21:06 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 18-month high · RSI 73 · price 1.42582
HH/HL advance from the late-Aug double base; four-session consolidation 1.4205–1.4293.
USD/CAD has built a month-long higher-high/higher-low chain off the 1.3732–1.3760 double base of 21 Aug and 8 Sep. It reclaimed a now-rising EMA(50) (~1.4051) in mid-September as the hawkish Fed narrative and Fed-BoC divergence widened the 2y spread. Price has erased the entire July–August decline but has stalled for four sessions between the 1.4205 swing low and the 1.4293 18m high, sitting just above the june high at 1.4248 with RSI near 73 in overbought territory and ema20 trailing at 1.4131.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4205, 1.4131
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4400
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 1.4293 18m high extends the uptrend and opens the path toward the 1.4400 round number
- A close back below the june high at 1.4248 returns price to the old June–July range
- Failure to hold the 1.4205 swing low, which coincides with the rising trendline from the 8 Sep low, breaks the higher-low chain and exposes ema20 near 1.4131
- The 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct rally fib sits near 1.4079, just above EMA(50); a move into that zone would mark a deeper correction within the uptrend
- Friday's Canada jobs report (f/c 7K, 6.5%) and US UMich inflation expectations could materially shift this read