Higher lows since Friday's 1.3941 low inside lower highs from Thursday's 1.4014.
Wednesday's BoC hike and the Fed hold drove the slide from 1.4068 to below 1.40, and Friday printed the 1.3941 week low. On Monday, softer USD offset the oil drop. Two dips to the 1.3950 mon lows held, one in London and one during NY hours, forming a double bottom. Price has since moved back above the ema20 near 1.3978 and is testing the 38.2% retracement of the down-leg near 1.3990, just under the 1.3994 mon high.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3994 mon high and the 1.4000 round number breaks the lower-highs line and opens a test of the 1.4014 thu high
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.3978 puts the 1.3950 mon lows back in focus
A break below the 1.3941 week low cancels the higher-lows read
BoC Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC; midterm results overnight and JOLTS could materially shift this read
1.3941–1.4014 range since Thursday, higher low Monday.
USD/CAD broke below 1.40 into NY hours after Wednesday's Fed decision. That drop ran from the 1.4068 Fed-day high to Friday's 1.3941 week low, driven by BoC hawkishness and a soft USD. Since then the pair has ranged between the week low and the 1.4014 Thursday high. Monday's London dip and the post-ISM drop in the NY session both found demand near the 1.3950 Monday low, a higher low as falling oil weighed on both legs. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3978 with RSI(14) at 55. The late-NY push stalled at the 1.3994 Monday high, just above the 38.2% fib of the Fed-day drop.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 Thu high reclaims the 1.40 handle and breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 1.3950 Monday low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.3941 week low
Rejection at the 1.3994 Monday high keeps the range intact, with the 38.2% fib capping
JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC and Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight into Wednesday could force a break of the 1.3941–1.4014 range
21:02 UTC
Downtrend from Wednesday stalling, rebound from lows · RSI 58 · price 1.39932
Higher lows since Friday's 1.3941 low, testing 1.40.
The Wednesday–Friday decline from 1.4068 to the 1.3941 friday low followed the BoC hike and Fed decision, and it has since given way to higher lows. Monday's London and NY dips both held near the 1.3950 monday low, forming a double bottom, and the NY rally that followed lifted price through the 1.3989 neckline and the 38.2% retracement of the decline. Price is now above the ema20 near 1.3980 as oil's slide weighs on CAD and a mixed US data set gave the dollar little lift.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4005, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes above the 1.40 handle and the 50% fib at 1.4005 open the thu high at 1.4014
Slip back below the 1.3989 neckline and ema20 at 1.3980 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the monday low at 1.3950 and the friday low at 1.3941 breaks the higher lows and resumes the downtrend
US midterm results overnight, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3941 swing low, testing 1.3990 range top.
USDCAD fell from Wednesday's 1.4068 high through the BoC hike and Fed decision to Friday's 1.3941 swing low, its lowest since mid-September. Since then lows have stepped higher, and Monday's London-morning dip and the post-ISM drop both held a 1.3950 double bottom (double btm), with WTI's slide offsetting a soft dollar. Price is back above the 1.3976 Friday close and EMA(20), pressing the 1.3992 session high at the 38.2% retrace of the drop; RSI(14) is neutral at 55.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3992, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the 38.2% retrace and opens the path to the 1.4014 Thursday high (thu high)
Rejection at the 1.3992 session high followed by a close back below the 1.3976 fri close and EMA(20) keeps the 1.3950-1.3990 consolidation intact
Failure to hold the 1.3950 double btm breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3941 swing low
US midterm results overnight and Macklem's speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend since FOMC, now basing above week low · RSI 53 · price 1.39811
Lower highs from 1.4014; Monday range 1.3950–1.3989 with higher lows.
The pair broke below 1.40 into the NY session on Oct 28 as the BoC hike and Warsh's patient Fed tone hit together. Since then the H1 chart has printed lower highs, with the 1.4014 post-FOMC high set on Thursday's GDP spike, while Friday's 1.3941 week low has held. Monday's London-open dip and the post-ISM drop both stalled near the 1.3950 day low, a higher low above the week low. Price has recovered to sit just above EMA(20) near 1.3976, below the 1.3989 day high, which also marks the 38.2% retracement of the FOMC drop.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3989 day high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 1.4000 psych level and the 1.4014 post-FOMC high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 day low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.3941 week low
A slip back below EMA(20) at 1.3976 returns price to the middle of Monday's range
Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC, and US midterm results land overnight; either could shift this read
JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC (f/c 7.13M) is the next USD data risk
18:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling into consolidation · RSI 49 · price 1.39771
Lower highs from 1.4068 compressing against higher lows above 1.3941.
The leg down from Wednesday's 1.4068 high broke below the 1.4000 round number after Warsh's less-hawkish FOMC presser. It bottomed at the 1.3941 prior wk low on Friday, and since then price has compressed between lower highs from the 1.4014 thu high and higher lows near the 1.3950 monday low. Monday's NY session high at 1.3989 sits on the 38.2% fib of the move and was rejected after the ISM Manufacturing beat faded on softer details. Price is now back on the ema20 at 1.3973 and pinned at EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 49 and Monday's open gap already filled.
Support: 1.3973, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3989, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3989 monday high and the 38.2% fib breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.4000 round number, with the 1.4014 thu high next
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.3973 would return focus to the range floor
Loss of the higher-lows line and the 1.3950 monday low exposes the 1.3941 prior wk low
Macklem's speech Tue 16:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling into a base · RSI 47 · price 1.39744
Lower highs since Wednesday over a 1.3940–1.3990 floor.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's slide from 1.4068, with the 1.40141 thu high and Monday's 1.39889 monday high capping rebounds. The prior wk low at 1.39414 and Monday's London-session monday low at 1.3950 now form the floor, so the pair is ranging around the 1.39586 weekly open. The NY-session rally to the monday high stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop, and the follow-through slide to 1.3951 was reversed after the US ISM Manufacturing beat; price sits on EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.39586, 1.3950, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39889, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high at 1.3989 breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the round number at 1.4000 and the thu high at 1.4014
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.3950 and then the prior wk low at 1.3941 would extend the lower-low sequence
Repeated H1 closes back below the weekly open at 1.3959 would keep price pinned to the bottom of the range
Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC, US JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC and midterm results overnight into Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs since FOMC break of 1.40; tight 1.3950-1.3989 range Monday.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's FOMC-driven break below 1.40. The bounce to the 1.4014 Oct 29 high faded, and the leg ended at Friday's 1.3941 week low, while Monday's gap lower was filled during the Asia session. Price has since rotated inside a 1.3950-1.3989 band, and the NY-session push into the 38.2% fib of the Oct 28-30 decline met rejection as mixed ISM details and sliding crude cross-currented. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.3973 with RSI(14) in the low 40s, and the Monday low at 1.3950 has held twice, extending a short higher-lows sequence off Friday's trough.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3973, 1.3989, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3989 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.4014 Oct 29 high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 Monday low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.3941 week low; a break there extends the downtrend with a fresh lower-low
Reclaim and hold of ema20 near 1.3973 needed to shift the read from range-within-downtrend
Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC and US midterm results overnight into Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.4068 peak; 1.3941–1.3989 consolidation since Friday.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak. The post-FOMC NY session drove the break below 1.40, and as the USD faded, Friday's NY hours set the 1.3941 week low. Since then the pair has compressed in a 1.3941–1.3989 consolidation: Monday opened with a gap lower, London dipped to the 1.3952 monday low, and the rebound met rejection at the monday high, right at the 38.2% fib of the week's decline. Price has slipped back under the EMA(20) at 1.3971 and the EMA(50) into the ISM print, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.39518, 1.39414, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.39714, 1.39889, 1.40141
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 could break the 1.3941–1.3989 consolidation
H1 close below the 1.3941 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.3900 round number
Loss of the higher lows line from Friday's low, near 1.3956, undercuts the monday low floor
Acceptance above the monday high and the 38.2% fib invalidates the lower highs read and reopens the 1.4014 thu high
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.3971 would neutralise today's late-session fade
US midterms and Macklem (Tue 16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling into a range · RSI 57 · price 1.39831
Lower highs from 1.4068, now ranging 1.3941–1.3989 with a higher low.
USDCAD broke below 1.4000 after Wednesday's FOMC press conference and set lower highs into Friday's 1.3941 low during NY hours, but has since ranged 1.3941–1.3989. Monday opened with a bearish gap to the 1.3959 weekly open, and the London-session dip to the 1.3950 Monday low printed a higher low. The rebound into the NY open has lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 57. Price is pressing the range top, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the 1.4068–1.3941 decline, as softer USD on Iran diplomacy hopes outweighs weaker oil.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39499, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39889, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3989 range top and 38.2% fib breaks the range, opening the path to 1.4000 psych and the 1.4014 swing high
A slip back below the 1.3959 weekly open and the 1.3950 Monday low breaks the higher-low line; a close under the 1.3941 Friday low resumes the downtrend
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC and US midterm results Tue/Wed are the next event risks for the range
Lower highs from 1.4068, first higher low at 1.3950, basing near 1.3941-1.3987.
USDCAD has printed lower highs from 1.4068 since Wednesday's Fed-driven NY sell-off, on a less-hawkish Fed and a softer dollar. Thursday's lower high at 1.4014 was rejected, and Friday's NY session set the week low at 1.3941. Monday's bearish gap opened at the weekly open of 1.3959, and the London open dip held a higher day low at 1.3950; price now sits between EMA(20) and EMA(50) around 1.3973-1.3977, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and the Asian high at 1.3987 just under the 38.2% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Asian high at 1.3987 and the 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4000 round number next
Failure to hold the day low at 1.3950 and the week low at 1.3941 would confirm a fresh lower low and void the higher-low read
US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Macklem's speech and the US midterms on Tuesday are two-way risk around the 1.4000 round number
A reclaim of the 1.4014 lower high would negate the week's downtrend structure
Lower highs from 1.4068; higher low at 1.3950 Monday.
The slide from Wednesday's 1.4068 high accelerated through 1.40 after the BoC hike and Warsh's press conference, bottoming at the 1.3941 friday low after Canada's flat GDP print. Monday opened on a bearish gap near 1.3959 as Iran-diplomacy hopes weighed on USD. The London-session dip then held the 1.3950 monday low for a higher low, and price has recovered back above the ema20 near 1.3972 with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s. Sliding crude is limiting CAD follow-through, and the rebound is now pressing the falling trendline just below the 1.3987 monday high, near the 38.2% fib retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 1.3972, 1.39499, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3987 monday high and the falling trendline opens the 1.4000 round number, with the thu high at 1.4014 above
Failure to hold the 1.3950 monday low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.3941 friday low
Repeated closes back below the ema20 near 1.3972 would return the read to range-bound basing
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the next CAD-side catalyst
Lower highs from Wed peak; higher low held Monday.
USD/CAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak. The BoC hike and the fading oil and safe-haven USD premium drove the break below 1.40, and Thursday's 1.4014 lower high capped the rebound. Friday's NY session set the week low at 1.3941. This week opened with a gap lower at the 1.3959 weekly open. The Asian bounce stalled at 1.3987, just shy of the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Fri decline, and the London open drop found demand at the 1.3950 Monday low, a higher low above Friday. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 1.3970, with RSI(14) around 48 and the selling momentum flattening.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39499, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.39869, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3987 Monday high and the 38.2% retracement near 1.3990 breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens 1.4014
Loss of the 1.3959 weekly open puts the 1.3950 Monday low and the higher-low line in play
Failure to hold the 1.3941 week low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3900/1.3920 zone
Rejection again at EMA(20) near 1.3970 keeps the Wed-Fri decline structure intact
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) today, then Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.4068; Monday bounce capped under 38.2% fib.
Lower highs have stacked since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak. The BoC-hike and Fed-day spikes both faded, and Thursday's NY push above 1.40 stalled at 1.4014 before the pair printed the 1.3941 friday low. Monday's gap-down open was retraced in Asia to the 1.3987 monday high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, before London open sent price back below the weekly open and the ema20 as broad USD softness on Iran diplomacy weighed. RSI(14) near 45 stays under the midline, with the 1.3900 round number the next marker below the week's lows.
Support: 1.3941, 1.3900
Resistance: 1.3959, 1.3969, 1.3987
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3941 friday low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.3900 round number
Recovery above the 1.3987 monday high and the 38.2% fib would break the lower-high sequence
Holding back above the weekly open and ema20 at 1.3959–1.3969 would neutralise the London-open rejection
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read, with Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC next
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; Monday gap-fill bounce capped below the 38.2% fib.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 high. The BoC hike and Wednesday's NY session selloff drove the break below 1.40, and Friday's NY session marked the week low at 1.3941. Monday's gap lower was filled in the Asia session, but the rebound stalled at 1.3987, just under the 38.2% fib and the lower-highs trendline. Price now sits on the EMA20 near 1.3973 with RSI(14) flat around 51, as broad USD softness on Iran-diplomacy hopes is offset by easing oil limiting CAD follow-through.
Support: 1.3973, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3987 (38.2% fib) and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read; the 1.4000 round number and 1.4014 thu high sit above
Loss of the 1.3958 gap low exposes the 1.3941 week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoC Gov. Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the key CAD event risk for the structure
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.4068 peak; Monday gap filled, testing 38.2% retracement.
The week's dominant leg was the slide from Wednesday's 1.4068 high to Friday's 1.3941 week low. The Fed-driven break below 1.40 came in Wednesday's late NY session, and each NY session since printed a lower high, including Thursday's GDP spike capped at the 1.4014 thu high. Monday's bearish gap to the 1.3958 weekly open was filled during the Asia session as lower oil weighed on CAD, lifting price above the lower-highs line and EMA(20) near 1.3974 to a 1.3987 monday high, just under the 38.2% retracement of the week decline. With RSI(14) at 56 and price pinned at EMA(50), the move so far reads as a corrective bounce inside the downtrend.
Support: 1.3974, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 thu high breaks the week's lower-high sequence
Failure back below ema20 and the 1.3958 weekly open re-exposes the 1.3941 week low
Rejection at the 1.3987 monday high / 38.2% of the week decline keeps the bounce corrective
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
BoC Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the next CAD-specific risk
Lower highs from 1.4068 into a 1.3941 swing low; Monday gap filled.
The week's dominant legs came in NY hours. Wednesday's BoC hike and Fed presser broke the pair below the 1.4000 round number from the 1.4068 high, and Friday's session extended to a 1.3941 swing low despite the stalled Canadian GDP print. Lower highs capped each bounce, including Thursday's GDP-driven spike to the 1.4014 thu high. The Asia session opened with a gap down to the 1.3958 weekly open, then retraced above Friday's close to a 1.3987 Monday high, just under the 38.2% retracement of the week drop near 1.3990, with RSI(14) recovering to ~60 above EMA(20).
Support: 1.3976, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3987, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3987 monday high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and puts 1.4000 back in play
Loss of the friday close at 1.3976 and the weekly open at 1.3958 returns focus to the 1.3941 swing low
Canada Manufacturing PMI 14:30 UTC and US ISM 15:00 UTC today could shift the read
BoC Gov. Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC is the main CAD event risk for the 1.4000 level
05:03 UTC
Downtrend from midweek high, rebounding off week low · RSI 58 · price 1.3983
Lower highs since Wednesday; Monday gap filled, price back above wedge top.
USDCAD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.4068 peak. The BoC hike and the Fed presser pushed it through 1.40 in the NY session, Thursday's post-GDP bounce was capped at 1.4014, and Friday's NY hours set a week low at 1.3941. Monday's gap lower to 1.3959 was filled in the Asian session as softer oil weighed on CAD, lifting price back above the Friday close, EMA(20) near 1.3972 and the falling wedge top. Price is now pressing EMA(50) near 1.3981 with RSI(14) at 58, just under the 38.2% fib of the week's decline at 1.3990.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3959, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 1.3990 and the 1.4000 round number opens the path to Thursday's 1.4014 high
H1 close back below the 1.3976 Friday close and EMA(20) re-exposes the 1.3959 Monday open gap
Failure at the 1.3941 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and negates the wedge-top break
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Macklem's speech Tue 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.4068 week high; Monday gap filled, price at the 38.2% retracement.
USDCAD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high. The break below 1.40 came during NY hours after the BoC hike and the hawkish Fed presser, and Friday's NY session extended the decline to a 1.3941 week low. Monday's downside gap was filled in the Asia session, lifting price back above EMA(20) near 1.3971 and EMA(50) near 1.3979 and into the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday drop just below 1.3990, with RSI(14) at 55 and the 1.3987 session high capping the bounce so far.
Support: 1.39712, 1.39579, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39869, 1.4000, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number and Thursday's 1.4014 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Slip back below ema20 at 1.3971 and the Monday low at 1.3958 reopens the 1.3941 week low
Canada manufacturing PMI (14:30 UTC) and US ISM Mfg PMI (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the next high-impact CAD risk
Lower highs since Wed, falling wedge; upper line broken Fri close.
Lower highs have formed since Wednesday's 1.4068 week high. The pair broke through 1.40 in Wednesday's NY session around the BoC and Fed, then printed a 1.3941 week low in Friday's NY hours as USD slid with yields. A push above the lower-highs line late Friday was followed by Monday's Asia gap down to 1.3958, and that gap has already filled. Price sits at 1.3983, above the EMA(20) near 1.3970 and just over EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 55. The 38.2% fib of the week drop at 1.3990 lines up with Friday's early highs as the next cap, while the wedge base slopes below the week low.
Support: 1.3970, 1.3958, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3990, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3990 extends the wedge break toward the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 thu high
Close back below the ema20 at 1.3970 and the 1.3958 gap low reopens the 1.3941 week low and the wedge base
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC is the main CAD event risk for the structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; corrective rebound off week low.
The week's dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when USDCAD slid from the 1.4068 high through 1.40 as the post-FOMC USD pullback met a firm CAD backed by oil and the BoC hike. Thursday's GDP-driven bounce stalled at the 1.4014 thu high, and Friday's NY session printed a 1.3941 week low before recovering into a 1.3979 friday high. Monday's Asia session opened on a gap down at the 1.3959 weekly open and has been filling it. Price now sits back above ema20 near 1.3967 but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3959, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3979 friday high and the 38.2% retracement near 1.3990 would challenge the lower-high sequence, with the 1.4000 round number next
Failure to hold ema20 and the 1.3959 weekly open would put the 1.3941 week low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift USD tone during NY hours
BoC Governor Macklem Tue 16:00 UTC; a walk-back on hike pricing would test the 1.4000-1.4014 thu high zone
Lower highs from 1.4068; Monday gap lower into EMA(20).
The Wednesday-Friday decline started at the 1.4068 high. The pair broke below 1.40 during the FOMC session, and Thursday's GDP/PCE bounce stalled at a 1.4014 lower high before Friday's NY session ran to a 1.3941 prior wk low, with firm crude and softer yields weighing on USD. Monday's Asia open gapped about 18 pips below the 1.3976 fri close to a 1.3959 weekly open. Price now sits on EMA(20), below EMA(50) near 1.3978, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
An hourly close above the 1.4000 round number and the lower-highs line breaks the downtrend sequence; the 1.4014 lower high is the next reference
A fill of the gap back to the 1.3976 fri close would leave the weekly open as the session base
Failure to hold the 1.3941 prior wk low extends the lower-low sequence and the Wednesday-Friday decline
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Tuesday 16:00 UTC; a cautious tone challenges the CAD-led decline
Lower highs from 1.4068; week low 1.3941, Monday gap partly filled.
Each session since Wednesday's 1.4068 high has printed a lower high. The slide accelerated after the BoC hike and FOMC on Wednesday and capped the GDP spike at the 1.4014 thu high, with firm oil and softer US yields keeping CAD bid. The NY session on Friday swept to a 1.3941 week low before recovering to the 1.3979 friday high into the close. Monday opened with a gap down at the 1.3959 weekly open, and price has partly filled it while holding just above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.3965, 1.3959, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3990, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3979 friday high and the 1.3990 fib 38.2 retracement would challenge the lower-highs read toward 1.4000 and the 1.4014 thu high
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 1.3959 weekly open would put the 1.3941 week low back in play
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC, f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
BoC Governor Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC; a cautious tone on December hikes could reverse the CAD leg