The spike to the 0.5699 prior-day high on soft US housing data was rejected within the hour. Price has since printed lower highs, capped at the 0.5685 Asia session high, and is testing the 0.5676 swing low for a third time, near the 61.8% fib of the 0.5661–0.5699 move. RSI(14) is near 41 and price sits below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5676 swing low breaks the floor and exposes the 0.5661 Asian low from yesterday
Close above the 0.5685 session high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5699 prior-day high back in view
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Sideways after NY rejection, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 0.56797
Lower highs below 0.5699 day high; price sitting on the 50% fib of the Asia-to-NY rally.
Soft US housing data lifted NZDUSD to a 0.56987 day high in the NY session. The pair was rejected just under the 0.5700 handle, and lower highs at 0.56868 and 0.56853 have formed since. Early Asia has filled the rollover spike low at 0.56724, and price is back at the 50% fib near 0.5680, sitting just above the 0.56764 NY low.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56724
Resistance: 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.56764 NY low exposes the 0.56724 spike low and the 61.8% fib near 0.5676
Close above the 0.56853 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.56987 day high
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the next binary for this pair; positioning into it could compress the range
22:32 UTC
Range after failed NY breakout · RSI 45 · price 0.56799
Lower highs below the 0.5699 rejection, holding 0.5676–0.5689.
The Asia rally off the 0.5661 Asia low stalled at the 0.5689 London high. NY then spiked to 0.5699 as soft US housing data weighed on USD, but the move fully reversed, a false break that returned price to the 50% fib near 0.5680. Early Asia trade is pinned between the 0.5676 NY low and a series of lower highs capping at 0.5686, with RSI(14) at 45 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56764, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56864, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5676 NY low breaks the post-NY range and exposes the 0.5661 Asia low
Recovery through the 0.5686 lower high and the 0.5689 London high negates the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.5680 shifts focus to the 61.8% retracement near 0.5676
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major catalyst; pre-event positioning may keep the range compressed
Compressing in a 0.5680–0.5687 range below a rejected day high.
Soft USD carried the Asia-to-London rally from 0.5661 to 0.5689. A NY-hours spike to the 0.5699 day high above the late-September 0.5690 area was rejected within the hour and ran down to the 0.5676 NY low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia low–day high move. Late NY and the early Asia session are compressing between the 0.5680 range floor, which sits on the 50% fib, and the 0.5687 range top; RSI(14) is neutral near 51, and the rollover dip to 0.5672 was a spread spike.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5687 range top reopens the 0.5699 day high and the 0.5690 late-Sept area
Failure to hold the 0.5680 range floor / 50% fib exposes the 0.5676 NY low
ATR near 3 pips is inflated by the rollover spike; underlying Asia-session bars are running 1–2 pips
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ, 3.8% YoY) could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Sideways after NY spike rejection · RSI 56 · price 0.56843
Range 0.5680–0.5687 below rejected NY high.
NY session spiked through 0.5690 to the 0.5699 NY high after the soft US housing data, then reversed sharply to the 0.5676 NY low. Since then price has held a 0.5680 range base to 0.5687 swing high band and is testing the 38.2% of the NY spike fib. The rollover gap down to the 0.5672 low filled at once in thin early-Asia trade; RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.56802, 0.56764, 0.56724
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5687 swing high and 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 ny high
Failure to hold the 0.5680 range base exposes the 0.5676 ny low, with the 0.5672 rollover low below
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ, 3.8% YoY) could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Flat, after a rejected NY spike · RSI 51 · price 0.5683
Lower highs against higher lows, compressing 0.5680–0.5687.
The NY session spike to the 0.5699 session high on soft US housing data was fully rejected, and price slid back to the 0.5676 NY low. Since then a lower high at 0.5687 and a higher low at 0.5680 have squeezed price to 0.5683 into the early Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral at 51. The 21:00 UTC rollover wick to 0.5672 came on thin liquidity and was quickly recovered.
Support: 0.56802, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 higher low breaks the compression and exposes the 0.5676 NY low
M15 close above the 0.5687 lower high reopens the 0.5699 session high
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a sharper move than a hot one
21:32 UTC
Range after rejected NY spike · RSI 48 · price 0.56831
Lower highs from 0.5699 day high, 0.5680–0.5687 range into Asia open.
Asia carried the NZD bid from 0.5660 to the 0.5689 london high, and the NY spike to the 0.5699 day high was fully rejected back to the 0.5677 ny low, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally. Since then price has held a tight 0.5680 swing low to 0.5687 swing high range under the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price flat on EMA20/50. The rollover wick to 0.5672 printed on thin liquidity and was reclaimed. ATR is inflated by that bar.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5677
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5687 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.5689 london high back into view
Failure to hold the 0.5680 swing low exposes the 0.5677 ny low at the Asia rally fib 38.2%
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) is the main event risk; pre-print positioning may keep the range compressed
Lower highs since NY spike rejection; gapped below 0.5680 floor at rollover.
The NY spike through the 0.5690 late-September highs to a 0.5699 day high at 14:30 UTC was rejected, leaving a lower-highs sequence capped near the 0.5687 lower high into the close. The rollover bar gapped about 7 pips below the 0.5680 floor on thin early-Asia liquidity to a 0.5673 session low, near the 61.8% of the rally fib. RSI(14) sits around 27.
Support: 0.56727, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.56868, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5680 fills the rollover gap and neutralises the drop
Failure to hold the 0.5673 session low exposes the 0.5670 round number
A break of the lower-highs line near 0.5687 would undo the post-spike rejection read
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) is the main event risk; the digest maps a soft print to the 0.5650–0.5665 area
21:05 UTC
Flat after a failed NY spike · RSI 46 · price 0.56834
Post-NY consolidation between a 0.5680 late floor and a 0.5687 bounce high.
A NY-hours spike to a 0.5699 session high cleared the 0.5689 London high as soft US housing data weighed on USD, then fully reversed to a 0.5676 NY low. The bounce stalled at 0.5687, near the 50% retrace of the NY spike fade. Post-NY trade is compressing above a 0.5680 late floor on flat EMAs, with RSI at 46.
Support: 0.56802, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 late floor reopens the 0.5676 NY low, which is also the London-session floor
Acceptance above the 0.5687 bounce high puts the 0.5689 London high back in play
Asia session is typically quiet ahead of NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y); the print could materially shift this read
US-Iran deal headlines and oil moves remain the main swing factor for USD intraday
20:47 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 0.56835
Post-NY range 0.5676–0.5689 after a failed spike higher.
The 14:15 UTC spike through the London high to the 0.5699 spike high fully reversed within the NY session, a false break that ran back to the 0.5676 NY low despite a soft USD. Since then, quiet post-NY trade has held between the 0.5680 late lows and 0.5689. RSI(14) sits near 48 and ATR(14) is about 2.4 pips, so no setup is in play ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5676
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.5680 late lows exposes the 0.5676 ny low; a break there confirms a lower-low below the London low
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC: thin rollover/Asian liquidity into the print may keep the range compressed until then
20:31 UTC
Flat after NY spike reversal · RSI 49 · price 0.56825
Post-NY drift in a tight 0.5680–0.5687 band below the spike high.
The NY spike through the London high at 0.5689 to a 0.5699 spike high, on the back of weak US housing data, was fully rejected and faded to a 0.5676 swing low. The bounce stalled at the 0.5687 post-NY high, just under the 50% retrace of the spike fade. Price is now pinned around flat EMAs near the 0.5680 post-NY low in quiet pre-Asia trade, with ATR compressed to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.56802, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 post-NY low exposes the 0.5676 swing low
Close back above the 0.5687 post-NY high and the 0.5689 London high reopens the 50%+ retrace of the spike fade toward the 0.5699 spike high
Asia session open could break the compressed range ahead of NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC)
US-Iran deal headlines remain a swing factor for USD during Asia hours
20:16 UTC
Range after failed NY spike, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.56818
False break above London high reversed; late-NY compression mid-range.
The NY spike to 0.5699 cleared the London high at 0.5689 but fully reversed to a 0.5676 day low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5687 swing high, a near-50% retrace of the NY spike. Late-NY bars are compressing just above the 0.5680 late NY low with RSI(14) neutral near 46, so the GDT- and soft-USD-driven NZD bid has stalled for now.
Support: 0.56802, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 late NY low exposes the 0.5676 day low
Recovery through the 0.5687 swing high and london high at 0.5689 reopens the ny spike high at 0.5699
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) is the main scheduled risk to this range read
0.5676–0.5689 range after a false break to 0.5699.
The NY push on soft US housing data took out the 0.5689 London high to a 0.5699 spike high and was fully rejected. That false break left a 0.5676–0.5689 range. The bounce off the 0.5676 NY low stalled at the 0.5687 swing high, just under the 50% fib of the spike. Price is now drifting on the 0.5680 late-NY low into the rollover, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5680 late-NY low exposes the 0.5676 NY low
Failure to hold the 0.5676 NY low marks a lower low and breaks the range floor
A reclaim of the 0.5687 swing high and the 0.5689 London high, above the 50% fib, reopens the 0.5699 spike high
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) is the next major input; Asia-session moves before then may be thin
19:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, drifting lower after NY spike · RSI 49 · price 0.56813
Failed break above London high, lower highs inside 0.5676–0.5687.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 spike high, on a softer USD after the housing misses, cleared the 0.5689 London high and late-September highs, then reversed within an hour into a false break down to the 0.5676 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 0.5687 bounce high, near the 50% fib, and price is drifting just above the 0.5680 late NY low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 0.56802, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5676 NY low confirms a lower-low below the post-spike range
A close above the 0.5687 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5689 London high
Holding 0.5680 late NY low keeps the after-NY drift contained inside the range
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Intraday range after rejected NY spike · RSI 49 · price 0.56814
Lower high at 0.5687 under 0.5699 spike top; ranging above 0.5676 session low.
The 14:15 UTC NY spike to a 0.5699 session high, on USD softness after the US housing misses, was fully rejected and faded to a 0.5676 session low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5687 bounce high near the 50% fib. Price is now drifting at 0.5681 just above the 0.5680 round number, after London close, with RSI neutral.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.5690, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5676 session low extends the post-spike lower-high/lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5687 bounce high and the 50% fib reopens the 0.5690 sept high and the 0.5699 session high
Thin Asia session ahead of Wed NZ Q3 CPI (21:45 UTC) may keep price pinned near 0.5680
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, fading after NY rejection · RSI 44 · price 0.56807
Failed break above 0.5690, back inside 0.5679–0.5689 London range.
Asia rallied NZD from 0.5661 into the 0.5689 London high on soft-USD and RBNZ-hike tone. NY's spike through the late-September 0.5690 area to a 0.5699 session high was rejected within the hour and has since given back half the day's rally. Late-NY drift sits just above the 0.5679 London low, RSI(14) ~44, with a post-NY high at 0.5686 capping.
Support: 0.5679, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56864, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5679 london low, and then the 0.5676 ny low, would turn the false break into a lower-low sequence and expose the 61.8% retrace near 0.5676
Recovery above the 0.5686 post-ny high and the 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 session high
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 3.8% YoY) is the next scheduled catalyst; a soft print could unwind the rally
19:03 UTC
Intraday range after failed NY breakout · RSI 52 · price 0.56834
Lower highs since NY high, holding above NY low.
Asia carried the pair from the Asian low at 0.5659 to the London high at 0.5689. In NY, soft US housing data drove a spike to a 0.5699 NY high that faded straight back to the 0.5676 NY low. Late NY is coiling under the 0.5687 swing high near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 and lower highs capping.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56593
Resistance: 0.56868, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5687 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the London high at 0.5689
Failure to hold the NY low at 0.5676 exposes the 61.8% retrace near 0.5674, then the Asian low at 0.5659
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; ranges may stay compressed ahead of the print
0.5677–0.5689 range after a failed NY spike to 0.5699.
Asia carried NZD from the 0.5662 asian base to the 0.5689 london high, and the soft US housing data drove an NY spike to the 0.5699 ny high that fully reversed. Price is back at 0.5684 late in the NY session, on the 38.2% of the overnight leg and flat on EMA20. RSI(14) sits near 48 and demand held the 0.5677 double low twice.
Support: 0.5677, 0.5662
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 ny high
Break below the 0.5677 double low confirms a lower-low after the NY rejection
Loss of 0.5677 exposes the 0.5662 asian base and the 50% retrace
US-Iran deal headlines could reprice USD and shift this read
NZ Q3 CPI, Wed 21:45 UTC, is the next major risk for the range
18:32 UTC
Asia-led uptrend, stalled after NY rejection · RSI 47 · price 0.56841
NY spike reversed; rotating 0.5677–0.5689 late NY.
The Asia-session climb from the 0.5662 asian low carried into an NY spike to the 0.5699 ny high on soft US housing data, then reversed as a false break of the 0.5689 london high. Late in NY, price is rotating between the 0.5677 swing low, which held near the 61.8% fib, and the london high. It sits on the 38.2% level, flat against EMA20 with RSI neutral.
Support: 0.5677, 0.5662
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 ny high and the 0.5700 psych area
Failure to hold the 0.5677 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.5662 asian low
Thin liquidity into the NY close and rollover can distort the current range
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Sideways after a rejected NY spike · RSI 48 · price 0.56841
0.5676–0.5699 range, price mid-range late in the NY session.
After the soft US housing data, the NY session spiked through the London high at 0.5689 to a 0.5699 spike high. The move was rejected and fully unwound to a 0.5676 NY low. Price has since recovered to about 0.5685, stalling near the 38–50% retrace of the spike, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price sitting on flat EMAs.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A close back above the london high at 0.5689 reopens the 0.5699 spike high
Failure to hold the swing low at 0.5679 exposes the 0.5676 ny low
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major event risk and could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Intraday range after rejected spike, recovering mid-range · RSI 53 · price 0.56857
The NY session spike to 0.56987 on soft-USD flow from the US housing misses and Iran headlines was rejected within two bars. That left a false break above the 0.5690 late-September highs, and price slid to a 0.56764 swing low after London close. The late-NY rebound has price back at 0.5686, about 42% into the spike-high-to-swing-low drop, just under the London high at 0.56893, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56893 London high reopens a test of the 0.56987 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.5680 round number exposes the 0.56764 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
US-Iran deal headlines remain a live tail risk for USD at any time
Positioning into NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) may cap follow-through above 0.5690
17:47 UTC
Intraday range after rejected spike, recovering · RSI 55 · price 0.56862
False break above london high at 0.5699, higher lows off 0.5676 swing low.
Early in the NY session price spiked through the 0.5689 london high to the 0.5699 ny high on soft US housing data and Iran-deal headlines. The move was rejected back to a 0.5676 swing low that matched the London-session floor. After London close, higher lows have lifted price back above the ema20 to 0.5686, near the 50% retracement of the NY drop.
Support: 0.5684, 0.5676
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 ny high and the 61.8% retracement near 0.5690
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5684 and the rising-lows line puts the 0.5676 swing low back in play
Close below 0.5676 swing low breaks the intraday range floor
US-Iran headlines remain a live USD driver; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the next major input
17:31 UTC
Range after failed NY spike · RSI 52 · price 0.56857
The NY spike to the 0.5699 spike high, which came on soft USD after weak housing data, failed to hold above the 0.5689 London high. It unwound to 0.5676, where the session low from London was retested and held. Price has since recovered to 0.5686 after London close, about 40% into the spike retrace, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5677
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5689 london high would negate the false break read and expose the 0.5699 spike high
Loss of the 0.5680 pivot low reopens the 0.5677 session low; a break there marks a lower-low below the London–NY range
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for NZD; pre-release positioning may compress the range
17:17 UTC
Range after failed upside spike, lower highs since · RSI 48 · price 0.56836
NY spike above London high fully rejected; lower highs from 0.5699 above a 0.5676 floor.
The NY spike after the weak US housing data cleared the London high at 0.5689 and the late-Sept 0.5690 area to a 0.5699 spike high, but it was fully rejected. Price slid to a 0.5676 NY low, just under the London trough, and is now drifting at 0.5684 under a lower high at 0.5685, with the pivot low at 0.5679 holding. RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips heading into the late-NY lull.
Support: 0.5679, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5685 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; the London high at 0.5689 is the next test
Loss of the 0.5679 pivot low and the 0.5676 NY low marks a lower low and a break of the session range
Recovery stalling near the 38.2% fib of the spike drop at ~0.5685 keeps the rejection read intact
Thin liquidity around the broker rollover can distort the next bars
0.5677–0.5689 range since London open; NY spike to 0.5699 fully reversed.
Weak US housing data and a softer dollar drove an NY spike through the 0.5690 late-Sept high to the 0.5699 spike high. Price then reversed to a new ny low at 0.5676, a false break that returned it to the range in force since London. Price now sits mid-range near 0.5683, pinned on flat EMA20/50, with RSI(14) at 47 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56764
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 london high, which aligns with the 50% level of the spike retrace, reopens the 0.5699 spike high
Repeated failure below 0.5689 keeps the false-break read intact
Break of the 0.5679 london low and the 0.5676 ny low ends the session range to the downside
US-Iran or French fiscal headlines can jolt the USD during late NY hours
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, ~28h out) is the larger range-break catalyst
16:46 UTC
Rally stalled, rolling over after NY spike · RSI 45 · price 0.56793
False break above 0.5690, back to London range lows.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 spike high cleared the 0.5690 late-Sept and London high, but was rejected within two bars despite soft US housing data. That false break has pulled price back to the 0.5676 session low, the 50% fib of the day's rally from the 0.5661 Asia low, with the 0.5684 range top now overhead and RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5676 session low breaks the day's 50% fib and opens the 61.8% at 0.5676-0.5675, then the Asia low at 0.5661
Reclaim of the 0.5684 range top shifts focus back to the 0.5689 London high
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (~29h) could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Short-term down after a failed NY spike · RSI 45 · price 0.56799
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5699 spike high.
The US housing misses lifted NZDUSD through the 0.5690 sept high to a 0.5699 spike high, but the move fully reversed within the hour: a false break. Late in the NY session price has printed lower highs and tagged a 0.5676 ny low, back below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.56764, 0.5674
Resistance: 0.56883, 0.5690, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5676 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5674 asia shelf.
Recovery through the 38.2% fib (0.5685) and the 0.5688 lower high would neutralise the rejection; the sept high at 0.5690 is the cap above.
NZ Q3 CPI, Wed 21:45 UTC (~29h), is the next catalyst for a retest of the 0.5690 sept high.
False break above London high, back to range floor.
The NY spike after the US housing misses ran to the 0.5699 spike high, through the 0.5689 London high and the late-Sept 0.5690 area. It was fully reversed within the hour, a false break. After London close, price sits at 0.5680, the 50% retrace of the Asia-NY leg fib, testing the 0.5679 swing low below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5677
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5677 london low breaks the Asia-to-London higher-low chain and exposes the 61.8% of the Asia-NY leg fib near 0.5676
Recovery through ema20 at 0.5684 and the 0.5689 london high would put the 0.5699 spike high back in play
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (~30h) is the next major catalyst for a test of the late-Sept 0.5690 high; late-NY and Asia trade may stay thin until then
16:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled after failed NY spike · RSI 49 · price 0.56826
False break above 0.5690 reversed back into the London range.
Asia and early London carried NZDUSD up in rising lows to the 0.5689 prior high. Soft US housing data then drove an NY spike to a 0.5699 spike high that was fully rejected inside the hour. Price is back at 0.5682, near the 78.6% retracement of the London-low rally, with the NY low at 0.5680 and the London low at 0.5677 below.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 NY low reopens the 0.5677 London low and the rising-lows trendline
Recovery above the 0.5689 prior high would neutralise the false-break read and refocus on the 0.5699 spike high
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the next scheduled driver; pre-release positioning may compress the range
The Asia-London grind from 0.5660 to the 0.5689 London high extended in NY on the soft US housing data, spiking NZD/USD to a 0.5699 spike high. Within the hour that move was fully retraced, leaving a false break of the London range. Price now sits at the 0.5680 NY low, below ema20 and just under the rising line off the overnight 0.5661 low, with RSI(14) near 46 and EMA50 flat beneath at about 0.5681.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5677 london low ends the overnight higher-low sequence and confirms the break of the rising line
Reclaim of the 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 spike high and the 0.5700 round number
ema20 near 0.5684 is the first area where the rejection is tested
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) is the next scheduled catalyst and could materially shift this read
Asian-session climb, London range 0.5677–0.5689, NY false break to 0.5699 then full reversal.
Soft US housing data at 14:00 UTC sent NZD/USD through the 0.5689 London high to a 0.5699 session high. The move was rejected within an hour, and the pair is back at 0.5684 with demand holding at the 0.5681 NY low, above the 0.5677 London low.
Support: 0.5681, 0.5677
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5681 ny low breaks the rising support from the London low and exposes 0.5677
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
False break above 0.5690, back inside London range 0.5677–0.5689.
Asia ground higher from 0.5661, then London capped at the 0.5689 london high and pulled back to the 0.5677 london low. Early NY spiked through 0.5690 to a 0.5699 spike high on soft US housing data, then fully reversed to a 0.5681 NY low, now near the 78.6% fib with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.56808, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 spike high
Break of 0.5681 ny low exposes 0.5677 london low; losing that ends the intraday higher-low sequence
Positioning into NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) keeps two-way swings around 0.5690 likely
15:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled after NY rejection · RSI 56 · price 0.56865
False break above London high, back inside 0.5677–0.5689 range.
The NY session pushed through the 0.5689 London high to a 0.5699 spike high on broad USD softness after weak US housing data. The move fully reversed within two bars, a false break back into the London range. Price now sits on the 0.5685 spike base near the 61.8% fib of the NY spike, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56.
Support: 0.5685, 0.56775
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5689 london high reopens the 0.5699 ny spike hi
Failure to hold the 0.5685 spike base exposes the 0.5677 london low and rising support from the Asia lows
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) keeps the 0.5690 area sensitive to pre-release positioning
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after NY breakout · RSI 66 · price 0.56915
Broke London range high, higher lows since 11:45 UTC, now retesting breakout.
In NY hours price broke the London high at 0.5689 with a 12-pip bar as the USD stayed soft, clearing the late-September 0.5690 area. The next bar was rejected at the 0.5699 session high just under 0.5700, and price is now back testing the breakout zone near the 38.2% of the breakout leg. RSI(14) has cooled to about 66.
Support: 0.56893, 0.56825, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the London high at 0.5689 turns the breakout into a false break and puts price back in the London-NY range
Break of the rising lows line near 0.5682 exposes the 0.5677 range low
M15 close above the 0.5699 session high puts the 0.5700 round number in play
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC: pre-release positioning at the 0.5690 highs could unwind
14:32 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive leg higher in NY · RSI 77 · price 0.56987
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; London range 0.5677–0.5689 broken to the upside.
During NY hours a single 12-pip bar cleared the London range, taking out the 0.5689 london high and the late-September 0.5690 area to print 0.5699 just under the 0.5700 psych level, on broad USD softness. RSI(14) is near 77 after the impulse. The higher-low chain from the Asian low remains intact along rising support, and the breakout leg's 50% retracement sits on the old london high.
Support: 0.56893, 0.56825, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.5700
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.5689 on a retest would turn the move into a false break back inside the London range
M15 rejection at the 0.5700 psych level, with RSI near 80, would mark the breakout leg as stalling
A break below the 0.5682 ny pivot and the london low at 0.5677 would end the HL chain and the rising support read
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) is the next major risk for this read
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, retesting day high · RSI 60 · price 0.56856
Higher lows since London pullback; NY pressing the 0.56893 day high.
The Asia-to-early-London rally topped at the 0.56893 day high on broad USD softness. The London pullback held 0.56771, near the 38.2% of the leg. The NY session has printed a higher low at 0.56825 along rising support and is retesting the day high at 0.56885, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.56825, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5690 sept high clears the day high and the late-September cap.
Rejection at 0.56893 followed by a break of the 0.56825 higher low would leave a double top at the day high.
A break below the 0.56771 london low breaks the higher-low chain and the fib hold.
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) is the dominant event risk; pre-data caution may cap price near 0.5690.
The Asia-session rally from the 0.5661 asian low topped at the 0.5689 session high at London open. London's pullback held the 0.5677 london low near the 38.2% retrace, and early NY has set a higher low at 0.5679 on soft USD, but the 13:45 UTC bar was rejected at 0.5688, just under the late-September 0.5690 highs.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5677, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 session high clears late-Sept highs and opens the 0.5700 round number
Second failure at 0.5689 leaves a double top in place, with the 0.5679 higher low the first test
Break below the 0.5677 london low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5661 asian low
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is minor but can add to USD softness
Higher low at 0.5677 after Asia-London leg; retesting 0.5689 session high.
The Asia session rally from 0.5661 ran to a 0.5689 session high in early London, carried by broad USD softness as Fed hike bets fade. The pullback held the 0.5677 london low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that leg. NY is now pressing back toward the session high, just under the 0.5690 late-September high, with RSI(14) near 61 and not stretched.
Support: 0.56794, 0.56771
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 session high clears the late-September high and puts the 0.5700 round number in play
Loss of the 0.5680 ny low exposes the 0.5677 london low; a break there ends the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could jolt the USD side within the next bar
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the dominant overhang for NZD positioning
13:31 UTC
Asian-session uptrend stalled; sideways since London open · RSI 49 · price 0.56824
London-NY range 0.5677–0.5689 with a lower high at 0.5686.
The Asian session rally from the 0.5661 asian low topped at the 0.5689 session high near London open, just shy of the 0.5690 late-September highs, as broad USD softness persisted. London and NY have since ranged 0.5677–0.5689. Dips are holding near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian rally, the NY-open bounce stalled at a 0.5686 lower high, and RSI(14) is neutral at 49.
Support: 0.56771, 0.56753, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56861, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 session high clears the late-September 0.5690 area and ends the range read
Failure to hold the 0.5677 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 0.5675, with the asian low at 0.5661 below
Another stall at the 0.5686 lower high extends the lower-highs sequence inside the range
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the main event risk; pre-data positioning may keep the range compressed
13:16 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, ranging since London high · RSI 53 · price 0.56833
0.5677–0.5689 range with lower highs since London open.
Asia carried NZD/USD from 0.5661 to 0.5687 on broad USD softness, and London printed its high at 0.5689, just shy of the 0.5690 late-September highs. The pullback held the london low at 0.5677, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg. The early NY spike to the ny high at 0.5686 was rejected, extending the lower highs, and price sits mid-range at 0.5683 with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 0.56771, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56861, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 london high clears the lower highs and the 0.5690 late-September highs, ending the range read
Failure to hold the 0.5677 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes yesterday's 0.5675 prior high
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q) is the bigger event risk for this range
13:03 UTC
Asia-session uptrend stalled; sideways since London open · RSI 48 · price 0.5681
Lower highs inside a 0.5677–0.5689 range.
NZD climbed from 0.5661 in Asia to a session high at 0.5689 after London opened, just under the late-September highs near 0.5690, on broad USD softness. Since then price has held a range above the 0.5677 session low, with lower highs. The NY-open bounce was capped at the 0.5686 ny high, and RSI(14) is flat near 48.
Support: 0.5677, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5689
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5689 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the late-September highs
Failure to hold the 0.5677 session low exposes the 0.5675 prior high, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact, but could jolt the NY range
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is likely to keep price pinned inside the range beforehand
A soft USD and steady RBNZ hike pricing drove the Asia-to-London rally from 0.5661 to a 0.5689 session high, just shy of the late-September 0.5690 area. Price has since consolidated with lower highs. The London low at 0.5677 held between the 38.2% and 50% fib, and the early-NY spike high at 0.5686 was faded straight back into the range.
Support: 0.56771, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56861, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the late-September 0.5690 area in play
Failure to hold the 0.5677 london low exposes the 50% fib and the Monday NY session high (mon ny high) at 0.5675
Repeated rejection at the 0.5686 spike high keeps the consolidation intact through NY hours
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC is the next major event risk for the pair
Asia rally into London high, then 0.5677–0.5686 consolidation.
NZD/USD climbed from 0.5661 through the Asia session to a 0.5689 session high in early London, tagging the late-September highs as soft USD lifted the pair. Since then it has held a 0.5677–0.5686 band above the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally. Into the London-NY transition, the latest bounce off the london low has price back near 0.5684.
Support: 0.5677, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 session high clears the late-September highs and puts the 0.5700 round number in view
Failure to hold the 0.5677 london low exposes the prior high at 0.5675 and the 50% fib near 0.5675
NY open USD flows could break the consolidation; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the next major catalyst
Lower-high drift inside 0.5677–0.5684 after early-London peak.
The Asia rally from 0.5659 cleared yesterday's 0.5675 prior high and peaked at a 0.5689 session high in early London, near the late-September highs, as USD softness persisted. Since then price has drifted lower in a 0.5677–0.5684 band. The London low at 0.5677 sits just under the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally, and RSI(14) is near 48 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.56771, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5684 lower high ends the post-London drift and reopens the 0.5689 session high / 0.5690 late-September highs
Failure to hold the 0.5677 London low exposes yesterday's 0.5675 prior high and the 50% retracement of the Asia rally near 0.5674
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the next major catalyst; pre-release trade may keep the band tight
12:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 41 · price 0.56792
Lower highs since London open, testing 38.2% retracement.
NZDUSD climbed through the Asia session from the 0.5661 asian low to a 0.5689 session high around London open on broad USD softness. It was rejected just shy of the 0.5690 sept highs. Since then London has printed a chain of lower highs capped near the 0.5683 lower high, and price at 0.5679 is sitting on the 38.2% retracement and the 0.5677 london low as NY approaches.
Support: 0.56771, 0.56754, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.5683, 0.56893, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5677 london low extends the pullback toward the 0.5675 fib 50%
Close above the 0.5683 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Retake of the 0.5689 session high puts the 0.5690 sept highs back in play
Failure at the fib 50% exposes the 0.5661 asian low
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift this read in the first hour of NY
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk for this pair
Lower highs compressing onto flat session lows near 0.5678.
The Asia-to-London rally off the 0.5661 asia low, helped by broad USD softness, was rejected at a 0.5689 london high just shy of the 0.5690 late-September highs. Since the drop during London, price has compressed under lower highs and the 0.5684 range top. It is now sitting on the 0.5678 session low, the 38.2% retracement of the asia-london leg, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below EMA20.
Support: 0.56782, 0.56747, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5678 session low breaks the compression and exposes the 0.5675 prior high, which is also the 50% fib.
Failure to hold 0.5675 leaves the 0.5661 asia low as the next reference.
Close above the 0.5684 range top and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 0.5689 london high.
US ADP and housing starts/permits at 12:15–12:30 UTC, around NY open, could jolt the USD side.
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk for the pair.
0.5679–0.5684 range with lower highs after pre-London breakout.
NZD cleared the Asian high at 0.5680 just before London open on broad USD softness. It printed a 0.5689 session high, just short of the late-September 0.5690 highs. Since the 09:00 UTC drop, price has compressed in a 0.5679–0.5684 band with lower highs, and is now sitting on the Asian high and the 38.2% retrace.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5675, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5689
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5679 (asian high) exposes the 50% retrace at 0.5675, then the asian low at 0.5661
Close above the 0.5684 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5689 session high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) could break the range around the NY open
Lower highs compressing into 0.5679 after London breakout.
London open broke the Asian high near 0.5680 on broad USD softness and ran to a 0.56893 session high, a rejection just shy of the late-September 0.5690 highs. Price has since slipped back to retest the 0.5679 Asian high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally. Lower highs at 0.5688 and 0.5684 are compressing into it, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.5679, 0.56754
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5679 (asian high) turns the retest into a failed breakout and exposes the 50% fib at 0.5675
Close above the 0.5684 lower high breaks the descending-highs line; the 0.56893 session high and 0.5690 are the next cap
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) into the NY open could shift the USD side of this read
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC keeps the 0.5690 area in focus
11:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 0.56805
Lower highs below session high, coil at 38.2%.
Asia carried NZD from 0.5661 through yesterday's 0.5675 prior high on a softer USD. London tagged a 0.5689 session high just shy of the 0.5690 late-September highs, then pulled back to the London low at 0.5679, the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally fib. Since then, lower highs at 0.5684 have compressed price into a 0.5679–0.5684 coil below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56842, 0.56893
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5679 London low opens the 0.5675 prior high, which coincides with the 50% level of the Asia rally fib
Close above the 0.5684 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.5689 session high and 0.5690 back in play
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side into the NY open
Asia-London HL chain from 0.5661; tight 0.5679–0.5684 consolidation.
NZD climbed through Asia from 0.5661 on broad USD softness and steady RBNZ hike pricing, printing a session high at 0.5689 in the first hour of London before easing. The 09:00 UTC dip held the london low at 0.5679, near the 38.2% fib, and price has since been compressed under a 0.5684 range cap with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5684 range cap reopens the 0.5689 session high and the 0.5690 late-September highs
Failure to hold the london low at 0.5679 breaks the HL chain and exposes the monday high at 0.5675
Loss of the Asia trendline from the 0.5661 low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC around NY open could expand the narrow ~3-pip ATR range
London rejection below 0.5690, lower high inside 0.5679–0.5684 chop.
Soft USD carried NZD through Asia and past the Asian range high in early London. The pair set a session high at 0.56893 and was rejected just under the 0.5690 late-September highs. The London low at 0.5679 held on the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg, and price is now chopping below a 0.5684 lower high under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56758
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.5679 opens the asia shelf at 0.5676 and the 50% retrace
Close back above the 0.5684 lower high puts the session high at 0.56893 and the 0.5690 late-Sept highs back in play
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC are second-tier; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the main risk to this read
Asia rally to 0.5689, shallow pullback holding 38.2% fib, lower highs since.
Broad USD softness carried NZD from the 0.5661 Asia low through Monday's 0.5675 prior high. Early London stalled at the 0.5689 session high, just shy of the 0.5690 late-September high, and the 09:00 UTC dip held the 0.5679 pullback low at the 38.2% fib. Mid-London, price is compressing near 0.5683, flat against EMA20 and capped by a 0.5684 lower high.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5689
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5684 lower high reopens the 0.5689 session high and 0.5690
Break of the 0.5679 pullback low exposes the prior high at 0.5675, which lines up with the 50% fib
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC are second-tier but land at the London-NY transition
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the main catalyst for a decisive 0.5690 test
Asia breakout above prior high, London pullback holding 38.2%.
Asia carried NZDUSD from 0.5661 through yesterday's 0.5675 prior high on broad USD softness, and London extended to a 0.5689 session high, just shy of the 0.5690 late-September highs. The 09:00 UTC dip to the 0.5679 london low found demand at the 38.2% retracement, but a lower high at 0.5688 and RSI near 48 show momentum stalling mid-London.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56878, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5679 london low exposes the 0.5675 prior high retest
Close above the 0.5689 session high clears the lower high and the 0.5690 late-Sep highs
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side into NY open
NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the larger risk to this structure
09:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after rejection · RSI 46 · price 0.56807
Asian HH/HL chain broken; London lower high below the session high.
Broad USD softness carried NZDUSD from the 0.5661 Asian low through the Asian range high. Early London set a session high at 0.56893, just under the 0.5690 late-September high, and was rejected there. The pullback to the 0.56789 London low held at the 38.2% retracement, and the 0.56842 lower high now caps the bounce.
Support: 0.56789, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.56842, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56789 London low opens the fib 50% near the 0.5675 Monday high
Reclaim of the 0.56842 lower high puts the 0.56893 session high and 0.5690 back in play
US ADP and Housing Starts at 12:15–12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
09:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 57 · price 0.5682
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; first London dip holding at 38.2% fib.
Asia ground higher from the 0.5661 asian low and broke yesterday's 0.5675 prior high before London, helped by soft USD and steady RBNZ hike pricing. London printed a 0.5689 session high just under the 0.5690 late-September highs. The 0.5679 london low then held at the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline, with price sitting just under the ema20 near 0.5684.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5675, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5689
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5689 session high and 0.5690 September highs extends the HH chain
Break of the 0.5679 london low and rising trendline exposes the 0.5675 prior high and 50% fib
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 0.5684 keeps the pullback in play
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the USD side during NY hours
09:17 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 55 · price 0.56801
Lower highs off 0.5689, 0.5684 shelf broken.
Asia carried NZD/USD from the 0.5661 Asia low to 0.5687 on broad USD softness. London printed a 0.5689 session high just shy of the late-September 0.5690 highs, then made lower highs, and the 09:00 UTC bar broke the 0.5684 shelf. Price is sitting on the London low at 0.5679, the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) cooled to 55.
Support: 0.56789, 0.56747, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5684 broken shelf negates the range break
Failure to hold 0.5679 London low exposes yesterday's prior high at 0.5675 (50% of the Asia rally fib)
Loss of 0.5675 puts the 0.5661 Asia low back in view
US Housing Starts, Building Permits and Pending Home Sales 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
Session high at 0.5689 remains the cap below the 0.5690 late-September highs ahead of Wednesday's NZ Q3 CPI
HH/HL leg from Asia, tight consolidation under the session high.
Broad USD softness carried NZDUSD through the prior-day high at 0.5675 in Asia. The pre-London push cleared the Asian high near 0.5680 and printed a session high at 0.5689, just shy of the late-September 0.5690 highs. Early London has stalled in a 5-pip box above the 0.5684 pullback low, with RSI(14) easing to ~61.
Support: 0.56839, 0.56799, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56893
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5684 pullback low opens a retest of the asian high at 0.5680, near the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg
An M15 close above the 0.5689 session high clears the late-September 0.5690 highs
A slide back below the prior high at 0.5675 would invalidate the Asia breakout
US housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) could shift the USD side of the read
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the main catalyst for the 0.5690 test
HH/HL chain from the 0.5661 Asia low; shallow pullback under the session high.
Asia climbed in a steady HH/HL chain and cleared Monday's high at 0.5675. London open then pushed to a 0.5689 session high on broad USD softness, just shy of the late-September 0.5690 highs. Price is now holding 4–5 pips below the top, with RSI(14) easing to ~66 and the 0.5684 pullback low intact.
Support: 0.56839, 0.56821, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56893, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5689 session high and the 0.5690 late-September high opens the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5682 London low breaks the HL chain and exposes Monday's high at 0.5675, near the 50% level of the Asia-London rally fib
US housing data at 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC is the larger catalyst
Higher lows through Asia and London open, first pullback off the session high.
NZD climbed off the 0.5661 Asia low and cleared the 0.5675 prior high, adding a breakout leg at 0.5682 before the London open. That leg stalled at a 0.5689 session high, just under the 0.5690 late-Sept highs. Price is now easing in early London and pressing the Asia trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to ~62.
Support: 0.5682, 0.56754, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56893
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5682 breakout area breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 0.5675 prior high, near the 50% fib
Close back above the 0.5689 session high clears the late-Sept 0.5690 highs
Sustained trade below the Asia trendline shifts the read from trend to range
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC during NY hours could shift this read; NZ Q3 CPI follows Oct 21 21:45 UTC
Loss of the 0.5661 Asia low unwinds the full overnight rally
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 72 · price 0.5686
HH/HL chain through Asia, prior-day high cleared, pausing under 0.5690.
A steady HH/HL climb from the 0.5661 Asia low cleared yesterday's 0.5675 prior high as a softer USD and fading Treasury yields lifted antipodeans. The pre-London push stalled at a 0.5689 session high, just under the 0.5690 late-Sept highs. RSI(14) is near 72, price is riding the Asia trendline and the 0.5682 pullback low from the London open is holding.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5675, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 session high and 0.5690 late-Sept highs opens the 0.5700 round number
Close below the 0.5682 pullback low and the Asia trendline shifts focus back to the 0.5675 prior high
Loss of 0.5675 would put the 0.5661 Asia low back in view and break the HH/HL chain
US housing data from 12:15 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 75 · price 0.56878
HH/HL chain from the 0.5661 Asia low, Asian range broken higher.
Asia ground higher off 0.5661 and cleared the Asian high at 0.5680 at the European open. Early London has printed a session high at 0.5689, just under the 0.5690 sept highs, with yesterday's prior high at 0.5675 well below. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not extreme, and a soft USD keeps the bid intact.
Support: 0.56821, 0.56799, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5690 sept highs clears the late-Sept cap
Break below the 0.5682 pullback low ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.5680 Asian high retest
Loss of the asia trendline (~0.5683) would shift the read toward range back to 0.5675 prior high
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could move the USD leg during NY hours
07:47 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 73 · price 0.56868
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5661 Asia low; Asian range broken higher at London open.
Broad USD softness carried NZDUSD through Monday's prior-day high at 0.5675 during Asia. London open then cleared the Asian high at 0.5680, printing a session high at 0.5688 just under the 0.5690 late-Sept high. The higher-low chain is intact, with the London low at 0.5682 as the nearest swing; RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme for a trend leg.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5680, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5690
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5690 late-Sept high would cap the leg just above the 0.5688 session high
An M15 close back below the 0.5680 asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5675 prior-day high, which lines up with the 50% fib, breaks the higher-low chain
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) at the NY open could shift USD tone
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 69 · price 0.56854
HH/HL chain through Asia, broke above prior day high pre-London.
A steady Asia climb cleared the prior day high at 0.5675 and the 0.5680 breakout level pre-London, with the soft USD (DXY below 102.00) behind the move. That leg printed a session high at 0.5687, just under the late-Sept high at 0.5690. Early London is holding above the 0.5682 pullback low, RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.56821, 0.56798, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56874, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5682 pullback low breaks the HL chain and puts the 0.5680 breakout level and 38.2% fib in focus
Acceptance above the 0.5687 session high and 0.5690 sept high extends the breakout; a rejection there would mark a lower-high risk
Loss of the prior day high at 0.5675 (near the 50% fib) would undo the breakout read
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone into NY; NZ Q3 CPI on Oct 21 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 69 · price 0.56841
HH/HL chain from Asia low; Monday high broken, first pullback forming.
The Asian session climbed in a steady HH/HL sequence from the 0.5661 Asia low. It cleared Monday's 0.5675 prior high and printed a 0.5687 session high in the London-NY... rather, at the Asia-London transition, just shy of the 0.5690 sept high. The first London bars are holding a 0.5682 pullback low on rising support, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s as a heavy USD below DXY 102.00 keeps a floor under the pair.
Support: 0.5682, 0.56747, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56874, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5682 pullback low and rising support opens a retest of the 0.5675 prior high, which sits near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib
Acceptance above the 0.5687 session high puts the 0.5690 sept high in play; rejection there leaves a lower-high risk
Loss of the 0.5675 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and points back toward the 0.5661 Asia low
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone in the NY session
HH/HL chain through Asia; breakout above prior-day high, first wick rejection at 0.5687.
With the USD heavy and DXY back below 102.00, the Asia-session rally from the 0.5661 asian low cleared Monday's 0.5675 prior high. It extended to a 0.5687 session high into the London open, where the first upper-wick rejection printed just shy of the 0.5690 sept high. RSI(14) is near 69, not stretched, and the asia trendline sits around 0.5680, with the 38.2% of the asia rally at roughly 0.5678.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5690, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5690 sept high clears the late-Sept ceiling, with 0.5700 psych the next reference
Break of the asia trendline near 0.5680 and a close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 0.5661 asian low
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC during the NY session could jolt the session range; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 0.56857
Higher highs/higher lows off the 0.5661 Asia swing low; London open broke the Asian range high.
Asia ground out higher highs and higher lows from the 0.5661 swing low. London open then broke the 0.5680 Asian high and cleared yesterday's 0.5675 prior high on a soft USD backdrop, as Fed-hike bets faded. The session high at 0.5686 sits just beneath the 0.5690 Sept high, with RSI(14) near 79 running hot.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56747, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56863, 0.5690
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5690 Sept high leaves 0.5686 as a session high under resistance; a sustained break exposes fresh territory
M15 close back below the 0.5680 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break, with the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib near 0.5677 next
Loss of the 0.5675 prior high breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 73 · price 0.56844
HH/HL chain off 0.5661 Asia low, above prior-day high.
The Asia session built a steady HH/HL chain off the 0.5661 Asia low. It broke yesterday's 0.5675 prior high and printed a 0.5685 session high just ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 73. Price sits 5 pips under the 0.5690 sept high, with a soft USD and the China GDP beat underpinning the leg.
Support: 0.56765, 0.56747, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56853, 0.5690, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5690 sept high opens the 0.5700 round number
A break of the 0.5677 swing low and the rising trendline snaps the HH/HL chain. That puts the 0.5675 prior high, near the 38.2% fib, in focus
Rejection at the 0.5685 session high during the London open would mark the 0.5685–0.5690 area as supply
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Higher lows since the 0.5661 Asia low, prior high at 0.5675 broken.
Asia session built a higher-low chain off the 0.5661 Asia low, cleared Monday's 0.5675 prior high and printed a fresh session high at 0.5682 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 71. Soft USD after the China GDP beat is carrying the move toward the 0.5690 sept high flagged in the digest.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56824, 0.5690, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
M15 close under the Asia trendline (~0.5678) or the 50% level of the Asia rally fib (~0.5672) shifts the read to a pullback
0.5690 sept high, then 0.5700 psych: areas to watch for rejection or break into London open
US ADP 12:15 UTC and housing starts 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
06:02 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, RSI warm but not stretched · RSI 68 · price 0.56778
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5661 Asia pivot; prior high cleared.
The Asia session climbed steadily from the 0.5661 Asia pivot. It cleared yesterday's London prior high at 0.5675 and printed a session high at 0.5680 just before London open, with the soft USD (DXY back under 102.00) providing the tailwind. RSI(14) is near 68 with a ~3-pip ATR, and price is consolidating just under 0.5680 with 0.5690 (the late-Sept high) the next reference.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56707, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56799, 0.5690
What it said to watch
Holding 0.5675 on any retest keeps the prior high break intact; a close back below it marks a false break
An M15 close above the 0.5680 session high opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
A drop through the 0.5671 fib 50% breaks the Asia higher-low chain
US Housing Starts and Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, Monday's prior high cleared.
Late Asia session: price has stair-stepped from the 0.5661 Asian low through Monday's 0.5675 prior high and printed a session high at 0.5680, with RSI(14) near 76. The climb tracks broad USD softness with DXY back under 102.00. Price is now pressing the 0.5680 round number ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56707, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56798, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the Asian rising trendline and the 0.5671 higher low (fib 50%) would end the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 0.5680 session high leaves the 0.5690 sept high as the next reference
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
Asia session built a clean higher-low chain off the 0.5661 asia low and cleared Monday's prior high at 0.5675, printing a session high at 0.5679, with China's GDP beat and a softer USD behind it. RSI(14) near 73 is warm but not stretched, and the 0.5690 late-Sept high from the digest sits about 11 pips overhead.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56707, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56791, 0.5690
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.5675 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below turns it into a false break
M15 close below the 0.5671 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the Asia rising trendline
0.5690 late-Sept high: area to watch for rejection or break into London open
US housing starts and building permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Higher-low chain from 0.5661; Monday high cleared in late Asia.
Asia session pushed above the 0.5675 Monday high to a session high at 0.5678. The digest links the move to softer USD (DXY back below 102.00) and the China GDP beat, with higher lows stepping up from the 0.5661 swing low through the 0.5671 Asia HL. RSI(14) sits near 74 and bar ranges are compressing at the highs ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5671, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5678, 0.5690
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5675 Monday high would turn the breakout into a false break.
Failure at 0.5671 Asia HL, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, breaks the higher-low chain; the 0.5661 swing low is the level below.
Clearance of the 0.5678 session high opens the 0.5690 Sept high.
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event.
Asia session built a steady higher-low chain off the 0.5661 asia low and cleared Monday's 0.5675 prior high to a 0.5677 session high, with China's GDP beat and a soft dollar underpinning the Kiwi. RSI(14) is near 73 and bar ranges are compressing into the London open, with price now testing the Asian trendline.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56711, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56771, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the Asian trendline and the 0.5671 fib 38.2 exposes the 0.5661 asia low
Clearance of the 0.5677 session high leaves the 0.5690 sept high as the next reference
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk for this structure
HH/HL chain through Asia session, prior-day high broken.
The Asia session built a steady HH/HL climb along a rising trendline from the 0.5661 swing low. It cleared the 0.5675 prior high, which had capped the NY session, and printed a 0.5677 session high, with China's GDP beat underpinning the antipodean bid. Bars are compressing just above the breakout (RSI(14) ~76, ATR ~3 pips) as the market holds positions ahead of Thursday's NZ CPI.
Support: 0.56747, 0.5670, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5675 prior high turns the breakout into a false break inside yesterday's range
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.5670 asia pivot breaks the HH/HL chain; 0.5661 swing low below
0.5690 sept high is the next cap above the session high
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the NY-session read; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the larger risk
Higher-low chain through Asia, marginal break of prior-day high.
Asia session climbed from the 0.5661 asia low in a clean higher-low chain and edged through Monday's 0.5675 prior high to a 0.5677 session high, helped by softer USD and the China GDP beat. RSI(14) is near 74 and the last three bars have stalled just above the break, so the move is still only a few pips beyond the prior high.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56707, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5671 swing low and the asia trendline breaks the higher-low chain
0.5690 sept high is the next reference above the 0.5677 session high
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC is the bigger risk to this read
Asia session built a HH/HL chain off the 0.5661 swing low and cleared Monday's NY prior high at 0.5675, printing a session high at 0.5677. RSI(14) is near 74 and ATR is about 3 pips. The move is a grind rather than an impulse, with China's GDP beat and a soft USD in the background and NZ CPI still ahead.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56707, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5675 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.5671 higher low ends the HH/HL chain; 0.5661 swing low below
0.5690 sept high is the next resistance overhead
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; US Housing Starts at 12:30 UTC
Asia session ground higher in a clean HH/HL sequence off the 0.5661 asian low. It cleared Monday's NY prior high at 0.5675 and printed a session high at 0.5677, with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR around 3 pips as the market holds ahead of NZ CPI. The 0.5690 sept high is the next reference above.
Support: 0.56747, 0.56707, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56767, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5675 prior high would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5671 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; 0.5661 asian low below
Rejection or break at the 0.5690 sept high, the late-Sept cap flagged in the digest
London open and US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z could reset the session range
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45Z, f/c 0.8% QoQ) is the larger event risk for this structure
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 67 · price 0.56736
Asia higher-low chain inside 0.5659–0.5675 24h range.
Late Asia session has stepped up in higher lows off the 0.5661 Asia low and is now testing the 0.5675 prior high from London/NY hours yesterday. The 24h range runs from the 0.5659 NY low to that top, and RSI(14) at 67 is not stretched. The China Q3 GDP beat and firmer risk tone are lifting NZD while the market waits on Wednesday's NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56707, 0.56614, 0.56587
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 prior high breaks the 24h range and opens the 0.5690 late-Sept highs
Rejection at 0.5675 and a break of the 0.5671 micro low would leave a double top at the range high
Loss of the 0.5661 Asia low (61.8% of the Asia swing fib sits near 0.5667) ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5659 NY low
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read as NY trading begins
Mid-Asia session, price climbed off the 0.5661 Asia HL into a retest of yesterday's NY-session prior high at 0.5675. It stalled a pip short of that level, with RSI(14) cooling to 58. The digest ties Kiwi firmness to the China Q3 GDP beat and pre-CPI positioning, while a rebound in US yields caps gains.
Support: 0.56662, 0.56614, 0.56587
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 prior high opens the path to the 0.5690 sept high
Fib 61.8 at 0.5666 is the first pullback area to watch for demand
Loss of the 0.5661 asia hl breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5659 ny low
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z could jolt the NY session; NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45Z is the larger event risk
Higher lows through Asia inside Monday's 0.5659–0.5675 range.
Mid-Asia session, the pair has stacked higher lows off the 0.56614 Asian low and retraced about 78.6% of Monday's NY decline, putting price at 0.5672, 3 pips under the 0.56747 prior high. RSI(14) is near 67 with ATR under 3 pips, typical of the quiet pre-CPI tape, while China's GDP beat keeps the risk tone supportive.
Support: 0.56614, 0.56587
Resistance: 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.56747 prior high breaks Monday's range top and opens the 0.5690 sept high
Rejection at 0.56747 would leave a lower high inside the range
Break below 0.56614 asian low ends the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 0.56587 ny low
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z are the next scheduled USD risk; NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45Z) keeps ranges compressed
02:46 UTC
Range with higher lows, pressing session highs · RSI 63 · price 0.56681
Asia range 0.5661–0.5670 inside NY's 0.5659–0.5675 band.
Asia session spiked to the asia high at 0.5670, dipped to the asia low at 0.5661 and is now back retesting the top, still capped below the 0.5675 ny high set during NY hours. NZD holds near three-week highs on the China GDP beat and a softer USD, but ranges remain tight at about 3 pips ATR ahead of Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56614, 0.56587, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747, 0.5690
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5675 ny high breaks the range and opens the late-sep high near 0.5690
Failure to hold the 0.5661 asia low puts the 0.5659 ny low and the 0.5652 london low back in play
A break below the rising lows from the ny low into the asia low invalidates the higher-low read
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side during NY hours
NZ Q3 CPI in about 43h keeps ranges compressed into the print
02:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 61 · price 0.56683
Asia HL at 0.5661, retesting Asian high under Monday's NY high.
The Tokyo-hour bid on the China GDP beat carried NZDUSD back to the 0.5670 Asian high after a higher low at 0.5661. Price is sitting at the 61.8% retracement of Monday's NY drop from the 0.5675 NY high to 0.5659, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR at about 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.56614, 0.56593
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5670 Asian high exposes the 0.5675 NY high
Losing the 0.5661 higher low returns price to the 0.5659 Asian low and the rising lows line
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side
NZ Q3 CPI in ~43h is pinning ranges into the print
Lower high at 0.5670 under the 0.5675 prior high; higher low at 0.5661.
Monday's rally from the 0.5652 prior low ran to a 0.5675 prior high in early NY, helped by the China Q3 GDP beat. The Treasury-yield rebound then faded it to a 0.5659 NY low. Asia session tagged 0.5670 and was rejected, printing a lower high, and price is rotating mid-range between the 0.5661 Asian low and the 0.5670 Asian high.
Support: 0.56614, 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 Asian high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 0.5675 prior high
Loss of the 0.5661 Asian low exposes the 0.5659 NY low, then the 0.5652 prior low
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC, with US yields capping the upside
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is the larger catalyst for a range break
01:46 UTC
Sideways, lower high forming · RSI 50 · price 0.56635
Range 0.5659–0.5675, Asian high capped below prior high.
The Asia session push to the 0.5670 Asian high was rejected below Monday's 0.5675 prior high, leaving a lower high. Price has slipped back to 0.5663, near the 50% fib of Monday's rally and on flat EMAs. NZD is holding its China GDP-driven gains, but firmer US yields and positioning ahead of NZ CPI are keeping the range tight.
Support: 0.5659, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 Asian high reopens a test of the 0.5675 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5659 range low exposes the 0.5652 london low and Monday's rally fib 61.8% near 0.5660
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21:45 UTC is likely to keep ranges compressed until the print
Lower high at 0.5670 under Monday's 0.5675 cap; Asia session holding 0.5661-0.5670.
Monday high at 0.5675 capped price three times during the NY session before a slide to the NY low at 0.5659. Early Asia rejected 0.5670, a lower high, as the China GDP lift faded against firmer US yields. Price is pinned to EMA20 at the 50% retrace of Monday's rally, with the Asia low at 0.5661 underneath, RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.56614, 0.56587
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 Asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5675 Monday high
Failure to hold the 0.5661 Asia low exposes the 0.5659 NY low and the 61.8% retrace near 0.5660
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC, then NZ Q3 CPI Wed 21:45 UTC, could shift this read
Lower high at 0.5670 under Monday's 0.5675 peak; inside 0.5659–0.5670 range.
Monday's London leg from the 0.5652 london low topped at the 0.5675 monday high, then slipped to the 0.5659 ny low as US yields rebounded. Early Asia spiked to the 0.5670 asia high and was rejected, putting a lower high under the falling trendline and leaving price at the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 ny low breaks the range low and puts the 0.5652 london low in view
Close above the 0.5670 asia high clears the trendline and reopens the 0.5675 monday high
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the event risk that could reset this range
00:46 UTC
Intraday range, Asia lifting off lows · RSI 64 · price 0.56672
Asian range broken higher, holding near 50-61.8% of the NY fade.
The first hour of Tuesday's Asia session broke the 0.5659–0.5664 Asian range to a 0.5670 session high. That retraced into the 50–61.8% fib zone of Monday's NY fade from the 0.56747 Monday high to 0.56587. The pullback found demand at the old Asian high, extending the rising-lows trendline as NZD holds its three-day rebound into Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56593
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 session high reopens the 0.56747 Monday high
Close back below the 0.5664 Asian high and the rising-lows trendline would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 0.5659 Asian low puts the 0.56587 NY low back in play
US housing starts at 12:30 UTC and NZ Q3 CPI on Wed at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Range, early Asia bounce stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.56651
Asia high rejection, pullback to midpoint of the overnight leg.
Tuesday's Asia session lifted NZD/USD off the 0.5661 asia base to 0.5670. That asia high met an immediate rejection, and price is back at the 50% fib of the move and sitting on the EMAs, still inside Monday's 0.5659 ny low to 0.5675 monday high range. A China GDP beat and firmer risk tone are holding the Kiwi up, while higher US yields cap it.
Support: 0.56612, 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 asia high reopens the 0.5675 monday high
Loss of the 0.5661 asia base exposes the 0.5659 ny low, then the 0.5652 london low
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC are the next USD input
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC) is the main catalyst; pre-data positioning may keep ranges tight
00:02 UTC
Post-rally range, edging higher into Asia · RSI 66 · price 0.56663
Late-NY range 0.5660–0.5665 after a 69% pullback of the London rally.
London swept the Asian low at the 0.5652 london low and rallied to a 0.5675 session high in NY, helped by the China GDP beat. Rising US yields capped the move, and the pullback held the 0.5659 ny low near the 61.8–78.6% zone of the London rally fib. Price has ranged 0.5660–0.5665 since late NY and is now pressing the range top into early Asia on thin ATR.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56587, 0.56516
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56747
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5670 psych puts the 0.5675 session high back in play
Slip back below the 0.5660 range low reopens the 0.5659 ny low, then the 0.5652 london low
Further rebound in US Treasury yields could cap the push above the range