0.5685–0.5705 range since NY, price testing range top.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.5683 and NY pushed through the 0.5695 prior cap to a 0.5704 session high. The soft NZ Q3 CPI print knocked the pair down to a 0.5685 CPI low, but that dip has been fully retraced. Price is now retesting the 0.5704–0.5705 session high for a third time, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56955, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 session high breaks the post-CPI range top
Failure to hold the 0.5700 round number returns focus to the 0.5695 prior cap and the 0.5685 CPI low
A third rejection at the session high would leave a flat top over the 0.5685–0.5705 range
RBNZ speaker reaction to the CPI miss, or China data during the Asia session, could shift this read
0.5685–0.5704 range since NY afternoon, post-CPI higher lows.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8% f/c) knocked NZD/USD from the 0.5704 session high to a 0.5685 CPI low after the NY close. That was a brief false break below the 0.5690 prior base. Post-CPI higher lows have since carried price back above the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop to 0.5697 in the early Asia session, just under the 0.5700 round number.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5700 round number reopens a test of the 0.5704 session high
Failure back below the 0.5690 prior base breaks the post-CPI HL chain and exposes the 0.5685 CPI low
Asia session repricing of RBNZ Oct 28 hike odds after the CPI miss could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.5704, post-CPI range 0.5687–0.5696 below 0.5700.
Soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8% f/c) knocked the pair off the 0.5704 double top. The release bar tagged the 0.5685 cpi low, near the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY advance. Early Asia trade is holding a 0.5687–0.5696 range below the 0.5700 round number, with RSI(14) near 43 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5687, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5685 cpi low and the 61.8% fib opens the 0.5672 prior-day low
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number would neutralise the CPI rejection; the 0.5704 double top caps above
A break of the 0.5696 range top or the 0.5687 post-cpi low ends the current Asia range
RBNZ speakers reacting to the CPI miss could extend the repricing in Asia hours
Lower high off 0.5704 session high, ranging 0.5685–0.5696 after CPI.
The NY-session break above the 0.5700 psych level stalled at the 0.5704 session high, tested twice. The soft Q3 CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8%) then pushed price to a 0.5685 cpi bar low, close to the 61.8% retrace of the London rally. Early Asia session trade is holding the 50% retrace near 0.5689, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) at 37 and the 0.5687 ny swing low just underneath.
Support: 0.5687, 0.5685
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.5704
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5696 cpi bar high and 0.5700 psych reopens a test of the 0.5704 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5687 ny swing low and 0.5685 cpi bar low clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 0.5683 Asian range high
RBNZ speaker reaction to the CPI undershoot during the Asia session could extend the post-CPI move
Failed hold above 0.5700, now testing 50% retrace of the day's rally.
Soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% y/y vs 3.8% f/c) knocked the pair off the 0.5704 day high early in the Asia session. The release bar was rejected at the 0.5700 round number and probed the 0.5685 cpi low. Price is now holding near the 50% retrace of the 0.5672 asian low to day high rally, below both EMAs, with the 0.5696 london high capping.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5685 cpi low (61.8% retrace) exposes the 0.5672 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5696 london high and the 0.5700 round number would undo the false break read
RBNZ speaker reaction and any trim in Oct 28 hike pricing after the CPI miss could extend the move
Thin liquidity after the broker rollover gap keeps intraday ranges unreliable
22:32 UTC
Pullback from 0.5704 day high, momentum turned lower · RSI 41 · price 0.56883
Lower high under 0.5696 after break of 0.5691 double-top neckline.
The London-NY advance from the 0.5672 Asian low stalled at a double top at 0.5704, and the daily open gapped price lower. The soft Q3 CPI print (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) then produced a cpi low at 0.5685, near the 61.8% fib. Early Asia now has price sitting at the 50% retracement of that leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and the 0.5696 cpi high capping bounces.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.56999, 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5685 cpi low exposes the Asian high at 0.5683 and the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold 0.5683 reopens the path toward the 0.5672 Asian low
Recovery through the 0.5696 cpi high and a 0.5700 gap fill would weaken the double top read
Post-CPI repricing of RBNZ Oct 28 hike odds during the Wellington/Asia session could extend the move
Double top at 0.5704, retracing toward the base of the NY breakout.
The NY breakout through the 0.5696 range top stalled in a double top at 0.5704. The soft NZ Q3 CPI print (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) then pushed price back below the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5685 cpi low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian low rally. Early Asia session now has price back inside the old 0.5687–0.5696 band, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.5685, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.5704
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5696 range top reopens the 0.5700 round number and 0.5704 double top
Failure to hold the 0.5685 cpi low exposes the 0.5672 asian low
Post-CPI swaps repricing of RBNZ Oct 28 hike odds could extend the move
Thin liquidity after rollover; CPI and rollover wicks are inflating ATR
22:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, rolling over post-CPI · RSI 42 · price 0.56923
Double top at 0.5704, retracing toward Asian-to-NY rally midpoint.
London-NY rally from the 0.5672 asian low stalled at a 0.5704 session high, which printed twice as a double top before the round number gave way. The Q3 CPI miss (3.7% y/y vs 3.8% f/c) took price to a 0.5685 cpi low near the 61.8% retracement, and early Asia session trade is now pinned at the 38.2% fib around 0.5692, with the 50% fib at 0.5688 just below.
Support: 0.5688, 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number undercuts the double top and false break read
Failure at the 0.5685 cpi low opens the 0.5672 asian low
Post-CPI repricing of RBNZ hike odds in thin Asia session liquidity could extend the swing; US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC
21:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 39 · price 0.56883
Double top at 0.5704 session high, neckline 0.5691 broken.
The rally from the 0.5672 Asian low ran into a double top at the 0.5704 session high. Price gapped lower at the rollover and slipped through the 0.5691 neckline as the NZ Q3 CPI bar printed. It now sits on the 50% rally fib near 0.5688, just above the 0.5687 swing low, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5687, 0.5684
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5700, 0.5704
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5687 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5684 and extends the double-top unwind
A reclaim of the 0.5691 neckline and the 0.5700 round number would negate the rollover in this read
A break back above the 0.5704 session high voids the double top
NZ Q3 CPI (f/c 3.8% y/y) is landing in the current bar on thin early-Asia liquidity, so range expansion beyond the 5-pip ATR is likely to reshape structure
HH/HL from Asian low; tight NY range 0.5691–0.5704 into CPI.
London broke above the Asian range and NY extended to a 0.5704 session high. That high has capped three times since, and the 18:45 UTC drop to the 0.5691 swing low was fully recovered. Price sits just under the 0.5700 round number into NZ Q3 CPI, after a thin rollover spike to the 0.5687 prior low.
Support: 0.56907, 0.5687, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) is minutes away; current ATR of ~4.6 pips understates the likely event range
M15 close above the 0.5704 session high breaks the triple cap and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 0.5691 swing low (near the 38.2% fib) opens the 0.5687 prior low
Loss of 0.5687 prior low exposes the 50% fib and the 0.5672 asian low, unwinding the day's HH/HL chain
Double top at 0.5704 after NY breakout; price testing 0.5691 neckline.
London broke the Asian range and NY extended to 0.5704, where a double top capped price. The rollover bar gapped back below the 0.5700 round number into the 0.5691 neckline, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-NY rally. NZD positioning is firm into tonight's Q3 CPI with about 80% of an RBNZ hike priced.
Support: 0.5691, 0.5688, 0.5685
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5704
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) can override this structure within one bar
A sustained break below the 0.5691 neckline confirms the double top; the fib 50% at 0.5688 and the london base at 0.5685 are next
An M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number negates the pullback; a clear break of the 0.5704 double top resets the high
Rollover-bar prints (low 0.5687) are likely distorted by wide spreads
HH/HL chain from Asia low; shelf below 0.5704 session high.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5685, and NY cleared the 0.5695 breakout lvl at 16:30 UTC on the soft-USD backdrop. A 19:00 UTC sweep to the 0.56907 swing low, just above the 38.2% fib, was bought back to retest the 0.57044 session high. Price now sits on the 0.5700 round number with ATR(14) near 3.4 pips, which reads as pre-event compression ahead of NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5695, 0.56907, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y vs RBNZ 3.9%) could materially shift this read; expect ATR to expand sharply
M15 close above the 0.57044 session high extends the HH chain beyond the double tag
Failure to hold the 0.5695 breakout lvl exposes the 0.56907 swing low and 38.2% fib
Close below the rising lows line near 0.5689 breaks the HL sequence and puts the 50% fib at 0.5688 in play
20:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 60 · price 0.57036
Higher lows since Asia; 0.5700 break retested and held.
London lifted out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range and NY broke the 0.5700 round number at 16:15 UTC, helped by the soft USD drift and firm RBNZ hike pricing. An 18:30 UTC flush tagged the 0.5691 retest low near the 38.2% fib and was fully reclaimed. Price is now compressing just under the 0.5704 session high, which has capped twice, ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56907, 0.5687
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, ~80% hike priced) could materially shift this read; a soft print carries the larger downside risk
M15 close above the 0.5704 session high extends the breakout leg
Close back below the 0.5700 round number exposes the 0.5691 retest low
Loss of the 0.5687 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since Asia; tight consolidation just above the 0.5700 round number.
London lifted NZD out of the 0.5672–0.5683 Asian range, and NY cleared the 0.5700 round number at 16:30 UTC. The 18:45 UTC drop to a 0.5691 spike low, near the 38.2% fib, was bought back within two bars, and price now consolidates under the 0.5704 session high ahead of NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56907, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; ~80% RBNZ hike priced leaves a soft print as the bigger downside risk
M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number undoes the breakout
Three failures at the 0.5704 session high would leave a flat top; a close above it extends the uptrend
Break of the 0.5691 spike low and 0.5687 NY low would end the higher-low chain and the rising support
20:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 59 · price 0.5704
Higher lows since the Asia low; breakout above the London range now capped at 0.5704.
NY hours broke the 0.5690–0.5696 London range and price has stalled three times at the 0.5704 session high. The late-NY flush to the 0.5691 flush low held the 38.2% fib of the Asia-low rally and rising support, and was fully retraced back above 0.5700 psych on a soft USD into NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56907, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5704 session high breaks the triple-tap cap
Loss of 0.5700 psych reopens the 0.5691 flush low and rising support
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a break of the 0.5687 swing low would end the higher-low chain
HH/HL chain from Asian low; 0.5700 breakout retested and held.
NZD/USD held a 0.5687–0.5696 band through London and early NY before breaking the 0.5700 round number at 16:30 UTC, with the soft USD tone carrying into the NZ CPI release. An 18:45 UTC flush to a 0.5691 swing low tagged the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-session high move and was reclaimed above 0.5700 within three bars. The 0.5704 session high is capping into the Asia open.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56907, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, ~80% RBNZ hike priced) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number reopens the 0.5691 swing low
Close above the 0.5704 session high extends the HH/HL chain
Break of the 0.5687 NY low and the rising trendline from the Asian low undoes the breakout structure
19:47 UTC
Uptrend, holding near highs · RSI 61 · price 0.57025
HH/HL chain from Asian low; break above London range, retested.
Late NY hours took NZDUSD out of the 0.5687–0.5696 London range to a 0.5704 session high, with the firm pre-CPI NZD tone meeting a soft USD. A sharp drop to a 0.5691 spike low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asian-low leg, was absorbed. Price recovered back above the range top and the 0.5700 psych handle within two bars.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56957, 0.56907
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, RBNZ proj 3.9%). A soft print is the main threat to the breakout.
An M15 close below the 0.5691 spike low negates the breakout and reopens the old range.
Acceptance above the 0.5704 session high extends the HH chain. Failure there leaves a 0.5691–0.5704 pre-CPI box.
A break of the rising support from the Asian low shifts structure to a lower-low sequence.
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled after rejection at 0.5700 · RSI 51 · price 0.56965
HH/HL chain from the Asian low interrupted by a false break above 0.5700.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.5683 and NY pushed through the round-number 0.5700 to a 0.5704 session high. A 9-pip drop at 18:45 UTC sent price back under the handle in a false break. The 0.5691 spike low held at the 38.2% level of the day rally fib, and price sits just below EMA20 with RSI(14) at 51 into late NY.
Support: 0.56907, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) can override this intraday structure; a soft print puts the 0.5687 ny low in focus
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number negates the false break; acceptance above the 0.5704 session high resumes the HH chain
Loss of the 0.5691 spike low breaks the 38.2% day rally fib and exposes the 0.5687 ny low near the 50% level
Higher lows since the Asian low; 0.5700 break reversed, now testing the rising trendline.
London lifted NZD/USD out of the 0.5672–0.5683 Asian range. A late-NY push through the 0.5700 round number topped at the 0.5704 session high. A 9-pip rejection bar then sent price back to 0.5694, the fib 61.8 of the 0.5687–0.5704 leg, and onto the rising trendline from the Asian low. RSI(14) has cooled to about 49 ahead of NZ Q3 CPI, against heavy RBNZ hike pricing.
Support: 0.56936, 0.5687, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; ~80% hike priced leaves a soft print more room to move
M15 close below the 0.5687 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Recovery and hold above the 0.5700 round number would reinstate the break; the 0.5704 session high caps above
Failure below the asian low at 0.5672 would unwind the full London leg
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; late-NY breakout above 0.5700 holding.
London broke the 0.5672–0.5683 Asian range higher. Price then held a 0.5687–0.5695 range through the London-NY transition before a late-NY range break cleared the 0.5700 round number, with the session high at 0.5704. Bars have compressed above 0.5700 ahead of tonight's NZ CPI, with RSI(14) at 74, warm but not extreme, as firm RBNZ hike pricing keeps NZD supported.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56945, 0.5687
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a miss risks unwinding the move off the Asian low
M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number puts price back toward the 0.56945 range top
Loss of the 0.5687 range low and the rising support line breaks the intraday HL chain
Clearance of the 0.5704 session high extends the breakout leg
HH/HL chain from Asian low; tight 0.5700–0.5704 hold after NY breakout.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.5683, and NY pushed through the 0.5695 london high and the 0.5700 round number at 16:15 UTC on a softer USD after the weak housing data. Price is now holding a 4-pip band just under the 0.5704 session high, with the rising support line from the Asian low and the 0.5687 ny low below.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56957, 0.5687
Resistance: 0.57042
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; ~80% RBNZ hike pricing leaves more room to the downside on a miss
M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number turns the breakout into a false break, with the 0.5695 london high next
A break of the 0.5687 ny low and the rising support line ends the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.5704 session high extends the breakout structure
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating above 0.5700 after a late NY breakout · RSI 66 · price 0.57029
Higher lows from the Asian low; London-NY range top cleared, tight band 0.5701–0.5704.
London broke above the Asian range, then the 0.5684–0.5696 range ran through the London-NY transition. Late NY cleared the 0.5696 range top and the 0.5700 psych level, printing a session high at 0.57035 ahead of tonight's NZ Q3 CPI, with markets already pricing about 80% odds of an RBNZ hike. Price is holding a tight band just under the high with RSI(14) near 66, and the higher lows chain from the 0.5672 Asian low to the 0.5687 NY low is intact.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56957, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.57035
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5700 psych level puts the breakout under pressure
A return under the 0.5696 range top would mark a false break and reinstate the range
Failure to clear the 0.57035 session high keeps price boxed in the post-breakout band
A break of the higher lows trendline near 0.5692, then the 0.5687 NY low, ends the intraday HL chain
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; with a hike mostly priced, a soft print carries more downside risk
Higher lows from Asian low; 0.5687–0.5696 London range broken higher.
Price climbed from the 0.5672–0.5683 Asian range through London, held a 0.5687–0.5696 range most of the NY session, then broke the range top after London close to a session high at 0.5704. The push came on a soft USD into tonight's NZ Q3 CPI; price is holding just above the 0.5700 round number, RSI(14) near 66, not stretched.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56957, 0.56872
Resistance: 0.57035
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5696 range top would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 0.5687 range low breaks the rising support and the 61.8% retrace of the Asian low to session high leg
Rejection at the 0.5704 session high with a slip under the 0.5700 round number would stall the breakout
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; ATR of ~3.4 pips will not hold through the release
17:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fresh highs late NY · RSI 67 · price 0.57021
Higher lows since the Asia low, London-NY range broken higher.
NZD lifted off the 0.5672 Asia low through London, then held a 0.5687–0.5696 range into NY before breaking the range top and clearing the 0.5700 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 67. The move fits firm RBNZ hike pricing and a soft dollar ahead of tonight's NZ CPI. Price is pressing the 0.5702 session high, and the 50% retrace of the Asia low–session high leg sits near the 0.5687 NY low.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5695, 0.5687
Resistance: 0.57023
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; ~80% RBNZ hike pricing leaves more room for a miss to unwind the rally
Slip back below the 0.5695 range top turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 0.5687 NY low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Hold above the 0.5700 psych handle keeps the session high at 0.5702 as the next test
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout above the London range · RSI 64 · price 0.5700
Higher-low chain from the Asian low, London range top broken in the NY session.
London cleared the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range at the open. The pair then held a 0.5687–0.5696 range for most of the session. Shortly after London close it broke the range top, tagging a 0.5702 session high, and is now holding the 0.5700 handle on firm RBNZ hike pricing and a soft USD. Rising lows from the 0.5672 Asian low remain intact, and RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 0.5696, 0.5687, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5702
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5696 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.5687 range low breaks the rising lows sequence
Acceptance above the 0.5702 session high extends the NY breakout leg
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a miss risks unwinding the rally toward the asian low
Higher lows off Asian low; 0.5695 range top broken.
After London close, NZD/USD broke the 0.5695 range top that capped London and NY. It pushed through the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5702 session high, with RSI(14) near 67. The higher-low chain off the 0.5672 Asian low and the 0.5687 NY low remains intact along rising support, with firm RBNZ hike pricing into tonight's CPI behind the bid.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56955, 0.5687
Resistance: 0.57017
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y vs RBNZ 3.9%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.5695 range top would mark the 0.5700 push as a false break
Loss of the 0.5687 NY low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.5702 session high extends the breakout leg
London breakout from Asian range, now a tight 0.5687–0.5696 range through NY.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the Asian range from the 0.5672 Asian low, helped by firm RBNZ hike pricing and a soft USD after weak US housing data. Since late London it has held a 0.5687–0.5696 range. The session high at 0.5696 capped twice, and the 0.5687 NY low was bought within one bar. RSI(14) sits near 47, ATR is small, and price is pinned just under EMA20 ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5687, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) is the main risk to this range read
M15 close above the 0.5696 session high puts the 0.5700 round number in play
Failure to hold the 0.5687 NY low exposes the 0.5684 london low and the 38.2% retrace of the Asian-low rally
A break of the rising lows line would end the higher-low sequence from London
16:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled into a range · RSI 46 · price 0.56901
London breakout above Asian range, now ranging 0.5687–0.5696.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5685 in a 24-pip leg up from the 0.5672 asia low. Since midday NZD has held a 0.5687–0.5696 range, with the range top capping three times and a 15:00 UTC dip to the range low bought back. Late-NY trade is drifting below EMA20 into tonight's NZ Q3 CPI, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) at about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.5687, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5687 range low exposes the 0.5684 pullback low and the 38.2% retracement of the London leg
M15 close above the 0.5696 range top opens the 0.5700 round number
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 0.5672 asia low back in focus
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, flattening into a range · RSI 52 · price 0.56923
London breakout above the Asian range high, then a tight 0.5687–0.5696 range through NY with flat highs and rising lows.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5685 and ran from the 0.5672 Asian low to a 0.5696 session high. Price has since held a 0.5687–0.5696 range for about five hours, with three rejections at the session high. The 15:00 UTC dip to the range low held near the 38.2% fib, and NZD has stayed firm on RBNZ hike pricing ahead of tonight's CPI.
Support: 0.5687, 0.56853, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5696 session high exposes the 0.5700 round number
Close below the 0.5687 range low breaks the rising lows and opens a retest of the 0.5685 Asian high
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5672 Asian low would undo the whole London leg
15:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 0.56873
London rally out of Asian range, NY range 0.5689–0.5696 now breaking lower.
London lifted NZD out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range on firm RBNZ hike pricing and a soft USD. Price then held a 0.5689–0.5696 range through NY, with rejection at the 0.5696 session high. The latest bar has slipped below the 0.5689 range floor into the London-NY transition, testing the ema50 near 0.5686 and the 38.2% of the Asia-NY rally fib.
Support: 0.5686, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.56957
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5689 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5684 pullback low (50% fib) exposes the 0.5672 asian low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; a soft print is the larger risk with ~80% hike priced
London broke above the Asian range; tight 0.5689–0.5696 consolidation since 10:30 UTC.
London lifted price out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range, building a higher-low chain off the 0.5684 swing low to a session high at 0.5696. NZD has been firm into tonight's Q3 CPI against a soft USD. Since 10:30 UTC the move has stalled into a 3-pip-ATR range below the 0.5700 round number, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and price slipping under EMA20 into the London-NY transition, while still holding above the rising support line.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56842
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5689 range low breaks the consolidation and the rising support line, exposing the 0.5684 swing low near the 50% fib of the London rally
M15 close above the 0.5696 session high reopens the 0.5700 round number
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; with ~80% of an RBNZ hike priced, a soft print carries the larger move risk
London HH/HL chain, now a tight 0.5689–0.5696 range under 0.5700.
London broke above the Asian range (0.5672–0.5683) and printed higher lows up to a 0.5696 session high, in line with NZD's firm tone ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI. Since late London, price has compressed in a 0.5689–0.5696 range below the 0.5700 round number, with the swing low at 0.5684 near the 50% retrace of the Asian low to session high move.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5696 session high and the 0.5700 round number would extend the HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.5689 range low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5684 swing low
Loss of 0.5684 reopens the Asian low at 0.5672
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian range; NY compressing in a tight band, higher lows intact.
The London rally ran from the 0.5672 asian low through the 0.5685 asian high to a 0.5696 session high. Early NY has compressed between the 0.5689 swing low and that high, with rising support intact and RSI(14) near 60. NZD is holding firm on RBNZ hike pricing ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5689, 0.5685, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5689 swing low breaks rising support and exposes a retest of the 0.5685 asian high
Acceptance above the 0.5696 session high opens the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5685 asian high puts a deeper London rally fib retracement toward the 0.5672 asian low in play
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; with a hike largely priced, a soft print carries more downside risk
Higher lows since London open; compressing 0.5689–0.5696 below prior high.
London took out the Asian high at 0.5685 at the open. Higher lows then carried the move off the Asian low to a 0.5696 session high, extending NZD's four-day run into tonight's CPI. Early NY is compressing between the 0.5689 range low and the session high, just under the 0.5699 prior high and 0.5700 handle, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56853, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5689 range low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the asian high at 0.5685
Close above the 0.5696 session high puts the 0.5699 prior high / 0.5700 handle in play
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print brings the 0.5672 asian low back into view
HH/HL chain since London broke the Asian range high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5683 and built higher lows into the NY open. The session high at 0.5696 sits just below Tuesday's prior high at 0.5699, and highs are compressing at 0.5694–0.5696 with RSI(14) neutral near 57. NZD is holding firm ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI, with ~80% of an RBNZ hike already priced.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56842, 0.56826
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5699 prior high and 0.5700 psych level extends the London HL trend
Break of the 0.5689 swing low ends the higher-low chain; 0.5684 pullback low is next
A return below the 0.5683 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the London breakout
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asian low; London broke above Asian range, gains stalling under 0.5696.
London lifted NZD/USD out of the 0.5672–0.5683 Asian range on firm RBNZ hike pricing. Since then it has built higher lows at 0.5684 and 0.5689, with a session high at 0.5696. Early NY trade is compressing just under Tuesday's prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56842, 0.56826
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5689 higher low and rising trendline breaks the HL chain and exposes the 0.5684 swing low
Clearance of the 0.5696 session high and 0.5699 prior high puts the 0.5700 round number in play
Failure back inside the Asian high at 0.5683 would mark the London breakout as a false break
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) with ~80% RBNZ hike priced could materially shift this read; a miss carries more downside risk
HH/HL chain off the Asian low; compressing below the session high.
London broke out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range, with the asian low at 0.56716 as the base, and NZD stayed firm into tonight's Q3 CPI. Price printed higher lows at 0.56842 and 0.56886 into the NY open. The session high at 0.56956 is stalling just under the prior high at 0.56987 and the 0.5700 handle, with RSI(14) easing to 59 and ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56886 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.56842 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace of the asian low–session high leg
Close above the 0.56987 prior high clears the way to the 0.5700 round number
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
Meta Q3 earnings tonight are a USD risk-sentiment driver after the NY close
London lifted price off the 0.56716 asian low and through the 0.56853 asian high, then built higher lows along rising support to a 0.56956 session high, just shy of Tuesday's 0.56987 prior high. The NZD firmness comes on RBNZ hike pricing into tonight's CPI. At the London-NY transition RSI(14) has cooled to about 63, and the latest bar left an upper wick at the high.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56853, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56956, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56886 swing low breaks the rising support and the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.56956 session high brings the 0.56987 prior high and 0.5700 round number into view
Loss of the 0.56853 asian high returns price to the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 65 · price 0.56949
Higher-high/higher-low chain since London broke the Asian range.
London broke the Asian range top at 0.5683 and has stair-stepped higher. A string of higher lows (0.5684 pullback low, 0.5689 higher low) has carried price to 0.5695 in the London-NY transition, just under Tuesday's 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 round number. RSI(14) is near 65, firm but not stretched, as NZD holds its bid into tonight's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56842
Resistance: 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5699 prior high and 0.5700 round number extends the HH/HL chain
Break of rising support and a close below the 0.5689 higher low ends the stair-step sequence
Loss of the 0.5684 pullback low would put the price back toward the top of the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, ~80% RBNZ hike priced) could materially shift this read
London broke above the 0.5683 Asian high from the 0.5672 low, printing higher lows at 0.5684 and 0.5689 on firm RBNZ hike pricing into tonight's CPI. The 0.5694 session high has capped twice in late London as NY comes in. RSI(14) sits near 60 with ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56842, 0.56826
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5689 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 0.5684 higher low in play
Close above the 0.5694 session high opens the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 handle
Loss of the 0.5683 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 62 · price 0.56913
Higher lows since Asian low, London broke above Asian range.
From the 0.56716 Asian low, London lifted NZDUSD through the Asian range high and printed a chain of higher lows at 0.56848 and the 0.56886 swing low. That rally fib frames any pullback. Price is now testing the 0.5694 session high in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) at 62 and firm RBNZ hike pricing behind the four-day run.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56848, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5694 session high opens the 0.56987 prior high and the 0.5700 round number
Break below the 0.56886 swing low and the rising trendline at the 0.56848 higher low would end the higher-low chain
Loss of the higher-low support points back toward the 0.56716 Asian low, the base of the London rally fib
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks unwinding the run
12:16 UTC
Uptrend since Asia low, pressing session high · RSI 64 · price 0.56928
Higher highs and higher lows through London, above the Asian range.
London broke above the asian high near 0.5685 and has printed a higher-low chain at 0.5684 and 0.5689. Price is pressing the 0.5694 session high into the NY open, with NZD firm into tonight's CPI. The 38.2% fib of the asian low-to-high leg aligns with the asian high, while the prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 round number sit overhead.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56845, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56938, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5694 session high opens the 0.5699 prior high and 0.5700 round number
Break of the 0.5689 higher low and the uptrend line shifts the read to consolidation toward the asian high
Loss of 0.5685 (asian high, 38.2% fib) puts the asian low at 0.5672 back in view
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read after NY close
Higher highs and higher lows since London broke the Asian range.
London broke above the Asian range top near 0.5685 at the open. Price retested it at the 0.5684 retest low, then printed a session high at 0.5694, and is now holding a 0.5689 higher low with RSI(14) a neutral 57. Firm RBNZ hike pricing has kept NZD supported into tonight's CPI, with the prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 round number just overhead.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56938, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5694 session high exposes the 0.5699 prior high and 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5689 higher low, then the 0.5684 retest low, breaks the London HH/HL sequence and points back toward the 0.5672 Asian low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read, with a soft print the larger risk given ~80% hike pricing
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low, pausing under the session high.
London broke above the Asian range from the 0.5672 low and has stepped up to a 0.5694 session high, with the higher low at 0.5689 holding into late London. The prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 round number sit just above as NZD stays firm ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56893, 0.56842
Resistance: 0.56938, 0.5700, 0.56987
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5694 session high puts the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 round number in play
Failure to hold the 0.5689 higher low shifts focus to the 0.5684 swing low, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the London leg fib at risk
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 60 · price 0.56914
Broke above Asian range at London open; HH/HL chain capped by session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5685 and printed higher lows at 0.5684 and 0.5689. The pair is still below the 0.5694 session high and the 0.5699 Tue high, just under the 0.5700 round number. Firm RBNZ hike pricing ahead of tonight's CPI is keeping NZD supported.
Support: 0.56886, 0.56853, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56938, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5689 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.5685 asian high
Acceptance above the 0.5694 session high brings the 0.5699 tue high and 0.5700 round number into play
Loss of the asian low at 0.5672 would reverse the London breakout
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print carries more downside risk
11:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 0.56891
London HH/HL chain above Asian range; rejection at 0.56938.
London broke out of the Asian range (0.56716–0.56826 asian low/high) and printed higher highs to a 0.56938 session high. The last full bar rejected the high back to 0.5689, leaving yesterday's NY prior high at 0.56987 untested. The 0.56842 swing low still anchors the HH/HL chain, with RSI(14) cooling to 61 and ranges compressing (ATR ~3 pips) into tonight's NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56938, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56842 swing low breaks the London HH/HL chain and exposes the asian high / 50% fib near 0.56826
Acceptance above the 0.56938 session high brings the 0.56987 prior high and 0.5700 round number into play
A return inside the Asian range toward the 0.56716 asian low would turn the London breakout into a false break
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y vs RBNZ 3.9%) could materially reset this intraday read
11:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending in London · RSI 68 · price 0.56925
Higher highs and higher lows since the 05:15 UTC low; Asian range high cleared.
London broke above the Asian range high near 0.5685. It is building higher lows off the 0.5672 Asian low and the 0.5684 swing low, with the latest leg tagging 0.5694 and RSI(14) near 68. Price now sits just under yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 round number, as NZD stays firm on RBNZ hike pricing into tonight's CPI.
Support: 0.56901, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Reaction at the 0.5699 prior high / 0.5700 round number: rejection or a close above extends the London leg
M15 close back below the 0.5690 London high and rising trendline shifts the read to a pullback within the range
Failure to hold the 0.5684 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward the 0.5672 Asian low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
London broke above Asian range; HH/HL chain intact.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.56716–0.56826 Asian range. It has printed a higher high at the 0.56917 session high above the 0.56842 london low, with RSI(14) firm near 68 but not stretched. Yesterday's NY high at 0.56987 and the 0.5700 round number sit overhead as NZD firms on RBNZ hike pricing into tonight's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56917, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56842 london low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.56826 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, toward the 0.56716 asian low
Rejection at the 0.56987 ny high / 0.5700 round number would cap the London breakout
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks unwinding the rally
London break of Asian range, tight consolidation 0.5684–0.5690.
London lifted NZDUSD off the 0.5672 Asian low and through the Asian range top near 0.5685. Price has since coiled between the 0.5684 range low and the 0.5690 session high, with dips holding well above the fib 50% at 0.5681 and ATR(14) under 3 pips as NZD stays firm into tonight's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56809, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5690 session high exposes yesterday's NY prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 handle
Failure to hold the 0.5684 range low and the rising trendline from the Asian low opens a retracement toward the fib 50% at 0.5681
A move back under 0.5681 would put the London breakout at risk and bring the 0.5672 Asian low into view
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the current range reflects pre-CPI compression
NY open and US-Iran / oil headlines are the nearer-term USD drivers that could break the range before CPI
Asian range broken higher, now holding just above the former range top.
The London session broke the Asian high near 0.5685 and ran from the 0.5672 asian low to a 0.5690 session high. Since then price has been consolidating at the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) cooling to ~62 and NZD holding firm into tonight's Q3 CPI. The pullback low at 0.5684 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5683 sit just below; Tuesday's rejected NY spike left the prior high at 0.5699 overhead.
Support: 0.56842, 0.5683, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 0.5683 and the pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range
A break of the 0.5690 session high opens the path to the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 psych handle
Failure to hold the asian low at 0.5672 negates the London breakout
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read with ~80% RBNZ hike priced
London broke the Asian range high, now a tight consolidation above it.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range to a session high at 0.56901. The pullback held the 0.56842 pullback low just above the old Asian high, and mid-London price is coiling in the mid-0.568s with ATR(14) under 3 pips as positions square up ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.56853, 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.56842 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Close above the 0.56901 session high exposes yesterday's NY prior high at 0.56987 and the 0.5700 round number
Break of the 0.56716 Asian low would mark a full reversal of the London leg
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY / 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read; ranges may compress into the release
London breakout above Asian range, shallow retest held, tight consolidation 0.5684–0.5690.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range to a London high at 0.56901. The pullback stalled at 0.56842, the retest low near the old range top and between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. Price is now compressing below the high in mid-London as positions are squared ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56901 London high opens yesterday's NY prior high at 0.56987 and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.56842 retest low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.56716 Asian low below
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY / 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read; ranges may compress into the print
London break of Asian range, higher low at 0.5684.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5683 and ran to a 0.5690 session high. The first dip held at 0.5684, about the 38.2% fib of the Asian-low-to-London-high leg, leaving a higher low with RSI(14) near 72. Price is holding below 0.5690 as positioning squares up ahead of tonight's NZ Q3 CPI, with yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high still overhead.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5690 session high opens the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5684 pullback low puts the 0.5683 asian high and 38.2% fib in focus
Return below the asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break, exposing the 0.5672 asian low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY, 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; shallow pullback off London high.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5672–0.5683 Asian range to a 0.5690 london high. Price is now holding near 0.5686, around the 23.6% retrace of that leg, with a 0.5684 pullback low beneath. RSI(14) is cooling to ~66 as the move stalls short of yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high, with positions squaring ahead of NZ Q3 CPI tonight.
Support: 0.56842, 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5690 london high reopens the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 round number
Break of the 0.5684 pullback low exposes the 0.5683 asian high, near the 38.2% retrace
Loss of the 0.5672 asian low would erase the London range break
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ, 3.8% YoY) could materially shift this read
Asian range break above 0.5685, HH/HL chain from 0.5672, pulling back to breakout.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the Asian range, rallying from the 0.5672 Asian low to a 0.5690 session high that capped twice. The pullback is retesting the old 0.5685 Asian high, with the 38.2% fib of the rally near 0.5683 just below and RSI(14) cooling to ~67, as traders square up ahead of NZ Q3 CPI. Above sits yesterday's NY spike prior high at 0.5699.
Support: 0.5685, 0.5683, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5685 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 38.2% fib at 0.5683 next
Failure at the 0.5683 fib exposes the 0.5672 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5690 session high opens the 0.5699 prior high and 0.5700 handle
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
London break above Asian range, now retesting the Asian high.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range to a 0.5690 session high, with traders squaring up ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI. Price is now retesting the Asian high at 0.5685 as RSI(14) cools from the low-70s, and Tuesday's NY spike prior high at 0.5699 sits just under the 0.5700 round number.
Support: 0.56853, 0.56809, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 0.5685 turns the breakout into a false break, with the fib 50% at 0.5681 next
Break of the session high at 0.5690 exposes the prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the London rally line and a move back toward the asian low at 0.5672 would unwind the London move
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 77 · price 0.5688
London break of Asian range, HH/HL chain since 04:45 UTC low.
London cleared the 0.5683 Asian high at the open and ran to a 0.5690 London high, an 18-pip London leg off the 0.5672 Asian low. It is now pausing at yesterday's 0.5685–0.5688 cap with RSI(14) near 77, as the market squares up ahead of tonight's NZ CPI.
Support: 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5683 Asian high would turn the London breakout into a false break
A break through the 0.5690 London high exposes the 0.5699 prior high and the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 50% retrace of the London leg near 0.5681 puts the 0.5672 Asian low back in view
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY, 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off Asian low, trading above Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5683 and ran to a 0.5690 session high, unwinding the Asia dip to the 0.5672 Asian low as traders square up before NZ CPI. RSI(14) near 75 is hot but not stretched, and the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high leg sits at the old Asian high.
Support: 0.56826, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Asian high 0.5683 (38.2% fib) holding on a retest keeps the HH/HL chain intact
M15 close back below 0.5683 returns price to the Asian range
Clearance of the 0.5690 session high exposes yesterday's NY-open prior high at 0.5699 and the 0.5700 handle
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% YoY / 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, pressing resistance · RSI 77 · price 0.56879
V-recovery with HH/HL chain since 04:45 UTC; Asian high cleared at London open.
London open extended the rebound off the 0.5672 swing low. Price cleared the Asian high at 0.5685 and is now testing 0.5688, where the prior high lines up with the 61.8% retrace of Tuesday's NY drop from the 0.5699 tue high. RSI(14) is near 77 after five straight higher closes, and the trendline from the swing low through the 0.5677 higher low still underpins the move as NZD firms ahead of tonight's CPI.
Support: 0.56853, 0.56768, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56885, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5688 prior high opens the path to the 0.5699 tue high and 0.5700 psych
Slip back below the 0.5685 asian high turns the London break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5677 higher low breaks the trendline and the HH/HL chain
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, RSI hot · RSI 77 · price 0.56867
London open broke the Asian range high; higher lows since 04:45 UTC.
NZDUSD slid to an Asian low at 0.5672 on pre-CPI caution, then ran through the Asian high at 0.5683 from the London open. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the fade from Tuesday's 0.5699 tue high, just under the 0.5689 prior high, with RSI(14) near 77.
Support: 0.56826, 0.56768, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56885, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5689 prior high opens the path back to the 0.5699 tue high and 0.5700
A close back inside the Asian range below 0.5683 turns the London breakout into a false break
A break of the 0.5677 higher low on the rising trendline ends the intraday HL chain and exposes the 0.5672 Asian low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; positioning makes a soft print the larger-move risk
07:32 UTC
Rebound off Asian low within pullback from 0.5699 · RSI 68 · price 0.56829
Lower highs from 0.5699 NY spike; higher-low chain since 0.5672 Asian low.
Yesterday's NY spike to 0.5699 was rejected just under 0.5700, and price bled lower into the 0.5672 Asian low as pre-CPI caution set in. London open has lifted the pair to a 0.5684 session high near the 38.2% fib of that drop, with higher lows riding a rising trendline and RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.56768, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56839, 0.56852, 0.56883
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5685 fib 50% exposes the 0.5688 lower high
Break of the trendline near 0.5677 stalls the rebound; failure to hold the 0.5672 asian low confirms a fresh lower-low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Short-term rebound within a downswing · RSI 62 · price 0.56809
HH/HL chain off Asian low, testing Asian high.
London open is extending a higher-low rebound off the 0.5672 Asian low into the 0.5683 Asian high, which lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the move from yesterday's 0.5699 NY spike. That spike to the prior high was rejected outright. Asia stayed compressed in a 0.5672–0.5685 band as caution built ahead of NZ CPI, with ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 0.56768, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56868, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5683 asian high and 38.2% retrace opens the 0.5687 swing high and 50% level
Failure to hold the 0.5677 higher low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 0.5672 asian low back in play
0.5699 prior high is the NY-session rejection point and caps the window
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5672–0.5683 below yesterday's 0.5699 rejection; London open inside range.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high was rejected and gave way to a slow Asia grind lower, with pre-CPI caution capping the Asian high at 0.5683 and the Asian low printing at 0.5672. London opens with price back above the ema20 near 0.5676, sitting at EMA50, and RSI(14) neutral at 51. That is about a 21% retrace of the 0.5699–0.5672 move, with ATR at only about 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.5676, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5683 asian high, also the 38.2% retrace, opens a move back toward the 0.5699 prior high
Loss of ema20 and a break of the 0.5672 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print carries the larger downside risk
Lower highs since NY rejection at 0.5699; Asian range 0.5672–0.5683, small rising lows off the base.
The NY spike to 0.56987 failed just under 0.5700 and set a lower-high sequence overnight as pre-CPI caution capped NZD. Asia carved a 0.56716–0.56826 range. Price is now bouncing off the Asian low into the 23.6% fib near 0.5678, sitting on the EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral around 52 into London open.
Support: 0.56738, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56826 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% fib / 0.5685 in play
Loss of the 0.56738 overnight low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.56716 Asian low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) is the main event risk; a soft print carries the larger downside reaction given ~80% RBNZ hike pricing
Lower highs off NY high; tight base 0.5672–0.5676 pre-London.
The NY session spike to the 0.56987 NY high, just under 0.5700, met rejection and fully unwound. Asia then broke yesterday's 0.56764 prior low and printed an Asia low of 0.56716, with a lower high at 0.56826, as pre-CPI caution set in. Price is now basing in a 4-pip band just under the old prior low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) compressed to about 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56764, 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.56764 (prior low) would turn the Asia break into a failed move and shift focus to the 0.56826 lower high.
A close above the Asia lower-highs trendline from 0.56853 would break the Asia lower-high sequence.
Failure to hold the 0.56716 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5670 round number.
London open could expand the compressed range. The 50% retracement of the NY high fib sits near 0.5685.
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read. A soft print carries the larger downside risk given ~80% RBNZ hike pricing.
NZD/USD saw rejection at the 0.56987 prior high just under 0.5700 in Tuesday's NY session. It has since ground lower through the Asia session as pre-CPI caution set in, slipping under the prev day low at 0.56764 and printing a 0.56716 Asian low. Late in Asia, price is compressing at 0.5672–0.5676 beneath a line of lower highs from the 0.56826 Asian high, which capped near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) ~38, ATR(14) ~2.7 pips.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56764, 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.56716 Asian low into London open extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5670 round number
Reclaiming the prev day low at 0.56764 and the Asia lower-highs line shifts the read to range
An M15 close above the 0.56826 Asian high / 38.2% fib negates the intraday lower-high structure
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print carries the larger repricing risk
Lower highs since the 0.5699 rejection; base forming at 0.5672.
Tuesday's NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high was rejected within two bars. Asia has since printed a chain of lower highs under a falling trendline, from the 0.5683 swing high down to a 0.5672 session low, as caution built ahead of NZ CPI. Late Asia, ahead of London open, price is pressing the trendline near 0.5676 with RSI(14) ~41 and ATR(14) under 3 pips, a tight compression.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5676 trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5683 swing high, also the 38.2% fib of the 0.5699–0.5672 drop, is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.5672 session low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5650 psych level
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-reaction risk
London open could expand the sub-3-pip ATR range
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56738
Lower highs from 0.5683 Asia high; prior low at 0.5676 broken, fresh session low 0.5672.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high met rejection just under 0.5700 and fully faded. Asia has since slipped below the 0.5676 prior low as pre-CPI caution set in, printing a session low at 0.5672 under a line of lower highs from the 0.5683 Asia high. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR has compressed to under 3 pips, so this is a slow grind rather than a flush.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5670, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5676, 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5672 session low exposes the 0.5700 round number, with 0.5650 psych below
M15 close back above the 0.5676 prior low and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.5683 Asia high, also the 38.2% of the 0.5699–0.5672 fib, shifts structure back to range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print carries the larger downside risk
Lower highs through Asia, new session low at 0.56716.
Tuesday's NY spike to 0.56987 was rejected just under 0.5700 and fully unwound. Asia has since printed lower highs from 0.56826 and broken Tuesday's 0.5676 prior low, setting a session low at 0.56716 as pre-CPI caution and a firmer USD near DXY 101.80 weigh. Price is pinned below both EMAs with ATR under 3 pips, a compressed late-Asian tape ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56767, 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.56767 prior low eases the downside pressure
A break above the 0.56826 lower high voids the lower-highs sequence and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.56716 session low exposes the 0.5670 round number
London open could expand the tight Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print carries the larger downside skew
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.56739
Lower highs since the 0.5699 rejection; fresh session low at 0.56716.
After yesterday's NY-session rejection just under 0.5700 (high 0.56987), the pair has printed a chain of lower highs. Late Asia has bled to a session low at 0.56716 as pre-CPI caution set in. The lower high at 0.56767 caps the drift, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) at about 3 pips, reflecting a thin, slow tape.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56767, 0.56826, 0.56883
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.56826 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 0.56716 session low exposes the 0.5670 round number
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 0.56883 would neutralise the post-rejection decline
London open could expand the compressed Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
The NY-open spike to 0.5699 was fully reversed on Tuesday. Asia has printed lower highs from the 0.5685 Asian high and 0.5683 lower high, and late in the session price slipped through the 0.5674 Asian low to a 0.5672 session low as pre-CPI caution and a firmer USD weigh. RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3 pips point to a slow, contained grind rather than a flush.
Support: 0.56716, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.56826, 0.56853
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5674 Asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold 0.5670 round number extends the lower-high sequence
Close above 0.5683 lower high breaks the descending trendline
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY rejection, pressing session low.
Tuesday's NY spike to the 0.56987 prior high, just shy of 0.5700, was fully reversed, and every bounce since has stalled at a lower high as pre-CPI caution weighs on NZD. Late Asia is now testing the 0.56724 session low, the same level as the rollover wick, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR at about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56724, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56809, 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56724 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5670 round number
Close above the 0.56809 lower high and the 0.56826 asian high (38.2% of the NY spike retrace) breaks the lower-highs trendline
London open in about 2h may expand the compressed 3-pip ATR range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print is the larger-reaction scenario
Asia session is printing lower highs off the 0.5683 Asian high and is now testing the 0.5673 session low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 43. Pre-CPI caution has kept ranges tight since the NY spike to the 0.5699 prior high was rejected just under 0.5700.
Support: 0.56726, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5673 session low opens the 0.5670 round number
Close back above the 0.5683 Asian high breaks the Asia lower highs sequence
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC could reset the range; a soft print carries the larger downside skew
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.5674 floor inside the Asian range.
Tuesday's NY spike to the 0.5699 session high met rejection just shy of 0.5700. Price has since bled lower, and the Asia session is printing lower highs into a flat 0.5674 asian low as caution builds ahead of NZ Q3 CPI. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, so the tape is quiet, sitting under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5674, 0.56724
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5674 asian low breaks the floor and exposes the thin 0.5672 rollover low
A recovery above the 0.5683 lower high, then the 0.5685 asian high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Only a return toward the 0.5699 session high would undo the NY rejection leg
London open in ~3h could set the session range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-reaction risk
Lower highs compressing onto a flat 0.5674 floor in late Asia.
NY's spike to the 0.5699 NY high, just under 0.5700, was rejected and fully unwound as pre-CPI caution set in. Asia has printed lower highs at 0.5685 (asian high) and 0.5681 (lower high) against three tests of the 0.5674 asian low, which also matches yesterday's early low, with price pinned below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5681, 0.5685, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 asian low breaks the flat floor and exposes the 0.5670 round number
Close above the 0.5681 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the compression read, with the 0.5685 asian high next
London open is the first test of the late-Asia compression range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Drifting lower off NY high, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 0.56768
Lower highs since NY spike, flat floor at asian low.
Yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 ny high, just under 0.5700, was rejected within two bars. Price has since built a chain of lower highs, capped at the 0.5683 asian high, the 38.2% of the NY drop. The 0.5674 asian low has held three times, leaving late Asia compressed in a ~9-pip band ahead of London open as pre-CPI caution keeps NZD restrained.
Support: 0.5674
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5674 asian low breaks the Asia floor and confirms a lower-low
Close above 0.5683 asian high (38.2% of the NY drop) breaks the lower-highs chain
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) is the main risk to this compression
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields could jolt USD during London hours
03:31 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 53 · price 0.56773
Late-Asia range 0.5674–0.5683 under a falling lower-high line.
Yesterday's NY-open spike to the 0.5699 NY high was fully rejected, and the pair has printed a chain of lower highs since, sitting mid-Asian range at 0.5677 just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53. The Kiwi is easing on pre-CPI caution after its four-day rally. Ranges are compressed at about 3 pips ATR, and the Asian low at 0.5674 has held on three tests.
Support: 0.56738, 0.56724
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5674 Asian low exposes the 0.5672 day low (rollover wick) and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5683 Asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the NY-high sell-off, breaks the lower-high line
London open in ~3.5h is likely to resolve the compressed Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ / 3.8% YoY) could materially shift this read later in the day
03:16 UTC
Sideways to soft, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 47 · price 0.56763
Asia range 0.5674–0.5683 under a descending sequence of lower highs.
The NY session spike to the 0.5699 ny high was rejected within two hours, and every bounce since has printed a lower high, the latest at 0.5683. Mid-Asia, price is boxed between the 0.5674 asian low, tested twice, and the 0.5683 asian high, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 3.3 pips as caution builds into NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5674, 0.56707
Resistance: 0.56826, 0.56868, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 asian low exposes the 0.5671 24h low
M15 close above the 0.5683 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 0.5687 lower high sits next
Only a reclaim of the 0.5699 ny high negates the NY rejection
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY open · RSI 47 · price 0.5678
Tight Asian range under a descending lower-high line.
The NY open spike to the 0.5699 ny high was fully rejected. Price has since printed lower highs at 0.5687 and 0.5683 as pre-CPI caution capped the pair near 0.5680. Mid-Asia session, price is boxed in 0.5674–0.5683, with three tests of the asian low holding, price just under the ema20 and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5683, 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 asian low breaks the range lower and exposes the 0.5672 rollover low
M15 close above the 0.5683 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5689 london high
London open in ~4h is the next test of the Asian range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) could materially shift this read; pre-data compression likely persists until then
02:46 UTC
Sideways-to-lower after NY spike rejection · RSI 51 · price 0.56788
Lower highs since 0.5699, Asian range 0.5674–0.5683.
The NY-session spike to the 0.5699 spike high on soft USD after the US housing miss was fully rejected, and price has printed lower highs since. Mid-Asia, price sits at 0.5679 inside a tight Asian range, 0.5674 asian low to 0.5683 asian high, with the asian low tested twice. Price is holding between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the rally fib, and RSI is neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5671
Resistance: 0.5683, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5683 asian high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5674 asian low exposes the 0.5671 prior low
A move back toward the 0.5699 spike high would retest the 0.5700 rejection zone
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (~19h) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Range, drifting lower after NY rejection · RSI 53 · price 0.5680
Lower highs off 0.5699, flat base near 0.5674.
NY session spiked to the 0.5699 ny high, just shy of 0.5700, on the soft USD. It was rejected straight back to 0.5682, and highs have stepped lower since. Asia is holding a 0.5674–0.5685 range: the asia low has been tested three times, the 0.5676 swing low sits just above it, and price at 0.5680 is mid-range, just under the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the ny high to the asia low.
Support: 0.5676, 0.5674
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.5699
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5674 asia low confirms a lower-low and breaks the Asian range
M15 close above the 0.5685 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5699 ny high back in view
0.5676 swing low is the first area to watch for demand on any dip inside the range
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (~19h) and unscheduled US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Range, recovering off Asia lows · RSI 55 · price 0.56804
Asia base at 0.5674, lower-high sequence just broken.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 ny spike hi was rejected and fully unwound, leaving the pair ranging below 0.5687 with pre-CPI positioning and a soft USD keeping moves contained. In Asia session, demand held three tests of the 0.5674 asian low; the 02:00 UTC bar broke the Asia downtrend line and the 0.5679 asia shelf, with price now pressing EMA50 below the 0.5685 asian high.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5674
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.5687, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5679 asia shelf negates the break of the Asia downtrend line
Loss of the 0.5674 asian low confirms a lower-low and reopens the range floor
Close above the 0.5685 asian high puts the 0.5687 ny bounce hi and the 38-50% retrace of the NY spike in play
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY rejection near 0.5700, compressing above the Asian low.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 NY high stalled just shy of 0.5700 and was fully retraced. Since then a sequence of lower highs has pushed price toward the 0.5674 Asian low, tested twice so far in Asia, with ATR shrinking to about 3 pips ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5666
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5685, 0.5699
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 0.5674 Asian low extends the lower-highs drift and opens the 0.5666 prior low
An M15 close above the 0.5680 lower high and the trendline breaks the compression, with the 0.5685 Asian high next
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the NY spike high, flat floor at the asian low.
The NY spike high at 0.5699 was rejected just shy of 0.5700 and has since bled into a lower-high chain (0.5687, 0.5685 asian high, 0.5680 lower high). The Asia session floor at the 0.5674 asian low has now been tested three times, with RSI(14) near 41 and ranges compressed under 3 pips ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.56738, 0.56638
Resistance: 0.56803, 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the window low near 0.5664
Close above the falling trendline and the 0.5680 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5685 asian high back in play
Ny spike hi at 0.5699 caps the day; only a reclaim of that level negates the rejection read
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (~20h, f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
Yesterday's NY spike to the 0.5699 NY high, near the top of NZD's four-day pre-CPI rally, was rejected within an hour and gave back the move by the late session. Asia has since stepped down from the 0.5685 Asian high in a run of lower highs, the latest near 0.5679, while the 0.5674 Asian low has held on three tests just above the 0.5672 rollover low.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5672, 0.5664
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.5685, 0.5699
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5674 Asian low and the 0.5672 rollover low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5664 prior low
Close above the 0.5679 lower high and the trendline breaks the Asia downtrend, putting the 0.5685 Asian high back in play
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (00:45 broker): a soft print could reprice RBNZ hike odds and break the current range
Lower highs since the 0.5685 Asia high, flat lows at 0.5674 testing the session low.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 day high was rejected just shy of the 0.5700 handle, and price gave the move back to the 0.5676 NY low. Early Asia has printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 0.5679, while price sits on the 0.5674 session low, below that ny low, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.56739, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56764, 0.56792, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5670 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5676 ny low and a close above the 0.5679 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the Asia downtrend read
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) is the dominant event risk for this pair; positioning ahead of it can amplify swings around the 0.5699 day high and the 0.5670 round number
01:04 UTC
Intraday drift lower after NY rejection · RSI 42 · price 0.56782
Lower highs from 0.5699, Asia session holding 0.5674.
The NY session spike to the 0.5699 NY high was rejected just shy of the 0.5700 handle that the NZD rally into CPI has been pressing. Since then price has printed a chain of lower highs into Asia and now sits near the 61.8% fib of the day's 0.5662–0.5699 move. The 0.5674 Asia low is the floor, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.56739, 0.56616
Resistance: 0.56803, 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 0.5662 day low as the next reference
Recovery above the 0.5680 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the drift, with the 0.5685 session high next
NZ Q3 CPI (21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) is the key event risk for this structure
00:47 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs in Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.56776
Post-spike range 0.5674–0.5686 with micro lower highs.
Yesterday's NY high at 0.5699 failed just short of the 0.5700 handle and fully reversed, a false break that has capped price since. Early Asia is printing lower highs from the asia high at 0.5685, through 0.5680, with the asia low at 0.5674 holding. Price sits below EMA20, RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is under 3 pips as positioning stays tight ahead of NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5661
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5685, 0.5699
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 asia low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5661 day low
Close above the 0.5680 lower high and then 0.5685 asia high (38.2–50% fib zone) breaks the descending trendline
The 0.5672 rollover print was a thin-liquidity spike, not a structural low
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the main event risk and could reprice the 0.5699 ny high rejection
NY's soft-USD spike to the 0.5699 spike high was rejected just shy of the 0.5700 handle. Asia has since faded from the 0.5685 session high under descending Asia highs, slipping below the 0.5676 NY low to a fresh 0.5674 asian low. Price sits beneath the 38.2% retrace (0.5683) of that NY high-to-Asia low move, with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 0.56739, 0.56724, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56764, 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5676 NY low turns the break below it into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5674 asian low exposes the 0.5672 rollover low, then the 0.5661 prior low from the previous Asia session
A break of the descending Asia highs line and the 0.5685 session high invalidates the lower-high sequence
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% QoQ) is the main event risk for this structure later in the day
00:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 34 · price 0.56744
Lower highs and lower lows off 0.5699, testing 61.8% retrace.
The NY spike to the 0.5699 day high was rejected within two bars. The pair has since printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 0.5680 in early Asia session, and has slipped under the 0.5676 NY low to sit on the 61.8% retrace of the day's rally from the 0.5661 Asia low. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not stretched, and the pre-CPI rally is fading into thin Asia trade.
Support: 0.56724, 0.5670, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56764, 0.56803, 0.56987
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5680 lower high and the lower-highs trendline (~0.5682) would break the sell-off sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5672 rollover low and the 0.5670 round number exposes yesterday's 0.5661 Asia low
Reclaiming the 0.5676 NY low would turn the 61.8% retrace into a hold rather than a break
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) is the binary event; positioning into it can shift this read before the print
The NY spike to the 0.5699 NY high was rejected just shy of 0.5700, the late-September area the NZD rally has been pressing, and price has since printed lower highs. Early Asia is pressing the 0.5676 NY low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the prior-low-to-high rally, with the Asian high at 0.5685 capping. ATR is about 3.4 pips, inflated by the rollover gap and wick to 0.5672.
Support: 0.56764, 0.56614
Resistance: 0.56853, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5676 NY low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5661 prior low
Recovery through the 0.5685 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.5689 London high above
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a soft print would test the pre-data rally