USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 52 · price 1.42128
Lower highs and lows from the London-open high; tight base 1.4205–1.4215 since the NY close.
USDCAD fell about 80 pips from the 1.4285 London-open high to a 1.4205 session low as the USD eased off its 18-month highs, breaking through the 1.4221 support area. Since the NY close it has held a tight 1.4205–1.4215 base in thin early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) near 52 and price now testing the range top at 1.4215.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 range top opens the 1.4224 swing high, the 23.6% fib of the 1.4285–1.4205 drop
Break below the 1.4205 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 psych level
FOMC Minutes, Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.42107
Lower highs from the 1.4285 London high; tight Asia consolidation above the 1.4205 session low.
USDCAD shed ~80 pips from the 1.4285 London high as the USD faded with cooling yields and oil. Price slipped through 1.4221 into a 1.4205 session low, carving lower highs along a descending trendline. Asia is drifting in a 1.4205–1.4212 band with RSI(14) near 50 and price pressing that trendline from below, with no fresh structure in play.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4205 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4215 ny high clears the descending trendline; reclaiming the 1.4224 bounce high (near the 23.6% fib) neutralises the downtrend read
1.4250 lower high caps the 38.2% fib zone of the London-NY selloff
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD driver; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 51 · price 1.42116
Lower highs from 1.4285, tight 1.4205–1.4224 range since mid-NY.
A London-afternoon slide extended through NY as the USD faded, taking price through the 1.4221 area flagged as support and down to a 1.4206 swing low. Since then price has been held below a 1.4224 range top, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the 1.4285–1.4206 drop. Early Asia session is drifting mid-range on thin ranges, with ATR(14) compressed near 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4224 range top, at the 23.6% fib, would reclaim the old 1.4221 support and soften the downtrend read
1.4215 prior high is the first cap above the current Asian range
Failure at the 1.4206 swing low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Descending lower-highs trendline from 1.4250 still caps structure; a break above the 1.4250 lower high would void it
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD pricing and this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, now a tight base above the session low.
USDCAD made a false break above the Asian range to 1.4285 at London open, then sold off about 80 pips through London and NY as the USD eased with yields, despite weaker oil and the Ivey PMI miss. Each lower high held, at 1.4250 and at 1.4224, the broken support. Early Asia is now drifting in a 10-pip box between the 1.4205 session low and the 1.4215 late NY high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 late NY high, then above the 1.4224 broken support and 23.6% fib, interrupts the lower-high chain
Failure at the 1.4205 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
Only a reclaim of the 1.4250 lower high would neutralise the post-London downtrend read
FOMC Minutes, Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read once in range
Lower highs from the London high at 1.4285; 10-pip box 1.4205–1.4215 since late NY.
London's early push to 1.4285 failed. The selloff then cut through the Asian range low and extended through NY after Canada's trade surplus beat, slipping below the 1.4221 support named in the CAD digest to a 1.4205 rollover low. Price has since compressed under the 1.4215 range top in thin early-Asia trade, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) down to roughly 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 range top opens a retest of the 1.4224 swing high, near the 23.6% fib of the London-NY selloff
Failure to hold the 1.4205 rollover low exposes the 1.4200 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open high, compressing above the 1.4205 session low.
USDCAD has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4285 London-open high. The slide accelerated after the 12:30 UTC Canadian trade beat and a softer USD, taking price through the 1.4221 support. Thin early-Asia trade is now holding just above the 1.4205 session low, capped by the descending lower-high line and the 1.4215 swing high, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4224, the prior supp level aligned with the 23.6% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.4205 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the descending lower-high line from the 1.4250 lower high would signal the downtrend stalling
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows from the 1.4285 London open high, now a tight post-rollover consolidation.
The London open high at 1.4285 faded into an 80-pip slide through NY hours on a softer USD, with DXY back under 102.00 on lower yields. The slide broke 1.4221 and printed lower highs at 1.4250 (ny high) and 1.4224 (lower high). Early Asia is pinned between the 1.4205 session low and the 1.4215 range top, with RSI(14) flat near 46 and ATR compressed to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens a test of the 1.4224 lower high / 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.4205 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4250 ny high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London-open peak; flat base above 1.4205.
USDCAD has sold off about 80 pips from the 1.4285 high set at the London open to a 1.4205 rollover low. That puts price back below the 1.4221 support area as DXY slipped under 102.00, with the Ivey PMI miss not reversing the move. The late ny high at 1.4215 has capped a flat 10-pip base, and the thin early Asia session is holding just above the rollover low, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 late ny high and the descending lower highs line breaks the day's decline structure
Reclaim of the 1.4224 swing high puts price back above the 1.4221 area cited as support
Failure to hold the 1.4205 rollover low exposes the 1.4200 round number
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs along descending trendline since London open, price pinned at session low.
London open pushed above the Asian range to 1.4285 and was rejected. Price then broke the Asian low at 1.4250 from 11:00 UTC as the dollar faded on easing yields and oil, and the soft Ivey PMI did not slow the slide. Lower highs have held along the descending trendline, with the 1.4224 broken supp and the late ny high at 1.4215 capping, and price now sits on the 1.4205 session low in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.42241
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the descending trendline (~1.4210) and the 1.4215 late ny high would break the lower-high chain
A reclaim of 1.4224 broken supp (the 1.4221 area flagged in CAD commentary) would put the 38.2% retrace of the day decline (~1.4235) in play
Failure to hold the 1.4205 session low and 1.4200 round number would extend the lower-low sequence
FOMC Minutes, Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open high; price at the 24h low.
USD/CAD broke the London range below 1.4266 and bled from the 1.4285 London-open high in a lower-high chain through NY, with a soft dollar and falling yields taking it under the 1.4221 support flagged in the digest. After the NY close, price gapped down to the 24h low at 1.4205, just under the 1.4206 ny low, and RSI(14) is ~39 in thin early-Asia trade. The descending trendline caps the late-NY lower high at 1.4215, and 38.2% of the selloff fib sits near 1.4235, under the 1.4224 swing high.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42062, 1.42153, 1.42241
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the 24h low
Reclaim of the 1.4206 ny low as support would mark the post-close drop as a false break
Rollover and early-Asia liquidity is thin; moves before London open may not hold
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalyst; no events in the next 8h
Lower highs from the London high; late NY range 1.4206–1.4215, fresh low at rollover.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since the 1.4285 London high, and NY hours broke the 1.4221 area (now broken supp near 1.4224) as the dollar faded on easing yields. The NY bounce hi at 1.4250 capped the recovery, and late NY compressed between 1.4206 and a 1.4215 range top. Thin rollover trade set a fresh session low near 1.4205, just above the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low chain from the session low
Close above the 1.4215 range top and the falling trendline weakens the downtrend read
Reclaim of 1.4224 broken supp, then the 1.4250 ny bounce hi, would shift the read to a broader range
Thin Asia session liquidity after rollover; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major USD risk
Lower highs from 1.4285; late-NY compression 1.4206–1.4215.
USD/CAD bled ~79 pips from the 1.4285 London-open high. Broad USD softness outweighed a weak Ivey PMI, and the pair sliced through the 1.4224 broken supp area during NY hours. Price is now compressing beneath a line of lower highs, with the late ny high at 1.4215 capping it and the 1.4206 session low holding into the Asia session open.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.4224, 1.42363
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 broken supp area breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.4206 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 1.4200 round number next
A reclaim of the late ny high at 1.4215 puts the fib 38.2% of the day's decline at 1.4236 in view
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next major USD risk
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY selloff · RSI 46 · price 1.42153
Lower highs and lows from the London open high, flat base forming above the session low.
The London open high at 1.4285 rejected, and NY hours unwound the move as softer yields weighed on USD. Price broke the 1.4221 support level flagged in the digest and printed a session low at 1.4206. Late NY is basing between 1.4206 and the 1.4215 base high, with price pressing EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high, at the 23.6% fib of the London-NY drop, would mark the first higher high since London
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Rejection below the 1.4250 lower high keeps the downtrend structure intact
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD yields
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 36 · price 1.42094
Lower highs from London-open high, basing 1.4206–1.4215.
USDCAD peaked at 1.4285 at London open, then printed lower highs all day. It dropped below the Asian range and the 1.4221 support flagged in the digest during NY hours as the dollar faded with cooler yields and oil. Late NY is compressing between the 1.4206 session low and the 1.4215 late ny high, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42147, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4224 bounce high reclaims 1.4221 and breaks the downtrend line, opening the 38.2% london-ny fib near 1.4236 and the 1.4250 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Asian session typically narrows the range; crude oil moves remain the main CAD driver until Wednesday's FOMC Minutes (18:00 UTC)
Lower highs from the London-open peak; tight late-NY base at 1.4206–1.4215.
USD/CAD has dropped about 79 pips from the 1.4285 London-open high, losing the 1.4221 support named in desk commentary as cooling oil and yields pushed the dollar back under DXY 102. After London close, price is coiling between the 1.4206 session low and the 1.4215 minor high, pressing the descending trendline from the 1.4250 swing high, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.4215 minor high would mark the first higher high since the London-open peak.
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number.
Reclaiming the 1.4224 swing high (23.6% of the London high–NY low fib) would challenge the lower-high structure. The 1.4250 swing high sits just under the 50% level.
The thin Asia session follows; FOMC Minutes on Wed at 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalyst.
Lower highs and lower lows since London, now compressing late NY.
USD/CAD faded the 1.4285 London high, broke below the Asian range and printed a lower-high/lower-low chain through NY, with the 1.4221 support giving way as the USD stayed soft. Late NY is compressing under a falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 35 and the 1.4215 bounce high capping above the 1.4206 session low.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42147, 1.4224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 bounce high and the falling trendline would interrupt the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.4224 lower high negates the NY downtrend read
Break of the 1.4206 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could shift this read
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling late NY · RSI 36 · price 1.42113
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open high, now coiling just above the session low.
The London open spike to 1.4285 reversed into a lower-high, lower-low chain. The slide extended through the 14:00 UTC data despite the Ivey PMI miss, broke 1.4221 on broad USD softness as yields and oil eased, and printed a session low at 1.4206. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4206–1.4215 band below falling trendline resistance, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.4206, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high and the falling trendline resistance would break the lower-high chain.
A retracement into the 38.2–50% fib band of the session high-to-low move (1.4236–1.4246) would test the area below the 1.4250 ny high.
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number.
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk; thin Asia session liquidity until then.
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 33 · price 1.42096
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, 1.4221 broken.
London lifted USDCAD above the Asian range to a 1.4285 London high, which was rejected. NY then built a lower-high chain from 1.4250 through the 1.4224 swing high and broke 1.4221 as the dollar slid below DXY 102.00. Late NY is compressing just above the 1.4206 session low, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4206 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
A move back above the 1.4250 lower high would invalidate the NY downtrend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk; no events due in the next 8h
19:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower late NY · RSI 26 · price 1.42065
Lower highs and lower lows since the London-open high.
A false break above the Asian range topped at 1.4285 into London open. NY then lost the Asian low and the 1.4221 area on broad USD weakness as DXY slipped below 102.00, and the 16:00 UTC retest high at 1.4224 capped the bounce. After London close, price is drifting under a descending trendline to a fresh session low at 1.4206. RSI(14) is near 26, stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.42062, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42123, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4212 lower high and the descending trendline would signal the late-NY drift is stalling
Reclaiming the 1.4224 retest high (former 1.4221 support) breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4200 round number below the session low extends the downtrend, with no structure below it in this window
A move back above the 1.4250 swing high, the last NY pivot, negates the downtrend read
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 37 · price 1.42073
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open high; fresh session low at 1.4207.
USD/CAD has held a lower-high, lower-low decline from the 1.4285 London open high, breaking the 1.4221 area during NY hours to a fresh session low at 1.4207 as the USD stayed soft after Friday's NFP miss. A bounce to 1.4250 around the Ivey PMI miss faded, and late-NY bars are compressing under a minor descending trendline with RSI(14) near 37, not oversold.
Support: 1.42067, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.42299, 1.42504
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
A reclaim of the 1.4230 prior low puts the 1.4250 bounce high, near the 50% retrace of the decline, back in focus
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk for this read
The early-London high at 1.4285 faded into a lower-high sequence. The Asian range low broke late London, and the 12:30 UTC CAD trade surplus beat extended the drop through 1.4230, alongside a softer USD as yields eased. Selling has slowed into late NY, holding a tight band between the 1.4208 session low and the 1.4224 swing high, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.42075, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Recovery to the 1.4250 lower high, near the 50% fib of the session drop, would challenge the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.4208 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 11:00 UTC; Asian range broken below.
The slide from the London-open high at 1.4285 has kept a lower-high chain intact through NY hours, taking out the Asian range and the 1.4221 support despite the Ivey PMI miss as USD eased below DXY 102.00. Late NY is grinding near the session low at 1.4207, RSI(14) around 33 and not yet oversold. The descending trendline and the lower high at 1.4224 are capping rebounds.
Support: 1.42075, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.4200 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the session low
Reclaim of the 1.4250 swing high would neutralise the NY selloff structure
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL sequence since London high, pressing session low.
The drop from the 1.4285 London high broke the Asian range low near 1.4248 at 11:15 UTC and extended through the 1.4221 CAD support during NY hours, with lower highs at 1.4250 and 1.4224 capping each bounce as DXY and yields eased. Price sits at the session low near 1.4208, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 1.4200 round number extends the London-NY drop into fresh session lows
Late-NY and Asia session liquidity is thin; a bounce back toward the 1.4250 lower high would retrace roughly 50% of the London-NY drop
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through NY after a failed London push; Asian range broken lower.
London's push to 1.4285 reversed, and NY broke the Asian low at 1.4244. Price then extended a lower-highs chain to a session low at 1.4210 as the USD eased with DXY back under 102.00. Late NY trade sits at the lows with RSI(14) near 29, and the descending trendline from the 11:15 UTC high caps bounces.
Support: 1.42095, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42241, 1.42299, 1.42439
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4224 swing high, then the 1.4230 prior low, would signal the selloff stalling
Failure to hold the 1.4210 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.4244 Asian low would negate the range break
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, now pressing session lows late in NY.
USD/CAD has stair-stepped lower from the 1.4285 London high, breaking under the Asian range and through 1.4221 support. Lower highs at the 1.4250 NY high and the 1.4224 lower high now cap price as the USD corrects with oil and yields easing. A fresh session low at 1.4211 printed with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250, 1.4285
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4224 lower high, and the 1.4221 pivot, breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.4211 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 38.2% fib at ~1.4240 and the falling trendline would point to a deeper retrace toward the 1.4250 NY high
A rebound in US 10y yields or Brent could challenge the USD-correction read
London high at 1.4285 marks the top of the session decline
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; tight base above the session low.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4285 London high and broke below the Asian range. The slide extended through NY hours as the dollar corrected off its highs, printing a 1.4213 session low. After London close, price has compressed in a 1.4213–1.4224 base, sitting on the digest's 1.4221 support, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4213 session low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 1.4200 round number next
Reclaim of the 1.4224 range top opens a retrace toward the 1.4250 lower high, near the 50% of the London high-low fib
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~25h) are the next scheduled USD risk that could shift this read
Lower highs since London; tight base above 1.4213.
The early-London push to 1.4285 was the high; selling from late London into NY broke the 1.4244 Asian low and printed a 1.4213 session low as the USD corrected with softer oil and yields. Since then price has held a 1.4213–1.4224 consolidation, sitting just under the 1.4221 support flagged in the digest, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.42134, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.42299, 1.42439
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 range top and the descending trendline from the late-London lower highs reopens the 1.4230 broken low and the 38.2% of the London-NY drop near 1.4241
Failure to hold the 1.4213 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.4244 Asian low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Brent and US 10y direction into the NY close remain the near-term driver ahead of FOMC minutes in ~25h
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open high, now compressing in a tight band.
After the London open spike to 1.4285, USDCAD broke below the Asian range and printed a lower-high/lower-low chain through NY to a 1.4213 session low. The move tracked the broader USD pullback as oil and yields eased, and a weak Ivey PMI did not lift the pair. Price is now pinned in a 1.4213–1.4224 range top band under the descending trendline in late NY, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4250, 1.4270
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 range top and the descending trendline breaks the compression; 1.4250 swing high is the last lower high
Close above 1.4250 retraces toward the 38.2–50% fib zone and opens the 1.4270 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4213 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD test
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; trading below the Asian range.
London's push above the Asian range to 1.4285 failed. A chain of lower highs then carried USD/CAD through the 1.4244 Asian low and down to a 1.4213 session low in NY as DXY slipped below 102.00. Price is stalling under the 1.4224 bounce high, around the 1.4221 support flagged in the CAD digest, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.42134, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42241, 1.42439, 1.42504
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4250 lower high, which is also the 50% fib of the drop, breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sell-off structure
A loss of the 1.4213 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
A reclaim of the 1.4244 Asian low would put price back inside the overnight range
Repeated stalls at the 1.4224 bounce high would confirm the pause is only a flag inside the downtrend
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 39 · price 1.42227
Lower highs and lower lows since London open.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4285 London-open high. The slide extended through NY hours as USD eased on softer Fed pricing, outweighing the Ivey miss. Price is bouncing modestly off the 1.4213 session low and sits just under the 1.4230 broken low, with the lower-highs trendline capping the 16:00 UTC high.
Support: 1.42134, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4230 broken low and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Close above the 1.4250 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Break of the 1.4213 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Fib 38.2% of the session high-to-low move near 1.4241 caps the current bounce so far
WTI moves remain the main CAD driver into the session close
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, pressing day lows · RSI 32 · price 1.42196
Lower highs and lower lows since the London session high; Asian range broken to the downside.
Rejection at the 1.4285 London session high started a lower-high, lower-low chain that broke the Asian range and printed a 1.4213 day low in late NY as DXY slipped below 102.00. The 14:00 UTC Ivey PMI miss gave the pair no lift. RSI(14) sits near 32 and price is holding just above the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4213, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4213 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.4230 broken low and the lower-highs trendline (~1.4236) would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 1.4250 lower high, near the 50% fib of the London high–day low drop, neutralises the sequence
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major USD risk
15:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extended into NY · RSI 27 · price 1.42148
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high; Asian range broken lower.
USDCAD slid from the 1.4285 London high, broke the Asian low at 1.4244 into the NY session and has printed lower highs and lower lows down to a 1.4213 session low as the dollar faded on easing yields. RSI(14) at 27 is stretched but not extreme. The 13:00 UTC prior low at 1.4230 is now capping rebounds.
Support: 1.42134, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42299, 1.42439, 1.42504
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4213 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number, the next support handle in the CAD digest
M15 close back above the 1.4230 prior low and the lower highs trendline would ease the downtrend read
Recovery through the 1.4244 Asian low and the 1.4250 lower high would invalidate the intraday sequence
No scheduled USD or CAD data in the next 8h; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 32 · price 1.42189
London range broken lower, LH/LL chain into NY session low.
After the london high at 1.4285, a late-London break of the 1.4266–1.4285 range took the pair through the Asian lows. NY extended to a fresh session low at 1.4217 as DXY slipped back below 102.00 on easing yields. The 1.4250 lower high capped the only bounce, and RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold, with the 1.4200 round number just below.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4250, 1.4285
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4250 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the fib 50% read
Reclaim of the 1.4230 prior low would signal the NY leg is stalling
Acceptance below the 1.4200 round number extends the downtrend through the support zone cited at 1.4221/1.4200
London close in the next hour can thin follow-through below the session low
US yield recovery is the main near-term risk to the USD-softness read ahead of FOMC minutes in ~26h
Range break lower, LH/LL chain from 07:00 UTC high.
USDCAD broke out of the 1.4265–1.4280 London range at 11:00 UTC, cutting through the asian low at 1.4255 and yesterday's 1.4240 broken lows as USD softened and CAD's trade beat outweighed the Ivey miss. The 13:45 bounce stalled at a 1.4250 lower high, and the 14:45 leg during Bowman's speech printed a 1.42246 session low. RSI(14) at 34 sits soft but is not oversold.
Support: 1.42246, 1.4221, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.42504, 1.42555
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4240 broken lows would turn the breakdown into a false break
Close above the 1.4250 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 38.2% fib sits near 1.4248
Failure to hold the 1.42246 session low exposes the 1.4221 support zone, then the 1.4200 round number
Bowman and other Fed commentary into FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg
Lower highs and lower lows since late London, trading below the Asian range.
The sell-off from the 1.4277 late-London high cut through the 1.4256 Asian low and printed a 1.4225 session low early in the NY session. The USD dip on easing yields and Canada's trade-surplus beat weighed, and the lower high at 1.4250 plus the broken low at 1.4230 frame the move. RSI(14) sits near 33, soft but not oversold, with the 1.4221 support just below.
Support: 1.42246, 1.4221, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.42504, 1.42555
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4230 broken low would signal the latest leg is failing
Recovery through the 1.4250 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the asian low at 1.4256 back in play
Loss of 1.4221 support exposes the 1.4200 round number
Bowman's 14:45 UTC remarks are still being digested and could jolt the USD leg intraday
Break below Asian range, lower high at 1.4250 capped, price back near the lows.
London pushed above the Asian range to a 1.4285 session high, then reversed from 11:00 UTC through the 1.4256 asian low to a 1.4230 session low. The slide extended after the 12:30 UTC Canadian trade surplus beat. The rebound stalled at the 1.4250 lower high, on the 38.2% fib and the descending trendline, and price is drifting back toward the lows with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.42299, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42504, 1.42555, 1.42849
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery above the 1.4250 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib, neutralising the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 1.4256 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Bowman speech at 14:45 UTC could jolt the USD leg during NY hours
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 36 · price 1.42393
London range broken lower, lower-high/lower-low chain into NY.
USDCAD broke below the 1.4266–1.4277 London range late in the London session and fell to a 1.4230 session low in the first hour of NY as USD eased on lower yields. The bounce was rejected at 1.4250, a lower high near 38.2% of the London-NY drop. Price now sits just above yesterday's 1.4237 prior low, below the 1.4256 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.42372, 1.42299
Resistance: 1.42504, 1.42555, 1.42774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4230 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4221/1.4200 support area
M15 close above the 1.4250 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 1.4256 Asian low would put price back toward the 1.4277 london lh
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC; a renewed yield move could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 1.4285 London high, NY lower low at 1.4230, bounce stalling at 38.2%.
London set the 1.4285 high before a slide from late London into NY broke the Asian range, helped by easing US yields and the CAD trade-surplus beat. Price swept the 1.4237 prior low to the 1.4230 session low; the bounce high at 1.4250 sits on the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 37 as Ivey PMI lands.
Support: 1.42372, 1.42299
Resistance: 1.42504, 1.42574, 1.42699
What it said to watch
Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4250 bounce high / 38.2% fib opens the 50% fib at 1.4257, with the Asian high at 1.4270 above
Failure to hold the 1.4237 prior low exposes the 1.4230 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs since London high, sweep of prior low then bounce.
USDCAD reversed from the 1.4285 session high at the London open. Selling extended after the CAD trade-surplus beat, briefly breaking below the 1.4237 prior low to a 1.4230 session low before a sharp bounce into the NY open. Price now sits just under the 1.4254 lower high, near the 38.2% retrace of the London decline.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4230
Resistance: 1.4254, 1.4285
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4237 prior low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low leg toward the 1.4230 session low
Close above the 1.4254 lower high opens the 50% retrace near 1.4257 and the 1.4265 breakdown area
Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce off lows · RSI 31 · price 1.4237
Lower highs since 10:45 UTC; Asian range broken lower.
London faded from its 1.4285 london high and broke the 1.4256 asian low from 11:00 UTC. The slide extended after the C$4.19B trade surplus beat to a 1.4230 session low, below Monday's 1.4237 low, with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 31 as price bounces into the 1.4240 broken shelf.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4240, 1.4256, 1.4285
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4240 broken shelf and the lower highs trendline undercuts the breakdown read
A retrace into the 1.4256 asian low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.4285–1.4230 drop
Failure to hold the 1.4230 session low exposes the 1.4221 support flagged in the digest and the 1.4200 round number
Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift this read within the hour
After a 1.4285 session high at London open, USDCAD broke below the 1.4266 range low late in London and extended lower after the C$4.19B trade surplus beat. Early NY trades at 1.4241, pressing yesterday's 1.4237 prior low, with lower highs at 1.4277 and 1.4254 and RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.42372, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42541, 1.42657, 1.42849
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery above the 1.4254 lower high, also the 38.2% of the selloff fib, breaks the lower-highs line
Reclaim of the 1.4266 range low puts price back inside the London range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from session high; base forming at 1.4243 double low.
London set the session high at 1.4285 early, then printed a lower high at 1.4277 before a 34-pip drop broke the london low at 1.4266 and ran into 1.4243, as the digest notes DXY slipping from its highs in Europe. The 1.4243 double low has held twice into the first hour of NY, with bounces capped at 1.4254. RSI(14) sits near 34, short of oversold.
Support: 1.42435, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42543, 1.42657, 1.42849
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4254 bounce cap confirms the double low and opens the 1.4260 drop fib midpoint and the 1.4266 london low
Failure at the 1.4243 double low confirms a lower-low and exposes Monday's prior low at 1.4237
Lower highs trendline from the session high caps any recovery while price holds below it
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC, Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London high rejected; range break lower; lower highs into NY.
The London open push to the 1.4285 session high was rejected. Late London broke the 1.4266 London low and the Asian low near 1.4256, then a double low formed at 1.4243-44 into the first hour of NY. RSI(14) has recovered to the high-30s, but price sits below both EMAs and under the descending lower-highs line.
Support: 1.42435, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42555, 1.42657, 1.42849
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4243 double low exposes the prior low at 1.4237 and extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.4256 Asian low, then the 1.4266 London low (near the 50% fib of the London selloff), would neutralise the breakdown read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) are all in the NY session and could materially shift this read
A close above the lower-highs trendline from the 1.4285 session high would undo the intraday downtrend structure
Late-London range break lower; Asian range low lost, lower low at 1.4243.
After capping at the 1.4285 london high, the pair broke its 1.4266–1.4277 London base late in the session. It dropped about 40 pips through the 1.4255 asian low to a 1.4243 session low, just above yesterday's 1.4237 prior low, with RSI(14) near 31 into the NY open as USD eases off its highs.
Support: 1.42434, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42555, 1.42657, 1.42849
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4255 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and softens the break read
Fib 50% near 1.4264 sits at the london base, the area to watch for rejection on any bounce
Williams 13:05 UTC, Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday downturn after London high, oversold-leaning · RSI 37 · price 1.42506
Lower high at 1.42774 then break below London and Asian range lows.
London lifted price above the Asian range to a 1.42849 session high. A lower high at 1.42774 then gave way to a ~40-pip drop late in London, through the london low at 1.42657 and the asian low at 1.42555, to a 1.42434 session low that matches last night's trough. The move fits the digest's read of USD easing off overbought levels, with RSI(14) near 37 after the flush.
Support: 1.42434, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42555, 1.42657, 1.42849
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the asian low at 1.42555 returns price to the Asian range and softens the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.42434 session low exposes the prior low at 1.42372
A rebound into the 50% level of the drop fib (~1.42642) and the london low at 1.42657 is the area to watch for rejection or break
An M15 close above the lower highs trendline would negate the post-London downturn
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Ivey PMI (14:00) land in the next few hours and could materially shift this read
Asian range and London range broken lower; lower high below session high.
London faded from the 1.4285 session high and printed a lower high near 1.4277, then three bars took out the london low at 1.4266 and the asian low at 1.4256, a ~40-pip slide to a today low of 1.4243. The slide came ahead of NY with no scheduled catalyst. Price now sits just above yesterday's NY prior low at 1.4237, and RSI(14) near 29 shows short-term stretch.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4266, 1.4285
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 prior low extends the selloff beyond yesterday's NY range
Reclaim of the 1.4256 asian low, near the 38.2% retracement of the selloff, would mark the break as a false break
1.4266 london low and the lower highs line are first overhead resistance; a move back through the 1.4285 session high invalidates the range break
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC can materially shift this read in NY hours
Lower highs from the London session high; Asian range low broken late in London.
London rejected the 1.4285 session high and printed lower highs. A late-London break of the 1.4266 london low and the 1.4256 asian low has taken price to a 1.4253 day low, with RSI(14) near 29. The slide fits USD easing back from its highs as momentum fades, with CAD still soft on falling oil.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4266, 1.4285
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.4256 asian low turns the break into a false break. The 1.4266 london low sits at the 38.2% fib of the London drop.
Failure to hold the 1.4253 day low exposes the 1.4244 rollover low and the 1.4237 prior ny low.
A close above the lower highs trendline from 1.4285 negates the intraday lower-high sequence.
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) land across the NY open and could shift this read.
London broke the Asian high, now ranging 1.4266–1.4285 on a retest.
London cleared the 1.4270 Asian high to a 1.4285 session high, then pulled back. The 1.4266 london low has held twice near the 61.8% fib retrace, leaving a 1.4266–1.4285 range with RSI(14) neutral at 54. The grind higher tracks CAD weakness on softer oil, with the monday high at 1.4293 and the 1.4300 round number overhead.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4256, 1.4244
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4285 session high brings the 1.4293 monday high and 1.4300 round number into play
Close below the 1.4266 london low fails the Asian-high retest and exposes the 1.4256 swing low, then the 1.4244 asian low
US ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00) could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below London high · RSI 59 · price 1.42758
Asian range broken at London open; higher lows intact, holding 1.4266–1.4285.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.4270 and ran to a 1.4285 London high, extending the CAD weakness tied to softer oil. Two pullbacks held at 1.4266 (london low), near the 61.8% retrace and on rising support; price is back at 1.4276, mid-range, with RSI(14) ~59 and ATR ~5 pips.
Support: 1.42699, 1.42657, 1.42555
Resistance: 1.42849, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4285 london high reopens Monday's 1.4293 monday high and the 1.4300 area
Break below the 1.4266 london low and rising support would turn the London move into a false break back inside the Asian range, with the 1.4256 swing low next
Repeated failures in the 1.4276 area keep the range between the asian high and london high in play
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC fall early in the NY session and could shift this read
Asian range breakout, London compressing under lower highs above the retest low.
USDCAD broke the 1.4256–1.4270 Asian range at 06:00 UTC and set a session high at 1.4285 at London open, extending the CAD-driven grind on softer oil. London has since compressed under lower highs, with two retests of the 1.4266 London low (61.8% of the Asian low-session high fib) holding; RSI(14) neutral near 47, price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4256
Resistance: 1.4276, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4276 lower highs line reopens the 1.4285 session high and 1.4293 Monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4266 London low puts price back inside the Asian range toward the 1.4256 Asian low
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could break the London compression
Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 65.2) is the CAD-side risk into the NY session
10:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London rejection · RSI 45 · price 1.42704
London high rejected; pullback holding 1.4266, tight range 1.4266–1.4276.
The pre-London push broke the Asian range top near 1.4270 and set a 1.4285 session high at London open before rejection. The pullback held the 1.4266 London low twice, near the 61.8% retrace and on the rising lows line from the 1.4256 Asian low. Mid-London, price is coiling at the 50% level around 1.4270 under a 1.4276 lower high, with the CAD-led bid tied to softer oil and RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 1.42657, 1.42555
Resistance: 1.4276, 1.42849, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 london low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.4256 asian low
Close above the 1.4276 lower high reopens the 1.4285 session high, with the 1.4293 prior high above
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could break the 1.4266–1.4276 range
Higher lows since NY; London broke the Asian high, retested it, now coiling.
London broke the Asian high at 1.4270 and ran to a 1.4285 session high. Price then retested that level at the 1.4266 london low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low-to-session-high leg, and the retest held. It is now coiling between 1.4268 and the 1.4276 lower high on a rising-lows line, RSI(14) neutral near 48, with soft oil keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.4270, 1.42659, 1.42555
Resistance: 1.4276, 1.42849, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 london low breaks the rising-lows line and the retest read, exposing the 1.4256 asian low
Close above the 1.4276 lower high reopens the 1.4285 session high, with the 1.4293 prior high above
Losing the 1.4270 asian high on a closing basis puts price back inside the Asian range
US ADP 12:15, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could shift the read into NY open
Higher lows since Monday's 1.4237 dip; London holding a 1.4266–1.4276 range.
London open pushed above the Asian range to a 1.4285 session high and was rejected, with the false break retracing to the london low at 1.4266, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian-session leg. Price has since held 1.4266–1.4276 below the london high, RSI(14) neutral near 48, as soft oil and a firm USD keep CAD heavy.
Support: 1.42659, 1.42555
Resistance: 1.42762, 1.42849, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 london low marks a lower low and exposes the 1.4256 asian low
Close above the 1.4285 session high cancels the false-break read and puts the 1.4300 round number in play
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Asian range break higher, pullback held at 61.8% and prior range top.
The Asian range top near 1.4270 broke at 06:00 UTC and the London open printed a session high at 1.4285. The pullback found buyers at the 1.4266 london low, the 61.8% fib and a retest of the old range top, while firm USD on record UST yields and soft crude keep CAD heavy. RSI(14) near 56 is mid-range, not stretched.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4256, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4285 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
Loss of the 1.4266 london low and rising support reopens the 1.4256 swing low
A break of 1.4256 exposes Monday's 1.4237 prior low and negates the breakout read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London open rejection · RSI 52 · price 1.42684
Asian range break higher, pullback retesting old range top; lower high at 1.4276.
A pre-London push cleared the Asian range top near 1.4270 and set a session high at 1.4285 at London open. Price was rejected there, and the pullback held the london low at 1.4266, the 61.8% fib of the asian low to session high leg. Price is now coiling just above the old range top under EMA20, with a lower high at 1.4276. Softer crude weighing on CAD fits the earlier break.
Support: 1.42659, 1.42555
Resistance: 1.42762, 1.42849
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 1.4266 puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the asian low at 1.4256
A close above the 1.4276 lower high reopens the 1.4285 session high
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC, Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
08:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below the London high · RSI 55 · price 1.42718
Higher-low chain from Monday; pullback holding above the broken Asian range high.
Price broke the Asian range high near 1.4270 before London. London extended to 1.4285, then rejected and pulled back to a 1.4266 pullback low at the 61.8% fib and the rising trendline, leaving the higher-low chain intact. A firm USD on record US yields and softer crude keep the pair pinned near multi-month highs, and RSI(14) near 55 shows no extreme mid-London.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4256
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4266 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4256 Asian low would turn the pullback into a full reversal of the Asian-London leg
Acceptance above the 1.4285 London high reopens the 1.4293 Monday high and the 1.4300 round number
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read into the NY session
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pullback after session high · RSI 56 · price 1.42736
Higher lows from 1.4244; Asian range top retested after London rejection.
Price broke the Asian range top near 1.4270 just before London and printed a 1.4285 session high, but supply capped it and the London open pullback held a 1.4266 retest low before bouncing to 1.4274. Higher lows from the 1.4244 Asian low remain intact, with firm USD on record yields and soft oil keeping CAD heavy.
Support: 1.4266, 1.4256, 1.4244
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.4266 retest low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 1.4256 swing low in play
Loss of the 1.4244 Asian low would negate the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.4285 session high reopens the 1.4300 round number
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05, Ivey PMI 14:00 and Bowman 14:45 could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled after London rejection · RSI 53 · price 1.42684
London-open break above Asian high failed; price back at range top.
London open pushed USDCAD through the Asian high at 1.4270 to a 1.4285 London high. The last two bars unwound the break back to a 1.4266 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg. Price sits just under the Asian high and EMA20, RSI(14) cooled to ~53, with USD support from firm yields and CAD heavy on softer crude.
Support: 1.42659, 1.42555
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42849
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4270 asian high turns the false break into a retest and reopens the 1.4285 london high
Failure to hold the 1.4266 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.4256 asian low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05, Ivey PMI 14:00 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from London open high · RSI 59 · price 1.42737
Asian range broken higher at 06:00 UTC; London open spike to 1.4285 rejected; retest of breakout area under way.
USDCAD cleared the Asian range high at 1.4270 at 06:00 UTC and printed a 1.4285 session high at London open. A sharp rejection followed, and price is now retesting the breakout area near the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) at 59. The grind higher tracks a heavy CAD on softer oil and firm US yields.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4265, 1.4256
Resistance: 1.4285, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4270 and the rising trendline would put price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the prior high at 1.4265 exposes the asian low at 1.4256
A break of the 1.4285 session high opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
USDCAD broke the Asian high at 1.4270 at 06:00 UTC, clearing Monday's 1.4263 prior high. It printed a session high of 1.4285 at London open as softer crude kept CAD heavy; RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips. Pullbacks since then have held the 1.4275 pullback low.
Support: 1.4275, 1.4270, 1.4263
Resistance: 1.42849, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4270 Asian high would put the breakout back inside the range
A break of the 1.4275 pullback low and the rising trendline from the Asian low would end the higher-low chain
Session high 1.4285 and the 1.4300 round number are the cap; a close above opens trend extension
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early London extension · RSI 69 · price 1.42772
Asian range broken higher at 06:00 UTC; higher lows along a rising trendline, wick rejection at the London high.
The 06:00 UTC breakout above the Asian high at 1.4270 carried into the London open. The London high at 1.4285 drew a rejection wick, and price is holding near 1.4277 with RSI(14) around 69. Firm USD on elevated US yields and softer crude keep the pair near Monday's 1.4293 high.
Support: 1.4270, 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42849, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 1.4270 and the rising trendline returns price to the Asian range
A clean break of the london high at 1.4285 exposes the monday high at 1.4293 and the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the asian low at 1.4255 shifts focus to the monday low at 1.4237
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Break above Asian range, higher lows since 1.4237.
USDCAD broke above the Asian high at 1.4270 into the London open. The move extends the rally from yesterday's 1.4237 double bottom (prior low) to a 1.4281 session high, with RSI(14) near 74 and higher lows off the 1.4256 Asian low intact. Sliding crude and firm US yields keep CAD heavy, with the 1.4300 round number just overhead.
Support: 1.4270, 1.42555, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.42813, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4270 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 1.4281 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
A break of the Asian higher lows trendline and the 1.4256 Asian low would undo the London open breakout
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Uptrend, breakout extending into London open · RSI 76 · price 1.42798
Higher lows since 1.4237 swing low; Asian range broken higher.
A 10-pip impulse late in the Asia session cleared the 1.4270 asian high, extending the higher-low chain from Monday's 1.4237 swing low. Price is holding near the 1.4281 session high into the London open with RSI(14) ~76, as yield-driven USD strength and softer crude keep CAD heavy. The 1.4293 april high flagged in the digest sits 12 pips above.
Support: 1.4270, 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42813, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4270 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline from the 1.4256 asian low (~1.4268 now) breaks the Asia higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.4293 april high opens the 1.4300 psych level; rejection there leaves the 1.4281 session high as the cap
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05, Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 and Bowman 14:45 could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Monday NY · RSI 71 · price 1.42775
Asian range broken higher into London open, HH/HL chain intact.
A 10-pip 06:00 UTC bar cleared the Asian high at 1.4270 ahead of the London open and set a session high at 1.4280. The higher-low trendline from the 1.4256 Asian low is intact, with RSI(14) near 71 as soft crude and firm US yields keep the pair bid.
Support: 1.4270, 1.4261, 1.4256
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4270 asian high would mark a false break
Loss of the 1.4261 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline; 38.2% of the Asian leg sits near 1.4266
Close above the 1.4280 session high opens the 1.4300 round number
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Asian range break higher; higher lows since 1.4256.
After Monday's sell-off held the 1.4237 monday low twice, Asia built higher lows off the 1.4256 asian low on soft crude and firm US yields. The 06:00 UTC bar then broke the 1.4270 asian high in a 10-pip push and is now testing the 1.4280 prior high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 74, hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.4270, 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42802, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4270 asian high would mark the move as a false break
M15 close above the 1.4293 monday high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
Loss of the 1.4256 asian low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the Asia uptrend read
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain through Asia off Monday's double low, pressing the Asian high.
Monday's 1.4237 double low held twice, and the Asia session has since built a higher-low chain off the 1.4256 Asian low, in line with the digest's Asian dip-buying on soft crude and firm US yields. Ahead of London open, price is pressing the Asian high at 1.4270, just under the 78.6% retrace of Monday's London drop at 1.4272. RSI(14) is near 63, not stretched.
Support: 1.42609, 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42718, 1.42812, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4272 fib 78.6 puts the 1.4281 monday high in view, with the 1.4300 round number beyond
Break of the asia hl line and the 1.4261 asia hl would mark the first lower low of the session
Loss of the 1.4256 asian low reopens the 1.4237 double low
London open in ~1h typically expands the 2.8-pip ATR
US ADP 4-wk average at 12:15 UTC and Fed Williams at 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Grinding higher off a double low, momentum modest · RSI 61 · price 1.42674
Higher lows since 1.4237 double low; late Asia pressing the session high.
Monday's London and NY sessions both held the 1.42372 double low. Since then a chain of rising lows has formed, with the rollover swing low at 1.42439 and the asian low at 1.42555, as Asian dip demand returned on weak crude and firm US yields. Late Asia is consolidating just under the 1.42687 asian high ahead of London open. RSI(14) sits near 61 and ATR is about 3 pips, so the advance is a slow grind rather than an impulse.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42687, 1.42822
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.42687 asian high extends the rising lows toward the 1.42822 prior high
Break below 1.42555 asian low undercuts the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.42439 swing low
Loss of the 1.42372 double low negates the double bottom read
London open in ~75 min typically expands the tight Asian range
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could reshape the read into NY session
Double bottom at 1.4237, higher lows into a test of the Asian high.
A double bottom at 1.4237 held through the London selloff and the post-ISM dip. Asian dip-buying, on weak crude and firm US yields, has carried the pair back above the 1.4265 neckline and 61.8% of the London drop. Price is now pressing the 1.4269 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 3 pips reflecting a tight session range.
Support: 1.4265, 1.4256, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4269, 1.4282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4269 asian high opens the path to the 1.4282 prior high
Slip back below the 1.4265 neckline puts the 1.4256 asian low back in play
Loss of the 1.4237 double bottom voids the recovery read
London open could expand range well beyond the current 3-pip ATR
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
Higher-low chain compressing under flat 1.4268 cap, late Asia session.
Late Asia session: USDCAD is compressing just under the 1.4268 Asian high, with rising-trendline higher lows at 1.4244, 1.4256 and the 1.4261 swing low after Monday's double btm at 1.4237. Asian dip-buying fits the firm-USD, weak-crude backdrop. RSI(14) ~60 and ATR ~2.7 pips show tight ranges heading into London open.
Support: 1.42609, 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42822
What it said to watch
London close above the 1.4268 Asian high breaks the cap and opens the 1.4282 prior high
Break below the 1.4261 swing low and rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, with the 1.4256 Asian low next
Loss of 1.4256 exposes the 1.4237 double btm area
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC plus Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Short-term recovery, compressing below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 1.42657
Higher lows from 1.4237 double low, capped flat at 1.4268.
The recovery leg off Monday's 1.4237 double low has printed higher lows through Asia, in line with dip-buying on firm US yields and soft crude. Price is pressing the Asian high at 1.4268 two hours before London open, with ATR near 3 pips and RSI(14) around 61, not stretched.
Support: 1.4261, 1.42555, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4282
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high opens the 1.4282 prior high from Monday's open
Loss of the 1.4261 higher low and then the 1.42555 Asian low breaks the higher-lows chain
Close back below the 1.4237 double low invalidates the recovery read
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing under asian high · RSI 61 · price 1.42648
Higher lows into a flat 1.4267-68 cap, late Asia.
Late Asia has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline off the 1.4244 late-NY dip, with price pressing the 1.4268 asian high. The 1.4256 asian low held near the 38.2% fib of the climb from yesterday's 1.4237 double low, in step with the firm USD on elevated yields. Ranges are tight, with ATR(14) near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.42609, 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42858
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4268 asian high opens the 1.4286 prior high from yesterday's open
Close below the 1.4261 higher low breaks the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.4256 asian low exposes the 1.4237 double low
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could shift this read; Canada Ivey PMI follows at 14:00 UTC
04:31 UTC
Recovering from 1.4237 lows, compressing in late Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.42647
Narrowing Asian range 1.4256–1.4268 above a 1.4237 double low.
Monday's London selloff held twice at the 1.4237 double low, the second time around the US PMI prints. The rebound has stalled in a tight Asian range of 1.4256–1.4268, with the asian low sitting near the 38.2% of the rebound fib and the 1.4261 swing low holding. Asian dip-buying on weak crude and firm US yields lifted the pair into the range, while RSI(14) near 55 and ATR around 3 pips show compressed conditions about 2.5h before London open.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4256, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.4268 asian high around London open extends the rebound; the 1.4293 cycle high is the next reference
An M15 close below the 1.4261 swing low and the 1.4256 asian low (38.2% fib) undercuts the rebound structure and exposes the 1.4237 double low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours, plus Ivey PMI (14:00), could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.4237 double bottom; price boxed in a tight Asian range below the 50% fib.
Monday's London selloff from the 1.4292 prior high bottomed at 1.4237 twice, once in London and again in NY, forming a double btm. The CAD-led dip has been bid back with the rising trendline intact, but the pair is stalling in a 1.4256–1.4268 Asian range around the 50% fib of the drop. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR is about 3 pips into late Asia.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42916
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high clears the 50% fib and brings the 1.4292 prior high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.4256 asian low breaks the rising trendline and higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4237 double btm
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
London's slide from the 1.4293 prior high found a double btm at 1.4237 as CAD outperformed on mixed US PMIs. Since then the pair has printed higher lows through the rollover low and the asian low at 1.4255, while the Asian high at 1.4268 has capped price just under the fib 61.8 of the London selloff. Late in the Asia session the pair is flat near 1.4264 with RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) at about 3 pips.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42718, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high and fib 61.8 at 1.4272 opens a retest of the 1.4293 prior high
Break of the 1.4255 asian low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 1.4244 rollover low
Failure at the 1.4237 double btm would undo the recovery structure
London open could expand the Asia session range
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could materially shift this read
Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC is the CAD-side risk
03:46 UTC
Recovery from Monday low, stalling under Asian high · RSI 44 · price 1.42613
Higher lows off 1.4237 double low, Asian session compressing beneath 1.4268.
Monday's London-NY slide from the 1.4293 prior high found a double low at 1.4237 as CAD outperformed on mixed US services PMIs. Higher lows since then, with the Asian session dip held at the 1.4256 swing low near the 38.2% recovery fib. The Asian high at 1.4268 has capped twice, and price is drifting at 1.4261, just under EMA20, with ATR(14) compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4293 prior high
Break of the 1.4256 swing low (38.2% recovery fib) ends the Asian higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.4244 rollover low puts the 1.4237 double low back in play
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could expand the compressed Asian range
03:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 52 · price 1.4264
Higher lows off 1.4237 double low; Asia session compressing under 1.4268.
Monday's London selloff from the 1.4293 prior high, on CAD outperformance against a stalling USD, found a double low at 1.4237. Asian dip-buying has since built higher lows off the 1.4244 swing low after rollover. Price is now coiling just under the 1.4268 Asian high, with the Asian low at 1.4256 holding near the 38.2% fib of the recovery and RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high opens the 1.4293 prior high and the 1.4300 round number
Break of the 1.4256 Asian low and the rising support line exposes the 1.4244 swing low, then the 1.4237 double low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Recovering from Monday's dip, higher lows into Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.4264
Double low at 1.4237, Asian range 1.4256–1.4268 pressing the neckline.
Monday's London selloff from the 1.4293 prior high carved a double low at 1.4237. The second low printed after the mixed ISM services read in NY. Asia has since built higher lows back to the 50% fib of that selloff, and the 1.4268 Asian high is now capping as the neckline, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high completes the double bottom and opens the 1.4293 prior high
Break of the 1.4256 Asian low ends the higher lows and exposes the 1.4237 double low
ADP 12:15 UTC and Williams 13:05 UTC during NY hours could reset the session range
03:03 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows in Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.42655
Higher-low sequence off Monday's double bottom, pressing the Asian high.
Late Asia session: higher lows off the rollover dip have lifted price into the 1.4268 Asian high, sitting on the 50% retracement of Monday's 1.4293–1.4237 slide. The Monday low at 1.4237 held twice, the second test coming after the 14:00 UTC ISM Services miss, and dip-buying flagged in the digest is visible in the 1.4256 swing low. RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 3.5 pips point to a quiet, contained tape.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42479, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42718, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asian high clears the 50% retracement and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.4272, then the 1.4293 Monday high
Break of the 1.4256 swing low breaks the asia higher lows trendline and puts the 1.4248 asia low back in play
Loss of the 1.4237 Monday low negates the double bottom read
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 UTC and Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
HL chain off 1.4237 double bottom, Asian high retest.
Asian dip-buying lifted USDCAD off the 1.4244 rollover low to an Asian high at 1.4268. The 01:30 UTC pullback held 1.4256 as an asia hl, and price is now retesting the high at the 50% retrace of Monday's London drop, with RSI(14) at 63. Monday's 1.4237 double btm remains the intraday base. The 1.4293 prior high is the next reference above, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4272 in between.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42718, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asian high and the 1.4272 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 1.4293 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4256 asia hl breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.4244 rollover low
A move back below the 1.4237 double btm voids the recovery read
US ADP, Williams and Bowman later today, plus Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia range 1.4256–1.4268 inside Monday's 1.4237–1.4293 day range.
Asian dip-buying lifted the pair off the 1.4244 rollover low to a 1.4268 asia high before stalling. Price now sits mid-range just above EMA20, about halfway through the Asia session. Monday's 1.4237 double bottom, set during London and NY with elevated US yields underpinning USD, marks the base of the rebound from the monday low. The 1.4293 monday high caps the day range above.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 asia high extends the rebound toward the 1.4293 monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4256 asia low exposes the 1.4244 rollover low and the 1.4237 monday low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift this read
Higher lows off 1.4237 double low, capped below 1.4268 Asia high.
The London-session slide from the 1.4293 prior high found a floor at the 1.4237 day low, tested twice into NY as CAD outperformed on mixed US services PMIs. Asia session dip-buying has built a higher low chain (1.4244, then the 1.4256 swing low), with the 1.4268 Asia high stalling between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the selloff fib. Price sits mid-range near 1.4262, RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42681, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asia high clears the 61.8% selloff fib and puts the 1.4293 prior high back in view
Break of the 1.4256 swing low and the higher low line returns focus to the 1.4237 day low and the double bottom
Failure to hold 1.4244 higher low would negate the recovery structure
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC, plus Canada Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4237 with higher lows; capped at 1.4263–1.4268.
Monday's London selloff from the 1.4293 Monday high built a double bottom at 1.4237 across London and NY, followed by higher lows at the 1.4248 Asia low and the 1.42555 Asia pullback low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.4237–1.4268 leg. Early Asia met rejection at the 1.4268 Asia high and slipped back under the 1.4263 NY high. RSI(14) is near 55 with price pinned to EMA20, consistent with the digest's Asian dip-buying on weaker WTI and elevated US yields.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42479, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.42681, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asia high clears the NY high and opens the path to the 1.4293 Monday high
Loss of the 1.42555 Asia pullback low breaks the higher-lows trendline; below the 1.4248 Asia low, the 1.4237 double bottom is exposed
US ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC), then Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read later today
Higher lows from the 1.4237 double bottom; Asian pullback from 1.4268 holding the 61.8% retracement.
After Monday's slide from the 1.4293 monday high and a double bottom at 1.4237, the second low printed after the ISM services miss. The Asia session faded from the 1.4268 asian high to a 1.4256 pullback low, the 61.8% retracement of the overnight leg. Price is just under EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral near 53, with the 1.4263 ny highs capping just above.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42479, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.42681, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4256 pullback low breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the 1.4248 asian low
Close back above the 1.4263 ny highs and the 1.4268 asian high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4293 monday high
Loss of the 1.4237 double bottom invalidates the higher-low structure
ADP 12:15 UTC, Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman during NY hours could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Range after Monday sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 1.42574
Double low at 1.4237, higher lows into 1.4237–1.4268 range.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 Monday high unwound as USD lost steam around the soft ISM services print, with London and NY each forming a double low at 1.4237. Early Asia session saw a rejection at the 1.4268 Asia high, and price is now sitting just under the 38.2% fib of the Monday move and below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 1.4255, 1.4248, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.4255 NY base keeps the higher-low sequence off 1.4237 intact; a break exposes the 1.4248 Asia low
An M15 close below the 1.4237 double low invalidates the double bottom read
A close above the 1.4268 Asia high clears the 50% fib and opens the path toward the 1.4293 Monday high
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4237, broken 1.4263 cap now retested in early Asia.
Monday's slide from the 1.4293 monday high, as USD lost steam around ISM, made a double low at 1.4237 in London and again after the NY open. Price has since rebuilt above the 1.4263 prior cap. Asia pushed to a 1.4268 asia high before stalling below the 61.8% fib, and is now retesting the cap near the 50% retracement with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4258, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4272, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4258 asia low breaks the higher-low chain and returns price to the 1.4250s range
Acceptance above the 1.4268 asia high and the 61.8% fib at 1.4272 puts the 1.4293 monday high back in view
Loss of the 1.4237 double low would negate the recovery structure
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Bowman (14:45 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could reset the intraday range
01:04 UTC
Recovering inside range after Monday sell-off · RSI 58 · price 1.42612
Double bottom at 1.4237, higher lows since, capped at 1.4263–1.4268.
The Monday Asia spike to the 1.4293 prior high faded as USD lost steam. London and post-ISM NY both based at 1.4237 for a double bottom, with higher lows since at the 1.4244 rollover low and 1.4258. Early Asia on Tuesday pushed to 1.4268, near the 50% fib of the 1.4293 drop, and is slipping back under the 1.4263 range cap; RSI(14) ~58.
Support: 1.4258, 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4268, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4268 Asia high and 50% fib opens the path to the 1.4293 prior high
Holding below the 1.4263 range cap marks the Asia push as a false break
Break of the 1.4258 higher low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.4244 rollover low, then the 1.4237 double bottom
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) later Tuesday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Recovering off lows, early Asia push higher · RSI 66 · price 1.42663
Double bottom at 1.4237, neckline at 1.4263 just cleared.
The London fade from the 1.4293 prior high, extended as USD lost steam on the mixed ISM services read, carved a double bottom at 1.4237 (09:00 and 15:00 UTC). Early Asia has pushed through the 1.4263 neckline to a 1.4268 session high, near the 50% retracement of the decline. RSI(14) is around 66 and ATR is about 4 pips in thin Asia trade.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4258, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4272, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4263 neckline turns the breakout into a false break
Close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4272 opens the path toward the 1.4293 prior high
Loss of the 1.4258 Asia low exposes the 1.4237 double bottom
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 UTC and Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4237, Asian push above NY high.
Monday's fade from the 1.4293 day high, as USD lost steam on mixed US services PMI, found a floor twice at the 1.4237 swing lows (London and NY). Early Asia has lifted price through the 1.4263 prior high to test the 50% retracement near 1.4265, with the 61.8% fib at 1.4272 the next cap.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4255, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4272, 1.4288, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4263 prior high on a closing basis returns price to the 1.4255 asian base
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.4272 exposes the 1.4288 london shelf and 1.4293 day high
Break of the 1.4237 swing lows negates the double bottom
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC), Bowman (14:45 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4237, Asia push through prior cap.
London sold Monday's 1.4293 high down to 1.4237, and NY retested that level to form a double bottom as USD lost steam on mixed ISM services data. Early Asia has built rising lows off the 1.4244 rollover low and pushed above the 1.4264 prior cap, now just under the 61.8% fib of the drop at 1.4272. RSI(14) is near 62.
Support: 1.4264, 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4272, 1.4275, 1.4293
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4264 prior cap turns the Asia push into a false break
Acceptance above 1.4275, the prior pivot from Monday's London selloff, opens 1.4293, the Monday high
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 1.4244 rollover low puts the 1.4237 double bottom back in play
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC, Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift this read later today
Double bottom at 1.4237, early Asia pressing the 1.4265 range top.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 monday high reversed through London and NY as USD lost steam on mixed US services data. A double bottom formed at the 1.4237 monday low (09:00 and 15:00 UTC). Early Asia is now pressing the 1.4263–1.4265 range top, which sits at the 50% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 range top / 50% fib opens the 61.8% at 1.4272, then the 1.4293 monday high
Rejection at the range top and a break back below the 1.4244 rollover low reopens the 1.4237 monday low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) later Tuesday could reset the intraday range