21:07 UTC
Downtrend, rebound testing EMA50 · RSI 51 · price 0.5677
LH/LL chain since Aug 21 high; Oct double bottom broke higher.
The Aug-Oct decline ran from the Aug 21 high at 0.5988 to the Oct 14 low at 0.5565, about 420 pips of lower highs and lower lows beneath a falling EMA(50), with RSI sinking below 30 in late September. The Oct 5 and Oct 14 lows formed a double bottom, and last week's break above the 0.5635 base top came as Fed-hike bets faded and the USD softened. That lifted price back above the ema20 near 0.5655 and into the 0.5700 round number, still just beneath the ema50 at 0.5707.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5635, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5707, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- NZ Q3 CPI at 21:45 UTC tonight (f/c 3.8% y/y, prev 4.1%) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the ema20 near 0.5655 back in focus
- A daily close above the round number and ema50 at 0.5700-0.5707 would be the first break of the Aug-Oct decline structure, with the sep 22 high at 0.5749 and 38.2% retracement at 0.5727 next in line
- A slide back below the base top at 0.5635 negates the double bottom and reopens the oct 14 low at 0.5565
- US flash PMIs Fri and the RBNZ decision Oct 28 (~80% hike priced) are the next event risks for the weekly structure