Tight 1.4247–1.4261 band since Friday NY; small weekend gap lower being filled in early Asia.
USD/CAD spiked to the 1.4201 NFP low on the payrolls miss, then reversed and ran to the 1.4261 Friday high in NY hours as CAD weakness outweighed the soft US data. The early Asia session gapped about 7 pips lower to a 1.4246 Sunday low and is drifting back toward the 1.4256 Friday close in thin trade. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is compressed at about 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.42462, 1.42382, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42558, 1.4261
What it said to watch
Gap fill at the 1.4256 Friday close is the first test. An M15 close above the 1.4261 Friday high, near the 1.4262 multi-month high, breaks the consolidation upward.
Failure to hold the 1.4246 Sunday low opens a pullback toward the 1.4238 fib 38.2 of the post-NFP leg.
Only a return to the 1.4201 NFP low would fully undo the Friday reversal.
US ISM Services PMI on Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read.
Tight Asian range below Friday close, gap unfilled.
Early Asia session opened about 7 pips below Friday's 1.4256 close. Price has since held a 1.4246–1.4253 Asian range on a flat EMA20. Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to the 1.4201 nfp low, but demand reversed it to a 1.4261 prior high, and price is holding a shallow retrace of that rally.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4253 asian high puts the 1.4256 gap fill in play
A close above the 1.4261 prior high marks a fresh push into the 1.4262 multi-month area
Failure to hold the 1.4246 asian low exposes the 1.4224 post-nfp low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could reshape this read
Crude moves are the main CAD-side driver
23:16 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend paused, flat into Sunday open · RSI 48 · price 1.42519
Tight range under Friday high after weekend gap lower.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USD/CAD to 1.4201, but the low was fully reclaimed. Price based in a 1.4223–1.4237 nfp range, then ran during NY hours to the 1.4261 friday high, just under the 1.4262 multi-month high, as CAD stayed heavy on soft crude. Sunday's open gapped lower to the 1.4246 sunday low, and price is now flat around 1.4250–1.4253 in thin early Asia with the 1.4256 gap fill untested.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4256 gap fill puts the 1.4261 friday high and the 1.4262 multi-month high back in play
Loss of the 1.4246 sunday low exposes the NFP swing fib 38.2% near 1.4238, then the 1.4223 nfp range top-to-base
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Crude direction remains the key CAD-specific lever on Asian and London trade
Tight Asia session range after a weekend gap lower.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USDCAD to the nfp low at 1.4201, but the drop fully reversed. Price built an nfp base near 1.4224 and rallied through NY hours to the friday high at 1.4261, despite the softer USD tone in the digest. The Asia session opened with a gap lower and is holding a 7-pip session range between the 1.4246 swing low and the 1.4253 session high, just under the EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4253, 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4253 session high opens a gap fill to Friday's 1.4256 close
Break of the 1.4261 friday high puts the 1.4262 multi-month high in play
Failure to hold the 1.4246 swing low exposes the nfp base around 1.4224, near the 61.8% fib
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Tight Asia range just under Friday close after a small weekend gap lower.
The NFP miss spiked USD/CAD to the 1.4201 nfp low, but the dip was fully reversed as CAD stayed heavy on soft crude. The pair ran to a 1.4261 fri high, just shy of the 1.4262 multi-month high. Sunday opened about 7 pips below the 1.4256 fri close, and the early Asia session is holding a tight 1.4246–1.4253 range above the 23.6% retracement of the post-NFP rally.
Support: 1.42462, 1.42382, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42558, 1.4261
What it said to watch
Gap fill through the 1.4256 fri close puts the 1.4261 fri high / 1.4262 multi-month high back in play
M15 close below the 1.4246 asia low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4238 and the 1.4224 post-NFP base
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Crude oil direction remains the CAD-specific driver behind the post-NFP strength
Tight range under Friday high after weekend gap down.
Early Asia session on the week open, after a 7-pip gap down from Friday's 1.4256 close. Price is holding just above the 1.4246 open low, near the 23.6% fib of Friday's NFP leg. That leg swept the Asian lows to the 1.4201 nfp low, then reversed in NY hours to the 1.4261 friday high on soft-oil CAD weakness, despite the USD miss.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4233, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4256 fills the gap and puts the 1.4261 friday high (near the 1.4262 multi-month high) back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4246 open low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.4238 and the 1.4233 breakout bar from NY
Loss of 1.4233 shifts the read toward the 1.4201 nfp low
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, stalling below the high · RSI 41 · price 1.4251
Tight range under 1.4261 after Sunday gap lower.
The NFP spike to the 1.4201 nfp low was rejected, and the pair squeezed to a 1.4261 friday high in NY despite the soft US print. CAD weakness outweighed the payrolls miss before price compressed between 1.4250 and 1.4260 into the close. Sunday's open gapped about 7 pips lower to the 1.4246 sunday low, near the 23.6% NFP fib, and early Asia session trade is drifting below the 1.4256 fri close.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A move back above the 1.4256 fri close fills the gap and puts the 1.4261 friday high and the 1.4262 multi-month top in play
Failure to hold the 1.4246 sunday low (23.6% fib) exposes the 1.4231 50% retrace and the 1.4224 nfp base
Acceptance above 1.4262 opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the 1.4201 nfp low would reverse the post-payrolls squeeze
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL leg off 1.4201 into a 1.4247–1.4261 shelf; small Sunday gap down.
USD/CAD spiked to the 1.4201 nfp low on the payrolls miss, then reversed to a 1.4261 fri high during NY hours as CAD stayed heavy on softer crude. It compressed in a 1.4247–1.4261 band into the close. The thin Asia session open gapped down to a 1.4246 gap low that holds the 23.6% level of the post-NFP leg, with the 1.4256 fri close still unfilled.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4238, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4256 fri close fills the gap; acceptance above the 1.4261 fri high (near the 1.4262 multi-month high) extends the post-NFP leg
Failure to hold the 1.4246 gap low exposes the 38.2% fib of the post-NFP leg at 1.4238
US ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a miss revives the NFP unwind toward the nfp low
Thin early Asia session liquidity can exaggerate moves around the gap levels
21:46 UTC
Post-NFP upleg stalled, drifting in a tight range · RSI 40 · price 1.42499
Friday spike low and reversal, NY consolidation 1.4250–1.4261, small Sunday gap down.
The NFP miss spiked USD/CAD to 1.4201, but buyers reclaimed it fast, and soft-crude CAD weakness carried the pair to a Friday high of 1.4261 before NY ranged below it. The thin Asia session opened about 7 pips below the 1.4256 Friday close. The sunday low at 1.4246 sits on the 23.6% fib of the post-NFP leg, and RSI(14) at 40 shows a fading upleg rather than a stretched one.
Support: 1.42462, 1.42382, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.42558, 1.4261
What it said to watch
A move back through the 1.4256 fri close fills the gap and puts the 1.4261 fri high, near the 1.4262 multi-month high, back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.4246 sunday low exposes the 38.2 fib at 1.4238; below that sits the 1.4224 nfp hl
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Crude direction remains the CAD-specific lever on intraday swings
21:31 UTC
Friday rally stalled; gapped lower at weekly open · RSI 39 · price 1.42488
Friday NY range 1.4250–1.4261, weekly open gap below range floor.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USD/CAD to the nfp low at 1.4201, but the pair reversed, broke out from the 1.4234 breakout base during NY hours and held 1.4250–1.4261 into the close despite broad USD weakness. The thin weekly open gapped about 7 pips below the friday close to a sunday low of 1.4246. Price sits under EMA20 and just above EMA50, with RSI near 39.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4234, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
A fill back to the friday close at 1.4256 would restore the Friday range read
Failure to hold the sunday low at 1.4246 exposes the breakout base near 1.4234 and the 38.2% fib
An M15 close above the friday high at 1.4261 would clear the 1.4262 multi-month high
ISM Services PMI on Mon at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, stalling below the high · RSI 40 · price 1.42471
Friday range 1.4250–1.4261 left behind by a small weekend gap down.
USD/CAD rallied from the NFP-miss low at 1.4201 to a 1.4261 Friday high, close to the 1.4262 multi-month high, as CAD weakness outweighed the softer USD. Price then flattened into a tight NY range. The weekly open gapped about 7 pips lower and now sits on the pre-NFP high near 1.4245 in thin early Asia session trade, with RSI(14) at about 40.
Support: 1.4245, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261
What it said to watch
A fill of the gap back to the 1.4256 Friday close would restore the Friday range read
An M15 close below the 1.4245 pre-NFP high exposes the 1.4224 post-NFP low and the 38.2% level of the NFP-leg fib near 1.4238
An M15 close above the 1.4261 Friday high would clear the multi-month high area
Crude oil moves at the weekly open could shift CAD before Monday's US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC
Post-NFP breakout above 1.4246, holding a tight 1.4247–1.4261 range into the Friday close.
The NFP miss spiked USDCAD to the 1.4201 nfp low, under the London low, before a full reversal. Soft crude kept CAD weak despite broad USD selling, and the NY rally cleared the 1.4246 pre-NFP high to a 1.4261 session high, just shy of the 1.4262 multi-month high. Late NY dipped to 1.4247 in a retest of the breakout zone, and the final bar closed back at 1.4256 with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.42456, 1.4224, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 session high clears the 1.4262 multi-month high, with the 1.4300 round number next
Failure to hold the 1.4246 breakout zone exposes the 1.4238 38.2% fib of the nfp low to session high move, then the 1.4224 swing low
A break back under the 1.4201 nfp low voids the post-NFP reversal
Monday ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; weekend gap risk at the reopen