21:05 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stretched · RSI 78 · price 1.4264
HH/HL chain from the Sep 8 higher low; price just above the June high.
USDCAD has climbed about 550 pips in four weeks from the Aug low at 1.3732. The Sep 8 higher low completed a base, and weak oil plus BoC-Fed divergence carried the pair through the 1.4000 psych level and the June high at 1.4248. Friday's soft US payrolls capped the rally at a 1.4293 cycle high. The last two sessions have pulled back toward the June high, where the Sept trendline also sits, with RSI near 78 in overbought territory and price well above a rising EMA(50).
Support: 1.4248, 1.4000, 1.3732
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4350
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 1.4248 june high and Sept trendline turns the breakout into a false break
- Loss of the 1.4000 psych level, near the 50% aug-oct fib, breaks the HH/HL chain
- Close above the 1.4293 cycle high opens the 1.4350 round number
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side
- Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, given the overbought backdrop