21:05 UTC
Uptrend, extended near 18-month highs · RSI 71 · price 1.42106
HH/HL chain since Aug 21 low; first pullback below the June high.
A four-week advance began at the Aug 21 swing low at 1.3732. The Sep 8 higher low at 1.3759 completed a double bottom, and a run of higher highs cleared the june high at 1.4248 and printed an 18m high at 1.4293 on Oct 5, as Fed-BoC divergence and the dovish BoC weighed on CAD. Tuesday's bearish session pulled the close back below the june high, leaving price on the 1.4200 round number with RSI easing from overbought. The ema20 near 1.4110 and the rising EMA50 sit well below.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4110, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4293
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the june high at 1.4248 restores the breakout; a close above the 18m high at 1.4293 extends the HH chain
- Daily close below the 1.4200 round number and the ema20 near 1.4110 breaks the rally trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.4079, then 1.4000 psych
- US claims and Fed speakers Thu Oct 8 and Canada jobs Fri Oct 9 could materially shift this read; the digest flags the pair as stretched at 1.42-1.43