21:05 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 77 · price 1.42558
V-shaped rebound from an Aug–Sep double bottom, now testing the June–July range high.
USDCAD has rallied about 530 pips off the 1.3732/1.3759 double bottom (Aug 21 / Sep 8). The 1.3939 neckline broke on Sep 16, and the pair has not printed a lower daily low against the rally trendline since. Price is now pressing the 1.4248–1.4262 band, the June high and the Oct 1 range high, with RSI(14) near 76, the most overbought reading in the window, as wide US-Canada yield spreads and soft crude weigh on CAD. Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) only produced a dip to 1.4201 before a close near the highs, showing demand still absorbing USD-negative news.
Support: 1.4155, 1.4005, 1.3939
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.4262 range high clears the June–July cap; the 1.4300 round number is the next reference
- Rejection at 1.4262 with RSI rolling over from overbought would leave a double top against the June high
- Close below the rally trendline and the 1.4155 swing low signals the extended leg unwinding toward the 1.4005 july low, near the 38.2% of the Aug–Oct rally fib
- Loss of the 1.3939 neckline (61.8% retracement) would void the double bottom read
- ISM Services Mon (f/c 55.7) and Canada Sept LFS on Oct 9 could materially shift this read