Tight 1.4250–1.4263 range below rejected session high.
Surging Treasury yields drove a rally to the 1.4280 session high into the NY open, then a rejection took price back to the 1.4238 swing low. Since then the pair has held a 1.4250–1.4263 range for about eight hours, with the FOMC minutes barely registering. Early Asia finds price mid-range near the 38.2% retracement of the rally, with RSI(14) neutral around 46 and ATR compressed to under 4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 swing low and the 61.8% rally retracement near 1.4243
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could break the range
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below 1.4280 session high.
Surging US yields drove a NY-morning breakout from 1.4232 to a 1.4280 session high. Demand stepped in at the 1.4238 swing low, and price has since compressed in a 1.4250–1.4263 range through the FOMC minutes and into the Asia session. Price is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range high reopens the 1.4280 session high
Break below the 1.4250 range low (50% fib of the NY rally) exposes the 1.4238 swing low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below the NY high, above the NY pullback low.
The yield-driven USD bid lifted USDCAD from 1.4218 to a 1.4280 NY high. Price then retraced to a 1.4238 NY low near the 61.8% fib of the NY rally and has held a 1.4250–1.4263 range through the FOMC minutes. Early Asia session is trading quietly inside that range after a small rollover gap, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 swing low exposes the 1.4238 NY low and the 61.8% NY rally fib
Close above the 1.4263 range top brings the 1.4280 NY high back into view, with the 1.4300 18m high beyond
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could break the range
23:03 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, momentum flat · RSI 42 · price 1.42533
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below rejected session high.
The yield-driven USD bid lifted the pair from 1.4218 to a 1.4280 session high in the London-NY transition. Rejection there pulled it back to the 1.4238 NY low, just below the 61.8% fib. It has since held a 1.4250 range floor to 1.4263 range top through the FOMC minutes and into early Asia, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR compressing to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4300 18m high beyond
Failure to hold the 1.4250 range floor exposes the 1.4238 NY low and 61.8% fib zone
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC Thu could break the range
22:46 UTC
Sideways after an intraday rally, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.42548
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below the 1.4280 day high.
The London-NY transition rally from 1.4219 to the 1.4280 day high came on yield-driven USD demand. The pullback held at a 1.4238 swing low, just above the 61.8% of the rally fib. Since then, price has compressed in a 1.4250 range floor to 1.4263 range top band, with no visible reaction to the FOMC minutes and the early Asia session quiet at 1.4255.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 day high
Break of the 1.4250 range floor (50% of the rally fib) exposes the 1.4238 swing low
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could break the range
22:31 UTC
Flat after NY spike, sideways · RSI 46 · price 1.42534
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below 1.4280 day high.
Yield-driven USD demand lifted the pair out of the Asian range to a 1.4280 day high in the first hours of NY, where it met rejection. The drop to the 1.4238 NY low held near the 61.8% fib, and price has since been boxed between the 1.4250 range floor and 1.4263 range top through the FOMC Minutes and the thin post-rollover tape.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range floor exposes the 1.4238 NY low
Close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 day high
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could break the range
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below the NY spike high.
A yield-driven USD bid broke the Asian and London range (1.4208–1.4232) late in London, running to the 1.4280 ny high at the NY open before a pullback to the 1.4238 ny low. Since then, price has held a 1.4250–1.4263 range low/high band around the 50% retrace of the ny leg fib through the FOMC Minutes and the rollover gap, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 ny low and the 61.8% of the ny leg fib near 1.4243
Close above the 1.4263 range high reopens the 1.4280 ny high, with the 1.4300 18m high above
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could break the range
A reversal in US yields or Brent would undercut the USD bid behind the breakout
Tight 1.4250–1.4263 range holding above the 38.2% of the London-NY breakout leg.
USD/CAD broke the 1.4218–1.4232 London range late morning as surging US yields lifted the dollar, spiking to a 1.4280 day high in the first hour of NY before retracing to a 1.4238 pullback low. The FOMC Minutes barely moved the pair. Price has since compressed between a 1.4250 range low and a 1.4263 range top, sitting near the 38.2% of the breakout leg into the early Asia session, with ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 day high and the 1.4300 18m high
Break below the 1.4250 range low (50% fib zone) exposes the 1.4238 pullback low
Failure to hold 1.4238 negates the breakout leg
Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below the 1.4280 session high.
Surging US yields lifted the pair from 1.4219 to a 1.4280 session high early in NY, then it pulled back to 1.4238, the pullback low just under the 61.8% fib. Since then a tight 1.4250 range low to 1.4263 range top has held through the FOMC Minutes and the rollover gap. Asia session is just starting, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and price pinned just under EMA20.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range low (50% fib) exposes the 1.4238 pullback low
Close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4300 18m high beyond
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could break the range
NY rally from London high faded; 1.4250–1.4262 range since mid-NY.
The yield-driven NY rally broke the london high at 1.4232 and ran to a 1.4280 day high, then retraced to a 1.4238 swing low near the 61.8% of the move. Price has since held a 1.4250–1.4262 range through the FOMC Minutes with little reaction, and the rollover gap is now testing the range floor.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range floor exposes the 1.4238 swing low, then the 1.4232 london high
Acceptance above the 1.4262 range top reopens the 1.4280 day high
Thin Asia session liquidity after rollover; gap fill toward 1.4257 is unresolved
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could break the range
21:04 UTC
Up-leg stalled, sideways after NY rejection · RSI 48 · price 1.42566
Asian range broken higher; NY spike rejected; tight post-Minutes consolidation.
A yield-driven USD bid around the NY open broke the pair out of the 1.4210–1.4228 Asian range and up to the 1.4280 ny high. Rejection there sent price back to the 1.4238 ny low, just past the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg. Price has since held a 1.4250–1.4263 consolidation through the FOMC Minutes, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) contracting into the session close.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top reopens the 1.4280 ny high
Loss of the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 ny low and the fib 61.8% zone
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) are the next catalysts that could break the range
Tight range 1.4250–1.4263 below the NY session high.
The NY open rally broke the flat Asian/London range near 1.4230 on the US yield surge and peaked at the 1.4280 session high. Price then retraced most of the NY rally to the 1.4238 pullback low and has since compressed between the 1.4250 range low and the 1.4263 range top, with rising lows. The 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes left little mark as yields faded.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top opens a retest of the 1.4280 session high
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 pullback low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher lows inside a 1.4250–1.4263 range since the NY-hours pullback.
The yield-driven USD bid lifted the pair out of the Asian range at the 1.4228 breakout during the London-NY transition, up to a 1.4280 session high. Rejection there sent price back to the 1.4238 NY low, just past the 61.8% retracement, and the pair has held a 1.4250–1.4263 range with higher lows through the FOMC Minutes. Late NY session, RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42382, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.42634, 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range high reopens the 1.4280 session high
Loss of the 1.4250 range low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.4238 NY low
1.4293 18m high sits above the session high as the next reference
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
Tight 1.4250–1.4263 range after NY-open rejection, pressing range top.
USD/CAD broke out of the Asian range late in London and ran ~60 pips to a day high at 1.4280 as US yields surged, then saw rejection into the NY open down to a 1.4238 swing low near the 61.8% fib. The FOMC Minutes barely moved it. Price has since held a higher low at the 1.4250 range low and is pressing the 1.4263 session high late in the NY session.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.4263 session high breaks the post-Minutes range and opens the 1.4280 day high
Acceptance below the 1.4250 range low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.4238 swing low / 61.8% fib
1.4300 18m high sits above the day high; a stall there would echo the earlier rejection
Thu: Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could reset the yield-driven move
20:02 UTC
Flat, post-spike range · RSI 49 · price 1.42584
Tight 1.4250–1.4261 range after NY spike rejected from session high.
The yield-driven USD spike after the weak 10Y auction ran to a 1.4280 session high early in NY. It was rejected back to a 1.4238 NY low, roughly a 61.8% retracement of the NY rally fib. Since then price has compressed between the 1.4250 range low and 1.4261 range top into the NY close, with FOMC Minutes drawing little reaction.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high
Break of the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 NY low and the deeper NY rally fib levels
Thin Asia session likely keeps the range intact; Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thu could break it
Tight range 1.4250–1.4261 after NY-morning spike to 1.4280 and pullback.
Surging US yields drove a leg from 1.4219 through the 1.4232 London high to a 1.4280 day high in the NY morning. Rejection there pulled the pair back to a 1.4238 swing low, beyond the 61.8% of the NY rally fib. Since then it has compressed into a 1.4250 range low / 1.4261 range high box around the 38.2% level, with FOMC Minutes passing without a break and RSI(14) flat near 50 in late NY trade.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 swing low and the 1.4232 London high
Close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4280 day high, with the 1.4300 18m high beyond
Break of the higher lows line from 1.4238 ends the post-pullback recovery structure
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for a range break
19:17 UTC
Post-breakout consolidation after NY rally · RSI 51 · price 1.42565
Tight 1.4250–1.4261 range below the 1.4280 session high.
The yields-driven USD bid broke the 1.4218–1.4232 London range, with the london high giving way into NY and the session high printing at 1.4280, just shy of the 1.4293 18m high, before a rejection. The pullback held the 1.4238 ny low and price has since compressed between the 1.4250 swing low and the 1.4261 range top through the FOMC Minutes, sitting on the 38.2% of the NY rally fib with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high and the 1.4293 18m high
Break below the 1.4250 swing low exposes the 1.4238 ny low near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib
Loss of the 1.4232 london high would unwind the NY breakout
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts; the Asian session is likely to stay inside the range until then
1.4250–1.4261 range inside a 61-pip impulse retracement.
The yield-driven USD bid in early NY lifted the pair 61 pips from the 1.4219 impulse base to a 1.4280 session high, which was rejected. The pullback held 1.4238, between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib, and since 15:00 UTC price has compressed in a 1.4250–1.4261 range. The FOMC Minutes have drawn little reaction so far, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near 5 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4219
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range low (50% fib) exposes the 1.4238 pullback low
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4293/1.4300 18m high just beyond
A break of the 1.4238 pullback low puts the 1.4219 impulse base back in focus
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could break the post-Minutes range
18:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled into tight range · RSI 46 · price 1.42553
Post-spike consolidation 1.4250–1.4261 above the NY low.
Surging Treasury yields drove a London rally out of the Asian range. The move ran through the 1.4232 London high into a 1.4280 session high just after NY open, then hit rejection and fell to a 1.4238 NY low, about a 61.8–67% retrace of the London rally. Since 15:00 UTC price has compressed in a 1.4250–1.4261 range hugging EMA20, and the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes have not broken it so far.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4280 session high
Loss of the 1.4250 range low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.4238 NY low, then the 1.4232 London high
1.4300 18m high sits above the session high as the next cap
Delayed FOMC Minutes reaction or Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could break the range
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after impulse leg · RSI 52 · price 1.4257
Rising Treasury yields lifted USD broadly, and the pair broke above the asian high at 1.4228 from late London into the NY open. It ran to a 1.4280 session high, then pulled back to a 1.4238 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the rally. Late NY is now coiling between 1.4250 and 1.4261 on a higher-low line, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4293/1.4300 18m high beyond
Break of the 1.4250 range low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.4238 swing low; losing that undercuts the 61.8% fib hold
Return below the 1.4228 asian high would unwind the breakout read
A delayed reaction to the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes could break the box; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD risk
Rejection at 1.4280 high, higher low 1.4238, tight 1.4250–1.4262 range.
Treasury yields lifted USD from the 1.4218 swing low through the NY open to a 1.4280 session high. A rejection there pulled price back to the 1.4238 pullback low, just below the 61.8% fib of that leg. Since mid-NY session it has held a 1.4250–1.4262 consolidation, and the first bar after the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes was muted.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4218
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4262 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4293–1.4300 18m high just above
Break of the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 pullback low; losing it undermines the 61.8% fib hold and puts the 1.4218 swing low in view
FOMC Minutes reaction still developing; a delayed move in US yields could resolve the range
London range broken higher, NY pullback held, tight range with higher lows.
A yield-driven USD bid cleared the 1.4232 london high into the London-NY transition and topped at the 1.4280 session high. NY then pulled back to a 1.4238 ny low, about 68% of the breakout leg. Price has since held a tight 1.4250 range floor to 1.4261 range top band with higher lows, RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes released at 18:00 UTC on the current bar could expand the range well beyond the ~7.5-pip ATR
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high, then the 1.4300 round number near the 1.4293 18-month high
Break of the 1.4250 range floor and the NY higher lows trendline exposes the 1.4238 ny low
Acceptance back below the 1.4232 london high marks a false break of the breakout leg
17:46 UTC
Post-breakout uptrend, now consolidating · RSI 57 · price 1.42596
Higher low at 1.4250 inside a 1.4250–1.4261 range below the 1.4280 session high.
Late in London, USD/CAD broke out of the 1.4218–1.4232 Asian/London range as Treasury yields surged, tagging a 1.4280 session high in the first hour of NY. The pullback to the 1.4238 NY low slightly overshot the 61.8% fib of the breakout leg. Since then price has held a 1.4250–1.4261 range, with a higher low at the 1.4250 swing low, RSI(14) near 57 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42382
Resistance: 1.42615, 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4300 18m high beyond
Loss of the 1.4250 swing low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.4238 NY low
A break below the 1.4238 NY low clears the 61.8% fib of the breakout leg and erodes the breakout structure
17:31 UTC
Post-breakout, consolidating below the NY high · RSI 51 · price 1.42566
Asian/London range broken higher; late-NY compression between 1.4250 and 1.4261.
USD/CAD broke above the 1.4210–1.4232 Asian/London range in the London-NY transition. The yield-driven USD bid carried it to the 1.4280 NY high before a pullback to the 1.4238 swing low, just past the 61.8% of the NY rally. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4250–1.4261 band, with the late NY low below and the range cap above, RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price sitting on the EMA20.
Support: 1.42502, 1.42382, 1.42322
Resistance: 1.42615, 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 range cap reopens the 1.4280 NY high and the 1.4293 18m high
A break of the 1.4250 late NY low exposes the 1.4238 swing low; losing it puts the London high at 1.4232 back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, and the ~7-pip ATR is likely to expand
Post-breakout range 1.4250–1.4261 above the 1.4238 NY low.
Rising US yields lifted USDCAD out of its 1.4232 london high range during the London-NY transition, reaching a day high at 1.4280. The NY pullback found a floor at the 1.4238 ny low, just under the 61.8% of the 1.4219–1.4280 rally fib. Since 15:00 UTC price has compressed between 1.4250 and 1.4261 and is now pressing the range low at the 50% level, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 range low exposes the 1.4238 ny low and the 61.8% rally fib
Failure to hold 1.4238 puts a retest of the 1.4232 london high (breakout origin) in play
A close above the 1.4261 range high reopens the 1.4280 day high and the 1.4300 18m high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) near 7.6 pips is likely to expand
17:03 UTC
Impulsive up-leg into NY open, now pausing · RSI 52 · price 1.42562
Breakout above London high, pullback held, compressing in a tight range.
Broad USD demand on the Treasury-yield surge drove a break of the 1.4232 London high into the NY open, topping at the 1.4280 session high. The pullback held the 1.4238 NY low, between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the breakout leg, and price is now compressing in a 1.4254–1.4261 range just above EMA20. RSI is neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4254, 1.42382, 1.42322
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could resolve the 1.4254–1.4261 range and materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4261 range top opens a retest of the 1.4280 session high and the 1.4300 18m high
Loss of the 1.4254 range floor exposes the 1.4238 NY low; a close back below the 1.4232 London high negates the breakout
Spike high 1.4280, higher low 1.4238, tight NY band.
USDCAD broke above the 1.4210–1.4228 Asian range late in London and spiked to a 1.4280 session high as Treasury yields surged; the pullback held a 1.4238 swing low, just past the 61.8% of the rally fib. NY afternoon is compressing between the 1.4253 range low and the 1.4262 range top, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4238, 1.4228
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4262 range top reopens the 1.4280 session high and the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the 1.4238 swing low unwinds the breakout toward the 1.4228 asian high
16:32 UTC
Post-breakout pullback, now coiling · RSI 50 · price 1.42557
NY impulse above the London range to 1.4280, deep retrace, tight 8-pip coil since 15:15 UTC.
Rising Treasury yields drove a 62-pip NY-session breakout from the London range to the 1.4280 NY high. The pullback found demand at the 1.4238 NY swing low, just past the 61.8% fib. Price is now coiling between the 1.4253 coil low and 1.4261 bounce high near the 38.2%, with RSI(14) neutral around 50 and price holding just above EMA20.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 bounce high reopens the 1.4280 ny high, then the 18m high at 1.4293–1.4300
Break of the 1.4253 coil low exposes the 1.4238 ny swing low; losing it breaks rising support from the London low, with the 1.4232 london high below
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's $39B 10y auction could materially shift this read
Breakout to 1.4280, higher low at 1.4238, compressing beneath 1.4261 lower high.
Yield-driven USD demand pushed the pair through the 1.4232 London high (breakout lvl) at 11:30 UTC. The run reached a 1.4280 session high before the NY pullback held 1.4238 (ny low), just beyond the 61.8% fib. After London close, price is compressing between the 1.4253 range floor and a 1.4261 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 lower high reopens the 1.4280 session high, with the 1.4300 18m high beyond
Failure to hold the 1.4253 range floor exposes the 1.4238 ny low, then the 1.4232 breakout lvl
A break of the lower-high line from 1.4280 ends the compression read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London range break, higher low at 1.4238 holding below 1.4261 bounce high.
USDCAD broke above the 1.4218–1.4232 London range late in the session as US yields climbed. It ran to a 1.4280 session high in early NY, where it was rejected. A ~69% fib retracement of that rally then printed a swing low at 1.4238. Price is now rebuilding just above the ema20 near 1.4250 but is capped so far by the 1.4261 bounce high. RSI(14) is ~56 and ATR(14) is ~8 pips.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 bounce high reopens the 1.4280 session high, then the 1.4300 18m high
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence off the rally fib
Return below the 1.4232 london high puts price back inside the pre-breakout range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Asian range and London high broken; NY pullback holding as a higher low.
USD/CAD broke the Asian range and the 1.4233 london high late in London on the yield-driven USD bid, running from the 1.4219 swing low to the 1.4280 session high in the first hour of NY. The pullback, deepened around the larger-than-expected EIA crude draw, found the 1.4238 ny low just past the 61.8% of the rally fib, and the bounce to the 1.4261 rebound high keeps the rising lows intact. RSI(14) is near 56, neutral.
Support: 1.42382, 1.42326, 1.42192
Resistance: 1.42609, 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4233 london high fails the retest and breaks the rising lows trendline
Repeated rejection at the 1.4261 rebound high leaves price boxed in 1.4238–1.4261
Reclaim of the 1.4280 session high puts the 1.4300 18m high in focus
Loss of the 1.4219 swing low unwinds the whole NY breakout
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London range break, higher low held above breakout level.
Rising US yields lifted USD and broke the 1.4218–1.4233 London range, running to a 1.4280 session high in the first hour of NY. The pullback found a swing low at 1.4238, past the 61.8% fib of the NY rally but above the London high. Price is back over the ema20 near 1.4248 with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 1.4248, 1.42382, 1.42326
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low and the 1.4233 London high negates the breakout-retest read
M15 close above the 1.4280 session high opens the 1.4300 18m high
Slip back under the ema20 near 1.4248 keeps price inside the fib of the NY rally pullback zone
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (under 3h away) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4280 NY high, retesting London breakout zone.
A late-London break of the 1.4232 london high ran into the NY open on firmer US yields. The spike stalled at the 1.4280 session high, short of the 1.4293/1.4300 cap, and the first two hours of NY have printed lower highs through the 61.8% fib of the rally. Price sits on the 1.4238 ny low, just above the london high and EMA50 near 1.4232; RSI(14) is around 45 and ATR(14) about 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4232, 1.4218
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.4255, 1.4280
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.4232 london high and EMA50 retraces the whole rally and exposes the 1.4218 london low
Reclaiming the 61.8% fib at 1.4243 and the 1.4255 ny shelf would stall the pullback
A return to the 1.4280 session high puts the 1.4293/1.4300 cap back in view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, correcting from session high · RSI 58 · price 1.42466
London range break higher, now lower highs pulling back into the breakout leg.
USD/CAD broke the 1.4232 london high during the London-NY transition and ran to a 1.4280 session high as US yields firmed into the FOMC Minutes. Early NY has printed a string of lower highs and slid back to the 1.4244 pullback low, close to the 61.8% fib of the breakout leg, with price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.4244, 1.4232, 1.4219
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4244 pullback low exposes the 1.4232 london high; losing the 1.4219 swing low unwinds the breakout
A recovery through the 1.4264 lower high reopens the 1.4280 session high and the 1.4300 round number
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off the high · RSI 61 · price 1.42547
Breakout above London high, pullback with lower highs into the fib zone.
A late-London drive into the NY open broke the 1.4232 london high and the asian range, running 60 pips to a 1.4280 session high as USD caught a yield bid with 10y yields above 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Price is now pulling back into the 38.2–50% zone of the rally fib, with the pullback low at 1.4252 holding so far and RSI(14) cooled to ~61.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4232, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4280, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4252 pullback low exposes the 61.8% rally fib near 1.4243 and a retest of the 1.4232 london high
A move back inside the asian range below 1.4220 would turn the breakout into a false break
Reclaim of the 1.4265 lower high puts the 1.4280 session high and the 1.4300 round number back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 64 · price 1.42566
Impulse broke Asian range and London high; shallow pullback holding above breakout.
A 61-pip impulse in the London-NY transition, from 1.4219 to a 1.4280 session high, cleared the Asian range and the London high at 1.4232 as US yields firmed back above 5.30%. Rejection at the high pulled price back to the 38.2% fib near 1.4257, where the pullback low at 1.4255 is holding. RSI(14) has cooled to ~64 from the impulse peak.
Support: 1.42548, 1.42498, 1.42322
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4255 pullback low exposes the fib 50% at 1.4250
A break below the fib 50% opens a retest of the London high at 1.4232, the breakout level
M15 close above the 1.4280 session high puts the 1.4300 round number and the 1.4293–1.4300 highs in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read via US yields
13:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from high · RSI 63 · price 1.42565
London range break, retracing breakout leg.
Asia and London held a 1.4216–1.4233 range. Price then broke out into the NY open on firmer US yields and ran 60 pips to a 1.4280 NY high, just shy of the 1.4293 18m high. Rejection there cooled RSI(14) from above 80 to ~63, with price now holding the 38.2% fib near 1.4257 on a 1.4255 pullback low and printing a 1.4265 lower high.
Support: 1.42551, 1.42498, 1.42326
Resistance: 1.42645, 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib / prior high at 1.4250 opens a deeper retrace toward the london high at 1.4233
Acceptance back below the london high returns the read to the prior range
Recovery through the lower high at 1.4265 and the ny high at 1.4280 brings the 1.4293 18m high back into play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after impulsive leg · RSI 67 · price 1.42619
London range break, pullback holding at 38.2% fib.
USDCAD broke the London range top at 1.4233 late morning and ran about 61 pips to a 1.4280 session high into the NY open, as US yields pushed back above 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The pullback has stalled at the 1.4256 swing low, in line with the 38.2% fib of the rally, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 67 after the run-up.
Support: 1.42564, 1.42504, 1.42326
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4256 swing low exposes the 50% fib and the 1.4250 prior high
Break of the 1.4280 session high puts the 1.4293 18m high in play
Return below the 1.4233 range top negates the breakout read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Uptrend, NY spike now fading · RSI 68 · price 1.42598
London range broken higher in NY; higher high at 1.4280, first pullback underway.
Firmer USD and yields drove a 60-pip NY move out of the 1.4216–1.4232 London range. Price cleared yesterday's 1.4250 prior high and topped at the 1.4280 session high, just short of the 1.4293 18m high. The 13:00 UTC bar printed a rejection back to the fib 38.2 near 1.4257, with RSI(14) cooling to ~68 from the mid-80s.
Support: 1.4257, 1.4250, 1.4232
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4250 prior high (fib 50% area) turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4232 london high puts price back inside the pre-NY range
Push through the 1.4280 session high exposes the 1.4293 18m high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Breakout above Asian range and London high, impulsive higher highs.
USDCAD cleared the Asian range and the 1.4232 london high during the London-NY transition. It rallied about 55 pips from the 1.4219 swing low to a 1.4275 session high as US 10y yields retook 5.30%. RSI(14) near 83 is stretched, with price about 18 pips shy of the 1.4293 18m high.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4232, 1.4219
Resistance: 1.4275, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Session high at 1.4275 is the area to watch for rejection or extension; a break exposes the 1.4293 18m high and 1.4300 psych
Pullback into 1.4247–1.4250 (50% of the rally fib, near the prior high) tests whether the breakout holds
M15 close back below the 1.4232 london high would mark the move as a false break
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT plus the 10y auction could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive and stretched · RSI 84 · price 1.42656
Late-London breakout above the London range, HH/HL chain into NY open.
A late-London leg on firmer US yields broke the 1.4232 london high and yesterday's 1.4250 prior high, lifting USDCAD 47 pips off 1.4219 to 1.4266 into the NY open. RSI(14) near 84 is stretched, with the overnight hi near 1.4270 overhead and the 1.4293 18m high above that.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4232, 1.4216
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.4270 overnight hi leaves the breakout extended, with a pullback into the rally fib 38.2–50% (1.4248–1.4243) back toward the 1.4250 prior high
An M15 close back below the 1.4232 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.4216 london low erases the session's rally and returns price to the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10-year auction could materially shift this read
A move through 1.4270 brings the 1.4293 18m high into play
USDCAD left the 1.4218–1.4232 London range in the London-NY transition. The breakout leg ran about 35 pips through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.4250 as US yields pushed back above 5.30%. RSI(14) near 80 shows a stretched move, with price pressing the session high at 1.4257.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4232, 1.4218
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.4250 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a drop back below it would mark a false break
A return below the 1.4232 london high puts the 1.4218 london low back in play
Extension through the session high leaves the 1.4293 18m high as the next reference
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
12:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into the NY open · RSI 70 · price 1.42425
Higher lows since Asia; late-London break of the overnight range.
Firmer US yields lifted USD/CAD out of the 1.4205–1.4233 overnight range late in London. The breakout leg tagged a 1.4250 session high, just shy of yesterday's 1.4254 prior high, with RSI(14) near 70. Rising lows from the 1.4205 asian low remain intact, and the 1.4232 london high is the first retest level.
Support: 1.4232, 1.4218, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4254
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4232 london high puts price back inside the overnight range, toward the 1.4218 london low
M15 close above the 1.4254 prior high opens the path to the 1.4293 18-month high
Break of the 1.4205 asian low invalidates the rising lows read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10-year auction could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; London session high broken.
A late-London push cleared the Asian range top and the early London high at 1.4232. It extended a higher-low chain (1.4216/1.4218/1.4219) to 1.4241 with RSI(14) near 68, as firmer US yields underpin USD into FOMC Minutes. The broken London high aligns with the 38.2% of the London leg fib, and yesterday's prior high at 1.4250 is the next cap overhead.
Support: 1.4232, 1.4219
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4232 london high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4219 higher low breaks the intraday higher-lows chain
Close above the 1.4250 prior high opens the path toward the 1.4293 18m high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
HL chain off 1.4205 rollover low; London above Asian range, retesting session high.
Late London, price is pressing the 1.4233 session high after clearing the 1.4228 Asian high. Higher lows at 1.4218 and the 1.4219 higher low hold above rising support from the 1.4205 rollover low. The move sits at the 61.8% retrace of yesterday's 1.4250 swing high to rollover low drop, with USD underpinned by 10y yields back above 5.30%.
Support: 1.42279, 1.42192, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42328, 1.42504, 1.42543
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4233 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 1.4250 swing high and the 1.4254 prior high
A slip back below the 1.4228 Asian high puts the 1.4219 higher low and rising support in focus
Loss of rising support exposes the 1.4205 rollover low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Recovery from overnight low, stalling at 1.4232 · RSI 51 · price 1.42267
Higher lows pressing into a flat cap at the London high.
London pushed through the 1.4228 asian high to the 1.4232 london high, the 50% retracement of yesterday's slide, and was rejected there twice. Price is now compressing between that cap and a rising trendline of higher lows near 1.4225. Oil-supported CAD and firm US yields keep the pair two-way into tonight's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 1.4225, 1.4218, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4232, 1.4258
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4232 london high / 50% retracement opens the path to the 1.4258 prior high
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.4218 london low exposes the 1.4205 swing low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday recovery from prior low, ranging below session high · RSI 56 · price 1.42274
Rising lows inside a 1.4218–1.4232 London range, pressing the Asian high.
London broke the 1.4228 Asian high to a 1.4232 session high, the 61.8% fib of yesterday's NY decline, then met rejection. That left a 1.4218–1.4232 range with rising lows, and price is back pressing the Asian high mid-London with RSI(14) neutral near 56. Brent above $100 and firmer US yields are pulling CAD and USD in opposite directions.
Support: 1.4218, 1.42162, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42322, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4232 session high reopens the 1.4250 prior high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.4218 london lows exposes the 1.4216 swing low, then the 1.4205 prior low
NY open in under two hours is likely to expand the ~5-pip ATR
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT plus the 10y auction could materially shift this read
Higher lows vs lower highs inside 1.4218–1.4232 London range.
London poked above the Asian high at 1.4228 to a 1.4232 session high and was rejected, leaving price coiling between that level and the 1.4218 session low on rising support from yesterday's 1.4206 prior low. Brent above $100 has limited the rebound after the overnight ease, and ATR near 4.4 pips shows the compression.
Support: 1.42178, 1.42062
Resistance: 1.42322, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4232 session high reopens the 1.4250 swing high
Break of the 1.4218 session low and rising support exposes the 1.4206 prior low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Tight London range 1.4218–1.4232 with rising lows off the Asian low.
USD/CAD slid from 1.4277 to the 1.4205 Asian low through yesterday's NY session as Brent above $100 lifted CAD. London poked above the Asian high at 1.4228 to a 1.4232 London high, then slipped back inside. Mid-London, price sits on the rising lows and the 23.6% decline fib near 1.4221, with flat EMAs and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4218 London low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.4205 Asian low
Close above the 1.4232 London high negates the false break and opens the 1.4250 swing high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10-year auction could break the range during NY hours
Tight London range 1.4218–1.4232 above rising support from the 1.4206 swing low.
London pushed through the asian high at 1.4228 to a london high of 1.4232, then got rejected just shy of the 38.2% fib of yesterday's 1.4277–1.4206 sell-off. Price is now coiling near 1.4221, a touch below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) flat at 51, as Brent above $100 offsets firmer US yields and holds the pair above rising support.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4210, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A close below the london low at 1.4218 and rising support exposes the asian low at 1.4210, then the swing low at 1.4206
A recovery above the london high at 1.4232 (38.2% fib) puts the prior high at 1.4250 in view
Acceptance back above the asian high at 1.4228 negates the false break read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Asian range intact after a failed London break above the high.
London pushed through the 1.4228 Asian high to 1.4232. It stalled at the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's 1.4277–1.4205 drop and slipped back into the Asian range. Price now sits on the 1.4221 23.6% level, just above the 1.4218 London low, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR(14) about 4.5 pips. Firmer yields and oil above $100 are offsetting each other.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4210, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4218 london low exposes the 1.4210 asian low and the 1.4205 tuesday low
Close back above the 1.4232 london high clears the 38.2% fib, with the 1.4250 prior swing next
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
London pushed above the 1.4228 Asian high to a 1.4232 session high and was rejected. The pullback held the 1.4218 London low, near the 50% retrace of the rollover-to-London leg, which keeps the rising lows intact. Price is back mid-range at 1.4225 with RSI(14) neutral near 54, as Brent above $100 offsets firm US yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 1.42178, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42322
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4232 session high negates the London false break above the Asian high
Close below the 1.4218 London low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 1.4205 prior low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT (21:00 broker) could materially shift this read
Rising lows inside 1.4205–1.4232 range after London false break.
London open pushed through the Asian range high to a London high at 1.4232, but the break failed and price slipped to a London low at 1.4218, holding the 50% retrace of the overnight leg and the rising lows line off the 1.4205 range low. Mid-London, price is back at 1.4226 with RSI(14) neutral near 54 as firmer US yields offset oil-driven CAD support.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4232 london high negates the false break and exposes the 1.4250 swing high from yesterday's NY session
Break below the 1.4218 london low and the rising lows trendline puts the 1.4205 range low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10-year auction could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Range after Tuesday's decline · RSI 46 · price 1.42217
London false break above Asian high, back inside the Asian range.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 1.4228 to a London high of 1.4232, the 38.2% retrace of Tuesday's drop, then slipped back inside the range. Price is now 1.4222, just above the london low at 1.4218, with RSI(14) near 46. Brent above $100 is capping the bounce while firmer US yields hold a floor under it.
Support: 1.42178, 1.42162, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42322, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 asian low breaks the rising Asia lows and exposes the 1.4205 swing low
Recovery above the 1.4232 london high negates the false break; the prior bounce at 1.4250 is next
Holding above the london low at 1.4218 keeps price inside the 1.4216–1.4228 Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10-year auction could materially shift this read
London false break above Asian high, price back mid-range.
London open pushed through the 1.4228 Asian high to 1.4232. That level is the 38.2% fib of yesterday's 1.4277–1.4205 drop, and price was rejected back to the 1.4218 London low: a false break that leaves it hugging both EMAs, RSI(14) 47. The overnight grind higher from the 1.4205 Asian low came on a firmer USD into FOMC Minutes, but that drift has stalled under the fib.
Support: 1.42178, 1.42162, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42322, 1.42774
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4232 london high negates the false break and opens the path toward the 1.4277 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4218 london low and 1.4216 swing low breaks the asia trendline and exposes the 1.4205 asian low
Reclaim of the 1.4228 asian high returns price to the top of the session range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
London false break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London lifted price through the asian high at 1.4228 to a london high of 1.4232, but the move faded straight back to 1.4222, near the 1.4221 pivot cited in CAD commentary and just under EMA20. The Asia rising lows are still intact, and ATR near 4.6 pips shows a compressed tape as FOMC Minutes approach.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4210, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
A close below the session low at 1.4216 breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the asian low at 1.4210 and the 1.4205 swing low (61.8% of the overnight rally fib sits near 1.4215).
A close back above the london high at 1.4232 negates the false break; the 1.4250 swing high is the next reference.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read.
London broke the Asian range high; HL chain from 1.4205.
Higher lows from the 1.4205 rollover low through Asia, then the London session pushed past the Asian high at 1.4228 on firmer US yields. The move stalled at the 1.4232 session high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's trade-surplus selloff, and price is now retesting the old Asian high.
Support: 1.4228, 1.4216, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4250
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4228 Asian high keeps the breakout intact; slipping back inside the Asian range reverts to a range read
M15 close above the 1.4232 session high and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.4250 swing high near the 50% retrace
Break of the 1.4216 London low breaks the higher-low trendline and returns focus to the 1.4205 rollover low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Recovering, higher lows off the daily low · RSI 58 · price 1.4228
Higher lows since rollover; London open pressing the Asian range high.
Firmer US yields have USD/CAD retracing Tuesday's selloff from 1.4277 to the 1.4205 daily low. The London open lifted the pair off the 1.4216 pullback low to a session high at 1.4229, testing the Asian range top just below the 38.2% fib at 1.4233. ATR is under 4 pips, so moves are compressed.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4229, 1.4233, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4233 38.2% fib opens the path to the 1.4250 swing high
Loss of the 1.4216 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and brings the 1.4205 daily low and 1.4200 round number back into play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Short-term recovery off the lows, now stalling · RSI 47 · price 1.42229
Higher lows since rollover, compressing under the Asian high.
Yesterday's London-NY selloff from 1.4277 based at the 1.4205 day low into rollover. Asia ground higher on firmer US yields along rising support to a 1.4228 Asian high. Early London dipped to a 1.4216 london low and recovered, leaving price in a tight band just above EMA20 with ATR(14) only ~3.5 pips.
Support: 1.42162, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4228 asian high brings the 38.2% selloff fib near 1.4232, then the 1.4250 swing high, into view
Break of the 1.4216 london low and rising support exposes the 1.4205 day low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT, alongside the 10-year auction, could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Rebound from lows, higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.42249
Higher lows capped below asian high.
Early London is pressing back toward the asian high at 1.4228. The pre-open dip to the 1.4216 swing low held above the rising trendline from the 1.4205 asian low, as firmer yields into FOMC Minutes supported USD. Moves remain compressed (ATR ~3 pips), well below the 1.4250 NY swing high from Tuesday's decline.
Support: 1.42162, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4228 asian high breaks the Asia range; 38.2% of the Oct 6 decline sits near 1.4232
Close below the 1.4216 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.4205 asian low
1.4250 ny swing high caps any extension of the Oct 6 decline retracement
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT alongside the 10-year auction could materially shift this read
Asia higher lows off 1.4205 swing low, capped at 1.4228 Asian high.
Tuesday's London-NY selloff ran from the 1.4277 prior high to the 1.4205 swing low, and the Asian range then retraced only about 30% of that fib, stalling at the 1.4228 Asian high as USD demand from yields and Iran headlines returned. At London open the pre-London dip low at 1.4216 is holding on the Asia rising trendline, with price sitting on the 1.4221/1.4200 support zone flagged in the CAD digest.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4250, 1.4277
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 dip low breaks the Asia rising trendline and exposes the 1.4205 swing low and the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4228 Asian high opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4233, then the 1.4250 NY bounce high
Reclaiming the 1.4250 NY bounce would put the 1.4277 prior high back in focus
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read via US yields
Asia higher lows off 1.4205, early-Europe pullback to the 50% fib.
Asia climbed off the 1.4205 swing low into a 1.4228 asian high as USD firmed on higher yields and Iran rhetoric. Supply capped that high, and early European trade pulled back to the 50% fib of the Asia move. Buyers stepped in at the 1.4216 europe low, with price now just below EMA20/50 and ATR compressed near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4216 europe low breaks the Asia higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4205 swing low
Loss of 1.4205 brings the 1.4200 round number into play, the support flagged in the CAD digest
Close above the 1.4228 asian high reopens Tuesday's 1.4250 prior high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read via US yields
Asia HH/HL chain off the 1.4205 day low, capped at the Asian high.
The Asia session rebounded from yesterday's 1.4205 day low in a tight HH/HL chain as USD firmed on higher yields and Iran headlines. Price was rejected at the 1.4228 Asian high, the 50% fib of the 1.4250–1.4205 drop, and is retesting the 1.4220 higher low ahead of London open, with ATR near 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4210, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4220 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.4210 asian low, then the 1.4205 day low
Loss of the asia rising line from the 1.4205 low would confirm the rebound has stalled
Close above the 1.4228 asian high / 50% fib opens the 1.4250 swing high
London open volatility typically resolves the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, capped near 50% retrace of NY drop.
Yesterday's NY selloff from the 1.4250 ny swing high bottomed at the 1.4205 asian low. Asia then ground out higher lows as US yields firmed, stalling at the 1.4228 asian high, which sits on the 50% fib of that drop. Price holds just above the 1.4220 psych level into London open, RSI(14) 58, ATR around 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.4220, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42279, 1.42504, 1.42849
What it said to watch
London open break above the 1.4228 asian high and 50% fib opens the 1.4250 ny swing hi
M15 close below 1.4220 psych and the Asian rising lows line returns focus to the 1.4205 asian low
Recovery beyond 1.4250 brings yesterday's 1.4285 prior high back into view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Tuesday's 80-pip slide from 1.4285 to the 1.4205 swing low came with the Canadian trade surplus beat. Asia has built higher lows back to the 23.6% fib, but the 1.4228 Asian high was rejected at 05:30 UTC and price is sitting on the 1.4220 asian hl ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4220 asian hl breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 1.4205 swing low
Clearance of the 1.4228 asian high opens the 38.2% fib and the 1.4250 prior swing from Tuesday's NY bounce
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could reset the intraday structure
Tuesday's London-NY sell-off from 1.4285 bottomed at the 1.4205 session low. Asia has since built a higher-low chain off rising support, and price is now at the 50% retrace of the 1.4250–1.4205 leg ahead of London open. The USD bid tracks firmer US yields and renewed Iran headlines.
Support: 1.4220, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.4233, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4233 (61.8% fib) opens the 1.4250 swing high
Loss of the 1.4220 pullback low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.4205 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 1.4205 rollover low, retracing Tuesday's 1.4285-1.4205 slide.
Asia session built higher lows from the 1.4205 rollover low through the 1.4211 higher low and the 1.4220 pullback low. Price is pressing 1.4226, just above the 23.6% fib of Tuesday's slide, as USD firmed on higher yields and Iran headlines. RSI(14) sits near 69 on compressed ranges, with ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4211, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4235, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4220 pullback low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and puts the 1.4211 higher low back in focus
Prior pivot at 1.4230 (Tuesday's NY low) and the 38.2% fib at 1.4235: area to watch for rejection or break
Acceptance above 1.4235 opens the 1.4250 swing high from Tuesday's NY bounce
Loss of the 1.4205 rollover low would resume Tuesday's lower-low sequence
London open typically expands the ~3-pip Asian ATR; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY selloff, momentum firm · RSI 67 · price 1.42252
Higher lows through Asia, capped at the Asian high.
Tuesday's NY selloff, after the Canadian trade surplus beat, took the pair from 1.4275 to the 1.4205 session low. Asia has rebuilt with higher lows on firmer USD and yields, last at the 1.4220 asian hl, and price is now pressing the 1.4226 asian high for a third time ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4250, 1.4285
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 asian high opens the 1.4250 prior swing, then the 1.4285 prior-day hi
Break below the 1.4220 asian hl undercuts the Asian higher-lows trendline and points back to the 1.4205 session low
Price is stalling near the 23.6% fib of the prior-day hi to session low drop; London open volatility could test it
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read later today
04:46 UTC
Shallow intraday uptrend off the rollover low · RSI 69 · price 1.42253
Asia HH/HL chain, price pressing the Asian high.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD has climbed from the 1.4205 rollover low in a tight HH/HL chain and now presses the 1.4226 asian high, with the dollar firmer on higher US yields. RSI(14) is near 69 and ATR is under 3 pips. The 1.4220 pullback low marks the latest higher low, and the 1.4230 round number, Tuesday's afternoon pivot, sits just overhead.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4230, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 asian high and 1.4230 round number extends the Asia leg toward the 1.4250 swing high
Break of the 1.4220 pullback low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4205 rollover low
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD read
04:16 UTC
Asia rebound off lows, stalling under range top · RSI 66 · price 1.42226
Higher lows since rollover, consolidating below Asian high.
Late Asia session: USD/CAD has lifted off the 1.4205 asian low after Tuesday's London-NY slide from 1.4285. A 02:00 UTC range break through the 1.4213 asian base came on firmer US yields, and price now sits under the 1.4226 asian high, at the 23.6% fib of that drop, holding the 1.4220 pullback low and a rising trendline with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.42197, 1.4213, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42255, 1.4230, 1.4240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 asian high opens the 1.4230 prior low (Tuesday NY low) and the 1.4240 pivot
Loss of the 1.4220 pullback low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.4213 asian base
London open is the first test of the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia recovery in progress · RSI 64 · price 1.42222
Higher low and higher high in Asia after Tuesday's lower-high chain.
Tuesday's 80-pip slide from the London high at 1.4285 bottomed at the 1.4205 tuesday low near rollover. Late Asia session has since printed a higher low at the 1.4210 asian low and a breakout of the 1.4215 range, with renewed USD demand on higher yields behind it. Price is holding just under the 1.42255 asian high and the 23.6% retrace of the tuesday drop, RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.4214, 1.4210, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.42255, 1.4230, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.42255 asian high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.4230 prior low and the 1.4250 swing high
Loss of the 1.4214 breakout level and the asia trendline, then the 1.4210 asian low, voids the recovery read
Break below the 1.4205 tuesday low resumes the downtrend structure
London open in ~3h is likely to test the Asian range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.42203
Asian higher lows retesting Tuesday's 1.4220 breakdown shelf.
Tuesday's sell-off ran from the 1.4285 London-open high to the 1.4205 asia low at rollover. Asia has since printed higher lows on renewed USD demand from geopolitics and firmer yields. The rebound is stalling at the 1.4226 asia high, inside Tuesday's 1.4220 breakdown shelf, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.42108, 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42255, 1.42353, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4226 asia high opens the fib 38.2 at 1.4235, then the 1.4250 swing high
Loss of the 1.4211 higher low breaks the Asian structure; below the 1.4205 asia low, the 1.4200 round number is next
London open at 07:00 UTC tests whether the tight Asian range holds
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound · RSI 65 · price 1.42215
Lower highs from London, Asian higher lows.
USDCAD fell about 80 pips from the 1.4285 London high through NY to a 1.4205 session low after NY close. In Asia it has printed higher lows on a rising support line and broke the 1.4213 asian shelf at 02:00 UTC as the USD firmed on yields and geopolitics. It now holds just under the 1.4226 asian high.
Support: 1.4213, 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42255, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4213 asian shelf negates the Asia range break
Break of asia rising support and the 1.4205 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4226 asian high opens the 1.4250 ny swing hi, near the 38.2% of the london-ny drop
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Short-term recovery after NY selloff · RSI 69 · price 1.42223
Higher lows off 1.4205 low, testing first resistance.
USD/CAD broke out of the 1.4210–1.4216 Asian consolidation at 02:00 UTC as USD demand returned on firmer yields. Higher lows run along a rising trendline from the 1.4205 session low, and price now sits at the 1.4224–1.4226 asia high, which is also the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4285–1.4205 selloff. RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched, and ATR is about 3 pips in thin Asia trade.
Support: 1.4211, 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42255, 1.42353, 1.42504
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.4226 asia high opens the fib 38.2 at 1.4235, then the 1.4250 swing high.
A break below the 1.4211 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.4205 session low and the 1.4200 round number, the support cited in the CAD digest.
The London open in about 4h is likely to expand the current tight range.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, preceded by NY Fed inflation expectations, could materially shift the USD read.
02:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia bounce · RSI 73 · price 1.4223
Asian higher lows, break above 1.4215 cap.
The London-NY drop from 1.4285 found a floor at the 1.4205 rollover low. Asia has since built higher lows along a rising trendline and broke the 1.4215 prior cap at 02:00 UTC on renewed USD demand, setting an asia high at 1.4224 with RSI(14) near 73. The 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop at 1.4235 and the 1.4250 ny pullback high sit overhead, with the 1.4200 round number underneath.
Support: 1.4215, 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4224, 1.4235, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4215 prior cap returns price to the Asian range and negates the breakout
Failure to hold the 1.4205 rollover low and 1.4200 round number resumes the London-NY downtrend
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 1.4235 opens the 1.4250 ny pullback high
Break of the Asia rising-low trendline signals the bounce is fading
NY Fed inflation expectations and Fed Logan later today are risks to the USD leg, ahead of FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC
02:17 UTC
Downtrend off 1.4285, Asia rebound pressing resistance · RSI 78 · price 1.42232
Lower highs through London-NY; Asian higher-low chain off 1.4205, testing 23.6% fib.
Tuesday's 80-pip slide from the 1.4285 London high bottomed at the 1.4205 swing low after the NY close, as a softer dollar and trimmed Fed-hike bets weighed. Asian session has ground higher on a rising support line, and the latest bar broke out of the 1.4213 asian shelf into the 1.4224 swing high and 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 78.
Support: 1.4213, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4235 and the 1.4250 lower high
Slip back under the 1.4213 asian shelf and the rising support line returns focus to the 1.4205 swing low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 67 · price 1.42162
London-NY sell-off to 1.4205, Asia higher lows grinding back to 1.4216.
USD/CAD fell about 70 pips from 1.4277 through the London-NY transition and broke the 1.4221 support as the dollar eased with Treasury yields. It based at the 1.4205 session low around the rollover. The Asia session is grinding higher on a chain of higher lows and is testing the Asian high at 1.4216, with RSI(14) near 67 and the 23.6% fib of the sell-off at 1.4222 overhead.
Support: 1.42108, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42164, 1.42218, 1.42324
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 23.6% fib at 1.4222, which is also the broken 1.4221 support, would turn the Asia bounce into a recovery toward the 38.2% fib at 1.4232
Loss of the Asian hl at 1.4211 and the Asia support trendline puts the 1.4205 session low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC are the main event risk for USD; oil headlines remain the CAD driver
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.42133
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, tight 1.4205–1.4216 Asian range.
USD/CAD fell from the London high at 1.4285 through NY as the dollar slipped with Treasury yields, printing lower highs down to the 1.4205 Asian low. Mid-Asia, price is boxed in an 11-pip range under the 1.4216 Asian high, RSI(14) neutral near 55. Above that, the 1.4224 swing high lines up with the 23.6% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.42097, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42158, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4216 Asian high exposes the 1.4224 swing high and 23.6% fib
Break of the 1.4210 pullback low and the 1.4205 Asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance back above the 1.4250 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, paused in Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.4212
Lower highs from the London high; tight Asian range above the day low.
Yesterday's sell-off from the London high at 1.4285 ran through NY and bottomed at 1.4205 around the rollover, a dollar-led move as Treasury yields came off multi-decade highs. Early Asia session is coiling in a 1.4205–1.4216 Asian range, below the 1.4221 support level flagged in the CAD digest and capped by the 1.4224 swing high, with the fib of the sell-off showing barely a 10% retrace.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42158, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; above that, the 1.4250 ny bounce high is the next reference
Break below the 1.4205 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Push through the 1.4216 asian high without follow-through keeps the range read intact
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 63 · price 1.42127
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, now a tight Asian range under the broken 1.4221 level.
USDCAD reversed the early-London spike to 1.4285 and sold off about 80 pips through NY hours to a 1.4205 session low. The slide tracked a softer dollar as Treasury yields eased, and took the pair through the 1.4221 area flagged as support. Asia is now drifting in a tight 1.4205–1.4216 range, with RSI(14) recovering from the lows. The 1.4224 swing high, near the 23.6% selloff fib, caps the structure.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42158, 1.42241, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high reclaims broken 1.4221 support and opens the 38.2% selloff fib near 1.4235, then the 1.4250 prior high
Break of the Asian high at 1.4216 would end the current consolidation to the upside
Loss of the 1.4205 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
FOMC Minutes later today (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.4215
Lower highs from 1.4285; Asia grinding up off 1.4205 low.
USD/CAD fell ~80 pips from the 1.4285 London high to the 1.4205 ny low, with broad USD weakness outweighing softer oil and the Ivey PMI miss. Asia is grinding back to the 1.4215 asia high along a rising line, still capped below the 1.4224 swing high (23.6% fib of the London-NY drop).
Support: 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4224, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4224 swing high breaks the NY lower-high chain and opens the 1.4250 lower high
Break of the Asia rising line and loss of the 1.4205 ny low exposes 1.4200 psych and resumes the downtrend
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.42142
Lower highs from 1.4285 London high; NY break of 1.4221, Asian range 1.4205–1.4215.
USD/CAD slid about 80 pips from the 1.4285 London high through NY, breaking 1.4221 as yields and the USD eased. Early Asia session is a thin grind off the 1.4205 asian low, capped twice at the 1.4215 asian high. EMA20 has been reclaimed, with EMA50 overhead near 1.4218.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.4224, 1.42504
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 asian high brings the 1.4221–1.4224 fib 23.6% zone (old 1.4221 support) into play
Loss of the 1.4205 asian low exposes the 1.4200 round number and extends the downtrend sequence
Only a reclaim of the 1.4250 swing high breaks the NY lower-high chain
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in early Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.4214
NY lower highs/lows into 1.4205; tight 1.4205–1.4215 Asia base.
The London-to-NY slide from 1.4285 broke the 1.4222 prior supp and bottomed at the 1.4205 24h low into rollover, as softer yields and a weaker dollar outweighed falling oil. Early Asia is grinding back toward the 1.4215 ny high on thin ranges, with ATR near 2.6 pips and price above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4215, 1.4222, 1.4250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 ny high opens a retest of 1.4222, the prior supp now overhead
Loss of the 1.4205 24h low resumes the NY lower-low chain toward the 1.4200 round number
Recovery through the 38.2% of the london-ny drop (~1.4236) and the 1.4250 swing high needed to negate the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD and this read later today
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 53 · price 1.42126
Lower highs from 1.4285; tight Asian range above session low.
The London spike to 1.4285 reversed through NY hours into an ~80-pip slide as USD eased with yields and oil. The rollover session low at 1.4205 is holding, and the early Asia session is consolidating in a tight 1.4205–1.4214 range with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.4224, 1.42448
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 prior high and the 1.4224 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4205 session low exposes the 1.4200 round number
Fib 50% retracement of the slide sits at 1.4245, the first upside test if the bounce extends
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in early Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.42135
Lower highs/lower lows from London open high; tight 1.4205–1.4215 base since late NY.
USDCAD fell ~80 pips from the London-open high at 1.4285 to a day low at 1.4205 at the rollover, losing the 1.4221 prior support as the dollar eased with Treasury yields. Early Asia is drifting back to 1.4214, capped at the late-NY swing high at 1.4215; the 23.6% fib of the London-NY drop sits at 1.4224, in line with prior support.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42153, 1.4224
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4215 swing high puts the 1.4224 prior support / 23.6% fib in play as a retest of the broken level
Loss of the 1.4205 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 round number
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read