Post-NFP breakout above london high, late-NY consolidation 1.4247–1.4261.
The NFP spike to the 1.4201 nfp low was fully reversed despite the 29K miss. CAD weakness carried the pair through the 1.4246 london high to a 1.4261 session high in NY, just shy of the 1.4262 multi-month high. Late NY has pulled back to 1.4247, holding a retest of the london high above the 38.2% of the nfp-high fib leg (~1.4238).
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4246 london high reopens the post-nfp low at 1.4224 and the 38.2% fib near 1.4238
M15 close above the 1.4261 session high clears the 1.4262 multi-month high, with 1.4300 round number next
Weekly close at 21:00 UTC; thin liquidity, so Monday's open gap risk matters more than the final bars
Mon ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Crude direction remains the CAD-specific lever behind the NY leg higher
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below the session high · RSI 45 · price 1.42515
Post-NFP higher low and breakout, now a tight late-NY consolidation.
The soft NFP print triggered a sweep to the 1.4201 nfp low, under the London low, which reversed within the bar. The NY rally then broke the 1.4246 pre-nfp high and tagged the 1.4261 session high, just shy of the 1.4262 multi-month high, as soft crude outweighed USD softness. Late NY is now holding a tight 1.4250–1.4261 consolidation, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR at about 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4246, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4250 range low opens a retest of the 1.4246 pre-nfp high; failure there exposes the 38.2% of the nfp leg near 1.4238
A break of the 1.4261 session high clears the 1.4262 multi-month high, with the 1.4300 round number next
A move back under the 50% of the nfp leg near 1.4231 would undo the post-NFP breakout read
Thin Friday close liquidity; Monday ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next catalyst that could reset this read
Tight late-NY range 1.4250–1.4261 above broken London high.
The NFP miss spiked USDCAD to the 1.4201 nfp low, below the Asian range, but the move reversed within the bar. Soft crude kept CAD heavy, and NY lifted through the 1.4246 london high to a 1.4261 session high, just under the 1.4262 multi-month mark. Price has since drifted to a 1.4250 late low with RSI(14) cooling to ~41 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42456, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 late low exposes the 1.4246 london high, which coincides with the 38.2% nfp-high fib zone near 1.4238
Break above the 1.4261 session high clears the 1.4262 multi-month level and puts the 1.4300 round number in view
Friday close into the weekend; Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could reopen the 1.4201 nfp low or extend the high
20:02 UTC
Post-NFP rally, stalling into late NY · RSI 40 · price 1.42503
Tight 1.4250–1.4261 range above broken London high.
The NFP miss at 12:30 UTC swept below the Asian low to 1.4201 before reversing. Despite the soft US print, CAD weakness drove a breakout above the London high at 1.4246 at 15:00 UTC, and price has held a tight band between the range floor at 1.4250 and the session high at 1.4261 since. Late in the NY session, price is drifting onto the range floor, with RSI(14) near 40 and the 0.236 fib of the post-NFP leg just below.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range floor exposes a retest of the London high at 1.4246
Loss of 1.4246 puts price back inside the NFP range, with its low at 1.4224 and the fib 0.382 near 1.4238 in play
Close above the 1.4261 session high clears the 1.4262 multi-month high, with the 1.4300 round number next
Friday close into thin liquidity, then Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
19:46 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, stalling late NY · RSI 39 · price 1.42502
Impulse to 1.4259 then tight 1.4250–1.4261 range; testing floor.
The NFP miss spiked USDCAD to 1.4201, a false break of the London low that was fully reversed. The pair then cleared the 1.4245 pre-nfp high and reached 1.4259 despite the soft USD read, a sign of CAD weakness. Since 15:15 UTC it has held a 10-pip box under the 1.4261 session high, just below the 1.4262 multi-month high, and late in the NY session it is sitting on the 1.4250 range floor with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4245, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range floor exposes the 1.4245 pre-nfp high, then the 38.2% of the post-nfp leg near 1.4238
Loss of the 1.4224 swing low would erase most of the post-NFP leg
Break above the 1.4261 session high and the 1.4262 multi-month high opens the 1.4300 round number
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 47 · price 1.42512
Post-NFP breakout into a tight 10-pip range, now testing range low.
The NFP miss sent a spike through the Asian low to 1.4201 that was fully reclaimed. The NY session then broke the 1.4245 London high and tagged 1.4261, just shy of the 1.4262 multi-month high, as soft crude kept CAD heavy despite broad USD weakness. Late in NY, a rejection at that session high has price back on the 1.4251 range low, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR compressed to about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.4251, 1.42456, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4251 range low exposes the 1.4245 London high, then the 1.4224 NY base where the post-NFP rally started
Close above the 1.4261 session high clears the multi-month high and opens the 1.4300 round number
Holding above the 38.2% of the NFP swing (~1.4238) keeps the breakout structure intact
Friday NY close thins liquidity; ISM Services (Mon) and Canada LFS (Oct 9) are the next scheduled risks
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near session high · RSI 58 · price 1.42551
USD/CAD shrugged off the US payrolls miss. The 12:30 UTC spike to the 1.4201 NFP low was bought, and with soft crude weighing on CAD, a NY-session breakout above the 1.4246 london high carried price to 1.4261. Since then a 1.4251–1.4261 consolidation has held through late NY, just under the 1.4262 multi-month high, with RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 session high and the 1.4262 multi-month high opens the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the 1.4251 range low puts a retest of the 1.4246 london high in play
Break back below the 1.4224 nfp chop low would undo the post-payrolls breakout and bring the 38.2–50% fib zone (1.4238–1.4231) into focus
Thin liquidity into the Friday close; Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, compressing at session high · RSI 64 · price 1.42599
Post-NFP breakout above London high, tight range 1.4251–1.4260.
USD/CAD absorbed the NFP-miss spike to 1.4201 and broke the 1.4245 London high during NY hours, with CAD underperforming a broadly softer dollar. Since then price has compressed in a 1.4251–1.4260 band just under the session high and the 1.4262 multi-mo high, RSI(14) near 64 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4245, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4262 multi-mo high extends the breakout
Loss of the 1.4251 range low exposes a retest of the 1.4245 london high
Break below 1.4237 (38.2% of the nfp-low fib) signals the post-NFP leg unwinding toward the 1.4224 post-nfp low
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekend; Mon ISM Services is the next scheduled risk
Post-NFP breakout above London high, tight range under session high.
USD/CAD wicked to the NFP low at 1.4201 on the payrolls miss, then reversed as CAD stayed heavy on soft crude. The pair broke through the London high at 1.4246 during NY hours. Price has since held a 1.4251–1.4260 range just under the session high and the 1.4262 multi-month high, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.42596, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 multi-month high extends the NY breakout
Loss of the 1.4251 range low exposes a retest of the London high at 1.4246
Break below the NY low at 1.4224 undoes the post-NFP breakout and puts the 50% fib of the NFP low-high move near 1.4231 in view
Late Friday NY trade into the weekend close; Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next USD risk
Post-NFP V-reversal, tight range under session high.
The NFP miss spiked USDCAD to the 1.4201 nfp low, sweeping the Asian low at 1.4209, but the move fully reversed and NY broke the 1.4246 london high. The pair is rising despite soft US data, which fits the digest's read of CAD weakness on softer crude. Price has held a 1.4251–1.4260 range through late NY, sitting just under the session high and the 1.4262 multi-mo high.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 multi-mo high extends the breakout past the session high
Loss of the 1.4251 range floor puts a retest of the 1.4246 london high in play
A break below the 38.2% fib of the nfp low-to-high leg near 1.4237 undercuts the reversal read
Thin liquidity into the Friday close can distort the range; ISM Services on Mon Oct 5 is the next USD driver
Post-NFP breakout above London high, tight flag 1.4251–1.4260.
The NFP miss produced a sweep of the Asian low to 1.4201 that reversed in the same bar. NY then broke the 1.4246 London high to a 1.4260 session high despite broad USD weakness, a move that reads as CAD-specific softness. Price has since held a tight 1.4251–1.4260 flag late in NY hours, with RSI(14) cooling to ~60 and ATR(14) contracting to ~7 pips.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4260 session high and the 1.4262 multi-month high extends the breakout and brings the 1.4300 round number into view
A loss of the 1.4251 flag low exposes a retest of the 1.4246 London high, with the 38.2% fib at 1.4237 below that
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity after London close; Monday's US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled driver
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the cycle high · RSI 71 · price 1.42585
Post-NFP breakout above the London high, tight consolidation late NY.
The NFP miss swept the Asian low to 1.4201 before reversing. CAD weakness outweighed the softer USD, and the NY rally broke the London high at 1.4246 to a 1.4259 session high. Price is now consolidating in a 1.4251–1.4259 band after London close, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 1.4262 cycle high just overhead.
Support: 1.4251, 1.42456
Resistance: 1.42591, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 cycle high extends the breakout into fresh highs
Loss of the 1.4251 consol low opens a retest of the 1.4246 London high
Back below the London high puts the 38.2% retrace of the NFP swing fib near 1.4237 in play
Thin Friday-close liquidity; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The NFP miss produced a spike to 1.4201 that swept the Asian low near 1.4209 and was reclaimed. NY then broke the 1.4246 prior high to a 1.4259 session high despite the soft USD tone, a CAD-led move on softer crude. Price has held a tight 1.4251–1.4259 consolidation for two hours just under the 1.4262 multi-month high, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4262 multi-month high extends the breakout toward the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the 1.4251 consol low and the 1.4246 prior high reopens the 1.4224 swing low and the rising lows trendline
Late-Friday NY trade into the weekend thins liquidity; Monday's ISM Services could materially shift this read
A second rejection at the 1.4259 session high would leave a double cap under the multi-month high
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating at highs · RSI 71 · price 1.42561
The NFP miss spiked USD/CAD to an nfp low of 1.4201, but the dip was bought, and the NY rally broke the 1.4245 prior high. Price is now consolidating just under the 1.4259 session high after London close, a few pips shy of the 1.4262 cycle high. CAD weakness is doing the lifting despite soft US payrolls, and RSI(14) is near 71.
Support: 1.4245, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 cycle high signals trend extension beyond the session high
Slip back below the 1.4245 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4224 swing low exposes the 1.4201 nfp low and the 38.2–50% fib of the nfp low-to-high leg
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; crude direction remains the CAD lever into Monday's ISM Services
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 73 · price 1.42571
Post-NFP sweep to 1.4201 reversed; higher low at 1.4224, break of london high.
The NFP miss produced a spike to the nfp low at 1.4201 that was fully reversed. After the nfp base held at 1.4224, NY hours pushed through the london high at 1.4246 to a day high of 1.4259. Price is now compressing just under the 1.4262 multi-mo hi after London close, with RSI(14) near 73.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 multi-mo hi extends the breakout toward the 1.4300 round number
Slip back below the 1.4246 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4224 nfp base (61.8% fib) breaks the post-nfp lows trendline
Friday late-NY thin liquidity and Monday's ISM Services (14:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Uptrend after NFP reversal, stalling below high · RSI 67 · price 1.4256
Higher lows from the NFP spike low; tight flag beneath the session high.
The 29K NFP miss spiked price to 1.4201, sweeping the Asian low. The dip reversed as the USD selloff stayed shallow, and NY broke the London high at 1.4246 to set a session high at 1.4259, just under the 1.4262 18m high. Late in the NY session, price is holding a tight flag above the 1.4251 flag low, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 18m high confirms trend extension and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4251 flag low and the 1.4246 london high retest turns the breakout into a stall
Loss of the 1.4224 post-NFP higher low breaks the rising trendline and the reversal structure
Monday ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read after the weekend
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating at session high · RSI 69 · price 1.42546
Post-NFP higher lows, London high broken, tight range under 1.4259.
The 29K NFP miss sparked a spike to the 1.4201 nfp low that swept the Asian low near 1.4209 and was fully reversed. NY hours then built higher lows off the 1.4224 ny swing low and broke the 1.4246 london high to a 1.4259 session high, with price now holding a tight range just beneath it as CAD stays heavy. RSI(14) is near 69: firm, not extreme.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4246 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Break of 1.4259 session high puts the 1.4262 multi-mo hi in play
Pullback below the 38.2% fib near 1.4237 and the 1.4224 ny swing low would undercut the post-NFP higher-low sequence
Friday NY afternoon into the weekly close; liquidity thins and crude swings remain the CAD lever
The weak NFP print (29K vs 90K) spiked price to a 1.4201 nfp low below the Asian low, and that break was reclaimed within the bar as CAD weakness on soft crude outweighed the softer USD. NY then broke out of the 1.4224–1.4237 post-data range and cleared the 1.4246 london high to a 1.4259 session high. Price is now consolidating just under the 1.4262 multi-mo high, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) around 11 pips.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4246 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4237 range top reopens the 1.4201 nfp low and the post-nfp lows trendline
A close above the 1.4259 session high and 1.4262 multi-mo high extends the NY range expansion
Liquidity thins in late Friday NY hours; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Post-NFP sweep reclaimed, breakout above London high.
The NFP miss spiked USDCAD to the 1.4201 nfp low, a sweep below the London low that was bought back within the hour, consistent with the digest's shallow USD reaction. A NY-session breakout through the 1.4246 London high has since printed a session high at 1.4259, just under the 1.4262 prior high, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4235, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.4246 London high on any retest keeps the breakout intact; a return below the 1.4235 Asian high would mark it a false break
M15 close above the 1.4262 prior high extends the move; rejection there leaves a stalled test of the session high
Loss of the 1.4201 NFP low would undo the entire post-payrolls recovery
Late-Friday NY liquidity thins into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
Higher lows from the NFP spike low; London high broken in NY.
The 29K NFP miss spiked the pair to the 1.4201 NFP low, sweeping the Asian low at 1.4209 before it was reclaimed within the hour. Price then built an NY base at 1.4224–1.4227 and broke the 1.4246 London high, tagging 1.4259 just under the prior high. RSI(14) sits at 61, not stretched.
Support: 1.42456, 1.4224, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42595, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4260 prior high exposes the 1.4262 multi-month high
Slip back below the 1.4246 London high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.4224 NY base reopens the 1.4201 NFP low and voids the higher-low sequence
Late Friday NY trade into the close; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next scheduled risk
Post-NFP range broken higher, testing London high.
The 29K NFP miss spiked USDCAD to the nfp low at 1.4201, but the bar closed near 1.4228 and the dollar weakness did not extend here. Price then held a 1.4224–1.4237 range (range low to range top). It broke out over the last 30 minutes of the NY session and is back at the 1.4247 london high, completing a full retrace of the NFP swing.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4247, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4247 london high opens the 1.4262 prior high
Slip back below the 1.4237 range top returns price to the post-NFP range, with 1.4224 range low the next reference
Loss of 1.4201 nfp low invalidates the recovery read
Thin post-London liquidity into Friday close; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next USD catalyst
15:03 UTC
Flat after NFP whipsaw, higher lows since spike · RSI 46 · price 1.42326
Post-NFP range 1.4224–1.4238 inside London high / NFP spike low.
The 29K NFP miss spiked USD/CAD to an nfp spike low at 1.4201, sweeping the Asian low at 1.4209 before the move was bought back within the hour. Price is now compressing mid-NY session between the range low at 1.4224 and range high at 1.4238, with post-NFP lows rising and RSI(14) neutral near 46. The London high at 1.4246 caps above.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4216, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4238 range high exposes the 1.4246 london high, then yesterday's 1.4262 prior high
Loss of the 1.4224 range low breaks the rising post-NFP lows and opens the 1.4216 post-nfp low
Break of the 1.4201 nfp spike low would turn the NFP reaction into a lower-low below the Asian range
London close and Friday's thinning NY liquidity can distort range edges into the weekly close
London leg up to 1.4246 erased by NFP spike; NY compressing 1.4216–1.4237.
The London advance from 1.4209 topped at the 1.4246 London high. The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) then spiked the pair to the 1.4201 nfp low, a sweep below the Asian range low that was quickly reclaimed. Mid-NY, price is pinned between the 1.4216 range low and the 1.4237 range top under a lower-highs line, sitting on a 1.4224 minor low, with RSI(14) neutral near 42.
Support: 1.4224, 1.4216, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 range top breaks the lower highs and puts the 1.4246 London high back in play, with the 1.4262 prior high beyond
Failure to hold the 1.4224 minor low exposes the 1.4216 range low
A break below the 1.4201 nfp low negates the sweep-and-reclaim read
Liquidity thins into London close and the Friday finish; no scheduled US/CA data in the next 8h
14:31 UTC
Post-NFP chop after a London advance · RSI 44 · price 1.42295
NFP spike swept the Asian low and was reclaimed; tight range 1.4216–1.4237 since.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a spike to the 1.4201 nfp spike low. That move swept the Asian low at 1.4209 and was fully reclaimed within the bar. Since then, NY hours have consolidated between the 1.4216 range low and the 1.4237 range high, holding near the 50% of the London leg and just under EMA20, with the 1.4246 London high capping above.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4246
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 range low reopens the 1.4209 Asian low and the 1.4201 nfp spike low
M15 close above the 1.4237 range high exposes the 1.4246 London high
Loss of the 61.8% of the London leg near 1.4223 would weaken the post-sweep recovery
Liquidity typically thins into the Friday NY close; ISM Services on Mon 14:00 GMT is the next USD catalyst
14:17 UTC
Sideways, post-NFP chop around EMA20 · RSI 47 · price 1.42315
NFP spike swept the Asian low and was reclaimed, now ranging 1.4216–1.4237.
London lifted the pair above the Asian range high to a 1.4246 london high. The NFP miss then spiked price through the Asian low to the 1.4201 nfp low, but the move was reclaimed within the bar, a muted USD reaction with CAD still heavy. Since then the first hours of NY have chopped between the 1.4216 post-nfp low and a 1.4237 range top, holding the 61.8% fib of the London rally at 1.4223 with price flat on EMA20.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4216, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 range top reopens the 1.4246 london high and the 1.4262 prior high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.4223 and the 1.4216 post-nfp low exposes the 1.4201 nfp low
Friday NY afternoon liquidity thins into the weekend; ISM Services Mon Oct 5 is the next scheduled USD risk
14:03 UTC
London uptrend broken, post-NFP chop · RSI 46 · price 1.42292
False break below Asian low, now ranging 1.4216–1.4237.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked price to the 1.4201 nfp low, a false break of the 1.4209 asian low that was reclaimed within the bar, and it also broke the rising london trend line. Since then NY session price has chopped between the 1.4216 post-nfp low and the 1.4237 rebound high, near the 50–61.8% zone of the london rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and price below EMA20.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 post-nfp low exposes the 1.4209 asian low and 1.4201 nfp low
Close above the 1.4237 rebound high reopens the 1.4246 london high, with the 1.4262 prior high beyond
Rejection on a retest of the broken london trend line from below keeps the London uptrend read invalidated
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT may extend post-NFP volatility in the NY session
13:46 UTC
London advance reversed by NFP, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.42266
Post-NFP range 1.4216–1.4237 after a sweep of the Asian low.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) knocked USDCAD off the 1.4246 London high through the 1.4209 Asian low to 1.4201. That sweep reversed straight back into a 1.4216–1.4237 post-NFP range, with price near the 50% retrace of the NFP drop fib. RSI(14) sits at about 45 and ATR(14) has jumped to roughly 8.6 pips, with price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.42163, 1.42089, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42374, 1.42456, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4237 post-NFP high reopens the 1.4246 London high and the 1.4262 prior high
Loss of the 1.4216 higher low exposes the 1.4209 Asian low and the 1.4201 NFP low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT, the next bar, could extend the post-NFP swings
13:31 UTC
Intraday range after NFP spike, momentum neutral · RSI 45 · price 1.42287
London higher lows to 1.4246, NFP sweep to 1.4201 rejected, chop 1.4216–1.4237.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) knocked USDCAD through the Asian range low and London low to the 1.4201 NFP low. The spike was bought back within the bar, and price now sits near the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.4246 London high. Post-NFP swings are contained between the 1.4216 post-NFP low and the 1.4237 bounce high. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and price is pinned to the EMA50.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4237, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4216 post-NFP low reopens the 1.4201 NFP low
A close above the 1.4237 bounce high and the 1.4246 London high reopens the 1.4262 prior high
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC; ATR(14) has expanded to ~9 pips since the NFP bar
NFP false break below Asian low, reclaimed back to range top.
London lifted USDCAD through the 1.4235 asian high to a 1.4246 london high. The broad NFP miss (29K vs 90K) then spiked price to a 1.4201 nfp low, a false break of the 1.4209 asian low. That move was fully rejected within three bars, and price now sits back near the asian high, above the 61.8% retrace of the nfp spike. RSI(14) is neutral at ~51 and ATR has expanded to ~9 pips.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high reopens the 1.4246 london high, with the 1.4262 prior high beyond
Loss of the 1.4216 post-nfp low exposes the 1.4209 asian low and the 1.4201 nfp low
Holding above the 61.8% retrace of the nfp spike (~1.4229) keeps the rejection read intact
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend post-NFP volatility in the NY session
London rally to 1.4246 unwound. Asian low swept on NFP and reclaimed, with a lower high at 1.4231..
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) spiked USDCAD to an nfp low of 1.4201, sweeping the 1.4209 asian low before a sharp rejection. The follow-up bar stalled at a post-nfp hi of 1.4231 and erased London's run to the 1.4246 london high. Price now sits under EMA20/50 at roughly the 38.2% level of the nfp drop fib, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR expanded to about 8 pips.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4209 asian low turns the sweep into a range break toward the 1.4201 nfp low and 1.4200
Reclaim of the 1.4231 post-nfp hi (61.8% of the nfp drop fib) reopens the 1.4246 london high
Prior high at 1.4262 caps the 24h range; only relevant if the London high gives way
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend post-NFP volatility in the NY session
London higher-high/higher-low chain broken by the NFP spike. Price is back inside the Asian range, mid-fib..
London broke above the Asian range top (1.4235) and set a 1.4246 session high. The NFP bar then spiked 28 pips to 1.4201, sweeping the Asian low at 1.4209, before demand pulled the close back to 1.4228, near the 50% fib of the London rally. Price sits just under both EMAs in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and ATR elevated by the release bar.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4233, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4209 asian low turns the NFP wick into a lower-low and puts the 1.4201 nfp low back in play
Reclaim of the 1.4233 pre-nfp low reopens the 1.4246 session high and the 1.4262 prior high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib near 1.4223 weakens the London rally structure
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT could extend the post-NFP volatility
12:31 UTC
London uptrend broken, two-way after NFP · RSI 41 · price 1.42207
NFP spike swept the London low and snapped back inside the Asian range.
London built a higher-low chain from the 1.4209 london low to a 1.4246 session high, then faded into the 12:30 GMT NFP release. The NFP spike swept to a 1.4201 nfp low, below both the London and Asian lows, broke the London rising line, and rebounded to 1.4221, back inside the 1.4211–1.4235 Asian range. RSI(14) is near 41, and ATR is inflating on the release bar.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
NFP bar is still developing. A close back below the 1.4209 london low would turn the sweep into a lower low.
Hold above 1.4209 with an M15 close over the 1.4235 asian high would mark the sweep as a false break and bring the 1.4246 session high back into view.
1.4262 prior high (multi-month high) caps the upside if the wage and payrolls detail revive Fed hike pricing.
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT is minor; NFP digestion through NY hours dominates the read.
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 61 · price 1.4243
Higher-low chain since 06:00 UTC; Asian range broken higher, double test of 1.4246.
London lifted USDCAD from the 1.4209 session low through the Asian range high near 1.4235, then stalled twice at the 1.4246 session high. The 12:00 UTC dip held 1.4233, a swing low just above the 38.2% fib, keeping the rising trendline intact into US payrolls.
Support: 1.4233, 1.4227, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) lands on the next bar; ATR of ~5 pips understates the likely release range
M15 close above the 1.4246 session high opens the 1.4262 prior high
Close below the 1.4233 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the fib 50% at 1.4227, then the 1.4209 session low
12:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London open, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 1.42369
Asian range broken higher; higher lows since 1.4209, first fade off the session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4235 and ran to a 1.4246 session high. The 11:45 UTC bar faded back to 1.4237, a 23.6% retrace of the 1.4209 day low to session high leg, as the dollar firms into NFP and softer crude weighs on CAD. Price is resting on the Asian high, with the 1.4231 swing low just below and yesterday's 1.4262 prior high capping above.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4231, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4231 swing low puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 1.4209 day low
Close above the 1.4246 session high opens yesterday's 1.4262 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT will likely expand range well beyond the ~5-pip ATR and could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, consolidating below session high.
London lifted USDCAD from the 1.4209 Asian low through the 1.4235 Asian high as softer crude weighed on CAD, building a clean higher-low chain along the rising trendline. Price is stalling just under the 1.4246 session high with RSI(14) near 67, about 17 pips below yesterday's 1.4262 prior high.
Support: 1.42351, 1.42323, 1.42089
Resistance: 1.42456, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP and wages at 12:30 GMT will likely set the next leg; ATR of ~5 pips understates the potential move
M15 close above the 1.4246 session high opens the path to the 1.4262 prior high
Break of the 1.4232 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 1.4235 asian high retest at risk of failing
Return below the Asian high exposes the 1.4209 asian low and the fib 61.8% of the London leg
London break above Asian range, HH/HL chain off 1.4209.
London lifted USD/CAD off the 1.4209 session low and out of the Asian range above the 1.4236 asian high. Price has since built a higher-low trendline and now sits near 1.4246, about a 69% retrace of yesterday's NY slide from the 1.4262 prior high, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR around 5 pips ahead of the US jobs report.
Support: 1.4236, 1.4232, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4251, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h) can override the intraday structure in either direction
Acceptance above the 1.4251 ny swing high opens the 1.4262 prior high
M15 close below the 1.4232 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
A return below the 1.4236 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break, with the 1.4209 session low next
London HH/HL chain above Asian range, at 61.8% fib.
London has built a clean higher-low chain off the 1.4209 session low, broke the Asian high at 1.4235 and is now pressing the 61.8% fib retrace of yesterday's 1.4262 prior high to 1.4209 drop, near 1.4242. RSI(14) ~66 and ATR ~5 pips. Softer crude keeps CAD heavy into NFP.
Support: 1.42351, 1.42306, 1.42089
Resistance: 1.42417, 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4231 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the London higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.4242 opens the 1.4250 round number and the 1.4262 prior high
Return inside the Asian range below 1.4235 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4209 session low would reverse the London structure
US NFP at 12:30 GMT likely to override intraday structure; a ~5-pip ATR understates the event range
Demand stepped in at the 1.4209 session low just before London, and the session has since stacked higher lows through the Asian high at 1.4235 to a 1.4240 session high. The 10:30 GMT dip to the 1.4231 swing low recovered back above the Asian high, and RSI(14) sits near 66 as USD holds firm into NFP.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4231, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~1h45) could materially shift this read; ATR of ~5 pips is likely to expand sharply
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4235 and the 1.4231 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4240 session high opens the path to the 1.4262 prior high
Loss of the 50% fib of the 1.4209–1.4240 leg (~1.4225) puts the session low back in play
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend since London open · RSI 65 · price 1.42352
HH/HL chain off 1.4209; retesting broken Asian high.
London reversed the Asia slide from the 1.4209 session low with a clean higher-low chain, breaking the 1.4235 Asian high to print a 1.4240 London high. The latest bar is retesting the Asian high from above. The London leg tracks the firm USD tone into NFP rather than a CAD-specific driver, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4231, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) can override this structure; the 1.4262 multi-mo hi and 1.4209 session low frame the reaction
M15 close back below the 1.4231 higher low breaks the London trendline and turns the Asian high breakout into a false break
Close above the 1.4240 London high extends the HH chain toward the 1.4262 multi-mo hi
Loss of the 50% retrace of the London leg near 1.4225 would erase most of the London session gains
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend through London, RSI near 70 · RSI 69 · price 1.42385
Asian low swept, then a higher-high/higher-low chain above the Asian range.
London open swept the Asian low to 1.4209, then reversed through the Asian high at 1.4235 to a session high of 1.4239. The rising trendline off 1.4209 is intact, with RSI(14) near 69 and USD consolidating ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.42351, 1.42305, 1.42178
Resistance: 1.42392, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~5 pips
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4235 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4230 swing low and the London trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4218 higher low
Clearance of the 1.4239 session high opens the path toward the 1.4262 prior high (multi-month high)
10:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the session low · RSI 67 · price 1.42366
Higher lows through London, marginal break of Asian high.
London lifted USDCAD off the 1.4209 session low in a steady higher-low chain along a rising trendline, nudging past the 1.4235 asian high to a 1.4238 session high. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR is about 5 pips as price holds firm into US payrolls.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4256, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Slip back under the 1.4235 asian high would mark the push as a false break
M15 close below the rising trendline and 1.4218 london hl breaks the higher-low chain
Sustained trade above the 1.4238 session high opens the 1.4256 swing high and 1.4262 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; CAD short positioning makes the reaction two-sided
09:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 68 · price 1.42352
Higher lows off 1.4209, pressing the Asian range top.
London lifted USDCAD off the 1.4209 day low, carving a higher low at 1.4231 above the 1.4218 swing low. Price is stalling under the Asian high at 1.4235–1.4236 as the USD firms into today's jobs report. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4236 asian high opens the path toward the 1.4262 prior high
Loss of the 1.4231 higher low puts the 1.4218 swing low and the support trendline back in focus
A break below the 1.4209 day low invalidates the intraday higher-low chain
US NFP at 12:30 GMT, about 2h45m out, could materially shift this read and widen ranges well beyond the current ATR
London lifted USD/CAD off the 1.4209 session low into a retest of the asian high at 1.4235–36, with a clean chain of higher lows. Momentum is stalling just under that level, RSI(14) near 62, as softer crude and a firm USD hold the pair in a tight pre-NFP range.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4236 asian high opens the path toward the 1.4262 prior high
Break below the 1.4218 swing low ends the higher-low sequence from the session low
Loss of the 1.4209 session low flips the London rally into a failed retest
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft print is the CAD short-covering scenario
09:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, ATR modest · RSI 61 · price 1.42323
London sweep of Asian low, then HH/HL chain into Asian high.
London opened with a sweep of the Asian low to 1.4209, then printed a higher-low chain back up to retest the Asian high at 1.4236. Softer crude kept CAD heavy, and RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched. Thursday's 1.4262 prior high caps the range, with US NFP ahead.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4236 Asian high opens the path to the 1.4262 prior high
Break of the 1.4218 higher low and the London higher-lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain; 50% of the London rally sits near 1.4222
Loss of the 1.4209 London low turns the sweep into a lower-low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, momentum moderate · RSI 66 · price 1.42342
Higher lows since 06:00 UTC, pressing the Asian range high.
Pre-London dip through the Asian low failed at the 1.4209 session low. The London leg since then has printed higher lows at the 1.4218 london hl and is now testing the 1.4236 asian high, with RSI(14) near 66. USD is firm into NFP and CAD is soft on lower crude, with the 1.4262 prior high from Thursday's NY session above.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4262
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4236 asian high opens the path to the 1.4262 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4218 london hl breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4209 session low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read. A strong print or hot wages would bring the prior high into focus, while a soft print would put the session low back in play.
London reversed a brief false break of the Asian low at the 1.4209 session low and has since printed higher highs and higher lows, pushing back to the 38.2% fib of Thursday's NY-session drop from 1.4262 as the USD stays firm into NFP. Price is now pressing the Asian high at 1.4235, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched.
Support: 1.42178, 1.42089
Resistance: 1.42351, 1.42417, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 Asian high exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4242, then the 1.4262 prior high
Loss of the 1.4218 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HH/HL chain, with the 1.4209 session low next
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read; ~6-pip ATR likely to expand sharply
08:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 64 · price 1.42312
HL chain off 1.4209 session low, testing Asian high.
London has reversed the Asia slide from the 1.4209 session low, printing higher lows at 1.4218 and clearing the 1.4227 London high to press the 1.4235 Asian high. The move comes as softer crude weighs on CAD into NFP, RSI(14) at 64 and not stretched.
Support: 1.4227, 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 Asian high opens the 1.4262 prior high (multi-month top)
Slip back below the 1.4227 London high marks a failed breakout
Loss of the 1.4218 London HL and the trendline breaks the higher-low chain toward the 1.4209 session low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
Higher low off Asian range low, capped at London high.
London open lifted USDCAD off the 1.4209 Asian low, putting in a london low at 1.4218, but the london high at 1.4227 rejected twice as positions square into NFP. Price sits mid-Asian range and around the 38.2% retrace of the drop from yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4262.
Support: 1.42178, 1.42089
Resistance: 1.42272, 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4227 london high opens the 1.4235 asian high
Break of the London rising support and 1.4218 london low exposes the 1.4209 asian low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; prior high at 1.4262 is the multi-month cap
Lower highs intact; London opened inside Asian range 1.4209–1.4235.
USDCAD has bled from the 1.4262 prior high through NY and Asia as softer crude weighed. The Asian high at 1.4235 extended the lower-highs line, and the 1.4209 session low printed pre-London. Early London bounced into 1.4227 (london high), just under the 38.2% of the decline fib, and met rejection; price now sits on EMA50 near 1.4222.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4209, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4235 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.4218 london low exposes the 1.4209 session low, then the 1.4200 round number
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the main catalyst. A strong print revives the Fed-hike bid toward 1.4262; a soft one risks CAD short-covering through 1.4200
07:46 UTC
Downtrend from prior high, London bounce under way · RSI 64 · price 1.42269
Lower highs from 1.4262, higher lows forming since 1.4209 day low.
The slide from the 1.4262 prior high bottomed at the 1.4209 day low around 06:00 UTC, after softer crude weighed on CAD less than the USD consolidation did through Asia. Early London has built higher lows off the 1.4218 london pivot and broken the Asian downtrend line. Price sits at 1.4227, just under the 38.2% retrace and the 1.4235 asian high.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4209
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high puts the 1.4262 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.4218 london pivot undercuts the London higher-low chain
A break of the 1.4209 day low resumes the downtrend sequence
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, bounce at London open · RSI 54 · price 1.42204
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4262; testing falling trendline.
Lower highs from the 1.4262 prior high carried through Asia to an asian low at 1.4209. The London open bounce has lifted price to the falling trendline and the 23.6% fib near 1.4220, with the 1.4224 london high capping so far. Price is coiling into today's NFP, with CAD heavy on softer crude but USD/CAD stretched after its run.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4209 asian low resumes lower lows toward the 1.4200 round number
US NFP at 12:30 GMT, during the NY session, could materially shift this read; 1.4262 prior high is the upside marker on a strong print
A stall at the 1.4224 london high keeps the trendline intact
07:03 UTC
Downtrend from 1.4262, rebounding into London open · RSI 55 · price 1.4221
Lower highs since 1.4262; Asian low swept to 1.4209, bounce to the 50% fib.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4262 prior high set during NY hours. Late in the Asia session price swept the Asian low to a 1.4209 session low, then rebounded about 13 pips into London open as crude dipped. Price now sits at the 50% fib of the Asian leg near 1.4222, pressing the falling trendline with the ema50 at 1.4223 just overhead.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read and break the 1.4209–1.4235 band
Close above the asian high at 1.4235 breaks the lower-high chain, with the prior high at 1.4262 next above
Failure to hold the 1.4209 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Rejection at the ema50 and falling trendline keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4262; bounce testing descending trendline.
USDCAD extended the slide from yesterday's 1.4262 prior high through Asia, and a false break to the 1.4209 asian low was reclaimed into a 1.4219 close ahead of London open. Price is pressing the descending trendline off the 1.4235 asian high with RSI(14) neutral near 53, as USD holds firm but pauses into NFP.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4229–1.4235
Failure to hold the 1.4209 asian low confirms another lower-low, with the 1.4200 round number next
Rejection back below the descending trendline keeps the downtrend read intact
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~5.75h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 40 · price 1.42127
Lower-high sequence from 1.4262; Asian bounce capped at 1.4235, fresh low 1.4209.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since yesterday's 1.4262 prior high in the NY session. The Asian rebound stalled at the 1.4235 asian high, and the move back down set a new swing low at 1.4209 in the early European hours, with the 1.4219 lower high capping since. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40 as the pair drifts into NFP; the digest frames CAD as heavy but USD/CAD as stretched.
Support: 1.42089, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42186, 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; ATR near 4 pips will expand sharply
M15 close above the 1.4219 lower high would end the latest leg down
M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline from 1.4262
Failure to hold the 1.4209 swing low exposes the 1.4200 round number
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressed into London open · RSI 41 · price 1.42144
Lower highs from the Asian high, fresh session low probed then reclaimed.
USD/CAD has drifted lower from the 1.4235 Asian high into the London open. The 1.4219 late-NY low has turned into a broken low, and the 06:00 UTC bar swept to a 1.4209 session low before recovering, extending the slide from Thursday's 1.4262 prior high as the dollar pauses into NFP. A descending trendline off the Asian high caps each bounce, with ATR(14) near 4 pips and RSI(14) around 41: a tight pre-data range rather than a stretched move.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4219, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.4219 broken low invalidates the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.4235 Asian high
Acceptance below the 1.4209 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; 1.4262 prior high is the upside reference on a strong print
Lower highs from 1.4262; Asia made a lower low at 1.4211, now basing.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Thursday's NY prior high at 1.4262 as the USD eased into NFP. Asia faded from the asian high at 1.4235 to a session low at 1.4211. A late-Asia bounce high at 1.4219 is stalling at EMA20, with M15 ranges compressed to about 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42106, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42186, 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
M15 close above the 1.4219 bounce high and the asian lower highs line breaks the intraday down-sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4235 asian high would neutralise the Asia fade
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read; the 1.4262 prior high is the upside reference on a hot print
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4262; late-Asia compression above 1.4211.
USD/CAD has stepped lower from the 1.4262 prior high set during NY hours. The Asian bounce to 1.4235 (Asian high) faded, and the Asian leg extended to a fresh session low at 1.4211 as USD eased into NFP. Price is now compressing in a 5-pip band just under the 1.4217 NY close low ahead of London open, with the lower-highs line intact and RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.42106, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42173, 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4217 NY close low ends the late-Asia breakdown; above the 1.4235 Asian high breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts 1.4200 in focus, a hot one puts the 1.4262 prior high back in play
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4262; basing at the session low in late Asia.
Lower highs since yesterday's 1.4262 NY high. Asia faded from its 1.4235 asian high and broke the 1.4217 prior low to a 1.4211 session low, even with USD firm near 18-month highs. Price is now basing just above that low into London open, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 3 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.42106, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42173, 1.42351
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4217 prior low and the 1.4220 fib 38.2% of the asian leg eases the lower-low sequence
Break of the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4235 asian high breaks the lower highs trendline
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read from compressed conditions
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.4262; tight base above 1.4211.
Late in the Asia session, USDCAD has extended the lower-high, lower-low chain from yesterday's 1.4262 prior high. It faded from the 1.4235 Asia high to a 1.4211 session low and now sits back below the 1.4217 NY low, in line with the slight Asian USD pullback as yields eased. Bars have compressed to roughly 3 pips each into a flat base ahead of US NFP.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4217 NY low and the Asia leg fib 38.2% (~1.4220) would signal a deeper retrace toward the 1.4235 Asia high
Break of the lower highs trendline and the 1.4235 Asia high invalidates the downtrend read and puts the 1.4262 prior high back in play
Loss of the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number, then the Wed low at 1.4155
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first range-expansion test; US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4262; Asia extended below the prior NY low.
Lower highs since the 1.4262 NY high. Late NY broke the 1.4230 range floor, and Asia rejected at the 1.4235 asian high before slipping through the 1.4217 ny low to a 1.4211 session low, in step with the softer-yield USD pullback. Price is basing just above that low in late Asia, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR around 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4235
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4217 ny low negates the Asian extension lower
Failure to hold the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Recovery through ~1.4226, the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg and the falling trendline from 1.4262, ends the lower-high sequence; the asian high at 1.4235 sits above
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows into Asia · RSI 27 · price 1.42122
Broke below the 1.4230 range floor late NY; Asia rebound failed at 1.4235.
Thursday's 1.4230–1.4262 range gave way late in NY. The Asia session rebound stalled at the 1.4235 asian high, a lower high under the descending trendline, before the Asia sell-off printed a fresh session low at 1.4211. RSI(14) near 27 with ATR around 3.4 pips; price is drifting toward the 1.4200 round number and has slipped from the ~1.4230-1.4240 Asia area flagged in the CAD digest as markets wait for NFP.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the CAD digest flags 1.4200 round number and the 1.4155 wed low on a soft print
Failure to hold the 1.4211 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4200
M15 close back above the 1.4217 broken low and the lower highs trendline near 1.4227 would stall the slide; that zone is near the 50% of the Asia sell-off fib
A reclaim of the 1.4235 asian high negates the downtrend read and reopens the 1.4262 range top
Lower highs from 1.4262; late-Asia break below the prior NY low.
Asia session faded from the 1.4235 asian high, broke the 1.4218 broken low (prior NY low) and printed a session low at 1.4211 into late Asia. The move extends a chain of lower highs from yesterday's 1.4262 day high. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme, and the drift lower runs against the digest's firm-USD tone, with crowded CAD shorts heading into NFP.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4218, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4218 broken low would neutralise the range break
Close above the 1.4235 asian high, near the 50% fib of the 1.4262–1.4211 drop, breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
London open from 07:00 UTC is the next test of the session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 38 · price 1.42139
Lower highs and lower lows; late-Asia break below prior NY low.
Lower highs since the 1.4262 prior high in NY hours. The Asian bounce met rejection at the 1.4235 asian high, close to the 50% retrace of that drop, and late Asia slipped through the 1.4217 prior NY low to a fresh session low at 1.4211. RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR(14) about 3.3 pips, with price below both EMAs ahead of London open and NFP.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4217 prior NY low would negate the late-Asia break and reopen the 1.4235 asian high
Loss of the 1.4211 session low brings the 1.4200 round number into view; a break there exposes the 1.4155 wed low
A move through the lower highs trendline and 1.4262 prior high would invalidate the downtrend read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags crowded CAD shorts and squeeze risk on a soft print
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY session · RSI 27 · price 1.42119
Asian range broken to the downside, fresh window low.
Late in the Asia session, USDCAD slipped below the Asian range and Thursday's prior low at 1.4217. That extends the lower-high chain from the 1.4262 NY high through the 1.4235 Asia high to a window low at 1.4212, with RSI(14) near 27 and price edging toward the 1.4200 round number ahead of today's US payrolls.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.42173, 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4217 prior low negates the Asian range break
Reclaim of the 1.4235 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the NY high
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number exposes Wednesday's 1.4155 wed low
US September payrolls at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 30 · price 1.42137
Lower-high, lower-low chain; late-Asia break below NY low.
Late Asia session faded from the 1.4235 Asia high and slipped through the 1.4217 NY low to a fresh 24h low at 1.4214. The move extends a lower-high trendline from yesterday's 1.4262 prior high. RSI(14) sits near 30 on contracting ranges, with crowded CAD shorts heading into US payrolls.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4217, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 1.4217 NY low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.4200 round number exposes Wednesday's 1.4155 wed low
A close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.4235 Asia high invalidates the downtrend read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 32 · price 1.42145
LH/LL sequence; late Asia broke below the Asian range low.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 1.4262 NY high after ISM. Late Asia rolled over from the 1.4235 Asian high and broke the 1.4219 Asian low, printing a fresh 24h low at 1.4215 under the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 32, soft but not stretched, with ATR around 3.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4219, 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.4219 asian low keeps the lower-low sequence intact; a reclaim puts price back inside the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high breaks the descending trendline and invalidates the lower-high read; that level also sits near the 38.2% retrace of the ny high move
1.4200 round number, then the 1.4155 wed low, are the next structure below
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
LH/LL from 1.4262 prior high; Asia bounce capped at 38.2%, retesting NY low.
After the 1.4262 prior high on the post-ISM USD bid, price stepped lower through NY into a 1.4217 ny low. The Asian bounce was rejected at 1.4235, the asia high and the 38.2% fib of the NY decline, and late Asia is now retesting the lows with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42351, 1.42492, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4217 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.4200 psych
Recovery above the 1.4235 asia high breaks the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib cap
1.4249 lower high is the next structural cap if the trendline gives way
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.4235 under 1.4262, sitting on asian low.
The NY sell-off from the 1.4262 session high bottomed at the 1.4217 swing low into the close. The Asia bounce met rejection at 1.4235, below the descending trendline, and price is back on the 1.4219 Asian low. RSI(14) is near 43 and ATR is only ~3.6 pips, a compressed pre-London tape ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4217 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
M15 close above the 1.4235 Asian high breaks the descending trendline and negates the lower-high read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read, with the 1.4262 session high the upside reference
Lower high at 1.4235 under 1.4262, price back at Asian range floor.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4262 NY high to a 1.4217 NY low into rollover as CAD gave back gains on softer crude. The Asian bounce was rejected at 1.4235, the asian high, near the 38.2% retrace of that drop. Price has faded back to the 1.4219 asian low, below both EMAs, with ATR compressed to ~3.7 pips ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.4219, 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42351, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4217 NY low breaks the Asian range and exposes 1.4200 psych
Recovery above 1.4235 asian high tests the lower highs line toward the 1.4262 NY high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; London open will set the session range before it
02:31 UTC
Downtrend from NY high, Asian bounce faded · RSI 46 · price 1.42222
Lower highs since 1.4262, back at the Asian low.
The pair unwound Thursday's 1.4262 NY high through the NY afternoon and ground down to a 1.4217 day low by the close. The Asia session bounce stalled at 1.4235 for a rejection and has retraced about 80% of the rally, with price back at the 1.4219 Asian low and RSI(14) neutral near 46. Price is pinned near 1.4220 as the market waits on US payrolls.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4217 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4235 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the NY high
US September NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4262 NY high; Asian range 1.4219–1.4235 inside the late-NY drop.
Post-ISM spike to the 1.4262 NY high faded into a late-NY slide to 1.4217 near rollover, with firm USD and soft crude weighing on CAD. The Asia session rebound stalled at the 1.4235 Asian high, close to the 38.2% retrace of that drop. Price is easing back toward 1.4225, still above the 1.4219 Asian low, on a 3.8-pip ATR.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4247, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 asian high clears the 38.2% retrace and exposes the 1.4247 lower high
Break of the 1.4219 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; the 1.4262 ny high marks the top of the drop
02:02 UTC
Down from NY high, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 54 · price 1.42281
Lower highs from 1.4262; Asia higher low at 1.4219 vs 1.4217 NY low.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4262 session high through the NY afternoon and closed near the 1.4217 NY low. The Asia rebound, on softer crude and a firm USD, stalled at the 1.4235 asian high. That level sits on the 38.2% fib of the move and the descending trendline, and price is now easing back toward the asian low at 1.4219.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4252, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4235 asian high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 1.4252 ny lower hi, then the 1.4262 session high
Loss of 1.4219 asian low and the 1.4217 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 psych pivot
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a soft print revives the CAD short-covering risk flagged in the digest
01:46 UTC
Asia rebound after NY selloff, stalling · RSI 63 · price 1.4231
Higher lows in Asia, capped at 38.2% retrace of NY drop.
After the ISM-day push to the 1.4262 prior high, NY faded the pair to a 1.4217 swing low. Asia has since retraced on higher lows into the 1.4235 asia high, where the 38.2% fib of the NY drop capped the move. Price is sitting on the EMA50 near 1.4231 with RSI(14) around 63 and ATR at roughly 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.4225, 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4235, 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4235 asia high opens the 50% fib at 1.4240, with the 1.4262 prior high above
Failure to hold the 1.4225 asia pivot exposes the 1.4217 swing low and the 1.4200 round number
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Asia rebound inside a broader NY-session decline · RSI 67 · price 1.42342
HH/HL climb off 1.4217, Asian range high cleared.
Early Asia session has lifted off the 1.4217 NY low in a HH/HL sequence, clearing the 1.4227 Asian range high. Price is now pressing the 38.2% retrace of the 1.4262–1.4217 NY decline and the EMA50 near 1.4234, RSI(14) around 67. USD stays firm into NFP while CAD remains heavy on Fed-BoC divergence.
Support: 1.4227, 1.4217
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4245, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4227 asian high keeps the Asia HH/HL sequence intact; a slip back under it reopens the 1.4217 ny low
Rejection in the 1.4240–1.4245 zone (50% fib / 61.8% fib) would mark the bounce as a retrace within the NY decline; an M15 close above it opens the path to the 1.4262 ny high
Break of the Asia rising trendline would end the higher-low chain
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.4262 NY high; Asia range 1.4219–1.4231, price at its top.
Early Asia session is grinding up off the 1.4219 Asian low and pressing the Asian high at 1.4231, a former intraday support area. The move retraces about 27% of the NY slide from the 1.4262 NY high to the 1.4217 swing low, with USD holding near 18-month highs into NFP. Price sits above EMA20 and below EMA50, and RSI(14) is neutral near 50.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4231 Asian high opens the fib 50% at 1.4240
Rejection at 1.4231 keeps the Asian range intact and the lower-high sequence from the NY high in place
A break below the 1.4219 Asian low exposes the 1.4217 swing low and the 1.4200 round number
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend off NY high, early Asia rebound · RSI 63 · price 1.42289
Lower highs from 1.4262; Asian range 1.4219–1.4227 breached to the upside.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4262 NY high set after the ISM data to a 1.4217 day low late in NY, then held a tight 1.4219–1.4227 Asian range. Early Asia has lifted price to 1.4229, above the asian high and EMA20, and into the 1.4230 round number at the 23.6% retracement, with EMA50 overhead near 1.4234.
Support: 1.4227, 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4230 round number and EMA50 opens the 50% fib at 1.4240, then the ny high at 1.4262
A close back below the asian high at 1.4227 marks a false break and re-exposes the day low at 1.4217, then 1.4200 psych
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC can override this read; ATR near 3.6 pips reflects a thin Asia session until London open
00:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.42272
Lower highs from NY peak; tight Asian range above day low.
NY rejected the 1.4262 day high near the digest's 1.4250 five-month high, then sold through the london low at 1.4230 into a 1.4217 day low. The fade from the high fits the digest's CAD-short squeeze risk despite USD strength into NFP. Mid-Asia, price is basing between the 1.4219 asian low and 1.4228 and now presses the top of that range below the 38.2% retracement of the NY sell-off fib.
Support: 1.4219, 1.4217
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4230 london low reclaims broken support and brings the 38.2% NY sell-off fib near 1.4234 into play
Failure at the 1.4219 asian low exposes the 1.4217 day low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Only a recovery through the 1.4262 day high negates the NY rejection
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC, after this window, could reset the intraday range
00:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening in Asia · RSI 51 · price 1.42255
Lower highs from 1.4262; 1.4231 floor broken, tight Asian base above 1.4217.
The post-ISM pop to the 1.4262 day high faded through late NY. Price broke the 1.4231 prior floor that held in London and NY and printed a 1.4217 prior low into the close, despite a dollar still firm on ISM prices paid. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.4219–1.4227 band capped by the asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.4231, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4231 reclaims the prior floor and the 38.2% fib (~1.4234), neutralising the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4217 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
A push back toward the 1.4262 day high requires the 1.4227 asian high to give way first
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 1.4262 prior high; tight early-Asia range above the session low.
USDCAD faded the NY spike to the 1.4262 prior high in a steady sequence of lower highs along a falling trendline, slipping back under the 1.4231 London low and printing a 1.4217 session low into the NY close despite firm US data. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.4219–1.4227 range just above that low, with the asia high and the 38.2% fib of the NY drop near 1.4234 overhead. RSI(14) at 37 and ATR near 3.6 pips point to thin, low-volatility trade.
Support: 1.42173, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42266, 1.42311, 1.4262
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4217 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery above the 1.4227 asia high and the 1.4231 london low breaks the falling trendline and negates the downtrend read
Rejection at the 38.2–50% fib of the NY drop (1.4234–1.4240) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US NFP, unemployment and AHE at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; a soft print revives the 1.4200 squeeze scenario