1.4205–1.4293 weekly range with lower highs pressing on marginally higher lows.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4293 range all week. Each rally has stalled at a lower high: Monday's Asia-session week high at 1.4293, Wednesday's London spike to 1.4280 and Thursday's 1.4277, which together form a descending trendline. Thursday's rejection from the thu high ran through the London-NY transition and NY hours as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation, unwinding Wednesday's rally and leaving price below EMA(20) near 1.4239 with RSI(14) at 38. Demand has stepped in at the thu low of 1.4216, just above Tuesday's week low of 1.4205, keeping lows marginally higher for now.
Support: 1.4216, 1.4205, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and exposes Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.4239, which coincides with the 38.2% level of the thu drop fib, would neutralise Thursday's rejection
A break of the thu high at 1.4277 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.4275 reopens the 1.4293 week high
Canada jobs (LFS) Fri 12:30 GMT, with employment forecast at 7K, plus US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Sideways, lower highs building · RSI 38 · price 1.42244
1.4205–1.4293 range, four lower daily highs.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia spike to the week high, with each day's high lower than the last: 1.4293, 1.4285, 1.4280 and 1.4277. Thursday's NY session was rejected at the lower highs line and slid back below EMA(20) and the 1.4249 weekly open as the USD gave back gains on Trump's Iran de-escalation, with RSI(14) easing to about 38. Price now sits near the 78.6% level of the Wednesday rally fib, just above the day low at 1.4217 and the week low at 1.4205.
Support: 1.42168, 1.42046, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4243, 1.42485, 1.42772
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and brings Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value into view
A recovery above EMA(20) and the 1.4249 weekly open, then a close through the lower highs line near 1.4276, would invalidate the compression read
Failure to hold the 1.4217 day low would put the full Wednesday rally fib retracement in play
Canada LFS on Fri at 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) and UMich inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Range with lower highs, momentum turning down · RSI 34 · price 1.42186
1.4205–1.4293 week range, highs stepping lower each day.
USDCAD has traded a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's week high. Each daily high has come in lower: 1.4293, 1.4285, 1.4280 and Thursday's 1.4277 lower high in London, all capped by a lower-high line. Thursday's drop through NY hours, as USD gave back gains on Iran de-escalation headlines, put price below EMA(20) and the 1.4249 week open, with RSI(14) slipping toward the mid-30s. Price now sits on the Thu low at 1.4218, just above the 1.4205 week low and the 1.4191 fair value area.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4205, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.4191 fair value area
Recovery above the 1.4249 week open and the lower-high line near 1.4275 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Retracement of Thursday's drop stalling near its 50–61.8% zone (1.4248–1.4255) keeps the rejection read intact
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, add USD-side event risk
Contracting 1.4205–1.4293 range: lower highs against a higher low.
USDCAD has held a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia-session week high. Successive lower highs at 1.4285, 1.4280 and Thursday's 1.4277 track a descending trendline, while Wednesday's 1.4205 week low and Thursday's 1.4220 low form a higher low. Thursday's rejection at the 1.4277 Thursday high turned into an NY-session slide back below the 1.4249 week open and EMA(20), in step with the USD fade as Trump's Iran comments cooled oil and DXY tested 102.00. RSI(14) near 37 sits in the lower half of its cycle without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.4220, 1.4205, 1.4191
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4220 Thursday low breaks the higher low and exposes the 1.4205 week low, then Scotiabank's 1.4191 fair value area
Recovery back above the 1.4249 week open and EMA(20) returns price to mid-range
Close above the lower-highs trendline near the 1.4277 Thursday high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Canada jobs (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 7K) and US UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Range with lower highs, momentum turning down · RSI 38 · price 1.42244
The week opened at 1.4249 and printed the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session. Each day since has capped lower (1.4285, 1.4280, 1.4277), compressing the 1.4205–1.4293 range, and Thursday's rally stalled near the 78.6% retracement of the Mon-Tue drop. NY hours then reversed price from that lower high to a 1.4220 today low as the 30Y auction stress faded and Trump's Iran de-escalation comments trimmed the haven USD bid, leaving price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.42196, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.42772, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4205 week low breaks the weekly range floor and confirms a lower-low
Failure to hold the today low at 1.4220 puts the week low back in focus
Recovery above EMA(20) near 1.4248 and then the 1.4277 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Canada jobs data (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 7K, 6.5%) and US Michigan sentiment plus inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4293 week high would reopen the 18-month-high test
Contracting range 1.4205–1.4293, lower highs vs higher lows.
After Monday's Asia session week high at 1.4293, Tuesday's London-NY transition selloff set the week low at 1.4205. Rebounds since have stalled at successively lower highs (1.4285, 1.4280, then 1.4277 today), even with hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields keeping USD bid. A rejection during NY hours today ran to the thu low at 1.4223, holding above the week low, which keeps the higher lows intact. Price now sits back below the weekly open at 1.4249, where EMA(20) and EMA(50) cluster, with RSI(14) near 43 and the range narrowing.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4277 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 1.4293 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4223 thu low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4205 week low; a close below it marks a range break lower
Reclaiming the weekly open at 1.4249 and the EMA cluster would neutralise today's rejection
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC today and Friday's Canada LFS at 12:30 GMT (f/c 7K, 6.5%) could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Sideways, contracting below the week high · RSI 45 · price 1.42479
1.4205–1.4293 range with lower highs and a higher low.
USD/CAD has held a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia-session spike to the week high. Each push higher has stalled at a lower high: 1.4293, 1.4285, 1.4280 and Thursday's 1.4277. Wednesday's NY spike, on USD demand ahead of the FOMC minutes, faded quickly. Today's NY selloff held the 1.4223 NY low above the week low, setting a higher low. Price is back near 1.4248, around the 50% level of the week-range fib, just under EMA20 at ~1.4255 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.4223, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4255, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-high trendline near 1.4277 breaks the compression and puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4223 NY low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.4205 week low
A reclaim of EMA20 near 1.4255 would return price to the upper half of the range
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and Friday's Canada LFS (12:30 UTC, f/c 7K) could resolve the range
14:04 UTC
Sideways after Monday's rejection, range compressing · RSI 48 · price 1.42442
Lower highs from 1.4293 against higher lows from the 1.4205 week low.
Monday's Asia spike to the 1.4293 week high (the 18-month high) was rejected, and the Monday–Tuesday drop ran to the 1.4205 week low through London and NY on Tuesday after Canada's trade surplus beat. Since then the pair has printed higher lows off a rising line from that low, while each rebound capped at a lower high (1.4285, 1.4280, 1.4277). Thursday's NY open rejection from 1.4277 pushed price back below EMA(20) near 1.4255, EMA(50) near 1.4251 and the 1.4249 weekly open; it now sits on the rising line near 1.4240 with RSI(14) at 48.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4237, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising line near 1.4240 and the 1.4237 monday low would break the higher-low sequence and reopen the 1.4205 week low
Recovery above the 1.4249 weekly open and EMA(20) keeps the compression intact; a close above the 1.4277 lower high breaks the series of lower highs toward the 1.4293 week high
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) today could move the range edges
Canada LFS Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c +7K, UR 6.5%) is the main risk to the compression
Monday's Asia spike to the 1.4293 week high, an 18-month peak, was rejected. Tuesday's slide into NY after the Canada trade beat found the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's London-to-NY rebound on firm USD and yields has since compressed into a pennant, with lower highs capping at 1.4277 and a higher low holding at 1.4243 near the 50% of the Wednesday rally fib. Price sits just above EMA20 at 1.4261 with RSI(14) flat around 54 and ATR near 12 pips.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4243, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4277, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4277 lower high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4243 higher low and the rising higher-lows line exposes the 1.4205 week low
Repeated H1 closes below EMA20 at 1.4261 would weaken the coil read
US jobless claims, Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could break the pennant during NY hours
Friday 12:30 UTC Canada jobs report (f/c +7K, 6.5%) is the next major test of the range
Higher lows since Tuesday beneath a falling line of lower highs.
USDCAD printed the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session. It then slid to a 1.4205 week low through Tuesday's NY session as the C$4.2B trade surplus beat lifted CAD. Since then the pair has built higher lows at 1.4238 and 1.4243, now above the 61.8% retrace of the week range, while Wednesday's yield-driven push in the first hour of NY stalled at the 1.4280 wed high; price sits above the ema20 near 1.4261 with RSI(14) near 58, pressing the lower-highs line into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4243, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high and the lower-highs line opens the 1.4293 week high and the 1.4300 round number
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.4261 keep the higher-lows sequence intact
Loss of the 1.4243 higher low and the rising higher-lows line shifts focus back toward the 1.4205 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
Canada LFS on Fri at 12:30 UTC is the next CAD catalyst for the compression
Lower highs against higher lows inside the 1.4205-1.4293 week range.
Since Monday's Asia-session push to the 1.4293 week high, USDCAD has printed lower highs at 1.4285, 1.4280 and 1.4270, with higher lows at 1.4205 and 1.4243. Tuesday's slide to the week low came alongside the Canadian trade-surplus beat, and Wednesday's NY-session rally on broad USD demand from multi-decade-high Treasury yields faded from the wed high at 1.4280. Thursday's London dip held the 50% retracement of that rally at the thu low near 1.4243, and price is now back on the ema20 with RSI(14) at 52, mid-range in a tightening structure.
Support: 1.42555, 1.42432, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42803, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line near 1.4275 and the wed high at 1.4280 breaks the compression and puts the week high at 1.4293 (18-month cap) back in play
Failure to hold the thu low at 1.4243 and the higher-lows line exposes the week low at 1.4205
Holding the ema20 near 1.4256 keeps the mid-range rotation between the thu high at 1.4270 and the thu low intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC today, plus Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
Canada September jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC is the next local test of the 1.42-1.43 range
Lower highs from 1.4293 vs higher lows from 1.4205, tightening range.
From the 1.4249 weekly open, USDCAD spiked to the 1.4293 week high (18-month high) in Monday's Asia session. Supply capped that move, and Tuesday's CAD trade-surplus beat extended a drop into NY to the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's NY rebound on broad USD demand from high Treasury yields stalled at the 1.4280 wed high, and each high since has come in lower while lows have stepped up. Price now coils near the 61.8% retrace of Monday–Tuesday's decline and just above EMA(20) around 1.4259, with RSI(14) flat near 54. Thursday's London-open dip to the 1.4243 thu low was absorbed back above the rising higher-low line.
Support: 1.42432, 1.42382, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42699, 1.42803, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4270 thu high and the lower-high line near 1.4280 (wed high) opens the 1.4293 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4243 thu low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.4238 wed low, then the 1.4205 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fed's Kashkari 14:40 UTC today could break the compression
Canada September jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side test of the 1.42–1.43 range
Contracting range 1.4205–1.4293 with descending highs.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high has been followed by a run of lower highs at 1.4285, 1.4280 and 1.4270, while Tuesday's London-to-NY sell-off after Canada's trade beat bottomed at the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's yield-led NY rally stalled under 1.4280, and the London open drop today took price below EMA(20) at ~1.4254 to sit on EMA(50) and the 50% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday drop near 1.4249, just under the 1.4249 weekly open. RSI(14) near 45 fits a compressing range, with the thu low at 1.4246 the first level being tested.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4254, 1.4270, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4237 swing low (Monday and Wednesday lows) exposes the 1.4205 week low
Close above the lower-high trendline near 1.4270 breaks the descending-highs sequence and reopens the 1.4293 week high
Recovery back above ema20 at ~1.4254 would neutralise the London open drop
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Canada jobs report Fri 12:30 GMT is the next CAD-specific risk to the 1.42–1.43 band
Lower highs from 1.4293 vs higher lows from 1.4205, compressing.
USDCAD spiked from the 1.4249 weekly open to the 1.4293 week high in Monday's Asia session. London then sold it off, and Tuesday's CAD trade-surplus beat extended the drop to the 1.4205 week low by the NY close. Surging Treasury yields drove a Wednesday London-NY transition rally to the 1.4280 Wed high, and the pullback held 1.4238, roughly 55% of that leg, for a higher low. Price is now testing the 1.4270 Asia high, holding above EMA(20) near 1.4255 with RSI(14) around 60. Lower highs at 1.4293, 1.4285 and 1.4280 are squeezing it against the rising higher-lows line.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 Wed high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4249 weekly open and the 1.4238 higher low would return the read to the 1.4205 week low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the compression
Canada Labour Force Survey Fri 12:30 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the range
Contracting range: lower highs from 1.4293, higher lows from 1.4205.
Monday's Asia spike to the 1.4293 week high, the highest since April 2025, failed in London. Tuesday's slide through London and NY into the Canadian trade-surplus beat then took price to 1.4205. Wednesday's NY-session surge in US yields lifted the pair back to the 1.4280 Wed high, and since then H1 has compressed between lower highs and higher lows. Price is holding above the ema20 near 1.4254 and the week open at 1.4249, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and Thursday's Asian range capped at the 1.4268 asia high.
Support: 1.4254, 1.4249, 1.4238
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and re-exposes the 1.4293 week high / 1.4300 cap
Loss of the ema20 and week open at 1.4249 puts the 1.4238 swing low (38.2% of the Monday–Wednesday drop) back in play
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could resolve the compression either way during the London-NY transition
Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5% unemployment) is the next CAD-side test of the 1.42-1.43 range
04:03 UTC
Range-bound, two-way after Monday's spike high · RSI 59 · price 1.42602
Lower highs from Monday's peak, higher lows since Wednesday's low.
Monday's run to the 1.4293 week high faded. Tuesday's CAD trade-surplus beat then drove a slide to the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's rebound on surging US yields and the hawkish FOMC minutes stalled at the 1.4280 wed high, which extends the lower-highs line from Monday's peak. Price is now compressing between the 1.4249 weekly open and the 1.4267 Asia high, above EMA(20), with RSI(14) holding near 59 and higher lows building since the wed pullback low at 1.4238.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42382, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42674, 1.42803, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Loss of the 1.4249 weekly open and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.4238 wed pullback low, near the 50% retrace of the wed impulse
A break of the 1.4205 week low would flip the range to a lower-low sequence
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) today could break the compression
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger CAD-side risk to this range read
1.4205–1.4293 weekly range with descending highs; mid-range consolidation.
USDCAD set the week high at 1.4293 early Monday. It then printed lower highs at 1.4285 Tuesday and 1.4280 Wednesday, where the NY-session rally on surging US yields into the FOMC minutes met rejection. Tuesday's NY slide after Canada's trade surplus left the week low near 1.4205. Wednesday's pullback held the swing low at 1.4238, near the 50–61.8% zone of the Wed rally fib. Price is now compressing between the 1.4250 asia low and 1.4268 asia high, just above EMA(20), with RSI(14) flat near 53 and ATR contracting.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4268, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower highs line and the 1.4280 wed high reopens the 1.4293 week high
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low exposes the 1.4205 week low and the Wed rally fib base
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could break the asia high/asia low compression
Canada Labour Force Survey Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 7K, 6.5%) is the next CAD-side test of the range
1.4205–1.4293 weekly range, descending highs since Monday.
USDCAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4293 range since Monday's Asia spike to the week high. Each push since has stalled lower, at 1.4285 Tuesday, the 1.4280 wed high and the 1.4267 Asia high today, while CAD's trade-surplus beat drove Tuesday's NY-hours drop to the week low. Wednesday's rally on the US yield surge retraced to a swing low at 1.4238, and price now sits on the weekly open at 1.4249, fractionally above a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4267, 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.4293 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4238 swing low opens the week low at 1.4205
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via US yields
Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side test of the range
1.4205–1.4293 weekly range, highs stepping lower since Monday.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 week high faded, and Tuesday's London rally stalled near 1.4285 before NY hours dragged price to the 1.4205 week low. Wednesday's yield-driven rebound ahead of the hawkish FOMC Minutes topped at the 1.4280 wed high. That leaves a lower-highs sequence across the week, while the pullback found demand at the 1.4238 swing low, near the 50–61.8% retracement of Wednesday's impulse. Since the Minutes, price has compressed in a 1.4250–1.4263 band above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 60 and the Asian range now edging to 1.4265.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4238, 1.4205
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4280 wed high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.4293 week high (18-month high) back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4249 weekly open and then the 1.4238 swing low returns price to the lower half of the range toward the 1.4205 week low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could shift yields and this read
Canada jobs data Friday 12:30 UTC is the next CAD-side risk to the range
1.4205–1.4293 weekly range with descending highs; tight consolidation above EMA20 after Wednesday's rebound.
USDCAD has rotated inside a 1.4205–1.4293 range this week. Monday's Asia-session spike set the week high, and Tuesday (1.4285) and Wednesday (1.4280) printed lower highs along a descending line. Tuesday's London-into-NY selloff reached the week low before Wednesday's yields-driven rally peaked at the London-NY transition. The pullback held the Wed low at 1.4238, inside the 50–61.8% zone of that upswing. Since then price has compressed in a narrow band just above EMA20 and the weekly open at 1.4248, with RSI(14) near 61 and little reaction to the hawkish FOMC Minutes.
Support: 1.42485, 1.42382, 1.42046
Resistance: 1.42803, 1.42932
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the Wed high at 1.4280 reopens the 1.4293 week high (18-month high)
Loss of the weekly open / EMA20 confluence at 1.4248 shifts focus back to the Wed low at 1.4238 and the 61.8% of the upswing
Break below the 1.4205 week low would turn the range into a lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC), US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) Thursday could break the compression; Canada jobs data Fri 12:30 UTC