Higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 low; first dip below the rally trendline.
NZDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 low at 0.5565, a run backed by RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD, until the 0.5710 month high was rejected after the Q3 NZ CPI miss. The pullback to the 0.5668 post-cpi low slipped beneath the rally trendline but held well above the fib 38.2 at 0.5655. Price is back above EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 16 pips reads as steady rather than compressed.
Support: 0.56678, 0.56548, 0.56407
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5710 month high resumes the higher-high sequence
A break below the 0.5668 post-cpi low exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.5655, which sits near prior lows
Loss of the 0.5641 swing low breaks the higher-low structure from the Oct 14 low
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could shift USD direction and test this read
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC; a hold versus the priced hike could materially change the structure
17:05 UTC
Uptrend from Oct 14 low, pulling back · RSI 51 · price 0.56795
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5565; first pullback testing the rally trendline.
A higher-high, higher-low sequence from the Oct 14 swing low at 0.5565 carried NZDUSD to a 0.5710 month high. The Q3 CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8%) triggered a rejection there. The pullback has slipped below EMA20 and is testing the rally trendline around the 0.5668 cpi low, just under the 23.6% fib. EMA50 sits well beneath, and ATR(14) has eased to about 16 pips, below the expansion seen during the October selloff.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5655, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5668 cpi low breaks the rally trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5655
Loss of the 0.5641 swing low would end the higher-low sequence from the Oct 14 low
Recovery above the 0.5699 prior high puts the 0.5710 month high back in play
US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) and the RBNZ decision (Oct 28 01:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Uptrend from Oct 14 low, momentum fading · RSI 54 · price 0.56783
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5565; pullback testing the last higher low.
The Oct 14-21 rally carved higher highs and higher lows from 0.5565 to a 0.5710 month high, where the Q3 CPI miss produced a rejection. Price has since slipped back onto EMA20 and is retesting the 0.5669-0.5672 higher low, near the 23.6% retracement of the Oct rally fib, and pressing the rising support line. EMA50 near 0.5652 sits above the 0.5641 swing low, and ATR(14) has eased to about 16 pips from the mid-October expansion.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5699, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5669 higher low breaks the rising support line and the higher-low sequence, exposing ema50 at 0.5652
Loss of the 0.5641 swing low would put the 38.2%-50% zone of the Oct rally fib in play
Close back above the 0.5699 prior high reopens a test of the 0.5710 month high
US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Friday could shift the USD side of this read
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC is the dominant event risk for the swing structure
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5565 low.
NZDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5565 multi-month low. It reclaimed the late-September 0.5665-0.5687 range, and EMA20 crossed above EMA50 during the move. The rally stalled at the 0.5710 swing high and slipped back under the 0.5700 round number after the soft Q3 CPI miss, though the latest pullback held above the prior higher low near 0.5680. ATR(14) near 16 pips is steady rather than compressing, consistent with a trend pausing rather than coiling.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5672, 0.5655
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5680 higher low breaks the rising-lows sequence and puts the 0.5672 swing low in focus
Failure to hold the 0.5655 fib 38.2 level, which overlaps the Oct 19-20 lows, opens the 61.8% retracement near 0.5620
H4 close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5710 swing high resumes the higher-high sequence
US S&P Global PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and today's jobless claims could shift USD and test the 0.5680 area
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 GMT, ~80% priced for a hike, could materially reshape this structure
Higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 low; first pullback from the high.
Higher highs and higher lows since the Oct 14 low at 0.5565, which briefly undercut the multi-week 0.5580-0.5630 range before price broke above the range top and extended to a 0.5710 swing high. The softer NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) brought a rejection from that high back below the 0.5700 round number, and price is now testing the higher-low trendline near 0.5682 with EMA20 (~0.5677) still above EMA50 (~0.5651). ATR(14) around 16 pips is a moderate regime, neither compressing nor expanding.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5655, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5672 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 38.2% fib at 0.5655 and EMA50
Loss of the old range top at 0.5630 would retrace most of the Oct 14 rally and revive the prior range read
Recovery above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5710 swing high resumes the higher-high structure
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC, with hike odds dented by the CPI miss, could materially shift this read
US jobless claims today and flash PMIs Friday are secondary USD-side risks
01:04 UTC
Uptrend since Oct 14 low, extending · RSI 67 · price 0.5705
Higher highs and higher lows off 0.5565; price at the window high.
Higher-high, higher-low structure has run since the Oct 14 sweep to 0.5565, the lowest since April 2025. Price has cleared the late-Sep sept high near 0.5687 and the 0.5700 handle, with EMA(20) crossed above EMA(50) and the rising trendline touched again at 0.5655. The soft Q3 CPI miss knocked the last bar to 0.5685 intrabar, but it closed at the 0.5705 window high. ATR(14) near 14 pips is contained versus mid-month, and the next psych level sits at 0.5750.
Support: 0.5685, 0.5672, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5705, 0.5750
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.5685 sept high turns the 0.5700 breakout into a false break
Break of the 0.5672 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5652
Sustained trade above the 0.5705 window high leaves the 0.5750 psych level as the next marked reference
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC; repricing of ~80% hike odds after the CPI miss could materially shift this read
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are a USD-side risk to the rally structure