USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 5 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Sideways after an early-Monday reversal from highs · RSI 49 · price 1.42601
Range 1.4237–1.4265 since London, higher lows off the double low.
USDCAD reversed from the 1.4293 Monday high through London as the USD lost steam on mixed ISM services data. It has since held a 1.4237–1.4265 range, with a double low at 1.4237 and the rollover low spike to 1.4244 both bought. Early Asia trades just under the range top, which lines up with the 50% fib of the 1.4293 drop, and RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 range top breaks the range and opens the path to the 1.4293 Monday high
Failure at the range top again keeps 1.4244 rollover low and rising lows support in focus
Loss of the 1.4237 double low marks a lower low toward 1.4221
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) Tue could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Sideways after Monday fade, recovering off lows · RSI 48 · price 1.42584
Range 1.4237–1.4263, double low at base, top capped three times.
Monday's Asia push tagged the 1.4293 monday high before a fade, aided by USD losing steam on the mixed ISM services print, broke the Asian low and set a 1.4237 double low across London and NY. The recovery has stalled three times at the 1.4263 range top, near the 50% fib of the drop, and price is idling on the 38.2% around 1.4259 in thin early Asia trade with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top confirms the double low and opens the 1.4293 monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 swing low puts the 1.4237 double low back in play
Fed's Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI later Tuesday could shift this read
23:17 UTC
Recovering off twin lows, capped near 1.4263 · RSI 54 · price 1.42599
Double bottom at 1.4237, higher low at 1.4244, testing NY high.
USDCAD faded Monday's 1.4293 day high to 1.4237 in London. The NY retest after the soft ISM services print held the same twin lows, and the rollover dip to 1.4244 left a higher low. In early Asia session price sits at the fib 38.2 near 1.4260, pressing the 1.4263 NY high, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.4257, 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4272, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 NY high opens the fib 61.8 at 1.4272
Loss of ema20 near 1.4257 and the 1.4244 rollover low breaks the higher lows line
Break below the 1.4237 twin lows invalidates the double bottom read
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue could shift the read beyond the Asia session
23:03 UTC
Range after Asia-to-London selloff, rebounding · RSI 55 · price 1.42597
1.4237–1.4265 range since London, price near range top.
USDCAD faded the 1.4293 Monday high (highest since April 2025) through London to 1.4237 as USD lost steam on the mixed ISM Services print. NY retested 1.4237 for a double low, and price has held a 1.4237–1.4265 range since. Early Asia has it back near the range top, where the 50% retrace of the 1.4293–1.4237 drop sits.
Support: 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 range top completes the double low and opens 1.4293 monday high
Slip back below 1.4244 rollover low returns price to mid-range; a break of 1.4237 double low resumes the London leg lower
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) Tuesday could shift this range read
22:46 UTC
Range after Asian-high fade · RSI 54 · price 1.42572
Double bottom at 1.4237, range 1.4237–1.4263 since mid-London.
USDCAD was rejected at the 1.4293 Asian high and faded through London as the USD lost steam on mixed US services PMIs, printing a double bottom at 1.4237 on the London and NY lows. Price has since held a 1.4237–1.4263 range, with the range top sitting just under the 50% fib of the fade. It is now mid-range at 1.4257 in thin early-Asia trade after a rollover dip to 1.4244.
Support: 1.42439, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42631, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4263 range top breaks the range and the 50% fib, opening the path back to the 1.4293 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4244 rollover low exposes the 1.4237 double bottom
M15 close below the 1.4237 double bottom confirms a lower low after the Asian-high fade
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Sideways after reversal from the Asian high · RSI 48 · price 1.42552
1.4237–1.4265 range below the 1.4293 day high, flat lower highs at the range top.
USD/CAD faded the 1.4293 day high from the Asia session. London sold it to 1.4237, and the post-ISM dip in NY printed a matching double low there as the USD lost steam on mixed services data. Since then rebounds have stalled three times at the 1.4265 range top, near the 50% fib of the selloff, and price is pinned at flat EMAs early in the Asia session with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top breaks the range and opens the 1.4293 day high
Failure to hold the 1.4248 late low exposes the 1.4237 double low; a break there confirms a lower-low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) Tuesday could shift this read
22:17 UTC
Range after Asia-to-London selloff, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 1.42547
Equal lows at 1.4237 holding; lower highs capped at 1.4263 range top.
The 1.4293 asia high faded through London to 1.4237. Those equal lows were retested to the pip after the mixed ISM services print and held; since then the pair has ranged below the 1.4263 range top, just under the 50% asia fib. A rollover spike to 1.4244 was absorbed, and price sits at 1.4255 on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 48. No setup is in play.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top clears the 50% asia fib and puts 1.4293 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.4248 late low exposes the 1.4237 equal lows; a break there extends the London lower-low sequence
Thin post-NY liquidity into the Asia session; next scheduled catalysts are Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC)
22:03 UTC
Sideways after London sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 1.42561
Range 1.4237–1.4265 since London, session low held twice.
The Asia rally topped at the 1.4293 Monday high, then the London drop took price to 1.4237 as USD lost steam on mixed ISM data. The session low held twice, at 09:00 and 15:00 UTC, forming a possible double bottom. Price has since ranged below the 1.4264 range top, which sits near the 50% retrace. The post-rollover dip held the 1.4248 rollover low and price is back mid-range on flat EMAs, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4264 range top completes the double bottom and opens the path to the 1.4293 monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4248 rollover low exposes the 1.4237 session low; a break there ends the range read
Thin Asia session after rollover; Tue ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Ivey PMI 14:00 UTC could shift the read
21:46 UTC
Sideways after Asia spike and London reversal · RSI 42 · price 1.42514
Range 1.4237–1.4263 below the 1.4293 Asia high.
Asia ran USDCAD to 1.4293, the asia high and its highest since April 2025. London then reversed it to 1.4237 as the USD lost steam on the mixed ISM services print. NY retested 1.4237 and held, leaving a double bot, but the bounce met rejection at the 1.4263 ny high near the 50% fib, and price now sits mid-range at 1.4251 after a thin rollover low spike to 1.4244.
Support: 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 ny high clears the double bot neckline and the 50% fib, opening a retest of the 1.4293 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4237 double bot breaks the range lower, with 1.4221 the next support cited in the digest
Rollover low at 1.4244 printed on thin liquidity; a repeat probe early in the Asia session tests how firm the range floor is
Tue ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman remarks can shift USD pricing and this range read
21:31 UTC
Range after Monday sell-off, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 1.42501
1.4237–1.4265 range with flat tops near the 50% fib of the drop.
USDCAD faded the 1.4293 Monday high from early Asia and fell to 1.4237 in London as the USD lost steam. NY retested that double low after the mixed ISM print, then held a 1.4237–1.4265 range with the range top capped near the 50% fib of the drop. In early Tuesday Asia, a rollover dip to the 1.4244 rollover low was absorbed; price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4244, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 double low breaks the range and exposes 1.4221 support
M15 close above the 1.4263 range top and 50% fib reopens the 1.4293 monday high
Failure to hold the 1.4244 rollover low keeps the lower half of the range in play
Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC) and Williams/Bowman Fed-speak could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Range after Asia spike faded · RSI 44 · price 1.42554
Double low at 1.4237, range capped near 1.4265.
USDCAD tagged the 1.4293 asia high before London unwound the move to 1.4237. NY retested that double low after the mixed ISM services print and it held. Price has since rotated between a 1.4252 higher low and the 1.4265 range top into the NY close, with the cap sitting at the 50% asia-high fib retrace and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top (50% asia-high fib) confirms the double bottom and opens 1.4293 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4252 higher low reopens the 1.4237 double low
Thin post-NY-close liquidity; Fed's Williams/Bowman and Ivey PMI on Tuesday could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4237, late NY range capped at 1.4265.
The Asia rally to the 1.4293 day high reversed through London. The 1.4237 low held twice, the second time after the ISM services miss knocked price off 1.4265, forming a double low. Late NY has compressed into a 1.4252–1.4265 band, with the range top sitting at the 50% fib of the day's drop and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top (50% fib) completes the double bottom and opens the path back toward the 1.4293 day high
Loss of the 1.4252 late NY low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 1.4237 double low
Fed's Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI on Tue (13:05–14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Recovering from 1.4237 low, capped at 1.4263 · RSI 59 · price 1.42618
Higher lows under a flat 1.4263 range cap, inside the Asian range.
USD/CAD faded the 1.4293 Asia high, its highest since April 2025, through London and NY, then printed a double bottom at 1.4237 as the dollar lost steam on the mixed ISM services print. Late NY shows higher lows into a flat 1.4263 range cap, near the 50% retrace of the Asia high move.
Support: 1.42523, 1.42462, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.4263, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4263 range cap opens the path back toward the 1.4293 asia high
Break of the 1.4252 higher low and rising trendline puts the 1.4246 asia low and 1.4237 double bottom back in play
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue, plus Canada Ivey PMI at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read
20:16 UTC
Recovering after London sell-off, testing range top · RSI 60 · price 1.42621
Double low at 1.4237, higher lows into 1.4265 NY high.
The Asia rally to 1.4293 (asia high) reversed through London. 1.4237 held twice, in London and on the post-ISM NY dip, as USD lost steam on the mixed services data, forming a double low. Price has since printed higher lows along rising support and is pressing the 1.4265 NY high, which sits at the 50% retrace of the 1.4293–1.4237 drop, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ny high clears the 50% retrace and exposes the 1.4293 asia high
Loss of rising support and the 1.4252 higher low returns focus to the 1.4237 double low
Fed Williams/Bowman and Ivey PMI on Tue could shift the read once London and NY reopen
20:03 UTC
Asia spike reversed, base forming · RSI 56 · price 1.42587
Double low at 1.4237, coiling below NY high.
The Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 asia high unwound through London. The mixed ISM services read then produced a 14:00 UTC pop to 1.4265 and a flush back to the 1.4237 double low (09:00 and 15:00 UTC). Late NY, price sits on the 38.2% fib of the drop near 1.4259, coiling between the 1.4265 ny high and the 1.4252 swing low on a line of rising lows. Price is fractionally above flat EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ny high (≈50% fib) completes the double low and opens 1.4293 asia high
Break of the 1.4252 swing low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 1.4237 double low
Failure at the 1.4237 double low resumes the London down-leg
Fed Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI on Tue are the next catalysts for USD and CAD
19:46 UTC
Sideways after an Asia spike and London reversal · RSI 52 · price 1.42558
Range 1.4237–1.4265 after double bottom; lower highs capping.
Asia ran to a 1.4293 session high before London reversed it through the 1.4246 Asian low. Demand stepped in twice at 1.4237, forming a double bottom, as USD faded on the mixed ISM services read. Late in the NY session price sits mid-range near the 38.2% retracement, with RSI flat at 52 and price pinned to flat EMAs.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.4265 range top (50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.4293 session high back in view
A close below the 1.4237 double btm confirms a lower low beneath the Asian low
Fed Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.4237, tight range 1.4252–1.4265.
The Asia session ran to a 1.4293 session high before London broke the 1.4246 Asian low. The drop printed a double bottom at the 1.4237 session low (09:00 and 15:00 UTC), the second leg coming as USD lost steam on the ISM services miss. Late NY session price is compressing in a 1.4252 range low to 1.4265 band, with highs capped at the 50% fib of the 1.4293–1.4237 drop and price sitting on EMA20/EMA50, RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 50% fib breaks the range and opens the 1.4293 session high
Break of the 1.4252 range low puts the 1.4246 Asian low and 1.4237 session low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4237 double bottom confirms a lower-low on the session
Thin post-NY / Asia session trade likely keeps the range intact; Fed Williams and Bowman on Tuesday are the next USD-side risk
19:16 UTC
Range after Asia spike reversed · RSI 55 · price 1.42561
Range 1.4237–1.4265, lower highs, flat lows.
The Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 Asia high fully reversed through London. NY retested the 1.4237 double low after the soft ISM print, and price has since ranged below a 1.4265 range top. Lower highs are capping at the 38.2–50% fib, while late-NY price sits at 1.4256, flat on its EMAs. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 range top breaks the lower-highs line and the 50% fib, exposing the 1.4293 Asia high
Loss of the 1.4250 round number puts the 1.4237 double low back in play; a close below it confirms a lower low
Fed's Williams and Bowman Tue, then Ivey PMI Tue 14:00 UTC, could break the range
Thin post-NY and rollover liquidity may produce spiky wicks around range edges
19:03 UTC
Sideways after Asia spike reversed · RSI 60 · price 1.4257
Range 1.4237–1.4265 since London, higher lows off the NY low.
The Asia-session spike to the 1.4293 asia high reversed through London to 1.4237. NY retested that level after the mixed ISM Services print and it held, leaving a double low, with higher lows since. Price sits mid-range in late NY near flat EMAs, below the 1.4265 range top, which lines up with the 50% fib of the drop.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top confirms the double low and opens the 1.4293 asia high
Break of the 1.4253 swing low and the rising lows line puts the 1.4237 double low back in play
Ivey PMI and Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Range after London selloff, NY recovering · RSI 59 · price 1.42581
1.4237–1.4265 range since London; higher lows off NY double low.
The Asia rally to 1.4293 reversed through London to 1.4237 as USD lost steam, and the post-ISM spike faded back to the same double low at 1.4237 in NY. Late-NY price at 1.4258 sits on the 38.2% fib with higher lows above the 1.4253 ny pivot, still capped below the 1.4265 range top.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 range top breaks the range and opens the 50%+ retrace toward the 1.4293 asia high
Loss of the 1.4253 ny pivot breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.4237 double low back in play
Quiet close into Asia session likely; Tue ADP and Williams/Bowman Fedspeak are the next scheduled USD risk
18:31 UTC
Sideways after London reversal, higher lows into late NY · RSI 59 · price 1.42584
Double bottom at 1.4237, higher lows capped below 1.4265 range top.
Asia ran to a 1.4293 session high, which drew a rejection and a London reversal to the 1.4237 session low as the USD lost steam on the mixed ISM services print. NY retested 1.4237 and held, forming a double bottom. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib retrace of the Asia high drop, printing rising lows from 1.4252 into a 1.4265 range top that also marks the 50% retrace.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top (50% fib) confirms the double bottom and reopens the 1.4293 session high
Break of the rising lows at 1.4252 returns focus to the 1.4237 session low; a close below it invalidates the double bottom
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Post-selloff range, recovering off the lows · RSI 57 · price 1.42597
Double low at 1.4237, higher lows into the 1.4265 range top.
The Asia rally to the 1.4293 Asian high reversed through London, broke the 1.4246 Asian low and found a floor at 1.4237. NY retested that level after the mixed ISM Services print and held it, forming a double low. Late in the NY session price sits near 1.4260, at the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high fib and just below the 1.4265 range top.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top completes the double low and opens the path to the 1.4293 Asian high.
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.4246 Asian low puts the 1.4237 double low back in play.
Ivey PMI and remarks from Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue could materially shift this read.
18:03 UTC
Sideways after Asian spike reversed · RSI 53 · price 1.42564
1.4237–1.4265 range in late NY, double bottom below, lower highs above.
The Asian-session spike to 1.4293 was sold through London to 1.4237. The post-ISM drop then retested that London low in NY and held, leaving a double bottom. Price is now mid-range near 1.4256 below the 1.4265 range top, which is also the 50% fib of the Asian-high-to-London-low decline, after the ISM services miss took some steam out of USD.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.4293 Asian high
Loss of the 1.4237 London low negates the double bottom and resumes the London-session decline
Holding the 1.4250 round number keeps price in the upper half of the range into the Asian session
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (Tue 14:00 UTC) are the next scheduled risks to this read
Double bottom at 1.4237 with rising lows since; price pressing the 1.4261–1.4265 lower-high cap.
Asia ran to the 1.4293 asia high before London unwound the move to the 1.4237 session low. That low held again after the mixed ISM services print, when the USD lost steam. The double bottom has since lifted price back to the ny high at 1.4265, which lines up with the 50% fib of the day's decline. RSI(14) is near 56 and ATR(14) about 6 pips, so intraday swings are compact.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 ny high clears the 50% fib and the double-bottom neckline, opening the path toward the 1.4293 asia high
Break of the rising low at 1.4252 and its trendline returns price to the lower half of the range
Failure to hold the 1.4237 session low invalidates the double-bottom read
No scheduled USD/CAD data in the next 8h. Per the digest, WTI and US yields are the drivers to monitor into the Asia session
17:32 UTC
Range after London selloff, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 1.42561
Lower highs from Asia peak; double low at 1.4237 inside 1.4237–1.4265 range.
The Asia rally to the 1.4293 asia high reversed through London to 1.4237. NY was rejected at the 1.4265 ny high (50% fib) after the ISM Services miss, then retested 1.4237 at 15:00 UTC, leaving a double low. After London close, price is compressing at 1.4256, just above the ema20 at 1.4253 and the flat EMA50, still under the lower highs line.
Support: 1.4253, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ny high breaks the lower highs line and completes the double low
Failure to hold the 1.4237 double low resumes the London leg lower
Acceptance below the ema20 at 1.4253 shifts focus back to the range floor
Quiet calendar for the rest of NY; Fed's Williams Tue 13:05 UTC is the next scheduled risk
Range 1.4237–1.4265 since London, double low at base.
USD/CAD faded from the 1.4293 asian high, and London broke the 1.4246 asian low into 1.4237. The mixed US ISM services print at 14:00 UTC saw NY reject 1.4265, the ism high and 50% fib. A second test of 1.4237 held to form a double low, and price has since reclaimed the asian low and both EMAs after London close, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.4252, 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ism high (50% fib) confirms the double low and opens the 1.4293 asian high
Loss of the 1.4252 higher low turns the asian low reclaim into a range retest toward the 1.4237 double low
Break below the 1.4237 double low resumes the London downtrend
Ivey PMI and Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue are the next scheduled catalysts for this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, basing near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.42533
Lower highs since 1.4293; twin lows at 1.4237 forming a 1.4237–1.4265 range.
The Asia-session push to the 1.4293 Asian high on soft crude faded through London to 1.4237. NY rallied into the 1.4265 NY high at the 50% fib after the ISM Services miss, was rejected, and set twin lows at 1.4237. After London close, price is rotating mid-range at 1.4253 with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.4243, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.4243 ny base reopens the 1.4237 twin lows; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
A hold above the 1.4257 late high puts the 1.4265 ny high and 50% fib back in play
A clean break of the lower-highs trendline above 1.4265 targets a retest of the 1.4293 asian high
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) on Tue could reset the range
16:32 UTC
Intraday down from Asia high, basing above lows · RSI 52 · price 1.42552
1.4237–1.4265 range since London, double bottom at range floor.
Asia ran to the 1.4293 Asia high on softer oil before London unwound the move to 1.4237. NY retested that low after mixed ISM data and held, leaving a double bottom. Price is back near 1.4255 after London close, sitting inside a range topped by the 1.4265 NY high, which lines up with the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia-London drop.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 NY high clears the fib zone and opens the 1.4293 Asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4250 round number puts the 1.4237 double bottom back in play
Break below 1.4237 invalidates the double bottom and resumes the London-session lower-low sequence
Calendar is quiet into Asia; Tuesday's Fed speakers and Ivey PMI are the next catalysts
16:17 UTC
Down from Asia high, basing near lows · RSI 52 · price 1.42541
Lower highs off 1.4293, double bottom at 1.4237.
The Asia session rally to the 1.4293 asia high fully unwound through London. Softer oil had lifted the pair early, but the USD lost steam on mixed ISM data. Lows at 1.4237 printed in the London morning and again after the ISM release, forming a double btm, and the last bar reclaimed the asian low at 1.4246. Price is now mid-range below the 1.4265 ny high, which sits near the 50% fib of the day's drop and caps the lower highs.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ny high (50% fib) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Slipping back under the 1.4246 asian low puts the 1.4237 double btm back in play; a break there confirms a lower low
Tue Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC) and Williams/Bowman Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
16:02 UTC
Down from Asian high, basing at session low · RSI 43 · price 1.42457
Lower highs off 1.4293, range 1.4237–1.4265 since London.
The Asia-session rally to the 1.4293 asian high gave way in London as the USD bid faded. The 1.4237 session low held twice, in London and again in the NY session. The pop on the in-line ISM Services print stalled at the 1.4265 ny high, near the 50% fib of the asian high-london low drop, keeping price below both EMAs and inside the range.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 session low breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower low, exposing the 1.4221 area and the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4265 ny high and the lower-highs line invalidates the range read and reopens the 1.4293 asian high
Fed's Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI on Tuesday could shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, flattening into range · RSI 41 · price 1.4244
Lower highs from 1.4293; equal lows at 1.4237 forming a 1.4237–1.4265 range.
USDCAD reversed from the 1.4293 Asia session high and slid through London to 1.4237 as broad USD momentum faded. The in-line ISM print produced a spike to the 1.4265 range top, which is also the 50% fib of the session drop, before it was sold straight back to retest the session low. Lower highs are capping the bounces, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 session low breaks the range and exposes the 1.4200 round number
Close above the 1.4265 range top (50% fib) clears the lower highs line and reopens 1.4293 session high
Fed's Williams and Bowman speak Tue; their hike-timing tone could shift USD intraday
15:31 UTC
Intraday down from Asian high, now ranging · RSI 42 · price 1.42473
Range 1.4237–1.4265 after Asian rally fully retraced in London.
The Asian rally to the 1.4293 asian high, helped by weaker oil, unwound through London to 1.4237, and the pair has ranged 1.4237–1.4265 since. The in-line ISM Services print produced an ISM spike to 1.4265, near the 50% retrace of that drop, which was rejected back to a second test of 1.4237 (tentative double bottom), with RSI(14) near 42 into the late NY session.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4220
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 double bottom breaks the range and exposes the 1.4220 psych area
M15 close above the 1.4265 ISM spike reopens the 1.4293 asian high
Fed's Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI on Tuesday could shift the read; thin liquidity after NY close
15:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, ranging off day low · RSI 40 · price 1.42473
Lower highs from Asia peak; 1.4237–1.4265 range since London.
The Asia session high at 1.4293 stalled short of 1.4300, and London unwound the move to a 1.4237 day low as broad USD momentum faded. The mixed ISM print (54.9, prices paid 74) spiked price to 1.4265, near the 50% fib of the Asia high-low move. The pair was rejected there and is back on the friday low at 1.4247, after retesting the day low and printing lower highs below the ema20 at 1.4254.
Support: 1.42473, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.4254, 1.42649, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4237 day low confirms a lower low and exposes the cited 1.4221/1.4200 area
Close back above the 1.4265 ism high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the range-top read
Reclaim of the 1.4254 ema20 needed to neutralise the post-ISM rejection; the asia high at 1.4293 caps the upside structure
Fed's Williams and Bowman Tue, plus Canada Ivey PMI (14:00 UTC), could shift the read
15:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off Asia peak · RSI 34 · price 1.42425
Asia rally fully retraced; NY retest of London low after post-ISM rejection.
The Asia session rally to the 1.4293 asia high fully unwound in London to 1.4237, and the NY rebound stalled at 1.4265, the 50% fib of that drop. The post-ISM spike (headline 54.9 soft, prices paid 74 firm) was rejected and price broke the 1.4248 range floor back to the london low, RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4248, 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4237 london low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.4200 round number in view
Reclaim of the 1.4248 range floor returns price to the NY range, with the 1.4265 ism high capping
A break of the descending trendline from the asia high would negate the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams/Bowman and Canada Ivey PMI on Tuesday are the next event risk for this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday downleg from Asia high, now basing · RSI 46 · price 1.42531
Higher lows off London low, capped near 50% fib.
Asia ran to the 1.4293 asia high before London unwound the leg as broad USD momentum faded. London briefly broke below the Asian low to the 1.4237 london low, then reclaimed it. Since then a higher low at 1.4248 and the ISM spike to the 1.4265 ism high, which sits at the 50% fib, have boxed price into a 1.4248–1.4265 range, with the mixed print (soft headline, prices paid 74) producing a two-way whip rather than direction.
Support: 1.42475, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42718, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ism high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4272, then the 1.4293 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.4248 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.4237 london low
No scheduled data in the next 8h. Post-ISM USD drift and WTI direction are the swing factors for this range
14:32 UTC
Neutral after Asia spike unwound, higher lows forming · RSI 50 · price 1.42558
Compression under 1.4265 with higher lows off the London low.
Asia ran to the 1.4293 asia high before London unwound the move, briefly dipping through the Asian low to the 1.4237 london low as the USD rally faded ahead of ISM. Since then rising lows have compressed price under the 1.4265 ny high, which is also the 50% retracement of the asia high–london low drop. The ISM bar spiked both ways without follow-through, and price is pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ny high / 50% retracement breaks the compression and opens the 1.4293 asia high
Loss of the 1.4248 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 1.4237 london low back in play
ISM Services actual (not yet in feed) and Prices Paid vs 72.6 could still set the next leg; Fed's Williams Tue 13:05 UTC follows
14:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, now basing · RSI 53 · price 1.42571
Higher lows off London low, capped at NY high.
The Asia rally to the asia high at 1.4293 unwound through London to a london low at 1.4237 as USD momentum faded ahead of ISM. NY has held higher lows from the ny low at 1.4248, but the ISM bar wicked both ways and saw rejection at the ny high at 1.4265, the 50% level of the asia-london fib.
Support: 1.42475, 1.42372, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.42649, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4265 ny high and 50% fib reopens the asia high at 1.4293
Break of the 1.4248 ny low ends the rising lows; london low at 1.4237 is next
Loss of 1.4237 exposes the friday low at 1.4224
ISM Services result not yet in the data; follow-through from the 14:00 UTC print could shift this read
Canada Ivey PMI and Fed's Williams/Bowman on Tue are the next scheduled risks
14:03 UTC
Intraday recovery off the London low, stalling under range top · RSI 56 · price 1.42574
Higher lows since the 1.4237 London low, flat cap at 1.4262; NY range compressing.
The Asian session rally to the 1.4293 asian high reversed in London to a 1.4237 london low as broad USD momentum faded. NY has since compressed into a 1.4248–1.4262 range: the range top has been rejected three times near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop, while higher lows build along a rising trendline into the ISM Services release.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4293
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) lands on the current bar and is the immediate catalyst for the 1.4248–1.4262 range
An M15 close above the 1.4262 range top opens the path toward the 1.4293 asian high
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.4248 range low exposes the 1.4237 london low, then the 1.4224 friday low
Asia high 1.4293 sold to London low 1.4237; now 1.4248–1.4262 range with a higher low.
Asia ran to 1.4293 before London unwound the move to 1.4237 as the broad USD rally lost steam into ISM. Price has since printed a higher low at 1.4248 on a rising line and is pressing the 1.4262 intraday cap, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asia high to London low drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is sitting on the EMA50.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4293
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4262 intraday cap clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 50% at 1.4265, then the 1.4293 Asia high
Break of the 1.4248 higher low and the rising line exposes the 1.4237 London low and the 1.4223 Friday low
13:16 UTC
Pullback within London downswing, stabilising · RSI 55 · price 1.42536
Lower high off Asian high; higher low at 1.4248 into NY.
London session broke the Asian range lower from the 1.4293 asian high to a 1.4237 london low as the USD bid faded into ISM. The rebound stalled at the 1.4261 swing high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop. Price is now compressing above a 1.4248 higher low ahead of the NY open, with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 1.42475, 1.42372, 1.42227
Resistance: 1.42613, 1.42932
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A soft print puts the 1.4237 london low and 1.4223 friday low in focus.
An M15 close above the 1.4261 swing high opens the 50–61.8% fib zone up to 1.4272, with the 1.4293 asian high above that.
A break of the 1.4248 higher low and the rising higher low line returns structure to the London downswing.
Lower high 1.4261 under Asia high 1.4293; higher low forming at 1.4248.
London unwound the Asia-session push to the 1.4293 asia high as USD lost steam ahead of ISM. That leg printed a london low at 1.4237, and the bounce stalled at the 1.4261 lower high, just shy of the 50% fib. Early NY is compressing between that lower high and a higher low at 1.4248, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.4248, 1.4237, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4278, 1.4293
What it said to watch
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.4261 lower high reopens the 1.4278 asia shelf
Loss of the 1.4248 higher low exposes the 1.4237 london low, then the 1.4223 friday low
Lower high 1.4261 vs 1.4293 peak; higher low 1.4249 above 1.4237 London low.
The Asian push to 1.4293, a fresh high since April 2025 on softer oil, was fully reversed in London, which slid to a 1.4237 london low. The bounce stalled at the 1.4261 rebound high, just above the 38.2% fib. Price is holding a 1.4249 higher low below EMA20 into the early NY session.
Support: 1.4249, 1.4237, 1.4216
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4272, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.4272
Failure to hold the 1.4249 higher low exposes the 1.4237 london low, then the 1.4216 friday low
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.4293 asian high negates the false break read
The oil-driven Asian session push to the 1.4293 asian high was unwound through London. A sweep below the asian low reached 1.4237 (london low), and the rebound was rejected at 1.4261, Friday's prior high and just past the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price is back at 1.4250 below the ema20 into the London-NY transition, with a lower high in place.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 prior high reopens the 50% fib at 1.4265 and the 1.4293 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.4246 asian low exposes the 1.4237 london low
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Lower high trendline from 1.4293 caps price unless broken on a closing basis
11:46 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since London low · RSI 58 · price 1.42602
Asian rally fully reversed in London; higher-low rebound now back at Friday high.
Asia carried USDCAD to an asian high at 1.4293 on the softer-oil theme, but London unwound the whole move to a 1.4237 london low by 09:00 UTC. A higher-low rebound has since retraced to the friday high at 1.4261, just under the 50% fib at 1.4265, heading into the NY open.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.42613, 1.42652, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 1.4265 reopens the 1.4293 asian high
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 1.4250 asian base puts the 1.4237 london low back in play
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday pullback recovering, higher lows off London low · RSI 54 · price 1.4257
Asian high 1.4293 rejected; London low 1.4237 below Asian low reclaimed.
Asia ground up to a session high at 1.4293 on softer oil, then London sold the pair 56 pips to 1.4237, a brief false break of the Asian low. A higher-low sequence since has lifted price back to the 38.2% retracement and Friday's high near 1.4260. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4237
Resistance: 1.4260, 1.4265, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4265 (50% fib) puts the asian high at 1.4293 back in view
Loss of 1.4250 breaks the higher-low line, exposing the 1.4237 london low
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asia high, now bouncing · RSI 49 · price 1.42557
Lower highs from 1.4293, higher lows since London low at 1.4237.
Asia ran to a 1.4293 high, the asian high, as WTI slid. London then unwound the move as the dollar eased off its peak, breaking the asian low at 1.4246 down to a london low at 1.4237 before reclaiming it. Price is now pressing ema20 near 1.4255 on a run of higher lows, about a 33% retrace of the London drop fib, with the friday high at 1.4261 directly above.
Support: 1.42462, 1.42372
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4261 friday high puts the 50% London drop fib at 1.4265, then the 1.4293 asian high, in play
Loss of the 1.4246 asian low voids the false-break read and re-exposes the 1.4237 london low
A break of the higher lows trendline returns structure to lower highs and lower lows
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows from the 1.4293 Asia high; tight 1.4244–1.4249 pause at the Asian low.
Asia ran USD/CAD to a 1.4293 high, the fresh peak the digest ties to softer oil, but London unwound the whole move and broke the Asian low to a 1.4237 London low. Price now sits back on the 1.4246 Asian low, capped near the 23.6% fib at 1.4250, with RSI(14) ~38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4237, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4261, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4237 London low exposes the 1.4223 Friday base
M15 close above the 1.4249 bounce high and 23.6% fib opens a retest of the 1.4261 Friday high
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since 1.4293 Asian high; Asian range low broken.
USD/CAD peaked at 1.4293, the Asian high, then fell through London to a 1.4237 London low. That move broke the Asian range low and Friday's close, even with the broader USD bid, and RSI(14) sits near 33. The rebound stalled at the 1.4249 bounce high, just under the 23.6% retracement of the London selloff, and price is now consolidating back at the Asian open area.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4259, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4259, where the 38.2% fib of the London selloff overlaps Friday's high zone, invalidates the London downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.4237 London low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.4221 cited support and then the 1.4201 nfp low
Reclaim of the 1.4293 Asian high would mark the selloff as a full false break of the range
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) in early NY could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, small bounce off lows · RSI 32 · price 1.42465
Lower highs and lows since the 1.4293 Asia high; London broke below the Asian range.
The Asia push above the Friday high to 1.4293 failed in London, with a 56-pip slide through the Sunday open to a 1.4237 session low. That runs against the digest's oil-driven CAD weakness. The rebound is stalling at the 1.4249 bounce high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) lifting off the low 30s.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4222
Resistance: 1.4249, 1.4260, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Failure at the 1.4249 bounce high and a break of the 1.4237 session low extend the lower-low chain toward the 1.4222 post-nfp low
An M15 close above 1.4260, the friday high and near the 38.2% of the london selloff fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read early in the NY session
Reclaiming the 1.4293 asia high would negate the false-break read
09:46 UTC
Downtrend since Asia high, early bounce · RSI 33 · price 1.42488
Asia rally fully reversed in London; lower highs from 1.4293 to a 1.4237 low.
Firm-USD and soft-oil flows lifted the pair to an Asia high at 1.4293. London rejected it and erased the whole Asia leg, falling to a 1.4237 london low with RSI(14) near 30. Price is now bouncing to 1.4249, below a friday high at 1.4261 that sits close to the 38.2% fib retracement of the drop.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4223
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4270, 1.4293
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, with S&P PMI at 13:45, could materially shift this read during NY hours
A break of the 1.4237 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.4223 post-nfp low
An M15 close above the 1.4261 friday high / 38.2% fib opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.4270 london pivot
The 1.4293 asia high remains the swing cap; price below it keeps the London reversal structure intact
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range broken to the downside.
The Asia-session push to the 1.4293 asian high reversed from 04:30 UTC. London then extended a chain of lower highs through the 1.4246 asian low to a 1.4237 session low, giving back the weekly-open USD bid. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, and Friday's NY low at 1.4224 is the next shelf below.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4259, 1.4293
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 1.4246 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4237 session low exposes the 1.4224 fri ny low, then the 1.4201 nfp low from Friday's payrolls spike
A close above the lower highs trendline and the fib 38.2 at 1.4259 eases the downtrend read; 1.4293 asian high caps above
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 17 · price 1.42391
Lower highs and lower lows since 04:15 UTC; Asian range low broken.
The Asian session rally to the 1.4293 asian high fully unwound through the London open. A chain of lower highs took price through the 1.4246 asian low and back into Friday's post-NFP range at 1.4239. RSI(14) near 17 shows the slide is stretched, with the 1.4237 session low the immediate test.
Support: 1.42372, 1.4222, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42462, 1.4261, 1.42932
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4237 session low exposes the 1.4222 friday low, then the 1.4201 nfp low
An M15 close back above the 1.4246 asian low challenges the lower-high line; the 1.4261 friday high sits above
US S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) during the NY session could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into the London session · RSI 21 · price 1.42448
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.4293 Asia high; weekly open lost.
London unwound the full Asian-session climb to the 1.4293 asia high, cutting through the 1.4249 weekly open to a 1.4243 session low despite the firm USD backdrop in the digest. The lower-high trendline is intact and RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, with the post-nfp low at 1.4223 the next shelf below.
Support: 1.42426, 1.42227, 1.42014
Resistance: 1.42485, 1.4261, 1.42932
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4243 session low exposes the 1.4223 post-nfp low, then the 1.4201 nfp low
An M15 close back above the 1.4249 weekly open and the lower-high trendline eases the downtrend read; the 1.4261 friday high caps above that
The 38.2% fib of the asia high-to-session low drop sits near 1.4262, overlapping the friday high
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.4293 Asian high; full retrace of the Asian leg.
Asia ran USDCAD from the 1.4246 weekly open to a 1.4293 Asian high on the broad USD bid. A rejection there turned into a London-session sell-off that has retraced almost the whole Asian rally on a chain of lower highs. Price sits at 1.4252 with RSI(14) near 21 oversold, and the 1.4261 prior high (Friday's top, retested at 07:45 UTC) now caps it.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4272, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4246 weekly open puts price under the Asian range and exposes the 1.4224 swing low from Friday's post-NFP trade
Reclaim of the 1.4261 prior high and the lower-high trendline toward the 1.4272 swing high neutralises the London downtrend read
1.4293 Asian high remains the session ceiling
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Lower highs through London, Asian rally fully retraced.
The London session unwound the Asian rally to the 1.4293 Asian high, the safe-haven USD push it rode now faded. A chain of lower highs, the latest a lower high at 1.4270, has taken price back below the 1.4262 prior high and onto the 1.4250 Friday floor, with RSI(14) near 22.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42462, 1.4222
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4270, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4262 prior high negates the false break read
Break of the 1.4246 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.4222 post-NFP low
Reclaim of the 1.4270 lower high would break the London sequence of lower highs
US S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asian high · RSI 28 · price 1.42599
Lower highs and lower lows since 04:15 UTC; London open pushed price back below the 1.4262 prior high, still inside the Asian range.
The London open extended the pullback from the 1.4293 Asian high, retracing about 78.6% of the Asian rally to a 1.4256 London low. Price is back under the 1.4262 prior high as the haven-driven USD bid from Asia fades. RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.42557, 1.42462
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.42701, 1.42932
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4262 prior high and the 1.4270 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.4256 London low exposes the 1.4246 Asian low and a full retrace of the Asian rally
Price is below the descending trendline from the 1.4293 Asian high; a break above it challenges the downtrend read
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC, preceded by S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, short-term down · RSI 34 · price 1.42572
Lower highs since the 1.4293 asian high, retesting the friday high.
Asia lifted USDCAD from the 1.4246 asian low to a 1.4293 asian high, clearing the 1.4261 friday high on haven USD demand and softer oil. The London open drove a rejection from that high, and price now sits back around the friday high near the 78.6% retrace of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.4250, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4282, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4250 round number and the 1.4246 asian low would turn the Asia push above the friday high into a false break
A reclaim of the 1.4282 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the 1.4293 asian high
Holding the 1.4261 friday high area as support keeps the Asia breakout retest intact
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Asia uptrend, London pullback in progress · RSI 37 · price 1.42684
Breakout above Friday high, now retesting it with lower highs.
The Asia session broke above Friday's 1.4261 high to an Asian high at 1.4293 on haven USD demand. The London open then pulled back to a 1.4263 London low, retesting the breakout just past the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg. Price is back below EMA20 and just under EMA50, with RSI(14) near 37 and the pullback line capping at the 1.4282 lower high.
Support: 1.4263, 1.4250
Resistance: 1.4282, 1.4293
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4263 london low fails the retest and exposes the 1.4250 asia base
A close above the 1.4282 lower high breaks the pullback line and reopens the 1.4293 asia high
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Asian break above Friday high now retesting it at the 61.8% fib.
Haven USD demand carried USD/CAD through Friday's 1.4261 high in Asia, peaking at the 1.4293 Asian high before a ~30-pip unwind into London open. Early London is now retesting the Friday high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4270, 1.4278, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4261 Friday high turns the Asian breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4246 Asian low
Recovery above the 1.4270 50% fib and the 1.4278 Asian shelf would put the 1.4293 Asian high back in play
US S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian higher-high chain capped at 1.4293, lower highs since into London open.
A haven USD bid and soft crude carried USDCAD through the 1.4261 friday high to a 1.4293 session high in Asia. The pullback into London open has printed lower highs along a descending line and a 1.4265 london low at the 61.8% fib of the Asian move, with price on the EMA50 and RSI(14) near 42 as the breakout zone gets retested.
Support: 1.4265, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4278, 1.4293
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.4278 shelf low and the descending line revives the Asian advance toward the 1.4293 session high
Acceptance below the 1.4261 friday high turns the Asian breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.4246 asian low
A break of the 1.4265 london low extends the pullback beyond the 61.8% fib
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during NY hours
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after Asia breakout · RSI 39 · price 1.42727
HH to 1.4293, now lower highs into fib zone.
Asia session cleared Friday's 1.4261 prior high, the ~18-month high, on safe-haven USD demand and peaked at the 1.4293 session high. Since then it has carved lower highs back into the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian leg. Price is below the ema20 near 1.4280 into London open, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.4271, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4280, 1.4293
What it said to watch
Holding the 1.4261 prior high keeps the breakout intact as a retest; an M15 close back below it reads as a false break
Loss of the 1.4261 prior high exposes the 1.4246 asia low
Break of the 1.4271 session low opens the 50–61.8% fib zone near 1.4264–1.4270
M15 close above the pullback line and ema20 near 1.4280 puts the 1.4293 session high back in play
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back pre-London · RSI 44 · price 1.42789
Asia breakout above Friday high, flag-like lower-high pullback.
Asia session lifted USDCAD from the 1.4246 Monday open through Friday's 1.4261 prior high to a 1.4293 session high on safe-haven USD demand. Since 04:15 UTC the pair has eased in a flag-like lower-high sequence to a 1.4278 pullback low, back under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44, still holding above the fib 50% retracement of the Asia leg at 1.4270.
Support: 1.42775, 1.42697, 1.4261
Resistance: 1.42865, 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4286 lower high breaks the pullback trendline and puts the 1.4293 session high and 1.4300 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 1.4278 pullback low exposes the fib 50% at 1.4270 and the 1.4261 prior high
Acceptance back below the 1.4261 prior high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
London open in ~30 min and US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after Asia breakout · RSI 58 · price 1.42799
Asia rally broke Friday high; shallow flag pullback holding above it.
The Asia rally from the 1.4246 Monday low broke Friday's 1.4261 high and ran to a 1.4293 session high as safe-haven USD demand pushed USD/CAD to its highest since April 2025. Into the London open, price is drifting in a shallow flag just under EMA20. The 1.4278 pullback low is holding and RSI(14) has cooled to around 58.
Support: 1.4278, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.4278 pullback low opens a retest of the 1.4261 Friday high, the breakout level
A close through the flag top near 1.4282 and the 1.4293 session high brings the 1.4300 round number into play
Loss of 1.4261 would put the breakout at risk of a false break back into Friday's range
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the main USD risk today and could materially shift this read
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.42792
HH/HL chain through Asia, first lower high off 1.4293.
The Asian rally broke the Friday high at 1.4261 on the Yemen-driven USD haven bid. It topped at the 1.4293 Asian high before a 15-pip pullback to the 1.4278 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59 and price sitting on EMA20 into London open. Friday's post-NFP wick to 1.4201 has been fully reversed.
Support: 1.42781, 1.42697, 1.4261
Resistance: 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.4278 pullback low exposes the fib 50% at 1.4270 and a retest of the Friday high at 1.4261
M15 close back below the 1.4261 Friday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 1.4293 Asian high and 1.4300 round number extends the HH chain
London open in ~1h may set the session range away from the Asian range
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above Friday high, shallow pullback holding higher low.
Asia session cleared Friday's prior high at 1.4261 and printed a session high of 1.4293 on haven USD demand tied to Yemen headlines. Price has eased to the 1.4278 swing low, about 32% into the Asia leg fib, and is still holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.4278, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4293 session high and the 1.4300 round number extends the higher-high chain
Break of the 1.4278 swing low exposes the Asia leg fib 50% near 1.4270
A close back below the 1.4261 prior high turns the breakout into a false break, with the sunday low at 1.4246 below
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
Asia HH chain off 1.4246, first pullback from 1.4293.
Asia broke above the friday high at 1.4261 (the ~18-month high) on Yemen-driven USD safe-haven demand, running from the 1.4246 asian low to a 1.4293 session high just shy of the 1.4300 round number. Price has eased to a 1.4278 pullback low ahead of London open, slipping under the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~62.
Support: 1.4278, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4278 pullback low opens the 38.2% fib near 1.4275, then a retest of the 1.4261 friday high
Close above the 1.4293 session high and 1.4300 round number resumes the HH chain
Loss of 1.4261 puts the breakout in false-break territory and brings the 1.4246 asian low back into play
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from Asia high · RSI 64 · price 1.42816
Asia breakout above Friday high, HH/HL chain, now 4-bar pullback.
Late Asia, about 1h45 before London open. Yemen-driven USD safe-haven bids lifted price through the 1.4261 Friday high, a fresh 18-month peak, and on to a 1.4293 Asia high. It has since eased 4 bars back toward the 1.4281 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64. The 1.4274 breakout bar base and the 38.2% fib at ~1.4275 sit just below.
Support: 1.4281, 1.4274, 1.4261
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.4281 pullback low keeps the Asia HH/HL chain intact
Close back below 1.4261 Friday high would mark a false break of the 18-month high
Close above 1.4293 Asia high opens the 1.4300 round number
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain after Asia breakout above Friday high; shallow pullback underway.
Asia session cleared Friday's 1.4261 high on Yemen-driven USD safe-haven demand and printed a session high at 1.4293, a fresh 18-month high. Late Asia, ahead of the London open, price is easing back onto the 1.4281 pullback low, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 1.4281, 1.4261
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4281 pullback low breaks the HL chain and exposes the asia leg fib 50% near 1.4270
Return below the 1.4261 Friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 1.4293 session high and the 1.4300 round number extends the HH sequence
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback off session high · RSI 70 · price 1.42864
HH/HL chain through Asia; Friday high broken, higher low at 1.4281 intact.
The Asia rally on safe-haven USD demand carried USDCAD from 1.4246 through the Friday high at 1.4261 to a session high of 1.4293. RSI(14) has cooled from the low 70s on a 6-pip dip into the London open, with the higher low at 1.4281 still holding.
Support: 1.4281, 1.4275, 1.4261
Resistance: 1.4293, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.4281 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4275, then a retest of the Friday high at 1.4261
Acceptance above the 1.4293 session high and the 1.4300 round number extends the Asia rally
London open in the next few bars is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 79 · price 1.42901
HH/HL chain after break of Friday high.
Asia session ran about 47 pips off the 1.4246 Asian low and cleared the 1.4261 Friday high as safe-haven USD demand overrode the weak NFP. The last pullback held a 1.4281 swing low, and price is now pressing the 1.4293 session high just under the 1.4300 round number, with RSI(14) near 79.
Support: 1.42808, 1.4261, 1.42462
Resistance: 1.42932, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4281 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2% near 1.4275
A slide back below the 1.4261 Friday high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Rejection at the session high or the 1.4300 round number, with RSI near 80, marks the move as stretched
London open is due shortly, and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into the 1.4300 handle · RSI 81 · price 1.42906
Asia HH/HL chain, broke above Friday high; shallow pullback low at 1.4281.
Monday's Asia session climbed from the 1.4246 asia low through the 1.4261 friday high on safe-haven USD demand, setting a session high at 1.4291 just below the 1.4300 round number. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched, and the only pullback so far held at 1.4281. On the fib of the Asia rally, the 38.2% sits near 1.4274.
Support: 1.4281, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4291, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4281 pullback low would break the Asia HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the 1.4261 friday high on a retest negates the breakout read
Acceptance above the 1.4300 round number extends the session high structure into London open
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late Asia · RSI 81 · price 1.4291
Asia breakout above Friday high, higher-low chain intact.
Asia session climbed off the 1.4246 Asian low and broke the 1.4261 Friday high, with the dip to the 1.4281 pullback low bought before a fresh session high at 1.4291, as safe-haven USD demand and softer crude keep CAD heavy. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched with the 1.4300 round number just overhead into the London open.
Support: 1.4281, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4291, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4281 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 1.4261 Friday high marks the breakout as a false break
Rejection at the 1.4300 round number with RSI above 80 points to a fib pullback toward 1.4269–1.4274
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched after Asia breakout · RSI 83 · price 1.42883
Higher highs and higher lows from the 1.4246 Sunday open; Friday high 1.4261 cleared, fresh high 1.4289.
Asia session pushed through the 1.4261 Friday high to a session high at 1.4289. The move came on a safe-haven USD bid and softer crude, extending Friday's post-NFP recovery. RSI(14) near 83 is stretched, and the 1.4281 pullback low is the first intraday pivot beneath price.
Support: 1.42808, 1.4261
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.4281 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain
M15 close back below the 1.4261 Friday high would mark the breakout a false break; the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg sits there
1.4300 round number sits just above the 1.4289 session high
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after Asia breakout · RSI 78 · price 1.42827
HH/HL chain through Asia; shallow pullback from session high.
Monday's Asia session cleared Friday's 1.4261 prior high and ran to a 1.4289 session high on haven USD demand and softer crude, extending the post-NFP recovery. RSI(14) near 78 after the burst, with a first pullback low at 1.42808 holding so far.
Support: 1.42808, 1.4261, 1.42462
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.42808 pullback low opens a test of the 38.2% fib near 1.4273
Close back below the 1.4261 prior high, near the 61.8% fib, reverts the move into Friday's range
M15 close above the 1.4289 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
Asian low at 1.42462 is the floor of the session's rising trendline structure
US S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session breakout above Friday high, HH/HL chain intact.
Asia session pushed through Friday high at 1.4261 and printed a session high of 1.4289, with haven USD demand and softer crude keeping CAD heavy. The 02:45 UTC expansion bar left RSI(14) near 85, and price is pausing just under the 1.4300 round number with no pullback yet.
Support: 1.42742, 1.4261, 1.42462
Resistance: 1.4289, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hold above the breakout bar base at 1.4274 (38.2% of the asia leg fib) keeps the impulse intact; the rising support line sits lower near 1.4266
Return below Friday high 1.4261 (61.8% of the asia leg fib) would mark a false break of the prior range
Session high 1.4289 and the 1.4300 round number are the area to watch for rejection or extension with RSI(14) above 80
Loss of the asian low at 1.4246 would erase the Monday advance
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during NY hours
HH/HL chain through Asia; Friday high 1.4261 broken.
Asia session lifted steadily off the 1.4246 asia low and cleared the 1.4261 friday high, the 18-month peak, with a 12-pip breakout bar printing a 1.42876 session high as USD haven demand and soft crude kept CAD heavy. The rising trendline holds the HL chain, RSI(14) near 86 is stretched, and the 61.8% of the Asian leg fib sits on the friday high.
Support: 1.4274, 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.42876, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.4274 breakout bar base keeps the impulse intact; slipping below shifts focus to the friday high
M15 close back under 1.4261 friday high would mark a false break of the 18-month peak
Acceptance above the 1.42876 session high puts the 1.4300 round number in play
Break of the rising trendline with RSI rolling from 86 points to a deeper retrace of the Asian leg
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 84 · price 1.42743
Asia HH/HL chain, broke above Friday high.
Asia session filled the Sunday gap and broke Friday's 1.4261 prior high, the 18-month peak, with a four-bar push to a 1.4275 session high. Haven USD demand and softer crude are overriding Friday's NFP miss. RSI(14) near 84 is stretched; the 1.4261 prior high sits at the 50% fib of the Asian move, with the asian low at 1.4246 below.
Support: 1.4261, 1.42462
Resistance: 1.42751, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4261 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4246 asian low erases the Asia advance
Session high at 1.4275 is the area to watch for rejection or extension into London open, with the 1.4300 round number above
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into session high · RSI 79 · price 1.42715
Higher-low chain off Asian low, breakout above Friday high.
Asia session has lifted USDCAD off the 1.4246 Asian low in a steady higher-low chain. It has cleared Friday's 1.4261 prior high, the multi-month high, and printed a session high at 1.4273 on haven USD demand and softer crude. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched against a narrow ~3.4-pip ATR.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4254, 1.42462
Resistance: 1.42729, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4261 prior high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the Asian trendline near 1.4254 breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold 1.4246 asian low undoes the whole Asia advance
Extension through the session high puts the 1.4300 round number in view
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into new highs · RSI 75 · price 1.42692
Higher lows through Asia session, break above Friday high.
The Asia session ground higher from the 1.4246 weekly open and cleared Friday's 1.4261 prior high, the multi-month top, to a 1.4271 session high. Haven USD demand and soft crude are behind the move. RSI(14) at ~75 is hot but not extreme, and the post-NFP fib swing from the 1.4201 spike low is fully extended.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4271, 1.4300
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.4261 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the Asia trendline and the 1.4246 weekly open brings the 38.2% post-NFP fib near 1.4244 into play
Acceptance above the 1.4271 session high leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
The London open and US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, extending in early Asia · RSI 76 · price 1.42643
Higher lows from Asia low, Friday high broken.
After a small weekend gap lower, early Asia built higher lows off the 1.4246 Asia low. The Asia leg broke above Friday's 1.4261 high, near the 1.4262 multi-month high, as safe-haven USD demand extended the post-NFP rebound from 1.4201. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme. ATR around 3 pips reflects thin Asian conditions.
Support: 1.4261, 1.4249, 1.4246
Resistance: 1.4264, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.4261 friday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4249 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and the trendline support
Session high at 1.4264 is the first test; the 1.4300 round number is the next marker above
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and crude moves could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Sunday low, retesting friday high.
Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to 1.4201, but the drop was rejected and price rallied into a 1.4250–1.4261 plateau. The Sunday open gapped down to the sunday low at 1.4246, and the Asian session has since printed higher lows off the asia base near 1.4250 on safe-haven USD demand. Price is now pressing the friday high at 1.4261 with RSI(14) near 65 and an ATR of about 3 pips, which points to a quiet, compressed tape.
Support: 1.4250, 1.42462, 1.42227
Resistance: 1.42612, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the friday high at 1.4261/1.4262 would mark a fresh high and put the 1.4300 round number in view
Another stall at 1.4261 would leave a double-top shape against the friday high
Loss of the asia base at 1.4250 breaks the Asia trendline and the higher-low chain, with the sunday low at 1.4246 next
Below 1.4246, the nfp base around 1.4223 is the next structural floor
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia trade · RSI 64 · price 1.42585
Higher lows off the Asia low; testing the Friday high.
The early Asia session filled the small weekend gap back to the 1.4256 fri close. Price is now pressing the 1.4262 fri high from a 1.4246 asia low, with the Asia uptrend line intact. Friday's spike to 1.4201 on the NFP miss fully reversed and later dips held the 1.4224 post-nfp low, so soft crude weighing on CAD outweighed the softer USD. RSI(14) sits mid-60s and ATR is near 3 pips.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 closes above the 1.4262 fri high would mark a break of the multi-month high, with the 1.4300 round number next
A drop back through the 1.4256 fri close and a break of the Asia uptrend line would stall the grind
Loss of the 1.4246 asia low would negate the Monday higher-low sequence and expose the 1.4224 post-nfp low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
Asian higher lows pressing Friday post-NFP range top.
Early Asia session filled the small weekend gap off the 1.4246 asia low. Price is now retesting the 1.4261 friday high (top of the post-NFP rally) on a rising trendline of higher lows, with RSI(14) ~61 and ATR ~3 pips in thin trade. USD/CAD held its post-NFP bid despite the payrolls miss as soft crude kept CAD heavy.
Support: 1.4251, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 friday high breaks the post-NFP range top and opens 1.4300 round number
Loss of the 1.4251 asia pivot breaks the rising trendline
Failure to hold the 1.4246 asia low shifts focus to the 1.4224 nfp base
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC later Monday could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Sunday gap low, pressing Friday's high.
Early Asia session reversed the small Sunday gap lower from the 1.4246 Asia low, reclaimed the 1.4256 Friday close and is now pressing the 1.4261 Friday high, the peak of the post-NFP rally where supply capped price into Friday's close. The climb is a slow chain of Asia rising lows (RSI(14) ~72, ATR near 3 pips), even though the USD tone is soft after the 29K payrolls miss.
Support: 1.4256, 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 Friday high clears the multi-month peak and leaves the 1.4300 round number as the next reference
A break of the Asia rising lows line and a close back below the 1.4256 Friday close reopens the 1.4246 Asia low
Loss of 1.4246 exposes the 1.4224 swing low, near the 61.8% of the NFP rally fib
S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services (14:00 UTC) later Monday could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating under Friday high · RSI 61 · price 1.42582
Asia higher lows after gap fill, capped below 1.4261.
Sunday's 7-pip gap lower has been filled. Asia is printing higher lows off the 1.4246 asian low, and price is pressing the 1.4261 friday high in thin trade (ATR ~3 pips, RSI(14) ~61). Friday's NFP miss spiked the pair to the 1.4201 nfp low, but CAD weakness on soft crude drove a full reversal into the post-NFP rally.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 friday high clears the 1.4262 multi-month mark, with the 1.4300 round number the next reference
Loss of the asia higher lows trendline and the 1.4246 asian low reopens the gap area toward the 1.4224 rally base
Failure at 1.4224 rally base exposes the 50% of the post-nfp rally near 1.4231 and the 1.4201 nfp low
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and crude direction could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, stalling below the high · RSI 58 · price 1.42558
Weekend gap filled; tight Asian range under Friday high.
Friday's NFP miss spiked USDCAD to 1.4201, but the drop was fully rejected. NY then broke out of the 1.4223–1.4237 nfp base to the 1.4261 friday high. Early Asia session opened with a ~10-pip gap down from 1.4256, which has now filled. Price is grinding on a rising Asian trendline from the 1.4246 asian low toward the 1.4258 asian high, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.42462, 1.42383, 1.42227
Resistance: 1.42581, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 friday high puts the 1.4262 multi-month high in play
Loss of the 1.4246 asian low breaks the Asian trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4238
A move back into the 1.4223 nfp base would mark a deeper post-NFP retracement
US ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) later today could materially shift this read
Tight early-Asia range after gap fill, rising intraday lows.
Friday's 29K NFP miss produced a spike to 1.4201 that was fully reversed. CAD stayed heavy on soft crude, and the pair ground up to a 1.4261 Friday high. The Sunday open gapped about 7 pips lower to the 1.4246 open low and has since filled, with early Asia building rising lows inside a 1.4246–1.4257 range capped at the session high.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224
Resistance: 1.4257, 1.4261
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4261 Friday high, near the 1.4262 multi-month high, extends the post-NFP leg
Loss of the 1.4246 open low breaks the Asia rising lows and exposes the 1.4224 post-nfp low
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
Sunday gap lower, tight early-Asia range rising toward the Friday close.
USD/CAD rejected the NFP spike to the 1.4201 nfp low and climbed to the 1.4261 Fri high, with CAD weakness outweighing the soft US payrolls, then held the 1.4250s into the close. The Sunday open gapped about 9 pips lower to the 1.4246 gap low, and early Asia has since put in higher lows along a sunday lows trendline toward the 1.4256 Fri close. RSI(14) is neutral near 52, and the 3.4-pip ATR reflects thin early-week liquidity.
Support: 1.4246, 1.4224, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4256, 1.4261, 1.4300
What it said to watch
A fill of the 1.4256 Fri close gap, followed by an M15 close above the 1.4261 Fri high, would put the 1.4262 multi-month mark in play, with the 1.4300 round number above
A break of the sunday lows trendline and the 1.4246 gap low would expose the 38.2–61.8% fib zone at 1.4238–1.4224, where the break base sits
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, high impact) could materially shift this read; a sub-54 print brings the 1.4201 nfp low back into view