Twin lows at 1.3950, break above 1.3996 range top, now testing the prior high.
USDCAD rotated inside 1.3950–1.3996 from Monday into early Tuesday, and twin lows at 1.3950 held during the London sessions. Tuesday's NY session then drove a ~60-pip lift as the JOLTS beat firmed USD and oil gave back its early gains. That move broke the range top and carried price above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 65. Price is now pressing Thursday's 1.4014 prior high, and the late-session dip back to 1.3996 held as a retest; the 38.2% level of Tuesday's impulse sits near 1.3988, just under the range top.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3996 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 1.4014 prior high opens the path toward the 1.4050 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3950 twin lows exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
US midterm Senate call overnight could materially shift this read
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday could test the breakout
Double low at 1.3950, prior cap cleared, Thursday high next.
USDCAD held a 1.3941–1.4014 range since Thursday. The Friday 7-week low at 1.3941 was followed by a double low at 1.3950 on Monday and in Tuesday's London session. From the London-NY transition Tuesday the pair climbed about 60 pips, helped by the JOLTS and factory orders beats and whipsawing oil, and closed above the 1.3994–1.3996 prior cap and the lower-highs line. Price now sits just under the Thursday high at 1.4014, well above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 65 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3996, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4014 Thursday high extends the range break and clears the week's upper boundary
Slip back below the 1.3996 prior cap would mark the move as a false break and return price to the range
Loss of the 1.3950 double low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight (Senate control) could materially shift this read
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) Wednesday are the next scheduled catalysts
Triple test of 1.3950 weekly low, NY-session reversal through range top.
After Monday's gap-down open, USDCAD rotated in a 1.3950–1.3995 band, with three probes of the 1.3950 weekly low holding through Monday and Tuesday's London session. Tuesday's NY session reversed it. The JOLTS beat and firmer USD lifted the pair about 60 pips through the 1.4000 round number and above the lower-highs line from Thursday. Price now sits above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 69, and Thursday's 1.4014 prior high is the next cap.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3988, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4000 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
Pullback through the ema20 near 1.3988 and the 50% fib of the NY impulse (1.3980) reopens the 1.3950 weekly low
H1 close above the 1.4014 prior high clears the top of this four-day window
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC tonight, then ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Rebounding from range low, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.4003
Break above the Mon–Tue 1.3950–1.3994 range; higher lows since Tuesday's low.
USD/CAD spent Monday and early Tuesday boxed between 1.3950 and the 1.3994 range top. The London-session dip to 1.3950 formed a double bottom with Monday's low, and the rebound ran through the London-NY transition into NY as JOLTS and Factory Orders beat. That rally lifted price through the lower-high line from last Thursday and above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and short of overbought. Today's session high at 1.4005 sits just under last Thursday's prior high at 1.4014, while CAD showed little reaction to Macklem's hawkish testimony.
Support: 1.3994, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4005, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.3994 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.4014 prior high clears this week's structure and leaves the session high behind
A break of the rally trendline from Tuesday's low would signal momentum fading back into the range
A loss of the 1.3950 double bottom exposes the 7-week low at 1.3941
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Range-bound, pressing the 1.4000 range top · RSI 61 · price 1.39996
1.3950–1.4000 range since Sunday open; double low at 1.3950, lower-highs line under test.
USDCAD has held a 1.3950–1.4000 range since Sunday's open near 1.3960. London selling reached the 1.3950 double low on both Monday and Tuesday, and NY hours lifted price back each time. Tuesday's 50-pip rally from that low came as JOLTS and factory orders beat and Macklem's hawkish line faded. It pushed above the lower-highs line from last Thursday and set a 1.4003 week high, but 1.4000 has capped two hourly closes since. Price holds above EMA20 (1.3983) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4003, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4003 week high opens the path to the 1.4014 prior high from last Thursday
A slip back below the ema20 near 1.3983 (38.2% fib of Tuesday's rally) and then the 1.3976 50% level returns price to the middle of the range
A break of the 1.3950 double low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight and Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services could materially shift this read
Flat range floor at 1.3950, failed push through 1.4000.
Since Monday's gap-lower open, USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.3996 range. Demand stepped in at the range floor three times, just above Friday's 1.3941 7-week low. Tuesday's rally began at the London-NY transition and was extended in NY hours by US data beats (JOLTS, Factory Orders), lifting price to a 1.4003 week high despite Macklem's hawkish remarks; it then met rejection back below the 1.4000 psych and the range top. Price sits above the 1.3981 ema20, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday rally, and RSI(14) is near 58 with ATR around 13 pips.
Support: 1.3981, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4003, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4003 week high confirms the triple bottom and opens the 1.4014 prior high
Slip back below the ema20 / 38.2% at 1.3981 returns price to mid-range
Failure to hold the 1.3950 range floor exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
Wed ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) as the next USD catalysts
17:03 UTC
Range, rebounding off 1.3950 base · RSI 56 · price 1.39979
Double bottom at 1.3950 pressing the 1.4000 cap; lower-highs line broken.
After last week's Oct 28–30 drop to the 1.3941 seven-week low, price set a double low at 1.3950 in the Monday and Tuesday London sessions. It then rallied through the London-NY transition on the JOLTS and factory orders beats, outweighing Macklem's hawkish remarks, and cleared the 1.3995 neckline and the lower-highs line to a 1.4003 week high. Price sits above the ema20 near 1.3980 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 56. The 1.4000 round number aligns with the 50% retracement of the Oct 28–30 drop at 1.3997.
Support: 1.3995, 1.3980, 1.3950
Resistance: 1.4003, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4003 week high clears the 1.4000 cap and confirms the double bottom; the 1.4014 prior high is the next reference
Close back below the 1.3995 neckline and the ema20 at 1.3980 returns price to the 1.3950–1.4000 range
Break of the 1.3950 double low exposes the 1.3941 seven-week low
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Sideways, rebounding toward range top · RSI 58 · price 1.39902
1.3950–1.4000 range with a flat base and rising session highs.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.4000 range since Sunday's open. Monday's London and NY dips and Tuesday's late-London dip all met rejection at the 1.3950 range low, above Friday's 1.3941 7wk low and along a line of higher lows. Tuesday's rebound into NY hours, extended by the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats, lifted price back above the EMA(20) near 1.3980 and RSI(14) to ~58, while the 1.3999 week high caps for now; the three holds at 1.3950 form a triple bottom that only completes on a break of 1.4000.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3999, 1.4014, 1.4053
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3999 week high and 1.4000 confirms a range break and opens the path to the 1.4014 prior high and the 1.4053 swing high from 28 Oct
Loss of the ema20 / 38.2% fib of Tuesday's rally near 1.3980 returns price to mid-range
Close below the 1.3950 range low and the 1.3941 7wk low breaks the higher-lows line and voids the triple bottom read
Macklem at 16:00 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ADP and ISM Services on Wednesday are the next USD-side catalysts
15:03 UTC
Range-bound, pressing the range top · RSI 57 · price 1.3990
1.3950–1.3998 weekly range with flat lows and marginally higher highs.
The week opened about 18 pips below Friday's 1.3976 close and has since held a 1.3950–1.3998 range. Demand stepped in at the 1.3950 range floor three times: Monday's London open, Monday's NY session and Tuesday's late London. Tuesday's rally from that floor lifted price back above ema20 (1.3976) to a fresh week high at 1.3998, while CAD's oil-led firmness has kept the pair below 1.4000 so far. RSI(14) has recovered to the high 50s from the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3998, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3998 week high and 1.4000 breaks the range top and confirms the triple bottom, with Thursday's 1.4014 thu high next
Rejection at 1.3998 and a close back below ema20 at 1.3976 returns focus to the 1.3950 range floor
Break below 1.3941 7-week low invalidates the triple bottom read
BoC Macklem speaks at 16:00 UTC; a hawkish or dovish tilt on December hike odds could resolve the range
US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could shift USD and reprice this range overnight
1.3950–1.3996 weekly range; lower highs vs slightly higher lows.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.3996 range since the Sunday open, after the post-FOMC slide below 1.40 bottomed at Friday's 1.3941 swing low. Tuesday's London-session drop on the oil bid was rejected at the 1.3950 week low, a second test after Monday's London low, and fully reversed into the NY open as DXY came off its lows. That lifted price back above EMA(20) near 1.3975, to the 38.2% retracement of the FOMC leg, with RSI(14) at 56. Lower highs from Thursday's 1.4014 prior high still cap rallies, and the 1.3996 week high sits just under the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.3975, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3996 week high and 1.4000 round number breaks the lower-highs trendline and the range top
61.8% of the FOMC leg aligns with the 1.4014 prior high, the next cap above 1.4000
Failure to hold the 1.3950 week low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.3941 swing low
A slip back below EMA(20) near 1.3975 returns price to mid-range
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC
Contracting range 1.3950–1.3996 below lower highs.
The post-BoC decline from Wednesday's 1.4064 high bottomed at the 1.3941 7-week low on Friday, with firmer oil keeping CAD supported, and the pair has since printed lower highs. Since Monday's 1.3959 week open it has been boxed between the 1.3950 range floor and the 1.3996 week high. The floor held on Monday's London and NY dips and again late in Tuesday's London session, before a 30-pip rebound lifted price back to EMA(20) near 1.3972. Price now sits between EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 47, a flat momentum read as the lower-highs line and the rising lows line converge.
Support: 1.3972, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3950 range floor exposes the 1.3941 7-week low; failure there extends the post-BoC decline
Hourly close above the 1.3996 week high and 1.4000 round number breaks the lower-highs line, with the 1.4014 prior high next
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.3972 returns price to the lower half of the range
Macklem at 16:00 UTC and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight could move the pair out of the range
Lower highs since Wednesday; lows holding 1.3941-1.3950.
Since Wednesday's 1.4064 high the pair has printed lower highs, first at Thursday's 1.4014 prior high and then at this week's 1.3994 week high. Monday's NY rebound stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the slide to Friday's 1.3941 7-week low. Price slipped back below the EMA(20) through the Asia session and London today and is retesting the 1.3950 week low that held twice on Monday, as CAD tracks firmer crude on renewed US-Iran hostilities. RSI(14) near 37 sits low in its cycle without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3970, 1.3994, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low exposes the 1.3941 7-week low and the 1.3900-1.3920 zone
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.3970 and the lower-highs line puts the 1.3994 week high back in play
Close above the 1.4014 prior high breaks the lower-high sequence and invalidates the downtrend read
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US midterm results land overnight
Lower highs capping, higher lows above 1.3941, range tightening.
USDCAD has carried lower highs at 1.4014 and the 1.3996 week high since Wednesday's break below 1.40. Lows have firmed from the 1.3941 7-week low to the 1.3950 week low, and Monday's London and NY dips both held there. Today's Asia push stalled just above the fib 38.2 at 1.3988 and slid through London back to the weekly open at 1.3958 as the oil rebound firmed CAD, leaving price below the ema20 near 1.3971 with RSI(14) in the high 30s.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3971, 1.3988, 1.3996
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.3996 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence
BoC Macklem at 16:00 UTC and US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight carry USD safe-haven risk against oil-driven CAD strength
Higher lows from 1.3941 against lower highs from 1.4014, a narrowing 1.3950–1.3996 range.
USD/CAD slid from 1.4064 on Wednesday to a 1.3941 week low in Friday's NY session as oil firmed and the dollar softened. It has since ranged 1.3950–1.3996, with higher lows (the Monday low at 1.3950, then the weekly open at 1.3958 holding on Tuesday) beneath a line of lower highs from Thursday's high at 1.4014. Tuesday's Asia high at 1.3996 was faded through London, leaving price below the ema20 near 1.3976 and the EMA(50), sitting at the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday decline with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 1.3958, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3996, 1.4014
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3996 range top and the lower-highs line puts 1.4000 and Thursday's high at 1.4014 in play
A loss of the higher-lows line and the 1.3950 Monday low exposes the 1.3941 week low; a close below it extends the Wednesday–Friday decline
A reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3976 shifts the read back toward the range top
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC, then the overnight US midterm results, could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Sideways after Oct 28 drop, mild downside lean · RSI 38 · price 1.39645
Contracting range 1.3941–1.4014, lower highs and higher lows.
Since Wednesday's slide through 1.4000, the pair has rotated inside a narrowing band. The thu high at 1.4014 and today's Asia-session week high at 1.3996 form lower highs near the 50% retracement of the Oct 28 drop, while the 1.3941 7-week low and Monday's 1.3950 week low form higher lows. A London-open slip has put price back under the ema20 (1.3975) and just above the 1.3959 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 38, as oil-driven CAD firmness and a restrained USD keep 1.4000 capped.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39499, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.39748, 1.39962, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.3941 7-week low
Recovery through the 1.3996 week high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.4000–1.4014 thu high zone
Failure to hold the 1.3959 weekly open keeps price under the ema20 and tilts the range toward its base
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with midterm results due Wed morning
WTI moves on US-Iran headlines remain the dominant swing factor for CAD
Range 1.3941–1.3996 after the post-BoC selloff; lower highs vs. a short run of higher lows.
The BoC-week selloff from 1.4064 to Friday's low at 1.3941 has given way to a tight range. The rebound from Monday's week low at 1.3950 stalled at the week high of 1.3996 during the Asia session, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that drop and just under the 1.40 handle. Price then faded into London open back below EMA(20) near 1.3976, with RSI(14) at about 41, as crude and a soft USD pulled in opposite directions. Price is now sitting just above the weekly open at 1.3959 and the higher-lows trendline.
Support: 1.3959, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3976, 1.3996, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 week low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3941 Friday low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.3976 and a close through the 1.3996 week high would break the lower-highs line and bring the 1.4014 prior high into view
Macklem at 16:00 UTC today could reprice December BoC odds and move the range edges
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results overnight are USD-side event risk for this read
07:03 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 44 · price 1.39687
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 1.3941–1.4014.
USDCAD has compressed since Thursday's GDP spike to the Oct 29 high at 1.4014. Lower highs at 1.3996 and higher lows off the 1.3941 week low and the 1.3950 Monday low are tightening the range, and Monday's ISM beat was absorbed with London and NY chopping around the 1.3959 weekly open. Asia faded from the 1.3996 range top as crude rebounded toward $95.80, leaving price below EMA(20) near 1.3979, sitting on the Asian low at 1.3967 and the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 1.3967, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3979, 1.3996, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3950 Monday low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.3941 week low in focus
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.3979 and a close through the 1.3996 range top breaks the lower-highs line toward the 1.4014 Oct 29 high
Loss of the 1.3967 Asian low extends the Asia fade back into the lower half of the range
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Iran or Hormuz headlines moving WTI back toward $104 would test the range top via the oil-USD link
1.3941–1.4014 range, lower highs vs higher lows compressing.
Wednesday's BoC hike and the Fed hold drove a 125-pip selloff from 1.4066. The pair has ranged 1.3941–1.4014 since Thursday, with the thu high, Monday's 1.3994 and the Asia high at 1.3996 forming lower highs near the 38.2% retracement of that move. Price has slipped back below the EMA(20) near 1.3980 with RSI(14) around 42 as softer oil and a softer USD offset each other. The monday low at 1.3950 sits above the friday low at 1.3941, so the higher-lows line keeps the range compressing above the week open at 1.3959.
Support: 1.39586, 1.39499, 1.39414
Resistance: 1.3980, 1.39962, 1.40141
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 1.3941 breaks the range floor and the higher-lows line
Failure to hold the week open at 1.3959 exposes the monday low at 1.3950
Reclaim of the EMA(20) and the asia high at 1.3996 breaks the lower-highs line and brings the thu high at 1.4014 into view
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC today, then overnight US midterm results, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows inside a 1.3941–1.4014 band.
USDCAD has compressed into a 1.3941–1.4014 band since Wednesday's post-Fed slide from 1.4068. The Thu high at 1.4014 came on the GDP-driven NY spike, and highs have stepped lower since. Demand stepped in above the 1.3941 week low on Friday and again at the 1.3950 Monday low through London and NY hours. Tuesday's Asia push to 1.3996 met rejection just below the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Fri drop, and price has slipped back under the flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.3981 with RSI(14) at 50, consistent with the digest's offsetting soft-USD and oil crosscurrents.
Support: 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3981, 1.3996, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3996 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression toward 1.4000 and the 1.4014 Thu high
Failure to hold the 1.3950 Monday low exposes the 1.3941 week low; acceptance below it ends the range read
Holding back under the ema20 near 1.3981 keeps rallies capped inside the band
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read; midterm results land overnight
Higher lows off Friday's 1.3941 low, 1.3950–1.3996 range capped below 1.4000.
After the slide from 1.4068 on BoC/FOMC day to Friday's NY-session low at 1.3941, USDCAD has formed higher lows. Both Monday's London and NY dips held near the 1.3950 monday low, and recoveries stalled below the 1.4000 round number, with Tuesday's Asia high at 1.3996 marking the week high. Price is sitting on EMA(20) near 1.3981 and holding above the ema50 around 1.3975, with RSI(14) flat near 52, as oil-led USD swings on Iran headlines keep the pair boxed in.
Support: 1.3975, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3996, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number clears the week high and exposes the 1.4014 thu high, close to the 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri decline
Loss of the ema50 near 1.3975 and the higher lows line returns focus to the 1.3950 monday low
Break below the 1.3941 friday low resumes the lower-low sequence of the downtrend
US midterm results from ~05:00 UTC, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday; price at 38.2% of Wed–Fri decline.
The pair broke below 1.40 after Wednesday's FOMC and extended to a 1.3941 friday low during NY hours, with the digest tying the drop to soft USD and hawkish BoC repricing. Monday's two dips to the 1.3950 monday low held, and the NY-afternoon rally since then has built a higher-low line, with price holding above the ema20 near 1.3983. Price now sits at the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Fri decline (1.3990), just under the 1.4000 round number. RSI(14) is in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3983, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014, 1.4068
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 thu high exposes the 50% fib near 1.4005 and then 1.4068, the wed high
Break of the higher-low line and the ema20 near 1.3983 shifts focus back to the 1.3950 monday low
Failure to hold the 1.3941 friday low resumes the lower-low sequence
Macklem speaks Tue 16:00 UTC; JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results flowing through Wed could materially shift this read
Qeshm/Iran headlines via WTI remain a two-way driver for both legs
Higher lows since Friday's low; lower-high sequence broken above 1.3978.
The slide from 1.4068 after the BoC hike and FOMC stalled at Friday's 1.3941 swing low. Monday's London dip and the NY session spike after ISM both held the 1.3950 monday low, forming a double bottom, with sliding oil on US-Iran diplomacy hopes offsetting the softer USD. The late-NY and Asia session grind has lifted price back above the friday high and EMA(20). It is now pressing the 38.2% fib of the week's drop just under the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) recovered to around 59.
Support: 1.3978, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4000 round number and the 1.4014 prior high would confirm the double bottom and open the 50% fib near 1.4005-1.4050
Slip back below the 1.3978 friday high and EMA(20) would return the read to range-bound basing
Failure to hold the 1.3950 monday low, and then the 1.3941 swing low, would break the higher-lows line and resume the downtrend
US midterms today, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3950–1.3994 range since Friday, flat lows, lower highs.
USD/CAD has held a 1.3950–1.3994 range since Friday, following the post-FOMC slide below 1.40 on Wednesday, and the 1.3941 swing low has gone untested this week. The weekly open at 1.3959 filled back to Friday's prior close at 1.3976 during the Asia session. Dips toward the 1.3950 monday low in London and early NY were rejected, as Iran-driven oil weakness weighed on USD and CAD alike. Price now holds above EMA(20) at roughly the 61.8% retracement of the Thu-Fri drop, just beneath the 1.3994 monday high and the lower-highs line falling from Thursday's 1.4014 thu high.
Support: 1.3976, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3994 monday high and the 1.4000 round number breaks the lower-highs line and the range read
Failure to hold the 1.3950 monday low exposes the 1.3941 swing low and the 1.3900/1.3920 zone
Holding above the 1.3976 prior close keeps price pinned at the 61.8% fib of the Thu-Fri drop
US midterm results, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Macklem at 16:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Post-BoC/FOMC lower highs from 1.4068, base forming at 1.3941-1.3950.
Wednesday's BoC hike and Fed hold pushed the pair through 1.40 in the NY session. The slide extended to a 1.3941 swing low on Friday, with Thursday's spike to the 1.4014 thu high marking the last lower high. Monday's London-open dip and NY-session dip both held the 1.3950 monday low, forming a double bottom. Price has since held above the ema20 into the 1.3994 monday high, which is the neckline and sits near the 38.2% retracement of the post-FOMC drop, with RSI(14) near 58. Sliding oil is weighing on CAD while a softer USD offsets it, leaving the pair choppy just under the 1.4000 round number.
Support: 1.3980, 1.3950, 1.3941
Resistance: 1.3994, 1.4000, 1.4014
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3994 monday high completes the double bottom and opens the 1.4000 round number and 50% fib, then the 1.4014 thu high
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3980 returns price to the 1.3950-1.3994 consolidation
Failure to hold the 1.3950 monday low and the 1.3941 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and resumes the downtrend
A break of the lower-highs line from the 1.4014 thu high shifts structure away from the post-FOMC downtrend
Macklem speech Tue 16:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read