Higher lows since Monday's open; first rejection at 0.5700-0.5704 week high.
Higher lows each day since Monday's open at 0.5652. London and NY sessions drove this week's rally to a 0.5704 week high during Wednesday's NY hours, with Tuesday's NY spike to 0.5699 faded first. The soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8% y/y) produced a rejection back under the 0.5700 round number; the release-bar cpi low at 0.5685 is holding above the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline of higher lows. Price now sits marginally below EMA20 near 0.5691, with RSI(14) back to ~51 from the mid-60s.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56824, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56908, 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5685 cpi low and the 38.2% fib at 0.5682 would break the rising trendline of higher lows
Failure to hold the 0.5672 wed low would mark the first lower-low of the week
Reclaiming EMA20 and an H1 close back above the 0.5700 round number returns focus to the 0.5704 week high
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Friday flash PMIs could shift this read; repricing of RBNZ Oct 28 hike odds after the CPI miss is the wider driver
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open; first pullback off 0.5700 holding the trendline.
Higher highs and higher lows have stacked since the 0.5652 weekly open, with London and NY driving each leg of the week rally to a 0.5704 week high during NY hours Wednesday. The soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) produced a rejection at the 0.5700 round number. Price dipped to a 0.5685 CPI low, where the 38.2% retracement and the rising trendline held. Price is back just above the ema20 near 0.5691, and RSI(14) has eased to about 55 from the mid-60s.
Support: 0.5691, 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5685 cpi low and the rising trendline exposes the wed low at 0.5672, the 61.8% retracement of the week rally
Holding the ema20 near 0.5691 keeps the pullback shallow inside the uptrend; repeated closes below it point to a deeper correction
A reclaim of the 0.5700 round number and a close above the 0.5704 week high extend the higher-high sequence
Swaps repricing of Oct 28 RBNZ hike odds after the CPI miss, plus US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Uptrend, testing week high · RSI 62 · price 0.56999
Higher lows each session since Monday, pressing the 0.5700 handle.
Each session since Monday's 0.5647 open low has printed a higher low. Wednesday's London open lifted price off the 0.5672 Wed low, and NY hours broke through Tuesday's 0.5699 high to a 0.5704 week high, with firm RBNZ hike pricing and a soft USD after Tuesday's housing misses behind the move. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.5692 with RSI(14) at 62, while two tags of the 0.5704 week high have stalled around the 0.5700 round number, leaving the 0.5687 range floor of Wednesday's London-NY consolidation just below.
Support: 0.5687, 0.5672, 0.5655
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5704
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, ~80% RBNZ hike priced) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 0.5687 range floor back in focus
H1 close above the 0.5704 week high extends the higher-high sequence beyond the round number
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.5672 Wed low ends this week's sequence; that zone sits near the 61.8% of the week range fib (~0.5669), with the 0.5655 Tue low below
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 67 · price 0.5703
Higher lows since Monday, break above 0.5700.
NZDUSD has built higher lows since Monday's open near 0.5652. The Asia-session dip held the wed low at 0.5672, close to the 61.8% retracement of the week's leg, and London then rebuilt above EMA(20). Through NY hours today the pair cleared Tuesday's 0.5699 tue high, helped by firm RBNZ hike pricing and a soft USD after the housing misses. A pullback to 0.5694 was absorbed and price recovered toward the 0.5704 week high, with RSI(14) near 67, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5699, 0.5691, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read, and a soft print is the larger structural risk with ~80% hike priced
H1 close back below the tue high at 0.5699 turns the 0.5700 break into a false break
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.5691 and the higher-low trendline exposes the wed low at 0.5672
Clearance of the 0.5704 week high extends the impulse beyond this week's range
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.5700 · RSI 62 · price 0.56945
Higher lows since Friday, false break above 0.5700.
Higher lows have held since Friday's 0.5641 low. Tuesday's NY push reached 0.5699 and Wednesday's NY extension set a 0.5704 week high, helped by firm RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD after the housing misses. The latest bar reversed from the week high back below the 0.5700 round number, leaving a false break at the handle ahead of tonight's Q3 CPI. Price still sits above EMA(20) near 0.5689 with RSI(14) near 62, and Wednesday's Asian low at 0.5672 marks the most recent higher low.
Support: 0.5689, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read with ~80% RBNZ hike priced
Hourly close back above the 0.5704 week high negates the false break at the round number
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.5689 would bring the 38.2–61.8% retrace of the Tue–Wed leg (0.5685–0.5674) into play
Break below the 0.5672 Asian low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the weekly open at 0.5652
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh week high · RSI 67 · price 0.57036
Higher lows each session since the week open; Tuesday's high taken out.
Since the week opened near 0.5652, each session has carved a higher low: 0.5652 Monday, 0.5661 Tuesday and 0.5672 in Wednesday's Asian dip. The Wednesday low sat almost exactly on the 50% retracement of the impulse from Friday's 0.5641 low. Buyers stepped back in from the London open, and NY hours took out the 0.5699 Tuesday high to print a 0.5704 week high, with price riding above EMA(20) near 0.5690. Soft US housing data, fading Fed-hike bets and firm RBNZ hike pricing have underpinned the climb, and RSI(14) near 67 is elevated but not yet overbought heading into tonight's NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5699, 0.5690, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5704
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y): a miss could unwind the run back toward the 0.5650 area, while a hot print would test extension above the 0.5704 week high
H1 close back below the 0.5699 Tuesday high would turn today's breakout into a false break
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5672 Wednesday low would end the session-by-session higher-low sequence
Pullbacks finding the EMA(20) near 0.5690 would keep the uptrend rhythm intact
US initial jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of the read
Higher lows since Friday, marginal close above Tuesday's 0.5699 high.
NZDUSD has stacked higher lows since Friday's 0.5641 low and the 0.5652 weekly open. London drove Tuesday's and today's legs as weak US housing data trimmed Fed-hike pricing and firm RBNZ hike odds underpinned the Kiwi. Wednesday's Asian dip held the 0.5672 wed low before the climb resumed through EMA(20), now near 0.5688. The 16:00 UTC bar closed at 0.5700, just above Tuesday's 0.5699 NY spike high and a pip shy of the 0.5702 week high, with RSI(14) near 69 and short of an overbought extreme.
Support: 0.5688, 0.5672, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5702
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 0.5652 weekly open back in view
Hourly close back below Tuesday's 0.5699 high would turn the push through the 0.5700 handle into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.5702 week high extends the uptrend beyond this week's range
Loss of the 0.5688 ema20 and then the 0.5672 wed low breaks the rising lows trendline and the higher-low sequence
Higher lows since Friday; capped under 0.5699 week high.
NZDUSD has built higher lows since Friday's 0.5641 trough, with the week rally carried by fading Fed-hike bets and firm RBNZ hike pricing. The rally stalled when Tuesday's NY-open spike to the 0.5699 week high was rejected. Wednesday's Asia dip held the 0.5672 higher low just above the 50% retracement, and London lifted price back above EMA(20) to a 0.5696 day high that sits just under the week high. RSI(14) near 62 is mid-cycle with no divergence, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 6 pips into tonight's NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56863, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, ~80% RBNZ hike priced) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 handle would break the Tuesday rejection
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.5686 returns price to the 0.5672–0.5699 range
Close below the 0.5672 higher low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.5652 week open
Higher lows since Friday, highs capped under 0.5700.
NZD/USD has stepped up off Friday's 0.5641 low on rising lows. Tuesday's pullback held the 38.2% fib of the rally, and today's Asian low at 0.5672 was reclaimed from the London open, putting price back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 58 and no divergence. The 0.5700 round number remains the cap: the Tuesday high at 0.5699 was a rejected NY spike, and today high at 0.5696 stalled in London, leaving a tight consolidation on firm RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD after weak housing data.
Support: 0.56855, 0.56765, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.56987, 0.5700
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; with ~80% of a hike priced, a soft print puts the rising lows trendline and the 0.5650 area in focus
H1 close above the 0.5700 round number, clearing the tuesday high at 0.5699, extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of ema20 near 0.5686 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5677 exposes today's asian low at 0.5672; a break there ends the higher-low structure
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 64 · price 0.56927
Higher lows since Friday, testing Tuesday's 0.5699 peak.
NZD/USD has climbed from the 0.5652 weekly open to a 0.5699 week high in Tuesday's NY session, with both up-legs this week launched at the London open on firm RBNZ hike pricing and a softer dollar. Wednesday's Asia dip held the 0.5672 wed low, near the 50% retrace of the Friday low to Tuesday high move, which keeps the higher lows intact. Price is back above EMA(20) at 0.5685 with RSI(14) near 64. It is pressing the day high just under the week high and the 0.5700 handle ahead of tonight's NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5685, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56957, 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 handle extends the higher-highs sequence
Rejection at the day high leaves a lower high against Tuesday's peak and a stalled uptrend
Close back below ema20 at 0.5685 and the higher lows trendline near 0.5677 shifts the read toward a range
Loss of the 0.5672 wed low breaks the higher lows; weekly open at 0.5652 is the next reference
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks unwinding ~80% hike pricing
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 66 · price 0.56951
Higher lows each session since Friday; 0.5675 breakout retested and held.
Lows have stepped higher every session since Friday's 0.5641 trough. Tuesday's Asia-to-London leg cleared the 0.5675 cap left by the Thursday and Monday highs, then tagged the 0.5699 week high in NY before fading. Wednesday's Asian dip to the 0.5672 wed low held the 61.8% retracement of that Tuesday impulse, and the London open lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.5685, with RSI(14) around 66 and no divergence yet. Firm RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD sit behind the four-day run into tonight's NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5685, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and the 0.5700 handle extends the higher-high sequence
A second rejection at the week high with RSI rolling under 60 would put a double top on the H1 table
Hourly closes back below EMA(20) at 0.5685 mark momentum stalling into the CPI release
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.5672 wed low voids the retest read and exposes the weekly open at 0.5652
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC: a print at or below 3.7% y/y is the scenario most able to unwind the week's structure
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 64 · price 0.56903
Higher lows since Monday, capped below 0.5700.
NZDUSD has climbed steadily from the 0.5652 weekly open, printing higher lows on Monday, Tuesday and in today's Asian session. The drivers are firm RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD. Tuesday's NY spike to the 0.5699 week high was faded, but today's London session pushed price back to a 0.5694 day high, with price holding above EMA(20) near 0.5683 and RSI(14) around 64. The Asian low at 0.5672 held close to the 50% retracement of the Friday-to-Tuesday leg.
Support: 0.5683, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56938, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; ~80% hike odds already priced
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and the 0.5700 round number extends the higher-high sequence
Repeat rejection at the day high/week high zone keeps price boxed below 0.5700
Loss of EMA(20) and then the 0.5672 asian low breaks the higher-lows trendline
A drop back toward the weekly open at 0.5652 would erase most of this week's advance
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
11:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 61 · price 0.56928
Higher lows since Friday's NY low, compressing under the 0.5699 week high.
NZDUSD has printed higher lows since Friday's NY-session low at 0.5641. Monday's London session and Tuesday's Asia-to-London stretch did most of the lifting, while Tuesday's NY-open spike to the 0.5699 week high met rejection. Wednesday's Asian low at 0.5672 held near the 23.6% fib of the Thursday–Tuesday impulse, and London has since lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.5683 toward the 0.5700 handle, with RSI(14) near 61. Firm RBNZ hike pricing and a solid GDT auction have underpinned the climb into tonight's Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.5683, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the higher-lows trendline under pressure
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 handle extends the uptrend beyond Tuesday's rejection
Loss of the 0.5672 Asian low breaks the higher-lows sequence and brings the 0.5652 weekly open back into focus
Sustained trade back below EMA(20) at 0.5683 would signal the London push failing under the week high
US initial claims Thu 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst for the pair
Higher lows since Friday; tight 0.5672–0.5699 range since Tuesday.
The impulse off Thursday's 0.5591 low ran through Friday's Asia session. The week then built higher lows from the 0.5652 weekly open and spiked to a 0.5699 week high into Tuesday's NY session on the soft US housing data, before a rejection just shy of the 0.5700 handle. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5672–0.5699 band. Wednesday's Asia low at 0.5672 held near the 23.6% retracement, and the London open lifted price back above EMA(20) to a 0.5690 London high, with RSI(14) holding the mid-50s ahead of NZ CPI.
Support: 0.5681, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts 0.5652 back in focus
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 handle breaks the range top that capped Tuesday's spike
Failure to hold the 0.5672 asia low and the higher-low trendline would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 0.5652 weekly open
Repeated H1 closes back below EMA(20) near 0.5681 would turn the range read lower inside the band
Thursday US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Higher lows since Thursday; compressing under 0.5699 between lower highs and the Asia low.
NZDUSD has printed higher lows since Thursday's 0.5591 low, rising from the 0.5652 weekly open mostly in London hours as the USD eased on US-Iran headlines and traders positioned for an RBNZ hike. Tuesday's NY spike to the 0.5699 week high was rejected. Price has since compressed between lower highs and today's 0.5672 asia low, which held near the 23.6% retracement of the week's impulse, and now sits just above EMA(20) at 0.5681 with RSI(14) near 56 heading into NZ Q3 CPI.
Support: 0.56806, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56901, 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 handle breaks the lower highs and resumes the higher-high sequence
Repeated failure at the 0.5690 day high keeps the consolidation below the week high intact
Break below the 0.5672 asia low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 0.5652 weekly open
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 3.8% y/y, 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the weekly open back in play
Higher lows intact; compressing in 0.5672–0.5689 range under week high.
NZDUSD has climbed about 110 pips off last Thursday's 0.5591 low through a series of higher lows. Tuesday's NY-session push tagged a 0.5699 week high, just under the late-Sept highs, before stalling, helped by a firmer GDT auction and softer US data. Since then H1 has compressed into a 0.5672–0.5689 range as caution builds ahead of CPI. The Asian dip to the range low held near the 23.6% retracement of the impulse, and the London open has lifted price back to the range top, above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5659, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5689 range top reopens the 0.5699 week high and the 0.5700 handle
Break below the 0.5672 range low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5659 swing low
Loss of the 0.5652 weekly open would unwind this week's advance and test the 38.2% retracement of the impulse
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a larger reaction to a soft print
Higher lows from Friday's 0.5641, lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5699 top.
From the 0.5652 weekly open the Kiwi built higher lows through Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the Asia and London sessions, as China's Q3 GDP beat and soft US housing data weighed on USD. Tuesday's London push met rejection at the 0.5699 week high, just shy of 0.5700. Since then a run of lower highs has pulled price back onto EMA(20) near 0.5678 and the 38.2% fib of the Friday-low-to-week-high leg, with RSI(14) easing into the high 40s.
Support: 0.56716, 0.56519, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5678, 0.56987
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the wed low at 0.5672 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib near 0.5670, then the weekly open at 0.5652
A close back above the lower-highs line and EMA(20) near 0.5680, then a clear break of the 0.5699 week high, would resume the weekly impulse
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC today (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y). A soft print could unwind the rebound toward the friday low at 0.5641
Higher lows since weekly open; tight Asian range under the week high.
The rebound from Thursday's 0.5591 low, helped by a softer USD and firm China and dairy data, ran into Tuesday's NY session. There a spike to the 0.5699 week high was rejected just under 0.5700. Since then price has slipped into a tight 0.5672–0.5685 Asian range, now below EMA(20), as caution builds ahead of NZ Q3 CPI. Higher lows since the weekly open remain intact, and price is holding the 23.6% fib of the 0.5591–0.5699 move, with RSI(14) easing to around 40.
Support: 0.56716, 0.56575, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56784, 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5672 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5658 and the higher lows trendline near 0.5665
Failure to hold the 0.5652 weekly open would break this week's higher lows sequence
A reclaim of EMA(20) and the 0.5685 asian high would put the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 back in play
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC today (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; with ~80% RBNZ hike pricing, a soft print risks the larger reaction
Higher lows intact; lower highs since Tuesday's week high.
NZD/USD has built higher lows since Thursday's 0.5591 trough, and the leg extended through Tuesday's London session on a softer USD and the firmer GDT auction. The NY-open spike to the 0.5699 week high was rejected just under 0.5700, with RSI(14) printing a lower high against the 0.5689 London high, a bearish divergence. Lower highs have followed since that peak, and Asia has drifted to a 0.5672 Asia low as pre-CPI caution sets in. Price now sits below EMA(20) at 0.5678, on EMA(50) and the 23.6% retracement of the week impulse, with RSI(14) near 42 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5658 above the weekly open at 0.5652.
Support: 0.56716, 0.56575, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56777, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-reaction scenario
An H1 close back above EMA(20) and the 0.5689 London high breaks the post-peak lower highs and reopens the week high near 0.5700
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.5658 and the week higher-lows trendline would break the higher-low sequence and expose the weekly open at 0.5652
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Iran/oil headlines remain USD swing factors for this structure
Higher lows since Thursday's low; tight consolidation under the week high.
The rebound off Thursday's 0.5591 low extended through Tuesday's London session. A NY spike to the 0.5699 week high met rejection just below the 0.5700 round number, helped along by a softer USD on Iran de-escalation and weak US housing data. Price has since slipped under the H1 ema20 in a tight Asian range of 0.5672–0.5685, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s as caution builds before NZ Q3 CPI. The 0.5672 asia low sits just above the 23.6% retrace of the week's impulse.
Support: 0.56724, 0.56575, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.56853, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print has more room to move price
H1 close below the 0.5672 asia low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.5658 and the weekly open at 0.5652
A break of the rising support from Friday's 0.5641 low would end the higher-low sequence
Recovery back above the ema20 and the 0.5685 asia high puts the 0.5699 week high and the 0.5700 round number back in focus
Higher lows since Oct 15; tight range under week high.
The rally from Thursday's 0.5591 low ran ~108 pips on a softer USD and RBNZ hike pricing, with Asia/London sessions driving most legs. Tuesday's NY spike to the week high at 0.5699 met rejection, and closes have since been held under the 0.5689 close cap. Price now sits on EMA(20) and the rising support line, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s and ATR compressing ahead of NZ CPI, while the day low at 0.5672 holds the range floor.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5661, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5699
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5699 week high and 0.5700 extends the higher-high sequence
Close below the 0.5672 day low breaks the rising support line
Failure to hold the 0.5661 tue low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the Oct 15-20 rally near 0.5657 and the 0.5652 weekly open
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC as the next USD input
Higher lows since Thursday; pullback from Tuesday's week high.
NZDUSD has built higher lows since Thursday's 0.5591 PPI low. Friday's Asia-to-London leg and Tuesday's NY push, helped by a softer USD and RBNZ hike pricing, carried it to a 0.5699 week high just shy of 0.5700, where it was rejected. Price has slipped back under the ema20 near 0.5680 into Wednesday's Asian session and is testing the mon high at 0.5674, which sits near the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s. The rising trendline from Friday's low sits near 0.5659 alongside the 38.2% fib at 0.5657, with the week open at 0.5652 marking the breakout base below.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5657, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.5699
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.5680 restores the higher-low sequence toward the 0.5699 week high
Failure to hold the mon high at 0.5674 exposes the rising trendline and 38.2% fib near 0.5657
Loss of the 0.5652 week open breaks the higher-low structure from Thursday
Higher lows since Thursday; rising trendline breached after the 0.5700 rejection.
NZD/USD has stair-stepped higher from Thursday's 0.5591 low on the US core PPI print. Friday's Asia-London leg and Monday's London-NY leg did most of the work as the USD softened on Iran-deal hopes and RBNZ hike pricing firmed into Q3 CPI. Tuesday's NY spike to the 0.5699 week high faded just shy of 0.5700, with RSI(14) peaking below its reading on the earlier London push to the 0.5689 late-September highs (sept highs), and price has since slipped under EMA(20) at 0.5679 and the rising trendline off Friday's lows. With RSI near 50 and ATR(14) around 6 pips, the pair is compressing above the 0.5674 pullback low, with EMA(50) at 0.5670 just beneath.
Support: 0.56739, 0.56699, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5679, 0.56893, 0.56987
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5674 pullback low and EMA(50) at 0.5670 breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 0.5652 weekly open near the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-Tuesday impulse
Recovery above EMA(20) and a close through 0.5700 (week high) would negate the rejection and divergence read
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-move risk given ~80% hike pricing
Iran headlines and Thursday's US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) remain the USD-side swing factors
Higher lows since Thursday; pullback from week high testing rising trendline.
Higher lows have printed since last Thursday's 0.5591 low. From the 0.5652 week open the advance reached a 0.5699 week high in Tuesday's NY session, where a rejection under the 0.5700 handle capped the soft-USD leg driven by US-Iran headlines. Price has since slipped below EMA(20) near 0.5681 during the Asian session but holds above EMA(50) and the Wed low at 0.5672 on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s and the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-Tuesday impulse at 0.5658 sitting just above the week open.
Support: 0.56724, 0.56575, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5681, 0.56987
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q, 3.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; a soft print would put the 38.2% fib and week open back in play
H1 close below the Wed low at 0.5672 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
H1 close above the week high at 0.5699 clears the 0.5700 handle and the late-September highs
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 0.5681 would restore the pullback-and-hold rhythm seen Monday and Tuesday