21:06 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce from multi-month low · RSI 60 · price 0.56833
LH/LL chain from Aug high; base break, bounce stalling under EMA50.
NZDUSD has traced lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 swing high at 0.5988, sliding to the Oct 14 oct low at 0.5565 after a three-week base capped at the 0.5635 base top. RBNZ hike pricing, a China GDP beat and a softer USD drove a five-session breakout from that base to a 0.5710 bounce high. Wednesday's Q3 CPI miss capped the move there, below EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib near 0.5727, keeping the bounce inside the broader downtrend.
Support: 0.5635, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5749, 0.5835
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5749 lower high (Sep 22) breaks the LH/LL chain; above that, the 0.5835 breakdown level is next
- Rejection at the 0.5710 bounce high and EMA(50) keeps the move corrective within the downtrend
- Daily close back below the 0.5635 base top returns price to the base, with the 0.5565 oct low next
- RBNZ decision Oct 28 (25bp hike to 3.00% priced): a hold or dovish guidance could materially shift this read
- Fed decision next week and Friday's US flash PMIs set the USD side of the move