21:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the swing high · RSI 67 · price 1.42558
Higher highs / higher lows since 1.3978; retesting 1.4262 high.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3978 low, riding a rising trendline with price holding above both EMA20 and EMA50. The post-NFP dip to the 1.4201 nfp low held the 50-61.8% zone of the 1.4154-1.4262 fib leg and was fully reversed, as soft crude and wide spreads outweighed the payrolls miss. Price is back at the 1.4262 swing high, and ATR(14) near 27 pips is steady rather than compressing.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 1.4262 swing high confirms trend extension and brings the 1.4300 round number into view
- Second rejection at 1.4262 followed by a close below the 1.4201 nfp low would leave a double top and break the rising trendline
- Loss of the 1.4154 swing low ends the higher-low sequence in place since mid-month
- ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
- Canada Sept LFS Fri Oct 9 12:30 UTC is the main CAD-side risk to the trend