Lower highs from the 1.4293 week high; compression above weekly open.
Since Monday's early spike to the 1.4293 week high, each rally has stalled at a lower high: 1.4285 at Tuesday's London open, then 1.4280 on Wednesday. Wednesday's rebound from the 1.4205 week low came at the London-NY transition on the US yield surge, then stalled at the falling trendline. The pullback held the 1.4238 swing low, about 56% of that leg, and price has since compressed in a 13-pip band between the weekly open/EMA(20) and the 1.4263 range top. The FOMC minutes barely registered, and RSI(14) sits near 62.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4280 lower high breaks the sequence and puts the 1.4293 week high back in view
Loss of the weekly open/EMA(20) at 1.4246-1.4249 and then the 1.4238 swing low would undo Wednesday's rebound and reopen the 1.4205 week low
Thursday's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) are the next tests of the range top at 1.4263; Friday's Canada jobs data could reset the read
USD/CAD has rotated inside a 1.4206–1.4293 range since Monday's open. Each push has printed a lower high: the 1.4293 week high Monday, 1.4285 Tuesday and the 1.4280 wed high after Wednesday's yield-driven spike at the NY open. The pullback from that spike held the 1.4238 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the rally off Tuesday's low, and price has since compressed around 1.4255–1.4260, above EMA(20) and the 1.4249 weekly open. The FOMC Minutes barely registered, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR easing to about 13 pips into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4238, 1.4206
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line near 1.4280 (wed high) breaks the descending-high sequence and exposes the 1.4293 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4249 weekly open and EMA(20) shifts focus to the 1.4238 swing low; a break there reopens the 1.4206 week low
Thu: Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and the 30y auction could move yields and this read; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC
1.4205–1.4293 range with highs compressing lower each day.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high, an 18-month high, faded through London. Tuesday's London push stalled at 1.4285 and sold off into NY, down to the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's yield-driven USD rebound lifted the pair into the NY session but left another lower high at 1.4280. Price has since held the 1.4238 swing low and is flat around 1.4255, just above the weekly open and EMA(20), with little reaction to the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and 1.4280 lower high breaks the daily compression
Clearance of the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 handle invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low and the 1.4248 weekly open reopens the 1.4205 week low
US Jobless Claims and Fed's Waller/Musalem Thursday could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Friday 12:30 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the range
USDCAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia-session spike to the week high near the 18-month top. Each rally since then has printed a lower high: 1.4293 Monday, 1.4285 Tuesday and the 1.4280 Wed high. Tuesday's London-to-NY slide to the 1.4205 week low was retraced on Wednesday as US 10Y yields hit 24-year highs and the NY session drove a spike that was rejected at 1.4280. The pullback held the 1.4238 pullback low, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Wednesday rally, and price is now back above the weekly open, EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 61 and FOMC Minutes barely moving the tape.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42382, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4248 weekly open and 1.4238 pullback low turns focus back to the 1.4205 week low
Fed's Waller and US Jobless Claims Thursday, then Canada jobs Friday 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 1.4293 inside a 1.4205–1.4293 range.
USD/CAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia-session week high. It has printed lower highs at 1.4285 on Tuesday and 1.4280 on Wednesday, while Tuesday's London-into-NY drop set the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's spike around the NY open, on the Treasury yield surge, was rejected at the lower high. The pullback held the 1.4238 swing low, and price is now back above the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.4243, with RSI(14) near 62. The first hour after the FOMC Minutes has been muted, with price parked around the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's drop.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42382, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 handle back in play
Failure to hold the weekly open and the 1.4238 swing low reopens the 1.4205 week low
Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side catalyst for a range break
Lower highs inside a 1.4205–1.4293 weekly range, rising lows since the week low.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia spike to the week high, and each rally has topped out lower: 1.4285 Tuesday, then the 1.4280 today high. Tuesday's London session drove the slide to the 1.4205 week low. Today's yield-driven USD bid lifted the pair into the London-NY transition before a rejection under the lower-highs line. Price now sits above EMA(20), around the 61.8% retracement of the week drop, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish read puts the 1.4293 week high and 1.4300 psych level back in play
An H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.4280 today high breaks the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low and the rising lows line reopens the 1.4205 week low
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the next event risk for the range
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's session open. Each push higher has stalled at a lower high: the 1.4293 week high Monday in early London, 1.4285 Tuesday, then the Wednesday high at 1.4280 into the NY open as surging Treasury yields revived USD demand. That spike met rejection, and the pullback held the swing low near 1.4238, close to the 50–61.8% retracement of the rebound off Tuesday's 1.4205 week low. Price now sits back above the 1.4248 weekly open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42375, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (about 1h) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the Wednesday high at 1.4280 breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4248 weekly open and the 1.4238 swing low re-opens the 1.4205 week low
Canada labour data Fri 12:30 UTC (unemployment f/c 6.5%) is the next scheduled CAD risk to the range
1.4205–1.4293 week range with a descending lower-high sequence; higher low today at 1.4216.
USDCAD has rotated between Monday's Asia-session week high at 1.4293 and Tuesday's late-NY week low at 1.4205, with each push higher printing a lower high: 1.4285 at Tuesday's London open, then 1.4280 today. Today's yield-driven USD bid lifted the pair into the NY open, but the spike to the 1.4280 wed high met rejection beneath the lower-high trendline. Price is back near the 1.4249 weekly open, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the week high-low fib. It holds above the ema20 (~1.4238), and RSI(14) sits near 58.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.4280 wed high reopens the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number
Loss of the weekly open, then the ema20 and today's 1.4238 NY pullback low, exposes the 1.4205 week low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled test of the range
USD/CAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia-session week high, with each push higher printing a lower high: 1.4293 Monday, 1.4285 Tuesday and 1.4280 Wednesday. Wednesday's yield-driven USD bid lifted the pair about 75 pips off the week low into the NY open before supply capped it at 1.4280. The pullback found demand at 1.4238, just above the ema cluster and inside the 50–61.8% fib of that rally. Price is now pivoting on the weekly open at 1.4249, with RSI(14) back near 54 ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4237, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-high trendline near 1.4280 reopens the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 handle
Failure to hold the 1.4237 ema cluster exposes the 1.4205 week low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5% unemployment) is the next CAD-side risk to the range
14:03 UTC
Range with lower highs, bounce off week low · RSI 63 · price 1.42569
USDCAD set its week high at 1.4293 in Monday's Asia session. Each rally since has stalled lower, at 1.4285 into Tuesday's London open and at the 1.4280 wed high near the London-NY transition. The Tuesday NY slide to the 1.4205 week low tracked oil-driven CAD swings, and Wednesday's yield-led USD bid lifted price back above ema20. The latest spike was rejected and price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the week high-low move at 1.4259, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.4233, 1.4237, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4259, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4293 week high in play
Failure back below ema20 and the 1.4237 monday low reopens the 1.4205 week low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read via US yields
Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC and Brent/Hormuz headlines are the main CAD-side risk to the range
1.4205–1.4293 range: lows flat near 1.4201–1.4205, highs stepping lower since Monday.
USD/CAD rebounded about 75 pips into the NY open from Tuesday's 1.4205 week low as 10y yields retook 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The spike drew a rejection at the 1.4280 session high, just under the lower-highs line from Monday's 1.4293 week high and Tuesday high at 1.4285. Price now holds above the 1.4249 week open and the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) ema cluster near 1.4236, with RSI(14) at 67, but the H1 structure is still a range, with Tuesday's low holding just above Friday's post-NFP 1.4201 trough.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4236, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4285 tuesday high and the lower-highs line breaks the descending-highs sequence and exposes the 1.4293 week high
Failure back below the 1.4249 week open, near the 38.2% of the Wednesday rebound fib, shifts focus to the 1.4236 ema cluster
Loss of the 1.4205 week low breaks the floor of the range
FOMC Minutes (18:00 GMT) and the 10y auction can materially shift this read
Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD risk to the range
Lower highs from 1.4293; rebound testing 50% retrace.
USDCAD printed the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session and a lower high at 1.4285 early Tuesday, then London and NY drove the pair down to the 1.4205 week low as Brent pushed back above $100. Today's rebound on firmer US yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes has built higher lows off that low and lifted price above the ema20 and, marginally, the ema50. The rally is now retesting the 1.4249 weekly open, which lines up with the 50% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) back in the low 60s.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4220, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4285, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4249 weekly open and 50% retrace opens the path to the 1.4285 lower high
Rejection at 1.4249 and a drop back below the ema50 at 1.4238 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the ema20 near 1.4220 and the higher lows exposes the 1.4205 week low
Close above the 1.4293 week high negates the lower-highs downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend from Monday's high, now stabilising · RSI 48 · price 1.42283
Lower highs at 1.4293/1.4285, double-top neckline 1.4238 broken; shallow rising-lows rebound off 1.4205.
USDCAD peaked at the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session, and the London-open retest on Tuesday stalled at 1.4285. The pair then sold off through the NY session as Brent pushed back above $100, breaking the 1.4238 double-top neckline and printing a week low of 1.4205 at the daily rollover, just above Friday's nfp low of 1.4201. Wednesday has been a slow grind of rising lows through Asia and London. Price is straddling ema20 near 1.4226, capped so far by the day high at 1.4232 and sitting just above the 23.6% fib of the Mon-Tue drop, with RSI(14) back near 48 from sub-40.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4205, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4238, 1.4249
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4238 neckline (38.2% fib) reopens the 1.4249 weekly open / 50% fib
Break of the rising lows and the 1.4205 week low confirms a lower low toward the 1.4201 nfp low
Repeated failure at the 1.4232 day high keeps the post-breakdown consolidation intact
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the 10y auction could materially shift this read
Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC and Brent holding $100 are the CAD-side swing factors
10:04 UTC
Downtrend from week high, stalling near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.42214
Lower highs 1.4293/1.4285, double top neckline broken, tight base above 1.4205.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high and Tuesday's failed retest at 1.4285 left a double top with lower highs. The neckline gave way into London-NY on Tuesday as Treasury yields fell, and Tuesday's drop ran to a 1.4205 week low before Brent above $100 kept CAD supported. Wednesday has stalled in a 1.4216–1.4232 band, with the london low holding underneath, the day high capping above, and price pinned just under the ema20 (1.4225) as RSI(14) recovers from the 30s to ~46.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4232, 1.4248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4232 day high and the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's drop (1.4235) shifts the read toward a deeper recovery toward the 1.4248 week open
Failure to hold the 1.4216 london low and then the 1.4205 week low extends the lower-low sequence from the double top
Price holding below the ema20 keeps the lower highs trendline structure intact
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10-year auction could materially shift this read; Canada LFS on Friday is the next CAD-side risk
09:04 UTC
Downtrend from Monday's high, basing near week low · RSI 49 · price 1.42208
Lower highs from 1.4293; tight consolidation above 1.4205 week low.
The week opened at 1.4249. Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 18-month high faded through London, and Tuesday's London-into-NY selloff from 1.4277 broke Monday's 1.4237 floor down to the 1.4205 week low as US yields slipped after the soft wage data. Wednesday's Asia/early London recovery has stayed shallow, printing a higher low near 1.4216 but stalling at the 1.4232 day high, with closes pinned around the flattening ema20 near 1.4225 and RSI(14) back near 50 from oversold.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4232, 1.4249
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4232 day high and 38.2% fib (1.4238) would challenge the lower highs sequence toward the 1.4249 week open
Failure to hold the 1.4216 higher low, then a break of the 1.4205 week low, exposes the 1.4201 friday low and 1.4200 round number
Canada jobs data on Friday is the next CAD-side catalyst for the Mon-Tue drop structure
07:03 UTC
Downtrend from Monday high, bounce stalling at ema20 · RSI 48 · price 1.42224
Lower high at 1.4285 under the 1.4293 week high, Tuesday's lower low at 1.4205.
After Monday's Asia spike to 1.4293, Tuesday's London push was rejected at a lower high of 1.4285. The pair then slid about 80 pips through the NY session to a weekly low at 1.4205, as the Canadian trade-surplus beat and easing US yields lifted CAD. Wednesday's Asia bounce on firmer yields has stalled at the asian high near 1.4228, right at a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) back near 48. Price remains well below the weekly open at 1.4249, which sits at the 50% retracement of Tuesday's drop.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4249, 1.4285
What it said to watch
H1 close below the weekly low at 1.4205 and the 1.4200 round number confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend read
Reclaiming the weekly open at 1.4249 (Tuesday drop 50% fib) would neutralise the lower-highs structure
Break of the lower high at 1.4285 and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read via US yields
Canada September jobs on Friday 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-specific risk to the structure
06:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend, Asia bounce stalling at ema20 · RSI 46 · price 1.42243
Lower high 1.4285 under 1.4293 week high, lower low 1.4205 above Friday's 1.4201 low.
USDCAD set the week high at 1.4293 in Monday's Asia session and printed a lower high at 1.4285 in Tuesday's London session. The NY session then drove an 80-pip Tuesday drop through the monday low to a week low at 1.4205, as easing yields, softer crude-linked USD demand and the CAD trade-surplus beat weighed. Wednesday's Asian range has retraced about 30% of that move, with price pinned at the ema20 near 1.4226 and RSI(14) recovering to ~45 from near 30. The week low and Friday low at 1.4201 form a shelf beneath, while the monday low lines up with EMA(50) and the 38.2% level overhead.
Support: 1.42046, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42255, 1.42372, 1.42485
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 1.4201 breaks the window floor and extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close back above the monday low/EMA(50) at 1.4237 and the weekly open at 1.4249 would turn Tuesday's break into a false break
Rejection at the ema20 keeps the lower highs sequence intact; only a move above 1.4285 changes it
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read via US yields
1.4205–1.4293 week range; lower high Tue, price under weekly open.
USDCAD spiked to the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session but was rejected through London. Tuesday's 1.4285 lower high gave way in the NY session as the Canadian trade surplus beat and a softer USD pulled the pair to the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's Asian range has stalled at the 23.6% fib of that drop and EMA(20) near 1.4226, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s and price still below the weekly open at 1.4249.
Support: 1.42046, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.42263, 1.42485, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low and the 1.4200 round number would extend the lower-low sequence from Monday's high
Acceptance above EMA(20) and the weekly open at 1.4249 (near the 50% fib) returns price to the middle of the range
A close above the lower-high trendline from the 1.4293 week high would negate the rejection read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD risk
USD/CAD printed lower highs at 1.4293 Monday and at the 1.4285 Tue high before a London-led selloff, extended into NY after Canada's trade surplus beat and a softer USD, broke the Monday-Tuesday 1.4237-1.4293 range. The drop stalled at the 1.4205 week low, just above Friday's 1.4201 NFP low, and Asia-session buying has lifted price back to test EMA(20) near 1.4226 with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s. The weekly open at 1.4249, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the week's drop, is the next reference above.
Support: 1.42046, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42262, 1.42485, 1.42849
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 NFP low breaks the Friday/Wednesday base and confirms a lower low
Repeated rejection at EMA(20) near 1.4226 keeps the Tuesday breakdown intact
Recovery above the 1.4249 weekly open and 50% fib neutralises the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4285 Tue high above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs at 1.4293 and 1.4285; Monday low broken, price basing above the Friday low.
The week's high at 1.4293 printed early Monday, ahead of London, and was followed by a lower high at 1.4285 on Tuesday. Tuesday's London-NY transition then broke the monday low at 1.4237 as CAD firmed on the trade surplus beat and a softer USD, with NY extending the drop to the tuesday low at 1.4205, just above the friday low (NFP spike) at 1.4201. The Asia session has bounced back to the ema20 near 1.4226 with RSI(14) recovering from the low 30s, but price is still trading below the weekly open at 1.4249.
Support: 1.42046, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42264, 1.42372, 1.42485
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 friday low and 1.4200 round number confirms a lower-low and extends the range break
Recovery above the 1.4237 monday low, the 38.2% fib of the Monday high-Tuesday low move, negates the breakdown read
Reclaiming the 1.4249 weekly open, the 50% fib, would put the lower-high trendline from 1.4293 back in play
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 1.4226 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from Monday's 1.4293 peak; Monday range low broken Tuesday.
After Monday's spike to 1.4293 and a lower high at 1.4285 early Tuesday, the London session broke the pair through the monday low at 1.4237. Selling extended into NY hours as the dollar slipped with Treasury yields. Price is now holding a tight 1.4205–1.4216 band just above the week low and Friday's nfp low, still capped beneath the falling ema20 near 1.4227. RSI(14) is recovering from the low 30s without making a new low.
Support: 1.42046, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.42372, 1.42485
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the ema20 at 1.4227 would mark the first break of the lower-high sequence since Tuesday
Reclaim of the monday low at 1.4237, which sits near the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's drop, would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the week low at 1.4205 and the nfp low at 1.4201 confirms a fresh lower-low below the 1.42 handle
Weekly open at 1.4249 is the upper reference near the 50% retracement of Tuesday's leg
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar
Lower high then break of Monday's low; tight Asian range above swing low.
Monday's early-London spike to the 1.4293 week high failed, and Tuesday's London push stalled at a lower high near 1.4285. That bar rolled over into the NY session, breaking Monday's 1.4237 low and the 1.4221 shelf as yields and oil eased after the soft NFP and weighed on the dollar. Asia has held a tight 1.4205–1.4215 range just above the 1.4205 swing low, with price below EMA(20) and RSI(14) recovering to ~41 from the low 30s.
Support: 1.42046, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.4227, 1.42485, 1.42932
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC: a hawkish read reviving October-hike talk could reverse the NY-session breakdown
An H1 close below the 1.4201 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4200 psych area
Recovery above the ema20 and 1.4221 shelf neutralises the breakdown; the weekly open at 1.4249 coincides with the 50% fib
Canada LFS Fri Oct 9 12:30 UTC: a strong print adds pressure on the swing low, a soft one revives a test of the week high
00:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside a four-day range · RSI 32 · price 1.42121
Lower high at 1.4285 under 1.4293 week high; testing the range floor.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high faded through London. Tuesday's retest stalled at a lower high near 1.4285, then sold off roughly 80 pips from the London-NY transition into NY hours as Treasury yields and the dollar eased, closing through the 1.4221 pivot. Price is now pinned just above the tuesday low at 1.4205 and Friday's nfp low at 1.4201, below the ema20 near 1.4228, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.4205, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4221, 1.4228, 1.4293
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the four-day range floor that has held since Thursday.
Reclaiming the 1.4221 pivot and the ema20 at 1.4228 would turn Tuesday's break into a false break.
The 50% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday drop near 1.4249 capped Tuesday's NY bounce; a close above it would ease the downside read.
Only a move back through the lower-highs line and the 1.4293 week high restores the upside structure.
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.