The advance from Monday's 0.5652 weekly open ran to a 0.5710 week high in Thursday's Asia session just after the soft Q3 CPI. The push above the 0.5700 round number turned into a false break, and London selling broke the higher-lows line and drove price to a 0.5668 day low early in NY, just beyond the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally. A softer USD lifted NY back to the 50% fib area, but price is pinned marginally below the converged ema20/EMA50 near 0.5684 and a lower-highs line from Thursday's London high, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5668, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.5685 lower-highs line and ema20 would put the 0.5700 round number and 0.5710 week high back in play
A break of the 0.5668 day low, below the 61.8% fib, would confirm a lower-low and expose the 0.5652 weekly open
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC is the larger event risk for NZD into next week
20:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, correcting from week high · RSI 43 · price 0.5684
Rising trendline broken; lower low below Wednesday's low, NY rebound capped at broken trendline.
NZDUSD climbed from the 0.5652 weekly open to a 0.5710 week high in Thursday's Asia session. The push was rejected as the Q3 CPI miss sank in, and London extended the drop to 0.5668. That move broke the rising trendline from Monday's low and undercut the 0.5672 Wed low, which sits near the 61.8% retracement of the week rally. A softer USD helped the NY session recover to 0.5688, but the rebound stalled just under the broken trendline, with price now flat at EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 0.5672, 0.5668, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the trendline near 0.5689 would undo the breakdown and reopen the 0.5700 round number and 0.5710 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5668 Thu low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5652 weekly open
A return above the 0.5672 Wed low that holds keeps the 61.8% week rally retracement intact
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could shift USD and this read; RBNZ on Oct 28 01:00 UTC is the larger event risk for NZD
The week's rally ran from the 0.5652 weekly open to a 0.5710 week high in early Asia Thursday. The Q3 CPI miss turned that push above Wednesday's 0.5704 high into a false break, and the London-to-NY decline broke the rising trendline from Monday's low, printing a 0.5668 Thu low just beyond the 61.8% fib. A softer USD into the NY afternoon lifted price to a 0.5688 lower high near the 38.2% level, leaving it pinned on the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) around 0.5684 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5668, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5688 lower high and the rising trendline reopens the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5710 week high
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.5678 exposes the 0.5668 Thu low; a break there confirms a lower-low toward the 0.5652 weekly open
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the RBNZ decision on Oct 28 is the larger event risk
Rising trendline broken; lower high and lower low off 0.5710 week high, bounce testing EMA(20).
NZDUSD built higher lows from Monday's 0.5647 open through Wednesday, with Tuesday's and Wednesday's NY sessions driving the advance. The pair then printed a false break to the 0.5710 week high in Thursday's Asia session as the soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) landed, and a firmer USD extended the reversal into NY hours. Thursday's NY session ran to a 0.5668 Thu low, just under the 61.8% fib and below the Wed low at 0.5672, which broke the rising trendline. The late-NY bounce now sits on EMA(20) near 0.5685 and the 38.2% retracement, beneath the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) recovering to ~51 from 38.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56716, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5699 lower high reopens a test of the 0.5710 week high
Retest of the broken rising trendline near 0.5689 from below: a rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.5668 Thu low confirms a lower low, below the Wed low and the 61.8% fib
Losing EMA(20) on a closing basis returns the read to the Thursday pullback
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side
17:06 UTC
Week's uptrend stalled, correcting off the high · RSI 50 · price 0.56846
Higher-low sequence broken Thursday; rebound into the 38.2% retrace.
NZDUSD built higher lows from Sunday's 0.5652 week open to a 0.5710 week high in Thursday's Asia session. The Q3 CPI miss and a firmer USD then knocked it off the high, with a London-led slide to a 0.5668 day low that broke the higher-low line and Wednesday's 0.5672 swing low. Price has recovered into NY to the ema20/50 cluster near 0.5684, roughly the 38.2% level of the week rally fib and just under the broken higher-low line, with RSI(14) back at 50.
Support: 0.5684, 0.56678, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5699 lower high would reopen the 0.5710 week high and undo the correction read
Failure to hold the ema20/50 cluster at 0.5684 puts the 0.5668 day low back in focus; a break there extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5652 week open
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC: repricing of the ~80% hike odds after the CPI miss is the NZD-side swing factor
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5710 peak; Mon–Wed higher-low trendline broken.
NZDUSD built higher lows from the 0.5652 weekly open between Monday and Wednesday, with the gains coming mostly in the London sessions. It printed a 0.5710 week high in Thursday's Asian session after an initial dip on the soft NZ Q3 CPI miss. A false break above Wednesday's highs was rejected there, and the CPI miss plus a USD bounce after the jobless claims beat produced a lower-high, lower-low sequence through London and NY. That move broke the rising trendline and the Wednesday low before demand stepped in at the 0.5668 day low, near the 61.8% retracement of the week's advance. Price now sits just below EMA(20) at 0.5684 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.56678, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56838, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5699 lower high would undercut the pullback read and put the 0.5710 week high back in focus
Recovery above ema20 near 0.5684 and the 38.2% retracement at 0.5686 would frame the dip as a retracement of the week's advance
Failure to hold the 0.5668 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5652 weekly open
US flash PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (Fri 13:45–14:00 UTC) could materially shift the USD side of this read
15:05 UTC
Weekly uptrend rolling over, lower highs since Thursday's top · RSI 36 · price 0.56728
0.5710 top, 0.5699 lower high, then lower low at 0.5668.
The week's advance from the 0.5652 weekly open peaked at the 0.5710 week high early Thursday. That push poked briefly above Wednesday's 0.5704 highs and reversed after the NZ Q3 CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8%). Price then set a lower high at 0.5699 in Asia and slid through the week trendline and Wednesday's 0.5672 low during London. It now sits on the 61.8% fib of the week's rally, with the 0.5668 session low just beneath. Price is below ema20 near 0.5683 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5668, 0.5652
Resistance: 0.5683, 0.5699, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5668 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 0.5652 weekly open as the next reference
Recovery back above ema20 near 0.5683 and the lower-high line would neutralise the post-CPI pullback; the 0.5699 lower high and 0.5710 week high sit above
Holding the 61.8% fib at 0.5671 keeps the move a deep retracement rather than a full reversal of the week's rally
US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations on Friday (13:45–14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via the USD side
Week high rejected; lower highs since Asia, Wednesday low breached.
NZD/USD advanced from the 0.5652 week open and the 0.5647 week low into a 0.5710 week high in early Asia today. Wednesday's 0.5704 top was taken out and then abandoned after the Q3 CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8%), so the move reads as a false break. Since then the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs through London. Price is back below EMA20 near 0.5684 and through the 61.8% fib of the week's advance at 0.5674, with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-30s. The day low at 0.5669 has also dipped under Wednesday's 0.5672 swing, breaking the week's higher-low sequence.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5652, 0.5647
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5684, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 closes below the 0.5669 day low extend the lower-low read and expose the 0.5652 week open and 0.5647 week low
A recovery above the 61.8% fib at 0.5674 and the ema20 near 0.5684 would negate the lower-highs trendline from the 0.5710 week high
Friday's US S&P PMIs and UoM inflation expectations (13:45–14:00 UTC) could materially shift the USD side of this read
RBNZ hike-pricing drift after the CPI miss remains the NZD-side driver into the Oct 28 decision
Higher-low sequence broken; lower highs since the post-CPI 0.5710 top.
The rally from the 0.5652 weekly open ran into a brief spike to the 0.5710 week high in early Asia, then reversed as the NZ Q3 CPI miss weighed. The push above the 0.5700 round number failed, and lower highs have formed since. London selling today broke the higher-low line and Wednesday's 0.5672 low, reaching a 0.5669 session low near the 61.8% retracement of the week's advance. Price sits below the ema20 (~0.5686) with RSI(14) near 41, and a soft USD is only partly offsetting the NZD weakness.
Support: 0.56692, 0.56587, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5669 session low and the 61.8% fib would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5659 monday low and the 0.5652 weekly open
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.5686 and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the pullback read
Acceptance back above the 0.5700 round number would put the 0.5710 week high back in play
US S&P Global PMIs and UoM inflation expectations on Fri from 13:45 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.5710 peak; week trendline broken.
The rally from the 0.5652 weekly open built higher lows into Wednesday's NY session and tagged a 0.5710 week high early in Thursday's Asia session. That spike came just after the NZ CPI miss (3.7% vs 3.8% y/y), and it was rejected; a recovering USD has since printed lower highs that pushed price back below EMA(20) near 0.5686 and through the week trendline. London's dip to a 0.5669 session low briefly undercut Wednesday's 0.5672 low before price settled near 0.5679, the 50% level of the week rally fib, with RSI(14) at 43 and well off Wednesday's highs.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5652, 0.5641
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5699, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5669 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5652 weekly open and the 0.5641 friday low
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.5686 and the broken week trendline would neutralise the pullback read; a close above the 0.5699 lower high reopens the 0.5710 week high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today and Friday's S&P PMIs could shift USD direction; repricing of the Oct 28 RBNZ hike odds remains the NZD-side driver
Lower high and lower low after week high; higher-low trendline broken.
The advance from Friday's 0.5641 low built through Tuesday and Wednesday London sessions and printed a week high at 0.5710 in early Asia today. That high came on a lower RSI(14) peak, and the soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% y/y vs 3.8%) knocked the pair back under 0.5700, a false break of Wednesday's 0.5704 highs. London has extended the slide below today's asia low at 0.5681 and through EMA(20) and the higher-low trendline, leaving price at the 50% retracement of the week's rally with the wed low just beneath.
Support: 0.56716, 0.56673, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56805, 0.56887, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the wed low at 0.5672 confirms a lower-low and exposes fib 61.8% at 0.5667
Recovery back above the asia low at 0.5681 and ema20 near 0.5689 would revive the higher-low trendline read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the weekly open at 0.5652 marks where the rally began
Higher lows intact; lower high after week-high rejection.
NZD/USD stair-stepped higher from Monday's 0.5652 weekly open, with London and NY sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday driving the push through 0.5700 as soft US housing data weighed on the dollar. The NZ Q3 CPI miss late Wednesday and an Asia-session rejection from the 0.5710 week high knocked price back to the 0.5680 Asia low, the 50% retracement of the weekly impulse, and the London bounce stalled at a 0.5699 lower high. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5691, flat on EMA(50) and on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.56994, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5680 Asia low breaks the rising trendline and the 50% retracement, ending this week's higher-low sequence
Loss of the Wednesday low at 0.5672 exposes the weekly open at 0.5652
Reclaim of EMA(20) and a close above the 0.5699 lower high reopens the 0.5710 week high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the weekly open intact; failed hold above 0.5700 after the CPI miss.
Since Monday's weekly open at 0.5652, NZDUSD has built higher lows, with the main legs coming in Tuesday's NY session and Wednesday's London-NY push through 0.5700. After the soft NZ Q3 CPI miss, Asia printed a week high at 0.5710 and then reversed into a 0.5681 Asia low. The London bounce faded at 0.5699, just under the 0.5700 psych level. Price is now back below EMA(20) near 0.5691 and sits on EMA(50), the rising trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the week rally near 0.5684, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.56914, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5681 asia low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 50% retracement near 0.5676 and the wed low at 0.5672
Recovery above ema20 and an H1 close back over 0.5700 psych would negate the false break read and reopen the 0.5710 week high
Holding the trendline would leave the Wednesday-Thursday pullback a retracement within the uptrend, with the weekly open at 0.5652 as the deeper structural floor
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today could shift USD tone and this read; RBNZ on Oct 28 remains the larger event risk
The advance from the 0.5647 weekly-open low has printed higher lows every session. Tuesday's and Wednesday's legs ran from Asia into London open on hawkish RBNZ pricing and a softer USD. The Q3 CPI miss whipsawed price: an early-Asia spike to the 0.5710 week high, on a lower RSI(14) peak than at the 0.5704 wed high, reversed to the 0.5681 post-CPI low, which held above the rising trendline and inside the 38.2–50% fib zone of the week's rally. Price now sits just under EMA(20) at 0.5693 with RSI(14) near 49, while EMA(50) at 0.5686 and the 0.5672 wed low sit beneath.
Support: 0.5686, 0.5681, 0.5672
Resistance: 0.5693, 0.5704, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5681 post-CPI low and the rising trendline breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5672 wed low (61.8% of the rally fib) exposes the 0.5652 weekly open
Reclaim of EMA(20) and a close above the 0.5704 wed high reopens the 0.5710 week high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Continued rejection near the 0.5700 round number keeps the post-CPI false break in play
Higher lows since the weekly open; post-CPI pullback held above prior swing lows.
NZDUSD has built higher lows from the 0.5652 weekly open. London-open legs on Tuesday and Wednesday did the lifting, and Wednesday's NY session pushed price through 0.5700. The softer NZ Q3 CPI print whipsawed Asia trade from a 0.5710 week high down to a 0.5680 post-cpi low, a pullback that held near the 38.2% of the rally fib and above the higher-lows trendline. Price has since reclaimed the EMA(20) near 0.5693 with RSI(14) back around 53, pressing into the 0.5704 wed high.
Support: 0.56932, 0.56805, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5680 post-cpi low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5672 wed low
Acceptance above the 0.5710 week high clears the wed high / week high cap that rejected price after CPI
Failure to hold the EMA(20) near 0.5693 returns price to the post-CPI range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; RBNZ hike pricing for Oct 28 remains the larger risk
NZDUSD has built higher lows since Monday's weekly open at 0.5652, with London and NY hours driving Tuesday's and Wednesday's pushes into the 0.5700 round number. Around the soft NZ Q3 CPI print (3.7% vs 3.8%), price spiked to a 0.5710 week high in early Asia and then reversed in a false break. The pullback held the cpi low at 0.5681, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the week fib and on the higher-low line. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) near 0.5692 with RSI(14) back near 50, while the Wed low at 0.5672 marks the last higher low.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5681 cpi low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the Wed low at 0.5672, near the 61.8% week fib
Reclaiming the 0.5700 round number and closing above the 0.5710 week high would negate the false-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Further erosion of RBNZ Oct 28 hike pricing after the CPI miss; a slide toward the 0.5652 weekly open would mark an unwind of the week's rally
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling after a failed push through 0.5700 · RSI 50 · price 0.56889
Higher lows since Monday; Thursday's 0.5710 week high reversed, pullback holding above Wednesday's low.
NZDUSD has stacked higher lows from the 0.5647 week low, and London sessions drove the Tuesday and Wednesday legs up to the 0.5704 wed high. The soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) was followed by a false break to a 0.5710 week high in the Asia session. That reversed to a 0.5681 thu low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week's impulse. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 0.5692, still above EMA(50), with RSI(14) back at 50 after cycling in the 60s.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56716, 0.56467
Resistance: 0.56921, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 0.5692 and the 0.5704 wed high reopens a test of the 0.5710 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5681 thu low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5672 wed low
A break below the 0.5672 wed low ends the week's higher-low sequence, with the 0.5647 week low next
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read; the RBNZ decision on Oct 28 remains the larger NZD risk
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading after a rejection at the week high · RSI 45 · price 0.56833
Higher lows since Monday; price pulled back to the 50% fib after the post-CPI spike.
From the 0.5652 weekly open, NZDUSD built higher lows Monday through Wednesday. London and NY drove Wednesday's push from the 0.5672 swing low to the 0.5700 psych handle. The softer NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) produced a brief spike to the 0.5710 week high, which faded through the Asia session as hike odds were trimmed. Price now sits back below EMA(20) near 0.5694, close to the 50% retracement of the 0.5655–0.5710 leg, with RSI(14) slipping to about 45.
Support: 0.56805, 0.56716, 0.56519
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5680 asia low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5672 swing low
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.5694 and the 0.5700 psych level would put the 0.5710 week high back in play
US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today could shift USD tone around the 50% fib
Further erosion of Oct 28 RBNZ hike pricing after the CPI miss would leave the weekly open at 0.5652 as the next reference
Higher lows each day this week; failed hold above 0.5700 at the week high.
NZDUSD has printed higher lows every day since the 0.5647 weekly open. The main legs came in Tuesday's NY session and late Wednesday, which carried price through the 0.5700 psych level. The soft Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) produced a whipsaw in Asia: a dip to the 0.5685 cpi low, a spike to the 0.5710 week high, then a rejection back below 0.5700. Price now sits on EMA(20) near the 23.6% retracement of the week's impulse, with RSI(14) back at 51 from the low 60s and Wednesday's 0.5704 prior high capping above.
Support: 0.56897, 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 closes below the 0.5690 session low and the 0.5685 cpi low would break the higher-lows trendline and the week's sequence
A slide toward the 0.5672 wed low (61.8% fib) would put the week's impulse at risk
Recovery above the 0.5700 psych and 0.5704 prior high would negate the false break; above the 0.5710 week high, the uptrend resumes
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, plus post-CPI repricing of RBNZ Oct 28 hike odds, could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 0.5700 · RSI 52 · price 0.56944
Higher lows daily since Monday, rejected above 0.5700.
NZDUSD has printed a higher low every day since the 0.5652 week open. London-open legs on Tuesday and Wednesday carried the advance, and NY hours pushed it through the 0.5700 psych level. The soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8% f/c) then produced a two-way Asia session: a dip to the 0.5685 cpi low, a spike to the 0.5710 week high, and a rejection back below 0.5700. That leaves price sitting on EMA(20) near 0.5694, with RSI(14) back to ~52 and the 23.6% retracement of the week impulse off Friday's 0.5641 low at the same spot.
Support: 0.56938, 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5685 cpi low, which also sits on the higher-lows trendline and the 38.2% retrace of the week impulse, breaks the daily higher-low sequence
Failure at the wed low (0.5672) would put price back inside Monday-Tuesday's range near the 50% retrace
Sustained trade back above 0.5700 psych and through the 0.5710 week high resumes the uptrend after the CPI rejection
Repeated H1 closes below ema20 would mark the first loss of the moving average since Wednesday's London open
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) and Friday's flash PMIs could shift USD and test this structure; RBNZ Oct 28 repricing sits behind it
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; post-CPI dip reclaimed.
NZD/USD has printed a higher low every day since Monday's 0.5652 weekly open, with London-led gains Tuesday and Wednesday and a late-Wednesday NY push through the 0.5700 round number. The soft Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8%) dropped the pair to a 0.5685 cpi low, near the 38.2% retracement of the week rally and above the higher-low trendline. Asia then reclaimed the move to a fresh week high at 0.5710, and price now sits above EMA(20) near 0.5695 with RSI(14) around 62, short of overbought.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56952, 0.56847
Resistance: 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5700 round number would turn the post-CPI reclaim into a false break
A break below the 0.5685 cpi low and the higher-low trendline ends this week's higher-low sequence
Sustained trade above the 0.5710 week high extends the breakout; a stall there leaves a range between 0.5685 and 0.5710
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) and Friday's flash PMIs could materially shift this read
Repricing of Oct 28 RBNZ hike odds after the CPI miss is the main NZD-side risk to the structure
00:04 UTC
Uptrend, testing week high · RSI 60 · price 0.57049
Daily higher lows since Monday, 0.5704-0.5705 capping.
A sequence of higher lows since Monday's London session lifted the pair from the 0.5652 weekly open to a week high at 0.5705. Wednesday's London-NY push from the 0.5672 wed low did most of the work. The soft NZ Q3 CPI (3.7% vs 3.8% f/c) knocked price to 0.5685 on the release bar, which is the 38.2% retracement of the week's leg, but that cpi low was bought back above the 0.5700 round number within two bars. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) near 0.5695 with RSI(14) around 60, while the 0.5704-0.5705 week high has capped three tests since Wednesday's NY session.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56847, 0.56716
Resistance: 0.57054
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5705 week high ends the three-test cap and extends the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5700 round number and EMA(20) near 0.5695 reopens the 0.5685 cpi low / 38.2% area
Break of the higher-low trendline near 0.5680 and the 0.5672 wed low (61.8%) would end this week's uptrend structure
US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) and flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; RBNZ hike pricing after the CPI miss is the NZD-side risk